Welcome to the highly anticipated breakdown of “My Guys” in the 2023 NFL Draft!
We are officially less than a week away from the start of the 2023 NFL Draft, so I figured this was a good opportunity to formally plant my flag on some prospects it seems I am higher on than most.
Using my 10-plus years in the football analysis business as my foundation, I've grinded the tape, scrutinized the analytical profiles, and studied player backgrounds to identify those standout prospects.
What sets my analysis apart is my proprietary numeric scoring system, which incorporates a weighted film/traits score, production score, athleticism score, and intangibles score to paint a comprehensive picture of each prospect's potential. These scores help me identify hidden gems who may be underrated by the consensus opinion, but possess the talent and attributes to make a significant impact in the NFL.
And since Fantasy Points is a fantasy site, after all, I’ve initially focused on the skill-position players here to help dynasty fantasy football players.
If you haven’t checked out my 2023 Prospect Guide yet, do so now! All you need to access it is a free Fantasy Points login which you can create by clicking here.
Let's get after it.
2023 NFL Draft Wide Receivers
People seem pretty low on the receiver class in general. While I understand that sentiment at the top of the Draft, I think this receiver group is actually very good and very deep. We probably aren’t getting a Justin Jefferson, but we are going to get a slew of high-level NFL contributors. The value sweet spot for this group is going to be late in round 2 to the middle of round 3 — I gave out 14 day-2 grades but just 3 day-1 grades.
Let's take a look at some of My Guys at the receiver position.
AT Perry, Wake Forest (Big Board #43, WR6)
Perry brings size and length to a rookie receiver class that is lacking in both departments. He plays predominantly on the outside and thrives working along the boundary.
There is no receiver in this class that has a better, more accomplished resume as a deep threat than Perry. He wins with a combination of athleticism, sophisticated release packages, and crisp route running while also showing off elite ball-tracking and body control.
I see glimpses of DJ Chark and Tee Higgins when I watch him.
Time for an AT Perry thread. He is one of “my guys”.
— Brett Whitefield (@BGWhitefield) April 17, 2023
For my money, he’s the most accomplished deep threat in the draft.
Ball tracking is great, so are his ball skills but what pops most is his elite ability to generate separation on verts. #3PlayScouting pic.twitter.com/Ke1nTz22Ep
Perry Skill Summary
Height, weight, speed.
Refined release game and route running
Ball skills and body control
Deceptive RAC ability
Marvin Mims, Oklahoma (Big Board #50, WR7)
For my money, Mims is the best of the bunch when it comes to this enormous class of undersized receivers not projected to go in the first round. I like him significantly more than Josh Downs and Tank Dell, both of whom seem to be getting more hype.
In Mims, teams are getting an electric downfield playmaker who has the raw speed and separation ability you covet in a deep threat, but also the traits to play above the rim and make ridiculous adjustments in the air.
His suddenness as a route runner shows his potential to be special, as he routinely takes CBs in his face “off the dribble.” On top of that, his analytical profile stands out as being elite.
Marvin Mims has the 2nd-best analytics profile of any WR in this class
— Scott Barrett (@ScottBarrettDFB) April 5, 2023
Yes, I double-checked. No, I'm not engagement farming
Speaking only of his analytics profile, he's a historically great prospect worthy of a mid-R1 pick
So yeah, I have no idea why he's not consensus top-75
Mims Skill Summary
Explosive yet smooth athlete
Complete vertical skill set
Sudden route runner with good wiggle
Inside/out versatility
Untapped RAC potential
Tyler Scott, Cincinnati (Big Board #52, WR8)
While A.T. Perry might have the best deep-receiving resume in the draft, Scott is right there with him and might have the most translatable deep speed and deep route running in the class.
The way he can threaten the outside shoulder of opposing CBs is second to none. This poses big-time problems, because Scott can snap off his route in a hurry and virtually disappear into thin air.
The second a CB gets comfortable flipping and running, Scott will vanish by either slamming the brakes or putting his foot in the ground to rip a post across the defender’s face. He is an expert at altering route tempo and disguising his routes.
Scott is a math-changer and will require defenses to commit a second set of eyes on him at all times.
Scott Skill Summary
Competitive, sprinter-level top-gear
Vertical route running prowess
Body control and flexibility
Instinctual chain mover after catch
Jonathan Mingo, Ole Miss (Big Board #61, WR11)
At nearly 6’2” and 220 pounds, Mingo brings exceptional size to the table, something lacking in this receiver class. He uses that size very well at the catch point, where he frames and boxes out opposing defenders.
He is an absolute monster after the catch and most closely resembles another former Ole Miss WR, AJ Brown, from a play-style standpoint. That said, Mingo thrived primarily on RAC opportunities or deep throws and didn’t put out a ton of tape working the intermediate parts of the field.
His route running at Ole Miss was simplistic but effective. He accelerates easily and has great change of direction skills but is also very smooth in his movements. Mingo showed out in Mobile at the Senior Bowl and put out some high-level route running we didn’t get to see on his tape, especially in the red zone.
Mingo Skill Summary
A+ size and athletic profile
Bonafide RAC threat
Untapped potential as a route runner
Strong at the catch point with big strong hands
Alignment versatility, can play X or in the slot
2023 NFL Draft Running Backs
This running back class is 15-18 prospects deep with guys who should contribute at the next level. Standing out in a class this deep is actually pretty hard to do, but there are a couple of guys who move the needle for me compared to their perceived value. I foresee a massive changing of the guard coming at the RB position, with the historically good 2016 and 2017 classes starting to age. In my mind, class stacks up head-to-head with 2017 very well.
Here are My Guys in this RB class.
Tank Bigsby, Auburn (Big Board #85, RB6)
Teams looking for a prospective lead back, or even bell-cow type, beyond Bijan Robinson can find the next best thing in Bigsby.
He checks all three premium traits boxes for a runner with vision, burst, and ability to create beyond his blockers. In fact, you won’t find a running back in this class who is responsible for creating a higher percentage of his own yards than Bigsby.
He also brings size, physicality, and an intensity that is hard to match. He has some of the most violent cuts you will ever see and boasts a nasty stiff arm as well. In the pass game, he shows natural hands and decent polish as a pass-protector.
Bigsby Skill Summary
Big, muscular body with elite athleticism
Top-notch vision, burst, ability to create
Make-you-miss moves in the open field
Physical and aggressive run style
Pass game upside
Israel Abanikanda, Pittsburgh (Big Board #97, RB7)
Izzy brings size and breakaway speed to the table. He is both fast and powerful and will drag defenders after contact.
Abanikanda’s burst is tremendous and basically eliminates the need for a long runway — case in point, he was often used in ridiculous shallow-depth formations where he was a single-back but lined up at FB depth… and looked great doing it.
He has a unique blend of vision and patience and thrives when he has time to use his body language in tight spaces to deceive defenders and get them to peek gaps, subsequently forcing commitment, only to then cut and explode into the now vacated gap. Give him an inch, and he can take a mile.
I expect the draft capital investment to be much higher than the draft community is currently projecting. We have only one example since 2000 of a power-5 back with his production and similar measurables making it to day 3 (Roy Helu, 2011). While Abanikanda is currently carrying a day-3 grade from most analysts, I wouldn’t be shocked if a team dropped a 2nd-round pick on him.
Abanikanda Skill Summary
Size and power
Home-run speed and burst
Patience and vision as a runner
2023 NFL Draft Tight Ends
Saying this is the best tight end class in recent memory is not hyperbole. This class is loaded top to bottom, and like the RB group, it is very hard to stand out if you find yourself somewhere in the middle.
With the way I value and prioritize the pass game, there is one guy who provides teams unique value somewhere in the middle rounds and someone I would be willing to spend a round-3 pick on.
He’s one of my favorite TEs in this class.
Will Mallory, Miami (Big Board #97, TE7)
Mallory has an explosive athletic profile that sets him apart from most of the tight ends in this class. While he isn’t going to give you much in the run game as a blocker, he is a fantastic route runner and has the juice to challenge vertically. He is a true mismatch weapon in the pass game.
His ball skills are on par with Dalton Kincaid’s, and they needed to be, as Mallory had to deal with egregiously bad quarterback play in 2022. He racked up so many high-level catches working through traffic and having to fully extend away from his frame, going the opposite direction of his momentum. It was incredible stuff for a tight end.
Being as twitched-up as he is gives him legit alignment upside, as you can split him wide or run him out of the slot. He looks like a big receiver out there but plays with the intensity of a throwback tight end. He will make a team instantly better in the pass game.
Mallory Skill Summary
Exceptional athlete for the position
Ball skills and fantastic hands
Detailed and explosive route runner
Vertical receiving skill set
Alignment versatility