Baltimore Ravens (4-3, 2-4-1 ATS) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (3-4, 2-5), 8:15 p.m.
Brolley’s Ravens Stats and Trends
Baltimore is 0-3-1 ATS and 4-0 toward unders in its last four games.
The Ravens are 13-5 toward unders in their last 18 road games.
Lamar Jackson’s 16 attempts last week were a career-low in a game he has started and finished. He’s quickly falling out of the top of the MVP race with just four combined TDs and five turnovers in the last four weeks, and he’s topped 16+ just once in that span. Patrick Mahomes is the only QB to score more than 18.0 FP against them this season, but P.J. Walker did throw for two TDs last week.
Mark Andrews has 22+ FP in four of his last six games but a combined 2/15 rushing on seven targets in his other two contests in that span, including a goose egg last week. Andrews got just one limited practice in because of a knee injury and he has a quick turnaround to play on Thursday night. The Buccaneers are allowing the 11th-most FPG (14.1) to TEs but Antoine Winfield (concussion) is likely to miss.
Rashod Bateman returned to the lineup and he found himself still stuck in a part-time role with a 56% snap share — he’s yet to top 66% in five games this season. He finished with 4/42 receiving on five targets while Devin Duvernay paced the WRs with a 66% snap share with 2/42 receiving on three targets. The previously deceased D.J. Moore went for 7/69/1 receiving last week after Chase Claypool crushed them for 7/96/1 the week before.
It didn’t take long for Gus Edwards to get rolling with J.K. Dobbins landing on the IR last week. Edwards posted 16/66/2 rushing (4.1 YPC) in his 2022 debut against the Browns, finishing well ahead of Kenyan Drake (11/5 rushing) and Justice Hill (5/26). He carried the rock on 16 of his 23 snaps (70%), which is unsustainable but still a great sign that he’s their guy in the backfield. Tampa Bay is giving up the sixth-fewest FPG (18.4) to RBs but D’Onta Foreman (15/118 rushing) and Chuba Hubbard (9/63/1) just gashed them last week.
Brolley’s Buccaneers Stats and Trends
Tampa Bay has lost five straight games ATS.
The Bucs have lost four straight home games ATS.
Tampa Bay has played under the total in four straight games.
Tampa Bay has scored 21 or fewer points and they’ve played under the total in six of their first seven games. They’re averaging the seventh-fewest YPP (5.1) and the sixth-fewest PPG (17.7) through seven weeks.
Tom Brady was trending up with 19+ FP and 350+ passing yards in Weeks 4-5, but he’s averaging just 6.0 YPA with just one TD pass in two losses to the lowly Panthers and Steelers in Weeks 6-7. His TD rate has plummeted from 6.2% in his first two seasons with the Buccaneers to just 2.7% through seven games in 2022. The Ravens have allowed just four passing TDs in their five games since Tua Tagovailoa threw for six TDs in Week 2.
Mike Evans bounced back with 9/96 receiving on 15 targets last week, but he arguably cost Tampa Bay a victory when he dropped a 64-yard touchdown on the first drive of the game, which would’ve put Carolina’s bad offense in a negative game script. Either way, he’s posted 80+ receiving yards in three of his last four games since Chris Godwin returned to the lineup. Both Amari Cooper (3/74 receiving) and Donovan Peoples-Jones (6/71) posted 70+ receiving yards in this matchup last week.
Chris Godwin has 6+ catches and 11+ FP in his first four full games this season, and he’s seen 83% of the snaps or better in three of those contests. His YPT has plummeted from 9.2 yards in his first two seasons with Brady to just 6.7 yards as well as his catch rate (77.3%>65.9%) with the Buccaneers’ offense struggling. The Ravens are allowing the sixth-most receptions per game (14.0) to WRs.
Cade Otton has been a low-end TE1 option in the last two games with Cameron Brate out, posting 6/43 receiving on seven targets in Week 5 and 4/64 receiving on five targets in Week 7. The Ravens have allowed 14+ FP to TEs in three straight games, including 7/71 receiving to David Njoku last week.
Leonard Fournette couldn’t get anything going against the Panthers, posting just 8/19 rushing and 2/7 receiving on three targets on a 60% snap share. Rachaad White finished with a backfield-best 6/24 rushing and he added an eight-yard catch on two targets on a 43% snap share. Fournette had a run of 18+ FP in three straight games and he had 5+ catches and 35+ receiving yards in four straight games before last week’s dud. The Ravens are giving up the fifth-most receptions per game (6.3) to RBs, and Nick Chubb went for 16/91/1 rushing in this matchup last week.
Barfield’s Pace and Tendencies
Ravens
Pace: 27th
Plays per game: 26th
Pass: 16th | Run: 17th
Buccaneers
Pace: 12th
Plays per game: 12th
Pass: 3rd | Run: 30th
Pace Points
Ravens-Bucs is a battle of two offenses that have disappointed badly in recent weeks.
Tom Brady and the Bucs issues are multifaceted and their loss against the Panthers this past week was a mixture of terribly timed penalties, dropped passes, and continued issues with their short-yardage run game. Overall, the Bucs’ have scored a TD on just 13% of their 77 possessions this season – the third-lowest rate in the league. Just 26% of the Bucs’ drives have reached the red zone (21st) and they have converted those possessions into a TD just 45% of the time (30th).
I know it’s easy to just scream, “regression!!” in fantasy and look the other way but it really does apply in this situation for Lamar Jackson. In his first three games, Lamar had a stellar but totally unsustainable 11.3% passing TD rate but that has since corrected to a lowly 2.8% over Weeks 4-7. The truth is somewhere in the middle.
Overall, this game certainly has shootout appeal and the total has been rising since open. One thing is for sure – Brady and the Bucs’ will certainly push the pace with their pass game because they can not run the ball. Brady is averaging a ridiculous 47 pass attempts per game over the last five weeks, never dipping below 40 attempts in this span.
