New Orleans Saints (2-4, 2-4 ATS) at Arizona Cardinals (2-4, 3-3), 8:15 p.m.
Brolley’s Saints Stats and Trends
The Saints have played over the total in three straight games and are 4-2 toward overs to open the season.
New Orleans ran for 200+ yards in consecutive games for the first time since 1990, but they finished 1 for 5 in the red zone in their loss. Alvin Kamara is back to full strength in the last two weeks with 42/202 rushing and 12/116 receiving on 15 targets while seeing around 70% of the snaps. The Cardinals are giving up 4.4 YPC and the sixth-fewest rushing yards per game (80.0) to RBs after Kenneth Walker posted 110/1 scrimmage against them last week.
The Saints were reportedly thinking about sticking with Andy Dalton before Week 6 but didn’t play well with his top three WRs out of the lineup against the Bengals. He completed 17/32 passes for 162 yards (5.1 YPA) and a TD in the loss. Jameis Winston dressed last week as an emergency QB and they should turn back to him this week if he’s healthy enough to play. He was averaging a healthy 38.3 pass attempts per game and 286.0 passing YPG through three games. The Cardinals have allowed just one passing TD to QBs over the last four weeks after giving up seven TDs to Patrick Mahomes and Derek Carr in Weeks 1-2.
Chris Olave has been cleared to return from the concussion protocol and the Saints desperately need him with Michael Thomas (toe) and Jarvis Landry (ankle) looking unlikely to play. The Saints will use a rotation of Marquez Callaway (3/36 receiving in Week 6), Tre’Quan Smith (3/43/1), and Keith Kirkwood (1/14) behind him this week. Olave strung together 12+ FP and 4+ catches in four straight games before suffering his concussion on a TD catch against the Seahawks. The Cardinals limited both Tyler Lockett (2/17 receiving) and D.K. Metcalf (2/34) last week.
Taysom Hill predictably came back to earth off of his 9/112/3 rushing performance from Week 5, finishing with 5/39 rushing and 16 passing yards on a 21% snap share. The “tight end” has yet to run more than five routes in a game this season, and he’ll typically be a TD-or-bust fantasy option. The Cardinals have given up the 10th-most rushing TDs per game (6).
Brolley’s Cardinals Stats and Trends
Arizona is 1-7 ATS in its last eight home games.
The Cardinals have played under the total in five straight games.
Kyler Murray has played poorly all season and there’s no bigger disconnect between fantasy and reality than we’re seeing with Murray — Kliff Kingsbury isn’t doing him any favors, either. Murray failed to lead an offensive touchdown against a Seahawks team that had given up 27+ points in four straight games heading into Week 6. He finished with 222 scoreless passing yards but he salvaged his fantasy production with a season-best 10/100 rushing for 16.9 FP. The Saints have been ripped for three TDs and 24+ FP in back-to-back games by Joe Burrow and Geno Smith.
The Cardinals lost Marquise Brown to a foot injury but they’ll at least get DeAndre Hopkins back from suspension this week. They also traded for Robbie Anderson but he’ll have a quick turnaround to get ready and he should be behind A.J. Green for this week. Nuk missed seven games and a postseason contest because of hamstring and MCL injuries in the second half of last season so it’s been a while since he’s been a factor. Hopkins finished as the WR20 with 15.1 FPG, but his eight touchdowns on 64 targets (12.5% rate) covered up his worst season since he had Brock Osweiler throwing him the rock in 2016. He averaged just 4.2 receptions, 6.4 targets, and 57.2 receiving yards per game in 2021 after averaging 6.9 receptions, 10.4 targets, and 89.1 receiving yards per game in 62 contests in 2017-20. At least the Saints won’t have CB Marshon Lattimore (ab) after they got ripped by Ja’Marr Chase for 7/132/2 receiving.
Rondale Moore has moved back into the slot the last two weeks when A.J. Green returned to the lineup in Week 5, and Moore has produced 13/117 receiving on 18 targets in Weeks 5-6. Tyler Boyd caught all six of his targets for 66 yards in this matchup last week.
Zach Ertz just keeps chugging along with 6+ catches and 45+ receiving yards in five straight games since playing through a groin issue in the season opener. Ertz never reached 6+ catches and he topped 45+ yards just once in his four games with Hopkins in the lineup last season. The Saints are allowing the second-fewest FPG (6.7) to TEs and they’ve yet to allow a TE to reach 4+ catches in a game.
James Conner is more on the doubtful side to play after missing last week with a rib injury while Eno Benjamin popped up on the injury report with a foot issue. He handled 87% of the snaps against the Seahawks, but he managed just 15/37 rushing (2.5 YPC) and 3/28 receiving. Keontay Ingram was a distant second in the backfield with 3/7 rushing on a 13% snap share. The Saints are giving up 4.6 YPC and Joe Mixon managed 8/45 rushing and 4/23/1 receiving last week.
Barfield’s Pace and Tendencies
Saints
Pace: 15th
Plays per game: 8th
Pass: 26th | Run: 7th
Cardinals
Pace: 4th
Plays per game: 1st
Pass: 17th | Run: 16th
Pace Points
We’ll see if it’s Jameis Winston or Andy Dalton under center for the Saints, but the overwhelming narrative around this game surrounds the Cardinals offense. They’re top-4 in pace and plays, but that’s only because they’re trailing so much and struggling to score. Arizona has been behind on the scoreboard on an unbelievable 90.3% of their offensive snaps this season.
After putting up three (3!!) points on the Seahawks league-worst defense last week, the only hope here is that DeAndre Hopkins provides a much needed spark. This Saints defense has unraveled, giving up 28, 32, and 30 points scored to the Vikings, Seahawks, and Bengals. I just have no idea if HC Kliff Kingsbury is sharp enough to exploit the Lattimore-less Saints.
Saints-Cardinals is the second-best game in my pace/plays model for Week 7, but that figure is heavily skewed. The Cardinals are running a ton of plays and are pushing the pace – but none of it matters because they can’t score. After opening up against the Chiefs and Raiders in Weeks 1-2, Arizona’s last four games have averaged a combined 34.8 points scored per game. Between the Cardinals inept offense and the Saints QB question-mark, the markets are rightfully skeptical (44 over/under).
