Washington Commanders (1-4, 1-4 ATS) at Chicago Bears (2-3, 2-2-1), 8:15 p.m.
Brolley’s Commanders Stats and Trends
The Commanders have lost four straight games outright and ATS.
Washington hasn’t covered a game in six straight October games.
The Commanders are 5-2 toward unders in their last seven games.
Carson Wentz has ticked off three performances with 22+ FP and 300+ passing yards and two performances with fewer than 10 FP and fewer than 215 passing yards to start the season. Wentz has already absorbed 20 sacks with six fumbles and six INTs, and the Bears are quietly ranked sixth in QB pressure rate at 27.2% This game is also totaled at just 37.5 points so scoring opportunities could be limited.
Terry McLaurin has scored between 12.2 and 16.2 FP in four of his first five games after posting 5/76 receiving on six targets against the Titans. He’s reached 75+ yards in three of his last four games but he’s alarmingly been out-targeted in every game by Curtis Samuel. Justin Jefferson ripped the Bears for 12/154 receiving with CB Jaylon Johnson (quad) missing the game.
Curtis Samuel’s rushing opportunities have dried up the last two weeks after seeing eight carries through three games, but he’s still seen 7+ targets in every game with 6+ catches in 4-of-5 contests. Samuel is averaging just 8.8 YPR and he owns the same 4.5-yard aDOT as TE John Bates through five weeks. K.J. Osborn managed 5/41 receiving out of the slot last week. Slot CB Kyler Gordon has allowed 23 catches on 24 targets in slot coverage through five games.
Dyami Brown stepped into the lineup in Week 5 with Jahan Dotson missing with a hamstring injury. The second-year pro dusted the Titans for two long scores on four targets for a grand total of 2/105/2 receiving for 24.5 FP. He played on just 32% of the snaps behind Cam Sims (59%) so he isn’t the easiest player to trust.
The Commanders outgained the Titans on a per-play basis by 2.7 yards (6.6 to 3.9), but their rushing attack managed just 43 yards on 17 carries (2.5 YPC) even with Brian Robinson added to the mix. This backfield is a complete mess with J.D. McKissic pacing the backfield in snap share (41%) ahead of Antonio Gibson (32%) and B-Rob (29%). Robinson immediately saw six more carries than Gibson (9 to 3) and his workload should continue to grow in future weeks. The Commanders enter as one-point road underdogs in a game with a low total, which bodes better for the likes of Robinson and Gibson. The Bears are allowing a generous 4.7 YPC and the fifth-most rushing YPG (124.4) to RBs.
Brolley’s Bears Stats and Trends
Chicago is 2-5-1 ATS in its last eight home games.
Justin Fields is slowly turning a corner in the last two weeks with a season-best 208 passing yards, and he posted career-highs in passer rating (118.7) and completion percentage (71.4%). He posted a season-high 17.0 FP against the Vikings, completing 15/21 passes for 208 yards (9.9 YPA) and one TD and he added 8/47 rushing. The Commanders are allowing the 11th-most FPG (19.4) to QBs but they limited Ryan Tannehill to 181/1 passing last week.
Darnell Mooney and Cole Kmet are out of the witness protection program with Fields reaching double-digit completions in back-to-back games. Mooney has just five targets in each of the last two weeks but he’s gone for 6/146 receiving (14.6 YPT) on his limited opportunities. Kmet posted season-highs in targets (4), catches (4), and receiving yards (45) last week while running a route on 93% of Fields’ dropbacks. The Commanders are giving up the eighth-fewest FPG (7.8) to TEs, but they’ve been much friendlier to WRs, allowing the fifth-most FPG (41.5) to WRs.
David Montgomery returned to the lineup after a one-week absence and he took back his top spot from Khalil Herbert with a 72% snap share. He’s posted 15+ FP and 80+ scrimmage yards in his last two healthy contests, but he’s averaged fewer than 1.7 YPC in two of his three full contests. The Commanders are allowing 4.0 YPC to RBs with Ezekiel Elliott managing 19/49 rushing and 2/32 receiving against them two weeks ago.
Barfield’s Pace and Tendencies
Commanders
Pace: 7th
Plays per game: 5th
Pass: 12th | Run: 21st
Bears
Pace: 22nd
Plays per game: 32nd
Pass: 32nd | Run: 1st
Pace Points
HC Ron Rivera threw his quarterback Carson Wentz under the bus this week, saying the main reason Washington hasn’t kept up with the Eagles is because of “quarterback.” While that’s cold, it’s the truth. Rivera has no allegiance to Wentz and their trade for him this offseason was a move made from desperation. Wentz has been a bad quarterback for three-straight seasons now. This isn’t a surprise! Washington has scored on just 22.2% of their possessions through five weeks – last in the league.
After Rivera’s comments, this seems like a spot where Washington will try to get their run game going. The Bears run defense hasn’t been good to open the season.
Meanwhile, Justin Fields has looked marginally better in recent weeks – but this is still a dead offense for fantasy outside of David Montgomery. The Bears are averaging 21.2 pass plays per game, which would be 13th-fewest by a team in a single season all-time if the season ended today. This is the first time since 1990 where a team has averaged fewer than 22 pass plays per game.
This is the third-slowest game in my Week 6 model and the total (38 O/U) is tied for the lowest we’ve seen in a game this season.
