Buffalo Bills (8-3, 6-5 ATS) at New England Patriots (6-5, 6-4-1), 8:20 p.m.
Brolley’s Bills Stats and Trends
Buffalo is 1-4 ATS in its last five games.
The Bills are 1-3-1 ATS in its last five road contests.
Buffalo is 5-2-1 ATS in the last eight meetings in this series, including a 3-0-1 run in its last four trips to New England.
The Bills have played under the total in six straight road games.
Josh Allen rebounded from his worst fantasy performance in Week 11 with 253/2 passing and 10/78/1 rushing for 30.9 FP. It was his third performance with 30+ FP and his fifth game accounting for 3+ touchdowns. Kirk Cousins just ripped the Patriots for 299/3 passing and 22.9 FP last week, and Allen accounted for 622/8 passing and 18/130 rushing in his final two games against them last season.
Stefon Diggs kept chugging along with 8/77/1 receiving on 15 targets last week, which gives him 21+ FP in 7-of-11 games. He has 8+ targets, 5+ catches, and 74+ receiving yards in 9-of-11 games and he’s reached 14+ FP in 10 contests. Justin Jefferson managed 9/139/1 receiving on 11 targets in this matchup last week, and Diggs finished with a combined 10/145/1 receiving in the final two games against the Patriots last year.
Gabe Davis has scored just once in his last five games and he’s fallen below 40 receiving yards in three games in that same span. He’s at least caught 4+ passes in three straight games after doing it once in his first seven contests. The Patriots are giving up 13.5 YPR to WRs and Davis managed just 2/41/1 receiving in this matchup in last year’s postseason.
Isaiah McKenzie had been awfully quiet since he scored three TDs in the first four games, but he exploded for 6/96/1 receiving on 10 targets for 22.3 FP against the Lions in Week 12. He also saw a season-high 73% snap share, and his three highest snap shares have come in the last four weeks. McKenzie had his best game as a pro against the Patriots in Week 16 last year, posting 11/125/1 receiving.
Dawson Knox had been trending in the right direction with 9+ FP in four of his last five games in Weeks 6-11, but he saw just two targets against the Lions that he turned into 2/17 receiving. T.J. Hockenson posted 5/43/1 receiving in this matchup last week, and Knox has scored three TDs in his last two games against New England.
Devin Singletary has secured 72% of the snaps or better in eight of his last nine games, but he’s still fallen below double-digit FP in three of his last five games. He’s seen 13+ carries in five of his last six games, and two of his three best rushing performances have come in the last two games with 32/158 rushing (4.9 YPC). Those performances came against the Lions and Browns, and the Patriots will present a much tougher test after limiting Dalvin Cook to 22/42 rushing last week. New England is allowing just 3.9 YPC and the fewest FPG (16.1) to the position.
Brolley’s Patriots Stats and Trends
The Patriots are 6-2 ATS in their last eight games.
New England is 7-3 ATS in its last 10 home contests.
The Patriots are 8-3 toward overs in their last 11 home games.
Rhamondre Stevenson has been locked into a massive role since Damien Harris first picked up an injury in Week 5, and he’s set to be a league-winning option down the stretch if Harris misses additional time with a thigh injury he suffered on Thanksgiving Day. Harris left early in the second half against the Vikings, which paved the way for Stevenson to finish with 9/76 receiving on 10 targets (26% share) and 7/36 rushing on an 82% snap share. Stevenson has 3+ catches in eight of his last nine games and 16+ touches in every game in that span, and he’s totaled double-digit FP as a receiver in five straight contests. D’Andre Swift managed 4/24 receiving on eight targets and Jamaal Williams turned in 18/66/1 rushing in this matchup last week.
Mac Jones is coming off by far his best performance of the season, completing 28/39 passes for 382 yards (9.8 YPA) and two TDs against the Vikings on Thanksgiving Day. He posted a season-best 23.3 FP thanks to his first game with multiple TD passes and he was a slight Hunter Henry bobble away from adding a third score. The Bills have given up 17+ FP to QBs in three straight games, including 240/2 passing for 17.6 FP to Jared Goff last week.
Jakobi Meyers injured his shoulder on New England’s first play of Week 12 and he played sparingly the rest of the way, finishing with 3/62 receiving on four targets (10% share) and a 29% snap share against the Vikings. Meyers said after the game that he was sore but that he’d be fine moving forward, and it was a good sign that he was able to play in key passing situations later in the second half. We’ll still want to keep an eye on his health heading into another Thursday game in Week 13, and his injury could limit the upside of a WR who’s topped 12+ FP just once in his last five games. Nelson Agholor finished with 6/65/1 receiving on eight targets (21% share) as the primary fill-in for Meyers in Week 12. Amon-Ra St. Brown roasted the Bills for 9/122/1 receiving in this matchup last week.
DeVante Parker returned to a near full-time role in Week 12 with an 85% snap share, and he caught all four of his targets (10% share) for a team-high 80 yards in a loss to the Vikings. He’s posted 64+ receiving in three straight games when he’s seen a majority of the snaps. The Patriots are allowing 12.7 YPR and the ninth-most receiving YPG (161.6) to WRs.
Hunter Henry is competing with Jonnu Smith for snaps and targets every week, which limits his upside, but Jones and this passing attack are starting to trend up to give him a chance. He finished with 3/63/1 receiving on five targets and a 71% snap share in a loss to the Vikings in Week 12, and he was a slight bobble away from adding a second touchdown for what would’ve been 22.9 FP. Henry mustered just 2/39 receiving on 10 targets in the final two games against Buffalo last season.
Barfield’s Pace and Tendencies
Bills
Pace: 13th
Plays per game: 10th
Pass: 2nd | Run: 31st
Patriots
Pace: 28th
Plays per game: 27th
Pass: 16th | Run: 17th
Pace Points
Something is still off with Josh Allen – maybe his elbow is still bothering him? – but he still found a way to get there for fantasy last week. Even though Allen hasn’t been up to his usual high standards, the Bills are still sixth in yards gained per drive and second in scoring drives since their Week 7 bye.
Meanwhile, the Patriots are very quietly coming alive offensively. In their two games since the Week 10 bye, Mac Jones looks back to 100% after suffering a brutal high ankle injury at the end of their Week 3 loss to the Ravens. Mostly due to injuries, this Bills defense is not close to the dominant unit it was last year and they’re now down premier pass rusher Von Miller (knee). If the Patriots can stay in rhythm after pushing the Vikings last week, this game certainly has shootout appeal. This is the lowest totaled game the Bills have played in all year (43.5 O/U as of Wednesday afternoon) and I’m not sure that should be the case.
