We spend countless hours each week attempting to identify the peak performers in order to build the optimal lineup/s. It’s a constant attempt at perfection that can lead our patience toward a descent into madness. No matter how we approach the process, game script, injuries, inconsistent targeting, and unreported coaching decisions will always force us into that cat-and-mouse trajectory. While it’s far from a foolproof tool, the purpose of this study is an anticipative projection of the optimal matchups for key offensive skill players. To accomplish this task, the first step of the painstaking process was accomplished during the 2021 season, reading and collecting the coverage shell data for every play from all 32 defensives.
The next step is accounting for the replacement of 12 of the 32 defensive coordinators (DC) from last season (38%). Three of those vacancies were filled by coaches that have already been on staff for at least three seasons. No scheme changes for those teams are expected at this time. For the other nine, a study into the background influences that paved their path to the DC role determined the defenses' shell expectations for the 2022 season.
A spreadsheet was constructed listing the shell percentages for Cover 1, 2, 3, 4, 6, total Man, and total Zone from each defense that each offense will face on their respective ‘22 schedules. A formula determined the ranking each offense was assigned against each of those schemes. You’ll also notice schedule difficulty rankings for each offense that are provided for the overall schedule, fantasy playoff schedule, and the schedule of passing defenses each passing offense will face.
The final sequence of steps in the process was to compile a chart of the top ‘22 coverage matchups for every key fantasy contributor. The top-three coverage schemes were selected from each individual’s profile that they have found the most success against during the last one to three seasons. For the key incoming rookies, that coverage success was taken from their collegiate profiles.
For a matchup to be considered positive, the combined percentage of those three schemes selected from that individual’s profile must exceed the combined NFL average percentage for each scheme. The resulting positive matchups are provided in charted form below. The players that had the most selected beneficial matchups from the schedule are listed for each team.
If any of that is unclear, allow me to simplify the deal by stating that the charts below show the best matchups each featured player will face this upcoming season. That’s all of the reading required, as we’ll allow the numbers to tell us everything we need to know. Let’s dive into the statistical goodness from the NFC.
Arizona Cardinals
Overall Estimated Ranks for the Coverage Schemes the Passing Offense will Face in 2022:
Cover 1 = 26th-most
Cover 2 = 17th
Cover 3 = 17th
Cover 4 = 14th
Cover 6 = 1st
Man = 15th
Zone = 19th
Schedule Difficulty:
- Overall = 3rd-most difficult
- Fantasy Playoffs = 17th-easiest
- Passing Defenses = 9th-most difficult
Player Benefiting Most from ‘22 Schedule:
Notable Matchups for Key Players:
Atlanta Falcons
Overall Estimated Ranks for the Coverage Schemes the Passing Offense will Face in ‘22:
Cover 1 = 20th-most
Cover 2 = 24th
Cover 3 = 10th
Cover 4 = 2nd
Cover 6 = 17th
Man = 5th
Zone = 24th
Schedule Difficulty:
- Overall = The most difficult
- Fantasy Playoffs = 6th-most difficult
- Passing Defenses = 6th-most difficult
Player Benefiting Most from ‘22 Schedule:
Notable Matchups for Key Players:
Carolina Panthers
Overall Estimated Ranks for the Coverage Schemes the Passing Offense will Face in ‘22:
Cover 1 = 30th-most
Cover 2 = 1st
Cover 3 = 9th
Cover 4 = 19th
Cover 6 = 20th
Man = 28th
Zone = 3rd
Schedule Difficulty:
- Overall = 8th-most difficult
- Fantasy Playoffs = 5th-easiest
- Passing Defenses = 13th-easiest
Player Benefiting Most from ‘22 Schedule:
Notable Matchups for Key Players:
Chicago Bears
Overall Estimated Ranks for the Coverage Schemes the Passing Offense will Face in ‘22:
- Cover 1 = 4th-most
- Cover 2 = 18th
- Cover 3 = 32nd
- Cover 4 = 12th
- Cover 6 = 8th
- Man = 9th
- Zone = 28th
Schedule Difficulty:
- Overall = 4th-easiest
- Fantasy Playoffs = 5th-most difficult
- Passing Defenses = 10th-easiest
Player Benefiting Most from ‘22 Schedule:
Notable Matchups for Key Players:
Dallas Cowboys
Overall Estimated Ranks for the Coverage Schemes the Passing Offense will Face in ‘22:
Cover 1 = 27th-most
Cover 2 = 7th
Cover 3 = 14th
Cover 4 = 7th
Cover 6 = 14th
Man = 31st
Zone = 2nd
Schedule Difficulty:
- Overall = 14th-easiest
- Fantasy Playoffs = 13th-most difficult
- Passing Defenses = 7th-easiest
Player Benefiting Most from ‘22 Schedule:
Notable Matchups for Key Players:
Detroit Lions
Overall Estimated Ranks for the Coverage Schemes the Passing Offense will Face in ‘22:
Cover 1 = 5th-most
Cover 2 = 28th
Cover 3 = 29th
Cover 4 = 20th
Cover 6 = 5th
Man = 7th
Zone = 25th
Schedule Difficulty:
- Overall = 12th-easiest
- Fantasy Playoffs = 12th-easiest
- Passing Defenses = 14th-most difficult
Player Benefiting Most from ‘22 Schedule:
Notable Matchups for Key Players:
Green Bay Packers
Overall Estimated Ranks for the Coverage Schemes the Passing Offense will Face in ‘22:
- Cover 1 = 8th-most
- Cover 2 = 19th
- Cover 3 = 31st
- Cover 4 = 17th
- Cover 6 = 10th
- Man = 10th
- Zone = 22nd
Schedule Difficulty:
- Overall = 7th-easiest
- Fantasy Playoffs = 13th-easiest
- Passing Defenses = 6th-easiest
Players Benefiting Most from ‘22 Schedule:
Notable Matchups for Key Players:
Los Angeles Rams
Overall Estimated Ranks for the Coverage Schemes the Passing Offense will Face in ‘22:
Cover 1 = 21st-most
Cover 2 = 14th
Cover 3 = 22nd
Cover 4 = 5th
Cover 6 = 12th
Man = 23rd
Zone = 8th
Schedule Difficulty:
- Overall = 4th-most difficult
- Fantasy Playoffs = 3rd-most difficult
- Passing Defenses = The most difficult
Player Benefiting Most from ‘22 Schedule:
Notable Matchups for Key Players:
Minnesota Vikings
Overall Estimated Ranks for the Coverage Schemes the Passing Offense will Face in ‘22:
Cover 1 = 16th-most
Cover 2 = 25th
Cover 3 = 21st
Cover 4 = 9th
Cover 6 = 22nd
Man = 17th
Zone = 16th
Schedule Difficulty:
- Overall = 13th-most difficult
- Fantasy Playoffs = 15th-most difficult
- Passing Defenses = 9th-most difficult
Player Benefiting Most from ‘22 Schedule:
Notable Matchups for Key Players:
New Orleans Saints
Overall Estimated Ranks for the Coverage Schemes the Passing Offense will Face in ‘22:
Cover 1 = 24th-most
Cover 2 = 3rd
Cover 3 = 5th
Cover 4 = 30th
Cover 6 = 18th
Man = 26th
Zone = 9th
Schedule Difficulty:
- Overall = 9th-most difficult
- Fantasy Playoffs = 8th-most difficult
- Passing Defenses = 12th-most difficult
Player Benefiting Most from ‘22 Schedule:
Notable Matchups for Key Players:
New York Giants
Overall Estimated Ranks for the Coverage Schemes the Passing Offense will Face in ‘22:
- Cover 1 = 12th-most
- Cover 2 = 8th
- Cover 3 = 26th
- Cover 4 = 25th
- Cover 6 = 15th
- Man = 19th
- Zone = 14th
Schedule Difficulty:
- Overall = 9th-easiest
- Fantasy Playoffs = 6th-easiest
- Passing Defenses = 3rd-easiest
Player Benefiting Most from ‘22 Schedule:
Notable Matchups for Key Players:
Philadelphia Eagles
Overall Estimated Ranks for the Coverage Schemes the Passing Offense will Face in ‘22:
Cover 1 = 14th-most
Cover 2 = 11th
Cover 3 = 19th
Cover 4 = 15th
Cover 6 = 30th
Man = 16th
Zone = 17th
Schedule Difficulty:
- Overall = 2nd-easiest
- Fantasy Playoffs = 10th-most difficult
- Passing Defenses = 2nd-easiest
Player Benefiting Most from ‘22 Schedule:
Notable Matchups for Key Players:
Seattle Seahawks
Overall Estimated Ranks for the Coverage Schemes the Passing Offense will Face in ‘22:
Cover 1 = 28th-most
Cover 2 = 9th
Cover 3 = 7th
Cover 4 = 26th
Cover 6 = 6th
Man = 27th
Zone = 6th
Schedule Difficulty:
- Overall = 7th-most difficult
- Fantasy Playoffs = 11th-easiest
- Passing Defenses = 5th-most difficult
Player Benefiting Most from ‘22 Schedule:
Notable Matchups for Key Players:
San Francisco 49ers
Overall Estimated Ranks for the Coverage Schemes the Passing Offense will Face in ‘22:
- Cover 1 = 29th-most
- Cover 2 = 26th
- Cover 3 = 13th
- Cover 4 = 1st
- Cover 6 = 11th
- Man = 30th
- Zone = 5th
Schedule Difficulty:
- Overall = 10th-most difficult
- Fantasy Playoffs = 10th-easiest
- Passing Defenses = 14th-easiest
Player Benefiting Most from ‘22 Schedule:
Notable Matchups for Key Players:
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Overall Estimated Ranks for the Coverage Schemes the Passing Offense will Face in ‘22:
- Cover 1 = 15th-most
- Cover 2 = 4th
- Cover 3 = 27th
- Cover 4 = 23rd
- Cover 6 = 21st
- Man = 14th
- Zone = 18th
Schedule Difficulty:
- Overall = 6th-most difficult
- Fantasy Playoffs = 11th-most difficult
- Passing Defenses = 11th-most difficult
Player Benefiting Most from ‘22 Schedule:
Notable Matchups for Key Players:
Washington Commanders
Overall Estimated Ranks for the Coverage Schemes the Passing Offense will Face in ‘22:
Cover 1 = 17th-most
Cover 2 = 5th
Cover 3 = 20th
Cover 4 = 18th
Cover 6 = 26th
Man = 25th
Zone = 13th
Schedule Difficulty:
- Overall = 10th-easiest
- Fantasy Playoffs = 3rd-most difficult
- Passing Defenses = 15th-most difficult
Player Benefiting Most from ‘22 Schedule:
Notable Matchups for Key Players:
