DFS Early Look: Week 11

Week 10 of the NFL regular season just wrapped up, and that means Week 11 is just around the corner. As my readers likely know, DFS is the best version of fantasy football, and since DraftKings and FanDuel have released their Week 11 prices, it’s time to track down the obvious values and best plays.

Here are the plays that jump out to me for Week 11 DFS:

Justin Fields, QB, Chicago Bears (@ ATL)

DraftKings: $7,600 (QB4) | FanDuel: $8,700 (QB3)

Justin Fields is playing like he’s the best QB in fantasy football, averaging 32.9 fantasy points per game and 116.8 rushing YPG over his last four contests – marks that would be 19% and 45% better than the current single-season records among QBs if sustained for an entire season.

So, with Fields playing like the greatest fantasy QB ever, do we think an Atlanta defense that ranks 2nd-worst in schedule-adjusted FPG allowed to opposing QBs (+5.4) and grades out as the NFL’s 2nd-worst pass rush and 8th-worst coverage unit will be able to slow him down? They almost certainly won’t, and we should expect Fields to yet again be the highest-owned QB of the week in a great matchup.

Daniel Jones, QB, New York Giants (VS. DET)

DraftKings: $5,700 (QB9) | FanDuel: $7,800 (QB6)

Jones draws what can only be called the top matchup for QBs – the Lions are allowing the most FPG to opposing QBs (26.8). And that’s been largely due to their vulnerabilities against QB rushing, allowing the 2nd-most rushing yards (372) and the most rushing TDs (4) to opposing QBs.

That’s a great sign for Jones, who is averaging the 5th-most rushing FPG (6.2) of any QB. This will be his best opportunity of the season to smash against a defense that’s allowed at least 24 points to every non-Green Bay offense they’ve faced. And I expect him to be one of the chalkiest QBs of the week.

Saquon Barkley, RB, New York Giants (VS. DET)

DraftKings: $8,900 (RB1) | FanDuel: $9,700 (RB1)

The Lions have allowed the 9th-most FPG (24.3), the 3rd-most YPC (5.3), and the 2nd-most rushing YPG (160.9) to opposing RBs this season. They are grading out as PFF’s 8th-worst rushing defense while allowing the 6th-most schedule-adjusted rushing FPG (+2.2) to opposing RBs this season. In other words, this is the perfect matchup for Saquon Barkley, especially with the Giants listed as 3.0-point favorites. Over his career, Barkley has only ever been a favorite 12 times, and he averages 26.4 DraftKings FPG and 23.1 FanDuel FPG in those contests – roughly a 24% improvement on his baseline.

Expect Barkley to push for the most popular RB option of the Week 11 slate given his incredible talent combined with the plus matchup and the Giants’ status as favorites.

Joe Mixon, RB, Cincinnati Bengals (@ PIT)

DraftKings: $7,400 (RB7) | FanDuel: $9,000 (RB2)

Mixon has the 2nd-best workload of any RB this season (20.5) – 10% better than Saquon Barkley, who is $1,500 more expensive on DraftKings. So, we can pretty easily argue he’s a strong DraftKings value just based on workload alone.

But if there is one thing we know about Mixon, it’s that he’s far better in wins (21.6 FPG) than losses (13.9 FPG) since 2019. Essentially, he’s a consistently high-end RB1 in Bengals’ wins but just a low-end RB2 in losses. So, the Bengals’ 67% implied win probability this week can give Mixon backers confidence that he should be faced with the gamescript needed for a massive performance.

But, Mixon’s gamescript sensitivity this season does appear somewhat negated, as he’s averaged a much-improved 17.3 FPG in losses – largely thanks to his massively expanded receiving role. Just nine games into the 2022 season, Mixon is just 5 targets away from his career high (55) while ranking 4th among all RBs in targets per game. So, Mixon has high-end RB1 upside if the Bengals win, while presenting a much stronger floor than years past thanks to his expanded receiving role. He’s a great play against a Pittsburgh defense that’s been largely neutral against opposing RBs by schedule-adjusted FPG allowed (-0.5).

Devin Singletary, RB, Buffalo Bills (VS. CLE)

DraftKings: $5,800 (RB19) | FanDuel: $6,400 (RB22)

Singletary should still be considered a mid- to high-end RB2 depending on the week. And Week 11 brings a stellar matchup for the veteran RB.

The Browns are allowing the 6th-most schedule-adjusted rushing FPG (+2.2) to opposing RBs, on top of the 2nd-most FPG overall (25.4) and the 6th-most YPC (4.8) while grading as PFF’s worst run defense (36.8).

Singletary has a full monopoly on backfield goal-line usage, recording 86% of backfield goal-line carries for Buffalo this season. So, with the Bills listed as 10.0-point favorites, I would expect ample scoring opportunities for Singletary, which should make him a compelling DFS option at moderate ownership.

Tee Higgins and Tyler Boyd, WRs, Cincinnati Bengals (@ PIT)

The Bengals are without 22% of their targets and 18% of their team XFP without Ja’Marr Chase. That’s going to translate to significantly more target volume, and more scoring opportunities for both Tee Higgins and Tyler Boyd – especially since the Bengals' pass rate over expectation has still stayed well above average (+5.9%) in the team’s two games without Chase.

If we assume that above-average PROE holds, then arguing that Boyd ($6,500) and Higgins ($7,100) are underpriced sans Chase is merely a formality. But what really makes them stand out in Week 11 is their elite matchup.

The Steelers are the 2nd-best overall schedule-adjusted matchup for opposing WRs (+8.5 FPG). More specifically, they are the 6th-best matchup schedule-adjusted for opposing outside WRs (+4.4 FPG) and the 3rd-best matchup schedule-adjusted matchup (+4.2) for opposing slot WRs. I expect the underpriced duo of Boyd and Higgins to absorb significant ownership on their way to a smash performance in Week 11.

Amon-Ra St. Brown, WR, Detroit Lions (@ NYG)

DraftKings: $7,200 (WR8) | FanDuel: $7,800 (WR8)

St. Brown has hit at least 10 targets in 10 of his last 11 healthy games. Cooper Kupp has exceeded 10 targets in just five of his last 11 games. And St. Brown is averaging 11.0 targets per game and 23.3 FPG over his last 11 fully healthy games. For perspective, that’s just 0.2 more targets per game and 0.2 fewer FPG than Cooper Kupp averaged since the start of 2021. So, if Sun God is 99% as productive as Cooper Kupp when healthy, why should he cost 81% of Kupp’s Week 10 DraftKings price? He really shouldn’t – setting up one of the top WR values of Week 11 in a perfectly neutral matchup for opposing slot WRs against New York (-0.1 schedule-adjusted FPG allowed).

Elijah Moore, WR, New York Jets (@ NE)

DraftKings: $4,000 (WR52) | FanDuel: $5,000 (WR67)

It seemed to hover under the radar that Robert Saleh noted Moore would be moved to the slot following the Jets' Week 10 bye. It’s certainly reasonable to question Moore’s upside given the Jets’ rather anemic passing attack combined with his complete removal from the offensive game plan as of late, but he is a natural fit in the slot.

I’m willing to take a shot on Moore in a new role given the Jets’ leading slot WR has averaged 5.9 targets per game and 10.5 XFP/G this season. That’s ~WR50 levels of usage, suggesting modest value for Moore on FanDuel, specifically. But more importantly (pun intended), Moore has averaged 16.3 FPG (WR13) in his seven career games with 6 or more targets. So, even with modest volume (which we would expect if he truly is their full-time slot WR), he could still provide significant value relative to his current price tag, especially playing in his natural position (the slot).

Mark Andrews, TE, Baltimore Ravens (VS. CAR)

DraftKings: $6,800 (TE1) | FanDuel: $7,700 (TE1)

Andrews is at his cheapest price on DraftKings since Week 2, despite averaging 19.1 FPG and 9.5 targets per game in the six games he’s played this season without an injury designation. Among WRs, 19.1 FPG would rank 8th-best, while 9.5 targets per game would rank 10th-best. And yet, Andrews is priced as the WR10 on DraftKings, presenting value before we even acknowledge the massive relative advantage he provides thanks to his TE designation.

He’s simply too cheap in a perfectly neutral matchup with Carolina according to the TE metrics that matter to me, and I’d expect him to be chalk as a result – assuming he suits up, of course.