Note:
I did a (third) full update to this article as of 8/27/21 with updated ADP numbers as of that date. Each player featured has been updated, and for other important changes or updates, I’ll mark them in CAPS with the date listed.
And then, on *9/4/21 *I went in and added any needed updates and reranked my top-75 favorite picks, as of 9/4.**
I started producing this Draft Plan article 20 years ago when readers requested a step-by-step guide that mirrored what I would do in a draft, pick-by-pick. I’d cover various scenarios in terms of how a draft may flow and how I’d react, ideal roster construction, position scarcity, and more.
There was a lot of hand-holding because many readers were new to fantasy, but with people a lot savvier lately, this article has shifted to focus more on which specific players I’m targeting and when. That’s because the actual “plan” in the Draft Plan really hasn’t changed much over the last five to seven years:
- Ideally wait on QB and get value on your pick, at least some value a round or two after the very top options are off the board.
- Load up on as many young, high-quality RBs as you can, especially those who are versatile with their best football still in front of them.
- Invest at least one very early pick on a top WR to anchor your group, but ideally take advantage of the good depth at the position and try to draft some good values.
- Avoid paying a steep price for a top TE, but target a more affordable second-tier option capable of posting Tier 1 numbers.
- When in doubt, focus on high impact with the best player available, regardless of position (which could make me inclined to draft a QB and/or a TE early).
As usual, I’m generally talking about 12-team leagues with this article, and I’m generally talking about PPR leagues.
The Quarterback Plan
Since I started writing this article so long ago, there’s been a shift in how fantasy players are approaching QB, with fewer people grabbing the top one or two options in the first or second round, which has been the norm for about a decade now. But things could be shifting back a bit — I now see more people placing a higher priority on QB, especially in high-stakes drafts, so fewer people are waiting until the later rounds to get their QBs. Even the “experts,” who tend to draft QBs late, are giving the position more love these days. I’ve always been inclined to wait on QB and get some value, yet I’ve also been perfectly willing to take a top second tier guy in the earlier rounds — like I did with Dak Prescott last year — if I’m not loving the non-QB options on the board.
8/27 UPDATE:* I’m still OK with Lamar and Dak, despite some concerns. In Dak’s case, his ADP is down a round due to an Adam Schefter “report.” Schefter told me this week it was not a report — just an opinion — and he’s set to open the season in the starting lineup.*
At the very least, I think it’s time to realize how valuable a top-12 QB can be and how hard it can be to get a comparable guy in the later rounds, especially since the market has adjusted to push running QBs up the board. It’s not as easy to find those values as it was just a couple years ago. So when the RB and TE talent dries up 35-50 picks into a draft, I think it’s more than fine to consider going QB. Sure, you’ll miss out on that great WR2 or WR3, but that position is so deep that it’s easy to address QB early and still form a great WR group.
Last year’s plan hyped up the perfect example of an ideal fantasy pick at the QB position in Josh Allen. Just like you couldn’t ask for any more from your 2018 9th round pick of Patrick Mahomes or your 2019 10th round selection of Lamar Jackson, taking Allen in the 8th or 9th round was money in 2020. That’s what we’re looking for at QB: an absolute steal whose production greatly outpaces expectations and his ADP. I did also push Prescott, and while he wasn’t a steal in the 5th or 6th, he was putting up league-winning numbers before his injury. One player I unfortunately did NOT give love to here last year was Aaron Rodgers, but he was another outstanding example of what you’re looking for at QB: a guy who’s draft position will likely be 40+ spots higher the next season after he seriously outproduces his ADP.
9/4/21 Update: I actually took Josh Allen in my #1 league on 9/2. I did not plan on it, but it’s a 14-teamer and he fell to the late fourth round, so I could not pass on his upside. He looks poised to have another monster season.
When looking for the top candidates this year, one of the first names to consider is Jalen Hurts, but his early post-NFL draft ADP was around 80, so he’s not cheap — he’s the primo example of a guy who would have been a few rounds cheaper in, say, 2018 (like Lamar) but the market has adjusted for. Joe Burrow is a natural choice for me, but he’s coming off that nasty knee injury. Rookies Trevor Lawrence, Justin Fields, Trey Lance should all be high-impact guys. Lawrence is the safest bet, but unless he’s running a lot more than I expect, I think he has the least amount of upside.
But other than five guys listed, I don’t see a QB who jumps out as the best breakout guy, or the best chance to go down as the steal of the draft, so my play is to find the best combination of potential/upside + value. This year, that mostly comes in the 90-100 overall range with three players (listed in order of their ADP):
Jalen Hurts (Phi, 101 ADP) — Dude’s going to run, a lot. If he hits my 21 TD pass projection and plays 14+ games, he will be a top-10 guy for sure. Hurts is still working through a new offense, so it’s not perfect, but based on his showing in the preseason opener on 8/12, I think he’s just a shaky practice player. I’m still in with him as of 8/28, and it helps that his ADP is dropping. Gardner Minshew may be a threat at some point, but you’re drafting Hurts for his upside. If it doesn't happen, move on.
Matthew Stafford (LAR, 94 ADP) — I’m encouraged by the upgrade in environment on all fronts for Stafford moving on to the Rams, but I was incredibly encouraged before the Cam Akers injury, so I’m a little bit less high on Stafford as I was when Akers was set to carry the rushing load. The vibes have been solid this summer, and I like the Sony Michel addition.
Joe Burrow (Cin, 113 ADP) — He’d be my #1 QB target this year if he were healthy, which means he’s still worth my consideration as around the 12th QB off the board, since he’s well on track for Week 1 (as of mid August). I’m really not that worried about his early struggles in camp and in fact the vibes are improving in late August. I’m still in.You have to also draft a solid QB2 like Baker Mayfield. Honestly, Burrow might be best viewed as a “trade for” guy once the season starts.
Stafford, Hurts, and Burrow best fit the bill in terms of potential plus value, but they are not the first QBs I’d be willing to select. Especially since I don’t think any of the three are truly must-haves, I’m willing to grab either one of these two more expensive guys earlier, once the RB talent has fallen off a cliff (4th-6th rounds).
Lamar Jackson (Bal, 54 ADP) — Lamar at a two to three round discount from 2020 is very appealing to me this year, especially if I’m loving my first three or four picks with two high-end RBs already in tow. He may be a COVID risk, but I’m still riding with him as a target — if you don’t love the non-QBs on the board.
Dak Prescott (Dal, 63 ADP) — Just like last year, I’m fine with Dak in the earlier rounds if the talent at RB dried up and I wasn’t thrilled with the receiver options. His health isn’t pristine but he’ll be ready for Week 1, and his ADP is down 12+ spots since the last update.
This means I’m expecting to pass on expensive options in Patrick Mahomes, Josh Allen, and likely Kyler Murray.
8/16 UPDATE: I will say with Murray, though, the vibes are good in Arizona, so we did move him over Dak on 8/13.**
Since I’m targeting Stafford/Hurts/Burrow in that QB10-13 range if I’m not going Dak or Lamar, that also means I’m likely passing on Russell Wilson, Aaron Rodgers, Justin Herbert, and Tom Brady.
8/16 UPDATE: I* am willing to take those players, especially Rodgers or Brady, if they slip a little.*
One player I’m not loving at his ADP is Ryan Tannehill. I’ve always liked and supported him, even when most thought he stunk, but I don’t find myself actively targeting him this year at current price (up by 40-50 spots at least from 2020). Only Lamar has more points-per-dropback over the last two seasons, so it’s a tough call, but I worry about the loss of their OC and Julio Jones missing time and hamstringing their passing game.
In both season-long redraft and best ball leagues, the QBs tend to go off the board at different times in different leagues, so it’s up to you to stay on your toes and keep an eye on your favorite options. Starting around 100 overall, that’s when most teams in a 12-teamer already have their QB1 and may start considering a strong QB2.
I can make a case for a ton of players as QB2s, so you might as well go for upside. Kirk Cousins and Matt Ryan are solid and stable picks, but I’m unexcited. Rookie Trevor Lawrence is probably going to be a stable option, but also has some upside, but he’s also a little pricey.
But with such good depth and the landscape shifting a little in the summer, I’m all about the best ROI on a QB2, and we’re seeing the best options available 150+ picks into a draft. The best options, listed in order of ADP, are:
Justin Fields (Chi, 127 ADP) — Despite not being guaranteed to start to open the season, I wrote as far back as May that I “may actually be the most confident in Fields out of this group,” due largely to his potential as a runner, and his extremely low cost relative to his upside. In a 2-QB league he loses some value because he’s no lock to start Week 1, but he will surely be starting by September’s end. When he does start, I might be inclined to trade away my QB1 for help elsewhere. I think Andy Dalton should start Week 1 against the Rams — and then settle in as the backup. Though Fields’ ADP is going up, it’s still a value relative to his likely production.
Baker Mayfield (Cle, 154 ADP) — I’m in on Baker this year, and no one cares. His ADP has remained the same all summer. He’s had a positive showing thus far, and for the first time in his short career, he opens a season in the same system. And it’s not just any system, it’s a good one with a good HC and playcaller in addition to a great OL and running game. He will need to get TDs, but I’m thinking Baker will ball out this year.
Tua Tagovailoa (Mia, 161 ADP) — He’s no lock, but this looks like a pass-happy team given how they’ve formed their roster (adding two talented WRs and almost ignoring RB), and they have given him a ton to work with in a pivotal season. He’s off to a really good start, and his ADP remains very reasonable in late August.
Ben Roethlisberger (Pit, 172 ADP) — He’s pushing 40 (March 2021) and wasn’t great last year despite a ton of attempts, and it is a new offense with OC Matt Canada, who is a run-heavy guy. But he’s also open to deferring to Big Ben to ensure the veteran is comfortable. Big Ben has looked solid early in camp (although he’s been up and down), the OL isn’t quite in scary-bad shape, and they are loaded at receiver, which has been evident in camp so far. Most encouragingly, Big Ben’s arm looks good, and the vibes all summer have been decent.
Ryan Fitzpatrick (Was, 182 ADP) — He’s been firing the ball well at The Football Team's camp, and they are liking rookie WR Dyami Brown in camp, so with a star WR1 and a nice TE along with some pass-catching RBs, it looks like they have enough in the passing to support strong numbers. It will come down to how well Fitz gets TDs, but Fitz will usually add 2-3 points per game to his totals with his legs. He’s looked solid, connecting nicely with TE Logan Thomas.
Mac Jones (NE, 200 ADP) — I was in on Mac very early this preseason, and I was correct. I would not be shocked if he accounted for 30 TDs. I know that sounds insane and it’s a run-based offense, but it’s within his range of possible outcomes in my opinion.
Zach Wilson (NYJ, 201 ADP) — At the bottom of the barrel, I’ll go with the sexiness of the unknown with the rookie, over guys like Sam Darnold and Jared Goff. He was good in his NFL debut, and while I wager he will be up-and-down, there’s a lot to work with and a lot to like.
I have one last plan at this position and it entails two QB battles and the subsequent lowering of all the ADPs involved. Especially in a superflex/2-QB league, investing two picks on both QBs in the position battle could return beautifully on the minimal investment. The battles are obvious:
- Jimmy Garoppolo/Trey Lance (SF, 246/124 ADP) — However, this plan looks less and less viable with Lance’s ADP soaring. I’m all about the upside, but this approach (or just taking a flyer on Lance) is best utilized if Lance slips a bit. If you can secure a reliable guy for early in the season and Lance at a fair price (maybe a round after his ADP), I’m fine with it.
8/27 UPDATE: I’m out on* Jameis Winston. I liked Taysom Hill *to win the job in an upset, but that didn’t happen. I’d rather pass on Winston with Hill lurking and the vibes bad.
Another low-end, viable option is Sam Darnold (Car, 192 ADP) — I’ve thought about Darnold, and I don’t think anyone can fix his deficiencies, so I’m hoping they can be minimized in the right situation, and this is a pretty good situation. I can’t give him a strong endorsement, even at his low ADP, but we did move him up after his impressive showing on 8/27.
The Running Back Plan
Lately, I’ve been a serious ageist with this position, and I’ve been locked into targeting only young, durable, and versatile players whose best football is (ideally) in front of them. Last year, that approach worked out well and I avoided really underwhelming performers like Todd Gurley, David Johnson, James Conner, and Le’Veon Bell, all with top-40 ADPs. Sure, some young guys underwhelmed, too, but I’d rather wait a month or two into the season to get a young player’s breakout than spend that time watching a washed up guy like Gurley die a slow death.
There’s a really nice group of players who fit the bill and are going off the board in the top-25, and some are great-to-good RB1s with most of them looking like nice RB2s. You’ll be lucky to get a crack at one of them as your RB2 if you’re drafting near the top of Round 1, but in that case you’d enjoy a good start with Christian McCaffrey, Dalvin Cook, or Alvin Kamara.
Ignoring the blatantly-obvious consensus top-10 RBs this year (CMC, Cook, Kamara, Henry, Elliott, Taylor, Barkley, Ekeler), these are my favorites listed in my personal order, with consideration of value and ADP as of 8/27/21.
Aaron Jones (GB, 11 ADP) - I’ve been in on Jones from the moment I did his projection and saw that 60 catches would be easily attainable with Jamaal Williams out of the mix, and now his HOF QB is back. Getting Jones in the second round was pretty nice before Aaron Rodgers announced his return, but his ADP moved into the top-12 in mid-August and has stayed there.
Antonio Gibson (WFT, 14 ADP) — His ADP is up about six spots from July, yet I’m still in. LET ME REPEAT: ALL IN. Gibson was excellent in the running game and good in the passing game, so with more experience and more touches and a larger role in the passing game coming, he’s a lock to come through if healthy. So far, so good, in camp in terms of his toe issue, and he looked good in the preseason games. JD McKissic plays over him on third down, but Gibson will chip away at JD’s hold on that role quickly.
Najee Harris (Pit, 16 ADP) — I’m actually less high on him as I was a month or so ago, but that’s because his ADP is up a little. I’m still willing to take him early in the second round if I want a RB, but ideally he slips to the end of the second, making him a no-brainer. The vibes with him, the OL, Big Ben, etc., have been solid.
Joe Mixon (Cin, 20 ADP) — You know, I’ve thought long and hard about Mixon the last couple of months, and I’ve made a call: I’m back in! He’s so talented and has such a huge role, so he’s a league winner if he can suit up every week behind a healthy Joe Burrow and if his OL is just decent. I know he drives us crazy, and I’ve oversold him in the past, but if he’s to ever come through with a dream season, this year is it. I talked to my guy with the Bengals website on 8/23 and the vibes are good with Mixon.
D’Andre Swift (Det, 33 ADP) — I know there’s bad vibes and risk, but his ADP is likely to land in the fourth round at this point, and at that point I’m still in, as of late August. He’s looking a little better with JK Dobbins out of the mix, since I don’t think Gus Edwards is worth taking over Swift.
Miles Sanders (Phi, 42 ADP) — I'm worried about Sanders, who’s been up-and-down, but his ADP is also dropping and he’s now a fourth-round pick. I’m out on him in the third, but I’m still in on him if it’s the fourth.
James Robinson (Jax, 30 ADP) - I’m just guessing his ADP as of 8/27, and I’m not all in on him. But if he slipped to the fourth round and I had only one RB, I’d take him because he will get the ball even with Carlos Hyde in the mix.
8/29 Update: You can see where we slotted Gus Edwards on our cheat sheet. I’m not loving Gus as a third round pick, and I’m not in love with him in the fourth.
There is a huge drop-off at RB around RB18 at 35-40 overall. You have David Montgomery around that same 35 spot, which is okay at the end of Round 3, but I’d prefer the sexier Sanders a round later. I may easily regret that, but I’m just not that excited about Montgomery, and I still believe Sanders is a high-level traits guy.
Due to this drop-off, I really want to get two of the RBs I mentioned above in the first three rounds. But as I mentioned at the top, I’m more inclined to grab a stud wideout in the first round or the second round than I was in May and June, so I’ve adjusted my look at the RB position from various drafts spots. I still think RB is very, very important again this year, so here’s my updated look as of 8/27.
If you’re drafting 1-4 overall — Well, you’re opening with a RB, right? And on the hook for Rounds 2-3, you should be looking to get another RB and either a top WR or TE. I got burned by George Kittle last year, so I might not go there, so it’s probably a WR for me like Justin Jefferson. 8/29 Update: The loss of JK Dobbins does hurt this plan, though. If I don’t trust the RBs available to me at the top of the third, I may go with Darren Waller if available, and then a stud WR after taking a RB in the first.
If you’re drafting 5-7 overall — This range is still a little too early for you to take a WR with your first pick. However, going by ADP, this is the range where I can sign off on going RB-WR to open a draft. If you’re drafting at 6 overall, you may not love the RBs available in Round 2, like Joe Mixon or Clyde Edwards-Helaire, and I’d have no problem going with a Calvin Ridley, Justin Jefferson, or DeAndre Hopkins in round two, knowing Miles Sanders, often slipping to the fourth, is the worst I can do at RB.
If you’re drafting 8-12 overall — My position on drafting in this range is very simple: if you only have one RB through two rounds, the next best option is David Montgomery, who I’m not in love with as a third-round pick. So if I’m in this range, I’m probably going RB-RB given the way the board shakes out in rounds three and beyond.
I see a massive dropoff at this position after our top-18 guys are off the board. However, if I end up taking only one RB in the first three rounds, I may be inclined to pay up for a RB I don’t love, but one who can lock down solid production for my RB2 spot. The guys I’m targeting in this 30-60 overall range are:
Chris Carson (Sea, 38 ADP) — I’m not particularly keen on him this year, but the guy produces when he plays, and I know I can get Rashaad Penny late (his knee has checked out so far in camp) as an excellent handcuff (and there aren’t many of those elsewhere).
Javonte Williams (Den, 51 ADP) — His ADP is rising, but it’s still in the fifth round as of 8/27, and I’m in on that all day long. I am feeling a big season, and I actually took him at 25 overall on 9/2/21 n a really competitive 14-team league where I have to be overly aggressive with picks.
Kareem Hunt (Cle, 59 ADP) — Hunt wasn’t as active in the passing game as I expected (I had him with 57 grabs, he had only 38), so I’m dubious about his ability to deliver solid value as a fifth-round pick. But if I was fairly desperate for an RB2 with legit potential, I may take Hunt. I do not think he’s worth grabbing in the fifth if I already have two RBs, but his ADP did drop almost 10 spots the last month-plus, which helps his appeal.
This isn’t a bad group, but I don’t see a must-have, other than the rookie Williams for his upside later in the season.
I certainly want solid RB depth, so I’ll be looking for anyone with youth, talent, a large role, etc. who I’m willing to pay for at their asking price (ADP). It’s slim pickings and a mixture of young players with a chance and older players with solid roles, but these are the guys I’m targeting as my RB3 in Rounds 6-9 (60-100 overall). This range of players can likely provide you with an optimal RB3 based on value and potential.
Mike Davis (Atl, 58 ADP) — RBs who fit Davis’ profile — the boring vet with a potentially big role — usually fall short of raised expectations, but the fact is they have no one else of note on the roster. Davis wore down last year, but all in all he did a pretty darn good job filling in for Christian McCaffrey, and he’s really good in the passing game and with protection. His ADP is steady around 60.
Chase Edmonds (Ari, 69 ADP) — Edmonds is not a lead back, but I don’t think James Conner is, either, and if he is, Conner will likely get hurt or wear down. Edmonds was only RB37 in total points last year, but he was also playing behind a better option than Conner in Kenyan Drake, who missed only one game.
Trey Sermon (SF, 70 ADP) — Based on how things have progressed here starting right after Sermon was drafted, I’m very in on Sermon at his ADP. I think they will use him and Raheem Mostert a lot, with Sermon the more active early-down option with more long-term upside in 2021. Sermon has looked good, and Mostert had another injury issue in late August (back). Sermon’s looking goooooood at 73.
Damien Harris (NE, 72 ADP) — With Sony Michel gone and Mac Jones likely starting most of their games, I’m in on Harris. Cam Newton may still vulture TDs, but probably not many.
Sony Michel (LAR, 90 ADP) — I’m guessing his ADP, but I think it’s about right, and I’m in on that. In fact, I’m feeling it. He’s been sneaky good and has not been truly unleashed in the passing game, so if he can find the strength to stay healthy, he’s going to be a nice producer in this offense. ESPN’s Adam Schefter came on my show one hour after breaking the news and intimated that Michel may even be the favorite to lead the backfield in touches.
A.J. Dillon (GB, 98 ADP) — His ceiling may not be great due to his perceived lack of catches, but I’m told that he’s not a bad receiver at all for a bigger back, and he’s a lock for 10 or more touches each week. He could easily be frustrating if he doesn't get TDs, but he’s also a league winner if Aaron Jones goes down. I have a very, very good vibe on Dillon overall, though. I think 25-30 catches are definitely possible, which is big. He’s one of my favorite sleepers/values.
Michael Carter (NYJ, 90 ADP) — His ADP is falling with his playing time and role in question, but I’ll still list him. I have him for only 155 touches, but that could be conservative. I’m only biting if he slips a little, but I’m still technically in. Keep in mind he is more of a second half of the season guy.
Zack Moss (Buf, 102 ADP) — After a solid start, Moss disappointed his rookie 2020 season, but part of that was injury-related, since he had a toe issue that cost him three games. The Bills clearly want and need more production from their running game, yet all they did to improve their situation this offseason is add Matt Breida, who has looked good but is a role player only. Moss will get a real crack at 200+ touches, but his upside may be capped with Devin Singletary still involved and looking good this summer. If Moss’ outlook appeared to be better, his ADP would be higher, so he’s still a decent option with a speck of upside with his ADP falling in late August. He did score a receiving TD from Josh Allen on 8/28.
Around 100 picks into a draft, the way the ADP board has been going this summer, the pickings are extremely thin at RB. So I definitely want 3-4 RBs through the first nine rounds or so. At 100 overall, there are only a handful of good RB options, and they are listed below, but also a ton of good WR options.
Kenyan Drake and James Conner are all going off the board around 100 overall, and they’re okay if you’re in need of a RB to actually produce points for you right away, in the event you go WR heavy and are looking for someone with a large role right out of the gate. But those guys have also been fantasy buzzkills and their best football is behind them.
My favorites from this range are a little more exciting:
Jamaal Williams (Det, 111 ADP) — I’ve liked him all year, but as predicted, his ADP is rising considerably. Newborn babies know that Williams and D’Andre Swift will split up the work for new OC Anthony Lynn and that Lynn loves Williams. He’s a damn good player in line for 13-15 touches a game, and he’s 80+ picks cheaper than Swift, so he’s a no-brainer. Swift’s durability is in question right now, so Williams is looking better and better.
Ty'Son Williams (Bal, 150 ADP) - I’m guessing on the ADP, and it might be 130 in a tough draft room, but this guy absolutely looks like he will hold value now that Justice Hill is done.
Rashaad Penny (Sea, 145 ADP) — He’s healthy, for now, at least. We’re down to the final year of his rookie contract, so 2021 is a good time for Penny to bust out. If healthy, he’ll get 10+ opportunities a game, and he’s arguably in RB1 territory if Chris Carson misses time (again). His ADP is rising, though, up 10+ spots from earlier this month. DeeJay Dallas is also looking like a factor in this backfield.
Phillip Lindsay (Hou, 140 ADP) — I hate to mention a Texan, but based on reports and his utilization in the opener, Lindsay is in line for the bulk of their early-down carries. He should pay off his dirt cheap 140 ADP, for what it’s worth, even if it’s not sexy.
James White (NE, 153 ADP) — I’ve been all in on Mac Jones being their starter for the bulk of their games, at least 12 games, and it’s happening. That’s huge for White, since Jones is already a far superior checkdown QB, so I’ve now flagged White as a sneaky PPR value.
Kenny Gainwell (Phi, 159 ADP) — His ADP has stabilized, and he’s still affordable. He will have a role in the passing game with some upside if there are injuries here. He looked good again in the third game on 8/28.
Even later, 150+ picks into a draft, if I’m still looking for a back, whether it be a key handcuff/stash-and-hope option or a cheap option with a path for touches, I’ll be looking at Darrel Williams (KC), Damien Williams (Chi), Gio Bernard (TB), Alexander Mattison (Min), Carlos Hyde (JAX), and Devontae Booker (NYG). Also, low-end flyers like Ty Johnson (NYJ), Larry Rountree (LAC), and Jaret Patterson (WFT).
The Wide Receiver Plan
Since I’m all about balance, I’m always looking to add some high-end WR options, but I’m also not going to go nuts by drafting three to four WRs the first four to five rounds. Some of our staff may disagree with that approach, but there are many paths to a championship and mine has always been about balance with a strong consideration of positional scarcity — and WR talent is hardly scarce in the NFL. Personally, I’m just not going to be impressed if I have Davante Adams, Stefon Diggs, and Allen Robinson at WR if my RB1 is Chris Carson, or even Josh Jacobs. I’d much rather have Aaron Jones, Antonio Gibson, CeeDee Lamb, and Adam Thielen through four rounds.
One thing that will determine how early I take my first WR is my draft position. As noted above in the RB section, if I’m drafting at the top of Round 1, I’m taking a RB, and then I’m either taking two more RBs in Rounds 2-3 or I’m taking one more and one WR. Since I do want at least one stud WR, going RB-RB-WR or RB-WR-RB is ideal. If I’m drafting at the end of Round 1, I’m unlikely to get a strong RB2 option toward the end of the third round, so I think going RB-RB to open a draft is the way to go. However, if I’m picking in the middle of Round 1, it’s possible that I will determine that a WR in Round 2 is ideal, since I’d likely have a crack at a solid RB2 in Round 3, someone like D’Andre Swift or Miles Sanders.
I’m probably passing on the elite WR1s like Adams, Diggs, and DeAndre Hopkins, so I’ll skip to the WRs going off the board in Round 3. Justin Jefferson and AJ Brown are great options and they may be available at the top of Round 3, but otherwise, here’s who I’m actively targeting 25+ picks into a draft:
Terry McLaurin (Was, 29 ADP) — He finished last year as a WR2 or better (top-24) in 7-of-15 games and had 10+ PPR points in 12 games, and not only is Ryan Fitzpatrick a clear upgrade at QB, he’s a guy who will pepper TMC with targets.
CeeDee Lamb (Dal, 30 ADP) — He’s going off in camp, so as long as Dak Prescott is healthy, hey, I’m in. There’s no way he’ll go down as a bad pick unless injuries occur. Speaking of injuries, there’s a chance Amari Cooper’s ankle injury is a concern all year. It looks like it’s Lamb o’clock. We’ll also have to keep an eye on Dak, of course.
Allen Robinson (Chi, 30 ADP) — With his QB situation improved and a thin WR corps, he should haul in another 100+ balls if healthy. His ADP did rise two spots since 8/7.
Robert Woods (LAR, 35 ADP) — He’s not cheap, nor is he sexy with upside, but Mr. Consistent also gets 100+ yards and a TD rushing at least each year, and his QB upgrade should mean another 90+ catches are a lock.
Based on the talent on the board the first 36 picks, there’s probably an 80% chance I have two RBs and one WR after three rounds. If I don’t, there’s probably a 15% chance I opened my draft going RB-RB-RB. I don’t think much of the RBs going off the board in the 37-48 range (fourth round), so that’s another reason to get two RBs in the first three rounds.
So most likely, I’m looking at a WR in Round 4. I’m not opposed to also considering Mike Evans, Julio Jones, and Cooper Kupp in this round if I have a strong need at WR, but here are my targets:
Any WR highlighted above.
Chris Godwin (TB, 42 ADP) — I love Godwin in general and he had 5+ receptions in 11-of-16 games (including playoffs) last year and his chemistry with Tom Brady will only improve. I don’t find myself drafting him at his ADP, but I’d pounce in the fifth round if I wanted a WR.
Over the next two rounds, I’m passing on about half of the wideouts being drafted in this 50-70 range overall (Rounds 5-6), and targeting these great options:
Diontae Johnson (Pit, 47 ADP) — JuJu returning is a buzzkill, and they won’t pass as much, but Diontae did still average an insane 11.2 targets per game (includes playoffs) last year in his healthy games with JuJu and Chase Claypool on the field a ton.
Adam Thielen (Min, 50 ADP) — He’s once again undervalued this year, even more than he was in 2020, so I’ll take advantage of that often. Thielen wins with route-running and sticky hands, so his age doesn’t worry me, and the Vikings passing game is looking good as long as new LT Christian Darrisaw is on the field (he may not be Week 1 at this point, given his missed time). Thielen’s ADP is up from 8/7, but only a couple of spots.
Ja’Marr Chase (Cin, 55 ADP) — This is a little pricey for a rookie whose QB is coming off a nasty knee injury, but Joe Burrow’s no ordinary QB, and Chase is no ordinary rookie.They have been putting in extra work together after practice, so these two want to be great. Despite shaky reports out of camp, it’s still early, and I still think they both will be great.
Brandon Aiyuk (SF, 55 ADP) — Can’t expect last year’s bonanza, since Aiyuk played in only four games with George Kittle, and Deebo Samuel and Kittle led in targets (40) with Aiyuk and Deebo with only 22 each in those games. Forget about the same volume as last year, but that doesn’t take away from the fact that Aiyuk balled out in year one with a backup QB. His ADP was up 5 spots from 8/7, though.
Chase Claypool (Pit, 63 ADP) — Based on reports I’ve received, I may like Claypool at 63 more than I like Diontae Johnson at 47. Target volume will be a small issue, though. Then again, based on what our guy Adam Caplan observed at Steelers camp 7/30-7/31, Claypool may be a lock for 10+ TDs. His ADP is up 7 spots from 8/7, which isn’t great, but it’s also because people are realizing he’s for real.
It may seem basic, but based on the way the talent stacks up this year, as it’s often been the case lately, the best open to a draft seems to be RB-RB-WR-WR or RB-WR-RB-WR. If I have two good RBs and two of the WRs listed above, I’m off to a good start.
Once I lock in two nice WRs, I’m not in a rush to add my WR3, so in the fifth round, that’s when I’ll start looking at QB and/or TE. I’m basically in BPA mode (best player available), with a strong lean to RB if there’s (somehow) a strong RB3 option like Kareem Hunt or an upside guy like Javonte Williams still on the board.
But there are several players I love in the 70-100 range (Rounds 7-8/9) as great WR3s, and they are:
Jerry Jeudy (Den, 70 ADP) — I’m not worried about his drops last year because he led the damn league in uncatchable targets and didn’t have drop problems in college. Jeudy was constantly open last year, and he can explode with better QB play, which he should get from Teddy Bridgewater. But people like me are pumping him up too much, and his ADP is up nearly 10 spots since 8/7. I’m still OK with it.
DeVonta Smith (Phi, 86 ADP) — His ADP had been dropping due to his absence from camp, but he was the real deal early on in camp and there’s a ton of confidence in him. His injury is not a concern and should be 100% soon. His season will be up-and-down with Jalen Hurts, but he looks like a high-volume bargain and his ADP is down six spots from 80, which is nice.
Deebo Samuel (SF, 83 ADP) — I absolutely loved him as a rookie, felt he was overvalued last year, and now I’m back, thanks in large part to an ADP that has doubled in a year’s time. They are once again a little thin at WR, so Deebo has a huge role for sure.
Antonio Brown (TB, 90 ADP) — I’m not aggressively targeting Brown, but I’ll take him around 90-100 overall because there’s more upside than downside based on how good he looked last year. He’s still AB, and he’s been AB in camp. His ADP is up around 10 spots from 8/7, though. If he rises much more, he’ll be less appealing.
So at 8-9 rounds into a draft, it would be nice to have three WRs, preferably three guys listed above because that’s a great list!
If I miss out on one of these targets/values and I’m still looking for WR help 100+ picks into a draft, there are plenty of appealing options. I’m focusing more on youth and upside at this point by targeting young, ascending players who have not yet reached their ceilings, but there are also some solid (and, yes, boring) veterans in this 100-150 range I may take if my previous WR picks were upside-oriented options without much of a track record.
Marquise Brown (Bal, 109 ADP) — It has not been going well with Hollywood this summer, as he’s dealing with a hamstring, which is problematic. His ADP dropped about 10 picks from 8/7, though, which offsets any downside. I still like his upside from this spot. Brown’s 15.8 FPG in his final eight games was 15th-best among WRs with 10 or more games.
Michael Gallup (Dal, 99 ADP) — Last year, I preferred the cheapest of the Dallas WRs, CeeDee Lamb, and this year it’s Gallup. He will be more up-and-down than people like, but when he hits, he hits big. Gallup’s average depth of target downfield was 17.6 yards (fifth-highest among WRs) while Dak Prescott was playing. He’s in a contract year, and defenses will have their hands full with Lamb, so Gallup will be getting better matchups this year. His ADP is rising a bit, though.
Jaylen Waddle (Mia, 108 ADP) — Once we’re 100+ picks in, I’m okay taking a plunge on a player talented enough to take the league by storm, and Waddle is that. I’m not even sold on him yet for this year, but I’m still listing him because of his high-level traits and pedigree.
Darnell Mooney (Chi, 103 ADP) — They love him, and most fantasy players don't realize how good he was last year because they didn’t have a QB who could get him the ball downfield. Justin Fields happens to have outstanding ball location on downfield throws, and Andy Dalton has actually been good so far, so it’s a big QB upgrade. A top-30 season is within reach for Mooney if his QB can hit on those shot plays because he’s going to be open. His ADP is up almost 12 spots from 8/7, but only 5 spots from 8/16, so he’s locked in with an ADP around 100, which is nice.
Michael Pittman (Ind, 106 ADP) - I’ve loved Pittman from day one, but I pulled him from this list the last time around for obvious reasons. But with Carson Wentz looking likely to return by Week 1 and with Pittman balling, I’m back in. They spread the ball around, so he won’t go off, but he’s still a very good player who can be had at a discount. 8/29 Update: Given the TY Hilton injury, Pittman is looking better for sure, and his ADP will likely move up 10-12 spots by Week 1.
Mecole Hardman (KC, 111 ADP) — Hardman took a step back last year, which was definitely disappointing, but a quick glance at their depth chart tells you all you need to know: KC may not be truly counting on Hardman, but they sure do need him to step up because they have one of the thinnest wide receiving corps in the league. If he can claim just half of Sammy Watkins’ 55 targets, Hardman should eclipse his career catch total by 15+ grabs and his career yardage high by 300+ yards. The vibes have been good for months now on Hardman, and his ADP is also rising but still palatable on 8/27.
Elijah Moore (NYJ, 122 ADP) — We’re all in agreement that this kid is straight fire, and a baller, and while his ADP has soared, I’m still in. It will be up-and-down, but it would not be surprising to see Moore lead the Jets in receiving and land in starting fantasy lineups for more than half his games. Of course, his ADP is soaring despite being banged up this summer, so he’s quickly become a swing-for-the-fences pick only or a fairly costly pick for the second half of the season. But I’m still in on Moore.
DeVante Parker (KC, 128 ADP) — I’m a longtime Parker hater, but I actually think his ADP is ridiculously low … so I’m in! Until proven otherwise, he’s the #1 WR in this offense, and he should be plenty motivated with all the competition added. His ADP is actually falling as of late August.
Henry Ruggs (LV, 130 ADP) — If Ruggs doesn’t come on strong this year, he may just stink. Ruggs’ aDOT was 17.3 yards (second-highest), so hopefully his targets aren’t as boom-or-bust and he can get some looks closer to the line of scrimmage. He’s bulked up and has had a nice showing so far, so while I’m not expecting much, I’m still willing to bet on pedigree in this case.
Marquez Callaway (NO, 145 ADP) — I wrote in early August that his ADP might be up 50+ spots in 2-3 weeks, and it was up 60+ spots in like 10 days, and up another 20 spots as of 8/17. But he’s still a value, since he’s the main target here until Michael Thomas returns, which will likely be after Week 6.
Once I get past 150 players taken in a draft, it should be almost entirely about upside, unless a solid veteran slips and is too affordable to pass up. As usual, I have some safer options, and some upside options in the 150-200+ range.
Here they are listed by ADP:
Sterling Shepard (NYG, 158 ADP) — He’s very consistent when healthy, and Daniel Jones loves throwing it to him, so while they will spread the ball around, I actually think Shepard could lead their receivers in receptions, as he did last year. So far, so good, as Kenny Golladay was injured on 8/3 and was just back in very late August. A Giant beat writer that same day Golladay went down told me Shepard could lead them in catches this year, which was a bold prediction of mine a month earlier. And he’s had summer and now other beats are saying he could lead them in catches.
Terrace Marshall (Car, 151 ADP) — The vibes in camp are good, and he’s led them in receiving in the preseason. He should be able to get on the field quickly due to his familiarity with OC Joe Brady, who coached the LSU offense in 2020, and because of his ability to line up all over the formation. He also has great size for the red zone, which is needed here for sure. His ADP is up 30 spots, though, so he’s actually a little pricey, but he looked great again in the third game on 8/28.
Gabriel Davis (Buf, 153) - I’m late to the party on him this year, but better late than never. He looked great in the final preseason game and will have solid value no matter what. If there’s an injury, he could be huge in year two with his QB looking like he hasn’t yet peaked.
Jakobi Meyers (NE, 154 ADP) — His ADP was up 10 spots from 8/6 and now it’s up 30 spots from 8/16, but he’s been criminally-underrated. I said on 8/16 that even if he’s 150 by September 1st, it’s still pretty good for quite possibly the most-targeted Patriot wide receiver. And that’s exactly where his ADP is. Again, more than fine with it.
Bryan Edwards (LV, 172 ADP) — He is running with the starters, and that was the plan when they drafted him last year, so he’s getting a real chance to contribute and has the talent to be a difference-maker. The vibes were good as of 8/16, and they’re even better as of 8/27. If you pick a WR after 170 overall, Edwards should be a top consideration.
Parris Campbell (Ind, 175 ADP) — Like Pittman, I’ve always loved Campbell, but he was pulled off the list two weeks ago. But I’m back in after seeing a big play in the opener, with Wentz’s outlook improved, and with him remaining dirt cheap. He’s made it through a preseason without an injury, which is big. And like Pittman, Campbell is moving up with the TY Hilton injury.
Amon-Ra St. Brown (Det, 188 ADP) — He has to earn snaps, targets, and a big role, but he’s talented enough to do that quickly. And he’s mainly behind two brittle veterans. He played early in the opener and looked good (he had a catch called back), and he’s clicking well with Jared Goff, so he’s a great upside pick 180 picks in. His ADP rose a round in late August, but that’s negligible.
And at 200+, we’re digging deep but I still see some attractive options, like:
Marquez Valdes-Scantling (GB, 200 ADP) - I gotta get him on here, since I keep hearing amazing things about his performance this summer. This is a 14-team special only. He’ll be volatile most likely, but we’re looking at more big plays in 2021.
Tyrell Williams (Det, 210 ADP) — I’d rather take a flyer on St. Brown, but the fact is Williams is a couple of rounds cheaper, and he’s actually their #1 right now. He will be more than useful for those in deeper leagues if healthy. Of course, he’s a little banged up to end the preseason (shocker).
KJ Hamler (Den, 229 ADP) - He’s not going to pile up numbers, but his ROI at this ADP could be great, despite not getting a high number of targets.
Byron Pringle (KC, 237 ADP) - I’m losing faith in Mecole Hardman, so this guy must be on the radar. He’s almost a lock to be a popular WW pickup, so if you dig deep, draft him now and avoid the WW line.
Kadarius Toney (NYG, 239 ADP) — I love this guy, and I think he may be a star in a year or two years, so I’ll take a shot this late for sure, even though he’s been out of camp and will certainly be slow off the mark, but he’s trending back the right way approaching Week 1.
Nico Collins (Hou, 240 ADP) - I hate the Texans, but in a 14-team league, this guy is absolutely draftable. I don’t see how he doesn't get a lot of playing time, and he’s a specimen.
The Tight End Plan
I’m just not wired to take a TE as early as Travis Kelce at his ADP of 7. I know it’s been a decided advantage lately even with the hefty price, but I just can’t pass on a quality RB in the first round, so I’m probably out again on Kelce. But don’t go by me with this one, since the Fantasy Points Generator software loves Kelce as soon as #3 overall. That’s all about the statistical advantage he presents at TE.
As usual, I’m targeting a second-tier guy who’s a good bet to put up top-5 numbers as my TE1. I know most people don’t like to take two TEs, but I actually do if I have at least a decent number of bench spots (six or seven at least). That’s in part because I usually don’t pay the premium for a top TE, so my TE1 is never a stone cold lock to come through. If I did pay up for Kelce, Darren Waller, or George Kittle, I might not be inclined to draft a second TE, especially if there are usually solid WW types available.
So I can skip right over the studs and get to my ideal picks at this position. It won’t take long to get through this part because there are only three players, and all with ADPs from 63-72, all sixth-round picks in a 12-team redraft. These guys are perfect options when they’re coming off the board because the available RBs won’t be very appealing, and there’s nothing particularly enticing about the WRs being drafted in this range (JuJu Smith-Schuster, Tyler Boyd, etc.).
Kyle Pitts (Atl, 56 ADP) — You know what? I’m in at an ADP around 50-55 for Pitts. It’s pricey, but my vibe is that new HC Arthur Smith and his OC can utilize this guy well, and that 100% looks to be the case in camp. I’m not aggressively targeting him, but I am willing to take him in the fifth if he’s the best talent on the board. I will NOT take him in the fourth, though, and I will not take him over the guy below.
TJ Hockenson (Det, 63 ADP) — He’ll miss Matthew Stafford, but Jared Goff is certainly capable of getting him the rock, and Hockenson’s targets should rise, given the state of their receiving corps. That’s saying something, since TJH was one of four TEs with 100+ targets last year and he finished as a TE1 (top-12) in 8-of-13 games before Stafford got hurt in Week 15. It’s clear in camp he’s the go-to guy.
Mark Andrews (Bal, 66 ADP) — He actually saw a higher share of the Ravens red-zone targets last year (28%) compared to the 2019 season (22%), but he turned his 16 red-zone looks into only 4 TDs. I just think he had a down year, along with Lamar. While he should be leaned on less with the WR upgrades this year, Lamar still loves throwing it to him in the middle of the field, so I still view Andrews as a high-end starter, and the loss of JK Dobbins probably helps Andrews.
I’m targeting these three above, but I’m not locked into them, and I’m perfectly willing to wait another two or three rounds before taking my TE1. I have really warmed up to one player in particular based on some recent intel, so he’s really intriguing.
Logan Thomas (Was, 94 ADP) — Here’s the guy my intel tells me to be in on this year. He has some limitations and is best when running in a straight line, but he’s also massive and was dominant at times last year, and his new QB can definitely get him the ball. I like him more than Noah Fant and Dallas Goedert, things being equal ADP-wise.
Noah Fant (Den, 97 ADP) — I loved Fant last year, and it was a pretty good recommendation, since he was sixth in TE targets despite missing a game and being seriously banged up for several games. The QBs on the roster inspire little confidence, but I’m convinced Teddy Bridgewater is an upgrade over his craptastic 2020 QB play.
Jonnu Smith (NE, 137 ADP) — A dialed in Patriots reporter/media host told me in early August that, based on his skills and how they were using him in camp, he thought the passing game would go through Jonnu. That was enough for me to hop all over his bandwagon, and we have had him a few positional slots over his ADP all along. He’s back from an ankle injury, and looking better with Mac Jones trending toward playing a lot. I love Jonnu as a cheap possible TE1 you can draft as a TE2.
Evan Engram (NYG, 145 ADP) — I’ve added him as of 8/27, since he’s looked great again, is in a contract year, has chemistry with Daniel Jones, and since Kenny Golladay is going to be slow off the mark given all the time missed. There’s some upside at his affordable ADP in a contract year.
There are other viable starters at this position going off the board in an acceptable range of picks, like Mike Gesicki (Mia, 126 ADP), but I do like taking a flyer on a cheap TE2, if possible, especially if I’m looking for some upside and/or a backup plan in case my TE1 doesn’t deliver. Gesicki, Engram, and Jonnu are all very good TE2’s, but I may want to wait for a dirt-cheap option if I took a TE2, and my favorites right now are:
Austin Hooper (Cle, 201 ADP) — His usage was all over the map last year. He was hurt for a spell and missed three games, but he had three double-digit target games (two of them his final four games), and six games with four or fewer targets. I do love Harrison Bryant as a prospect, and David Njoku is still here, but Hooper did start clicking and producing with Baker Mayfield in the second half last year, and I do think that will continue. Very good vibe here, considering he’s so cheap.
Cole Kmet (Chi, 173 ADP) — They do like him quite a bit, which explains why he ran more routes (177 to 103) and saw more targets (34 to 20) than Jimmy Graham over the final eight weeks of his rookie season last year. His upside isn’t great, but he is a young, ascending guy who will be a fixture here and they don’t have much at all at WR, so they need him.
Gerald Everett (Sea, 173) — HC Pete Carroll has talked about Everett being a “breakout” player, which is possible because they need to attack defenses in the middle of the field, and he can run. He’s looking good in late August, so I’ll keep him on the list.
Pat Friermuth (Pit, 230 ADP) - His ADP may be 200 by now, but after he was essentially anointed as the co-starter, it’s in line with what I previously covered in my Vibes article. This guy is looking like the next big thing at TE, starting in 2022, but it may start this year if he gets the red zone love he’s expected to get.
The Place Kicker Plan
I do have to admit that I retired from analyzing kickers. Sorry.
However, I still follow them, just not as closely as when I projected them. And looking over our projections, done by Tom Simons, who has worked with me for over 20 years and specializes in special teams, I do have some targets. I’m not against taking a top kicker, especially if I’m picking near the end of the final round. In that case, I’ll likely take my kicker the next-to-last round, to ensure I get a strong option. Then again, is there a top kicker in 2021? The majority of last year’s top-10 kickers were undrafted in most leagues (see why I quit analyzing kickers?).
But overall, I’m generally looking to find a value, sleeper, etc. Scanning our preseason top-12, these guys stand out.
Ryan Succop (TB) — 52 XPTs and 28 FGs with only three misses was solid, and if he remains consistent he can do better than this in this incredible situation. He’s about the 7th kicker off the board, which is a potential value.
Tyler Bass (Buf) — He did have six misses, but they move the ball incredibly well and he was solid on longer kicks with 12 FGs of 40+ yards. He’s about the sixth kicker off the board, which is decent value.
Jason Sanders (Mia) — He was tied for second in attempts with 39 and was second in FGs with 36, and Miami is still ascending and has a complete team with fewer weather concerns than most clubs. Of course, he’s getting love as the fourth kicker off the board. But he’s costly because he’s desirable, and he’s not that costly.
Rodrigo Blankenship (Ind) — Fourth in field-goal attempts with 37 and sixth with 32 makes, and he has to win the job in camp this summer, plus there is downside if the offense stalls due to their injuries. Then again, Indy’s good defense and running game could set him up well if they can’t convert in the red area with TDs.
The Team Defense Plan
I have to say, the quality depth at D/ST this year is unusually good on paper. That may be the kiss of death, but it’s worth noting. Also worth noting is that there isn’t a consensus #1 defense this year, so I will not be paying up for a premium unit because I don’t see any clear ones, and there are more teams that appear to be good options than usual. So I probably won’t take the LA Rams, the Washington Football Team, who are appealing.
My favorite value picks this year are:
Tampa Bay Buccaneers — They were my #1 target last year, but they are costly this year as the fourth defense off the board. But I’m not against paying up for them around 160, especially if I’m loving my players and okay giving up a late-round flyer skill player.
Miami Dolphins — They will be the fourth or fifth defense off the board this year, which is more than fine. They were great last year and I like their sack numbers to go way up with #1 pick edge rusher Jaelan Phillips added in the first round. The offensive improvements should afford them more leads, and they have a nice schedule. Things have been ironed out with CB Xavien Howard, so they are my top target in terms of the non-obvious and more expensive teams.
Indianapolis Colts — They were #1 last year, and I think they may drop to the 10-12 range for DSTs, given their offensive issues, so I still like them. They scored 7 TDs, which they won’t duplicate, but they usually get a lot of INTs, and they have been good for sacks. They may be great for sacks this year with an improved offense and #1 pick edge rusher Kwity Paye. The defense has been lights out in camp so far.
New England Patriots — They’re fully loaded this year with a few key players back after sitting out due to COVID. They will usually be the eighth or ninth defense off the board, so they are a good unit to target if you’re one of the final 3-4 teams to take a defense.
My Guys…ranked
As usual, I have narrowed down the top-250 players to around 70, or 30% of the field. But with differing ADPs, it’s hard for me to convey exactly how much I like these guys, so I’m ranking my recommendations from 1-75 based on the player and his ADP. I will update this list weekly the rest of the preseason. This list is as of 9/7.
- Antonio Gibson (WFT, 14 ADP)
- Darnell Mooney (Chi, 103 ADP)
- A.J. Dillon (GB, 98 ADP)
- Javonte Williams (Den, 51 ADP)
- Justin Fields (Chi, 127 ADP)
- Adam Thielen (Min, 50 ADP)
- Jerry Jeudy (Den, 70 ADP)
- Baker Mayfield (Cle, 154 ADP)
- Marquez Callaway (NO, 145 ADP)
- Sony Michel (LAR, 90 ADP)
- Jonnu Smith (NE, 137 ADP)
- Deebo Samuel (SF, 83 ADP)
- Mark Andrews (Bal, 66 ADP)
- Logan Thomas (WFT, 94 ADP)
- Trey Sermon (SF, 73 ADP)
- Marquise Brown (Bal, 109 ADP)
- Brandon Aiyuk (SF, 55 ADP)
- Elijah Moore (NYJ, 122 ADP)
- Aaron Jones (GB, 11 ADP)
- Terry McLaurin (Was, 29 ADP)
- Chase Claypool (Pit, 63 ADP)
- CeeDee Lamb (Dal, 30 ADP)
- TJ Hockenson (Det, 63 ADP)
- Matthew Stafford (LAR, 94 ADP)
- Najee Harris (Pit, 16 ADP)
- Bryan Edwards (LV, 172 ADP)
- Lamar Jackson (Bal, 54 ADP)
- Jalen Hurts (Phi, 101 ADP)
- Sterling Shepard (NYG, 158 ADP)
- Diontae Johnson (Pit, 47 ADP)
- Ja’Marr Chase (Cin, 55 ADP)
- Joe Mixon (Cin, 20 ADP)
- James White (NE, 153 ADP)
- Antonio Brown (TB, 90 ADP)
- Michael Pittman (Ind, 106 ADP) - Moved up on 8/29
- DeVonta Smith (Phi, 86 ADP)
- Jakobi Meyers (NE, 154 ADP)
- Dak Prescott (Dal, 63 ADP)
- Michael Gallup (Dal, 99 ADP)
- Jamaal Williams (Det, 111 ADP)
- Damien Harris (NE, 84 ADP)
- Allen Robinson (Chi, 30 ADP)
- D’Andre Swift (Det, 32 ADP)
- Kyle Pitts (Atl, 56 ADP)
- Trey Lance (SF, 124 ADP)
- Gabriel Davis (Buf, 153 ADP)
- Jaylen Waddle (Mia, 108 ADP)
- Robert Woods (LAR, 35 ADP)
- Chris Godwin (TB, 42 ADP)
- Amon-Ra St. Brown (Det, 188 ADP)
- Ty'Son Williams (Bal, 150 ADP)
- Austin Hooper (Cle, 201 ADP)
- Joe Burrow (Cin, 113 ADP)
- Kenny Gainwell (Phi, 159 ADP)
- Miles Sanders (Phi, 42 ADP)
- Michael Carter (NYJ, 90 ADP)
- Kadarius Toney (NYG, 239 ADP)
- James Robinson (Jax, 30 ADP)
- DeVante Parker (KC, 128 ADP)
- Tua Tagovailoa (Mia, 161 ADP)
- Parris Campbell (Ind, 185 ADP) - Moved up on 8/29
- Marquez Valdes-Scantling (GB, 200 ADP)
- Byron Pringle (KC, 237 ADP)
- Terrace Marshall (Car, 151 ADP)
- Kareem Hunt (Cle, 59 ADP)
- Chris Carson (Sea, 38 ADP)
- Pat Friermuth (Pit, 230 ADP)
- Noah Fant (Den, 97 ADP)
- Chase Edmonds (Ari, 69 ADP)
- Ryan Fitzpatrick (WFT, 182 ADP)
Draft Plan in Action
Let’s take a look at this plan in action from the various draft positions in round one. I’m using current ADP data as of 8/15 as a guide, and it’s NFFC data, which represents the highest level of fantasy acumen out there. These teams below are doable per the ADP, which means you will do better in your draft, most likely.
Drafting from #2 spot
The #3 position may be the toughest of all in the first round, but picks 1-2 are locked in, so we’ll grab:
Dalvin Cook
Next up, it’s already a tough call in terms of which player I should take in Round 2. The Fantasy Points Generator had crunched the numbers two week ago and the pick was Darren Waller. However, he’s no longer available, so it’s a moot point.
Three weeks ago, Justin Jefferson was the pick, but his ADP is up, so it’s not doable on 8/27. But I’ll go WR still, along with a RB. I could easily go Allen Robinson or Terry McLaurin, but it’s hard for me to avoid sexy, so I’ll go with that:
David Montgomery (replaced JK Dobbins)
CeeDee Lamb
What’s interesting about picking early in Round 1 is that, based on ADP, Javonte Williams is a good bet to be there for you with the first pick of the fifth round. There’s risk of an overpay, but based on his talent, college tape, and incredible debut, he looks worth the risk. And his ADP will probably be 45-50 in a week. I’m clearly not in a position to consider Lamar Jackson, which is obviously fine. So I’ll take my top WR value along with Williams:
Adam Thielen
Javonte Williams
Even though I’m using current high-stakes ADP as of 8/27, this is still a pretty damn exciting team with upside. However, the ADP is getting tougher, and just a week ago I was able to get Jerry Jeudy with my next pick, but he’s gone.
The RB talent is about to fall off a cliff, so I have no choice but to take the RB I’m taking, and I’ll get another one of my favorite WR picks after missing out on Jeudy:
Trey Sermon
Deebo Samuel
In the eighth and ninth rounds, things set up perfectly for me to grab WR breakout WR, and I think it’s time to get my QB now that we’re 100+ picks in:
Darnell Mooney
Jalen Hurts
I’m in really good shape at RB and WR, but I don’t have my TE, so I’ll address that position and make a small overpay to ensure I’m going to be good at QB with a cheat code guy, just in case Hurts doesn’t pan out. If he does, I can probably make a trade with him or the guy I’m adding now:
Jonnu Smith
Justin Fields
Next, some WR depth and a TE2 who could be sneaky-good:
Marquez Callaway
Evan Engram
This team stacked together looks like this:
- Dalvin Cook
- David Montgomery
- CeeDee Lamb
- Adam Thielen
- Javonte Williams
- Trey Sermon
- Deebo Samuel
- Darnell Mooney
- Jalen Hurts
- Jonnu Smith
- Justin Fields
- Marquez Callaway
- Evan Engram
With a starting lineup of:
QB: Jalen Hurts/Justin Fields
RB: Dalvin Cook
RB: David Montgomery
WR: CeeDee Lamb
WR: Adam Thielen
WR: Deebo Samuel
TE: Jonnu Smith
Flex: Javonte Williams/Trey Sermon/Darnell Mooney
Comments: This one turned out a little weird, but the ADP is shifting and things are getting tougher. The bottom line is I’m strong at RB and WR with more picks to go, and I’m in good shape at QB. I may need to do some work at TE, but I do have two options and need only one of them to pop. These are still all players on my target list, so I like them all.
Drafting from #5 spot
For now, the #5 position looks good, since you can get Zeke and sleep pretty well that night. I like sleep, so let’s do just that:
Ezekiel Elliott
The first thing I’m going to do is look at my possible picks in Round 3 to help me make my decision for Round 2. Per the ADP, I have a tough decision on whether to go with an elite TE in Darren Waller, another talented bellcow RB in Joe Mixon, or a top wideout like Justin Jefferson.
You know, per the Fantasy Points Generator, I’ve already screwed up and Travis Kelce was the pick at 5 overall, so maybe Waller is the pick? I mocked it out using the FPG, though, and the pick was actually Mixon. That’s a function of a recently bumped projection for Mixon, who we are once again all-in on. If you’re uncomfortable with Mixon, then don’t take him because Waller, DK Metcalf, and Jeffferson are right there with Mixon. But we’ll open RB-RB with:
Joe Mixon
When I go RB-RB to open a draft, I’m usually inclined to hit WR with my next pick, and I will do that here. In the previous version with ADP from around 8/7, I got Terry McLaurin. But he’s no longer there, so I go with upside with:
CeeDee Lamb
In Round 4, it feels like I can’t screw this pick up, and I didn’t expect the call to be so hard.
Adam Thielen
Next up, I now miss out on Javonte Williams, so I’m actually going to go QB, since I just used my last two picks on WR (Brandon Aiyuk is temping as my WR3 here). I’m a little worried about Mixon in general, so I’ll go for some upside with:
Lamar Jackson
The draft is not flowing well for me to get some of my guys, like Jerry Jeudy, so I’ll get another RB I love in this spot:
Trey Sermon
I’ll go right back to one of my favorite value picks at WR in:
Deebo Samuel
And next that great RB4:
AJ Dillon
And my favorite breakout guy:
Darnell Mooney
I did miss out on my guy Logan Thomas, but this guy is not a bad option and is a comparable option a round later:
Tyler Higbee
Not seeing a ton I like on the board, and since I’m a little light at WR, I’ll grab this guy, who I might have to start Week 1:
Marquez Callaway
I’m in good shape at WR, and really all the positions, so I’ll next add a sneaky RB pick:
James White
I’ll grab Austin Hooper in 1-2 rounds after this pick, and I could roll with a number of upside QBs later as my QB2 like Daniel Jones actually, so I’ll add another depth piece at WR:
Parris Campbell
This team stacked together looks like this:
- Ezekiel Elliott
- Joe Mixon
- CeeDee Lamb
- Adam Thielen
- Lamar Jackson
- Trey Sermon
- Deebo Samuel
- AJ Dillon
- Darnell Mooney
- Tyler Higbee
- Marquez Callaway
- James White
- Parris Campbell
With a starting lineup of:
QB: Lamar Jackson
RB: Ezekiel Elliott
RB: Joe Mixon
WR: CeeDee Lamb
WR: Adam Thielen
WR: Deebo Samuel
TE: Tyler Higbee
Flex: AJ Dillon/Darnell Mooney/Marquez Callaway
Comments: This team is different than the one I drafted here two weeks ago, but it’s still basically all my guys on here. I really don’t think I paid a big price going with Lamar in the fifth, actually, which is good. This squad doesn’t stand out in terms of individual players, but as a whole, there’s a ton of potential.
Drafting from #7 spot
Rather than drafting a whole team, let me link here to the 12-team NFFC Online Championship draft I did a few weeks ago. The ADP hasn’t changed that much, so you can see the plan in action. I deviated a little at the QB2 spot, but Jalen Hurts was too good of a possible value to ignore, plus I wanted access to that cheat code for running QBs.
Drafting from #9 spot
Let’s do it again from 9, and see what we see.
Actually, I already know what’s going to happen because I’m going off ADP, so I’m cheating a little. But if I were using ADP as a guide, I’d do the same thing. Knowing I can get Antonio Gibson in the second, and knowing Travis Kelce is off the board, I know what to do:
Tyreek Hill
And in the second:
Antonio Gibson
This is much better than a previous version of this article last week, when I reached on Gibson 7th overall. By the way, in case you haven’t noticed, I’m not an Austin Ekeler guy in the top-15.
This is a tricky spot now based on ADP, and looking ahead to Round 3, I won’t get a solid RB2 like I want to with JK Dobbins gone. Looking ahead, I think the best two plays the next two rounds are both WRs:
Amari Cooper
I could have taken Adam Thielen here, and even in the next round, but I’ll mix it up here and avoid major redundancy with Thielen by taking Cooper. Next, Brandon Aiyuk is temping, but I do need RB help, so I’ll get a guy who’s ADP will likely be top-20 in 2022:
Javonte Williams
It’s a tough call next with some really good players on the board, but I don’t want to pass on one of my favorite breakout players in:
Jerry Jeudy
Looks of Gurrificness here, but I’m light at RB and need more upside:
Trey Sermon
I have flexibility here with some nice WRs available, a few nice RBs, and even a TE or two. First, I’ll get that TE in:
Logan Thomas
Then, I could go right back to AJ Dillon, but I’ll mix it up with a RB I do really like at his ADP all of a sudden:
Sony Michel (I’m guessing his ADP will be around 100)
And, wow, this guy is literally the next player available to me, so I’m taking him:
Darnell Mooney
By now I’ve made the decision to hold off on QB, but if I skip QB with this next pick, I’ll miss out on a cheat code guy, so I’ll suck it up and grab:
Justin Fields
I have great potential with my two rookie RBs, but I need some help in terms of depth in case they are slow off the mark. This guy may not help out a ton, but he could be really sneaky if Mac Jones starts most of their games, as I expect:
James White
I keep taking this guy because he’s too good of a value:
Marquez Callaway
And I’ll get my Week 1 starter at QB with:
Baker Mayfield
This team stacked together looks like this:
Tyreek Hill
Antonio Gibson
Amari Cooper
Javonte Williams
Jerry Jeudy
Trey Sermon
Logan Thomas
Sony Michel
Darnell Mooney
Justin Fields
James White
Marquez Callaway
Baker Mayfield
With a starting lineup of:
QB: Baker Mayfield/Justin Fields
RB: Antonio Gibson
RB: Javonte Williams
WR: Tyreek Hill
WR: Amari Cooper
WR: Jerry Jeudy
TE: Logan Thomas
Flex: Trey Sermon/Sony Michel/Darnell Mooney
Comments: It really can pay to wait a long time at QB, and that play is looking better and better to me as the summer has progressed. If Fields/Baker hits, and I think they will, and if Williams and/or Sermon hit, look out.
These full updates always take me forever, but this is what I have as of 8/27. I go in and tweak some things the rest of the preseason, but unless the ADP shifts dramatically, I won’t do a full redo after this one.
We’re very close to the start of the season … and the smell of championships is in the air.
