Welcome to Tom Brolley’s Best Bets. This will be the main hub for my favorite NFL bets throughout the season. I will give my favorite spread, player prop, and total bets every week during the season through the Super Bowl. Starting Monday mornings, be sure to check back regularly before kickoff to see what wagers I have lined up for the week ahead.
GAME PICKS
Best Bets ATS Record: 21-26 (44.7%, -6.94 units); W10: 0-1 (-1 units)
Overall ATS Record: 68-67-2 (50.4%); W10: 0-1
Totals Record: 5-3 (71.4%, +1.55 units); W9: —
LAS VEGAS RAIDERS (+3, FANDUEL) VS. KANSAS CITY CHIEFS
I’ve been waiting this line out all week and the +3s for the Raiders have finally started to show up. The Chiefs continue to see a massive amount of respect from the bookmakers despite their 4-16 ATS record in the last 20 games. I have this line more in the pick-em range, and it doesn’t hurt that the Raiders played the Chiefs about as good as any team last season with two covers and an outright victory in their two matchups. Risk one unit at -115 to win .87 units. (Posted 11/14)
LOS ANGELES CHARGERS (-2.5, DRAFTKINGS) VS. MINNESOTA VIKINGS
I nearly played the Chargers on Monday at -2.5 but the mismatch between the Vikings’ rushing attack and LA’s run defense initially kept me away — I have this line more in the -3.5 range in my power ratings. I’m jumping on this line now since I think it’s going to move -3 and higher in the near future with the news currently surrounding the team. Dalvin Cook will likely play this week, but he could be a distraction after assault, battery, and false imprisonment charges were leveled against him in a lawsuit from a former girlfriend. The Vikings also had OG Dakota Dozier go to the emergency room for COVID-19 symptoms. HC Mike Zimmer said during a Wednesday press conference that 29 people were in close contact with Dozier, including Zimmer. The Vikings placed four players on the COVID-19 list from Nov. 4-10, including Harrison Smith who won’t play this week, so this COVID situation could get worse in the near future. Risk one unit at -115 to win .87 units. (Posted 11/10)
TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS (-9.5, DRAFTKINGS) AT WASHINGTON FOOTBALL TEAM
Tom Brady and the Buccaneers have been stewing over their loss to the Saints over their bye week, and Washington is the unlucky team to be in their way this week. Tampa Bay could be as close to 100% as they’ll be the rest of the season with the likes of WR Antonio Brown (heel), TE Rob Gronkowski (back), WR Scotty Miller (toe), CB Carlton Davis (calf), and CB Sean Murphy-Bunting (elbow) each nearing returns this week. Washington’s offense simply won’t be able to keep pace with the Buccaneers after scoring a grand total of 33 points (11.0 PPG) against the Chiefs, Packers, and Broncos in their last three games. Washington is the worst team ATS with a 1-7 record, and their lone cover came on a fluky sequence late against the Falcons. I’m surprised this line didn’t open in the 10-11 point range so I’m grabbing a little bit of value while this line is under double-digit points. Risk one unit at -110 to win .91 units. (Posted 11/8)
BALTIMORE RAVENS (-6.5, DRAFTKINGS) AT MIAMI DOLPHINS
Miami continues to be completely unimpressive even when they win and cover as they did in Week 9 against the Texans. The Dolphins averaged just 3.6 yards per play against Houston with Jacoby Brissett at quarterback and with DeVante Parker landing on the IR with a hamstring injury. There’s a solid chance Brissett is back in the lineup again with a quick turnaround for Tua Tagovailoa to get clearance from his fractured finger on his throwing hand. This isn’t the easiest spot for the Ravens to travel to Miami on short rest after an overtime victory, but they typically play well in these spots with a 4-1-1 ATS record in their last six Thursday games. Even if Tua gets cleared to play, this line should close in the 7-to-8 point range later in the week so I’m grabbing this line while it’s under a touchdown. Risk one unit at -115 to win .87 units. (Posted 11/8)
INDIANAPOLIS COLTS (-10, DRAFTKINGS) VS. JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS
The Jaguars are riding high off of their stunning upset of the Bills as 16-point home underdogs, but the result was more self-sabotage on the Buffalo side with Jacksonville averaging just 3.8 yards per play while scoring just nine points in the win. Trevor Lawrence briefly left last week for a low-ankle injury so he’s likely to miss some practice time and he’s not a lock to play, and their best skill player James Robinson will be in a race to play this week. The Jaguars had their worst performance of the season after their last win in a 31-7 road loss to the Geno Smith-led Seahawks, and they’ve scored a combined 16 points in their first two games out of their bye. The Colts quietly have one of the league’s best offenses over the last month with 30+ points scored in four straight games (34.3 PPG) after scoring touchdowns on six of their first seven drives against the Jets last week. The Colts are 5-1 ATS in their last six games, which happens to coincide with Jonathan Taylor totaling 110+ scrimmage yards in each of those contests. Once the novelty of Jacksonville’s upset victory over the Bills wears off, I’m expecting this line to move in the Colts’ favor so I’m grabbing them at a flat -10. Risk one unit at -110 to win .91 units. (Posted 11/8)
SEATTLE SEAHAWKS AT GREEN BAY PACKERS (UNDER 49.5, DRAFTKINGS)
The defenses in Seattle and Green Bay have steadily improved through the first half of the season, and these teams have turned into two under teams. The Packers have played under the total in six straight games while allowing just 16.2 points per game in that span. And the Seahawks have also played under the total in six consecutive games while allowing just 20.0 points per game. The Packers’ offense ranked dead last in seconds between plays heading into Week 9 and Seattle ranked the 13th-slowest so this is going to be a paced-down contest. It’s also mid-November in Green Bay and the extended forecast is calling for temperatures just above freezing around kickoff. The kicker is that the statuses for both Aaron Rodgers (COVID) and Russell Wilson (finger) are up in the air for Week 10. At the very least, Rodgers will play without practicing for 10 days and Wilson will be testing his surgically-repaired finger for the first time. This game has all the makings for an under and I won’t be surprised if this ticks down some this week. Risk one unit at -110 to win .91 units. (Posted 11/8)
PLAYER PROPS
Player Props Record: 82-76 (51.9%, -1.59 units); W10: 2-1 (+.97 units)
All one-unit wagers unless otherwise noted.
Thursday Night
Marquise Brown (Bal) over 56.5 receiving yards (-115, DraftKings) (L)
Marquise Brown (Bal) over 4.5 receptions (+110, DraftKings) (W)
- Averaging career-highs in YPR (14.8), catches per game (5.8), and receiving yards per game (85.3), Dolphins allowing third-most WR catches per game (15.0) and fourth-most receiving yards per game (192.8)
Lamar Jackson (Bal) over 27.5 passing attempts (-115, DraftKings) (W)
- Dolphins have faced 33+ attempts in every game and an average of 39.9 per game, Lamar has 30+ attempts in 6-of-8 games
Sunday
Tom Brady (TB) over 2.5 passing TDs (+140, Caesars)
- WFT has given up 3+ TD passses in 4-of-8 games and a league-high 2.5 passing TDs per game, Brady has 3+ TDs in 5-of-8 contests
Antonio Gibson (Was) under 46.5 rushing yards (-115, DraftKings)
- Eight carries last game, which was fewer than Patterson, TB giving up the second-fewest yards per game (55.9), potential negative gamescript as 9.5-point underdogs
Marvin Jones (Jax) over 45.5 receiving yards (-110, FanDuel)
- FP projection: 62 yards, Colts allowing most FPG to receivers on the outside
Adrian Peterson (Ten) under 12.5 rushing attempts (-140, DraftKings)
- Foreman expected to see more carries than AP, 10 carries last week in an extremely positive script
T.J. Hockenson (Det) over 50.5 receiving yards (-115, DraftKings)
- 31 targets over the last three games, Kmet 6/87 receiving in this matchup last week, pass-heavy script as eight-point road underdogs
D’Andre Swift (Det) over 13.5 rushing attempts (-120, DraftKings)
- Jamaal Williams out, saw 12 carries in a 38-point loss, Steelers don’t have an offense to run away
Russell Gage (Atl) under 53.5 receiving yards (-115, BetMGM)
- FP projection: 41 yards, he’ll need volume to get to this mark, averaging 7.7 aDOT and 9.9 YP
Kyle Pitts (Atl) under 5.5 receptions (-135, Caesars)
- FP projection: 4 receptions, 5 receptions in last two games combined, Cowboys allowing 5.3 TE catches per game, 6+ catches in just 2-of-8 games
Christian McCaffrey (Car) over 4.5 receptions (+110, Caesars)
- Cards have allowed RBs to reach 5+ catches in three straight games, 4 catches on half the snaps in his first game back, negative gamescript expected in the second half
Kirk Cousins (Min) under 268.5 passing yards (-115, DraftKings)
- FP projection: 235 yards, good spot to get the run game going, Chargers allowing third-fewest yards (209.9) to QBs,
Jared Cook (LAC) under 31.5 receiving yards (-115, Caesars)
- By far season-low 42% snap share, fewer than 30 yards in 5-of-8 games, Minny allowing 47.3 yards per game to TEs
Jalen Hurts (Phi) over 45.5 rushing yards (-114, FanDuel)
- FP projection: 55 yards, 47+ rushing yards in 6-of-9 games and 60+ in three straight contests, 10+ carries in 3 of last 4 games
Russell Wilson (Sea) under 33.5 passing attempts (-115, DraftKings)
- First game back from finger surgery, two paced-down teams, has yet to attempt more than 32 passes in four starts, Pete is back to running the rock
Sunday Night
Patrick Mahomes (KC) under 287.5 passing yards (-113, FanDuel)
- Averaged fewer than 6.0 YPA in last 3 games and in 5 of last 7, Raiders giving up the fifth-fewest passing yards per game (220.8)
Monday Night
Tyler Higbee (LAR) under 39.5 receiving yards (-115, Caesars)
- 49ers haven’t allowed a TE to reach 40+ yards since the season opener, allowing the fourth-fewest yards per game (34.0) to TEs
DRAFTKINGS PRO FOOTBALL MILLIONAIRE PICK’EM
This weekly contest from DraftKings requires users to pick five games against the spread for each of the first 17 weeks of the season. Every user gets to throw out their worst week and the person with the most correct picks throughout the season wins a top prize of $1,000,000 — the top 135 finishers win prizes.
Full disclosure: I split my entry with a fellow degenerate so these are five picks we agreed upon for the contest. Look for my picks to be posted mid-Sunday morning.
Last Week: 2-3
Overall: 21-19 (52.5%)
Week 10
TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS (-9.5) at Washington Football Team
DETROIT LIONS (+8.5) at Pittsburgh Steelers
ATLANTA FALCONS (+8.5) at Dallas Cowboys
Jacksonville Jaguars at INDIANAPOLIS COLTS (-10.5)
PHILADELPHIA EAGLES (+2.5) at Denver Broncos
