I’ve already mapped out my main 2021 Draft Plan, which outlines my plan of action in a typical 12-team league, and that can also be applied to a 10-team league.
But while the principles remain the same in a larger 14 or 16-team draft, some adjustments need to be made with a deeper player pool being drafted, and positional strengths/scarcity aren’t quite the same in a draft with 14 or 16 teams. There are also a lot of low-end options who aren’t appealing enough to draft in a 10 or 12-team league but are in a larger league.
To cover all this, I’ve gone through all the ADP numbers and have drafted some teams in a 15-team league. I go with 15 because the results can be applied to both a 14-team and a 16-team draft, and at the end of this article I’ll discuss my findings along with listing some of my favorite “14-team specials,” a term I use to describe the lower-end options who usually aren’t drafted in 10 or 12-team drafts.
Let’s get started!
Drafting from the #1 spot
First up, I have to go with this guy, obviously, since he’s like having 1.5 RBs in PPR:
Christian McCaffrey
In Rounds 2-3, at 30 and 31 overall, I’m starting my search for any high-impact players, almost regardless of position, since high-impact players are hard to come by in larger leagues, but I do have a lean to RB. So first, I’ll take a high-end WR with league-winning upside, and then a RB I feel good about at the top of the third round at 31 overall:
CeeDee Lamb Miles Sanders
So far, this is a great start, since RB is a strength, and I have a high-end WR who’s a good bet to be a WR1.
Next up, I just missed out on some really nice players like Javonte Williams, Ja'Marr Chase, and Brandon Aiyuk. Once again, I’m focusing on any elite asset I see, along with any breakout types I’m sold on. For my first pick, I’d like to go with an elite positional player whose position I haven’t addressed yet with TE TJ Hockenson, but it will cost me at another position, like WR. I know I like Logan Thomas as possibly the best TE value in the top-10 at the position, so I will pass on Hockenson, and I’ll balance the team out with a nice WR2/3 with:
Chase Claypool
Jerry Jeudy
This is a good start, thanks in part to a good draft slot that gives me a crack at the RB1 on almost everyone’s board. And then I hit WR hard before the talent levels off, so no one can say I’m weak at WR despite using two of my first three picks on RBs.
We are now 90 picks into the draft, and while I have personally had the most success in my 14-team league when I have a really good QB, I do need to address TE quickly, and I’m feeling a little light at RB, so I’ll get my TE in:
Logan Thomas
And then I’ll go for it with an upside-oriented RB in:
A.J. Dillon
Well, we’re 120 picks into the draft, and I do not have a QB. Obviously, the QB position is deep, so it’s not a huge concern, but I will overcorrect the situation to make sure I have a really nice starter, and I think between these two, I will:
Justin Fields
Baker Mayfield
Neither of those are good values when I took them, but per the ADP I was NOT going to get either with my next pick. I’m okay with it because I think both players will be viewed as steals in a few months.
I am a little light at RB and WR at this point, so I’ll reach a little for a rookie who can offer up some protection for my RB2, and who might have some standalone value on his own. In fact, given his high-end skills, I think he will have a role:
Kenny Gainwell
And I’ll grab one of my long-time favorites, even though he’s probably never going to have a huge season:
Sterling Shepard
I made a bold prediction two months ago that Shepard will lead the Giants receivers in catches, and just last week my guy Jordan Raanan, who covers the Giants for ESPN, made the same prediction to me on my SXM radio show, so Shepard’s a great draft pick in a 14 or 16-team league.
I’m obviously looking now for quality depth, and I could use it at RB, WR, and TE. I don’t see much at TE that excites me, and I do see a RB and WR who I like, so I’ll close with:
Darrel Williams
Jakobi Meyers
This team stacked together looks like this:
Christian McCaffrey
CeeDee Lamb Miles Sanders
Chase Claypool
Jerry Jeudy
Logan Thomas
A.J. Dillon
Justin Fields
Baker Mayfield
Kenny Gainwell
Sterling Shepard
Darrel Williams
Jakobi Meyers
With a starting lineup of:
QB: Justin Fields/Baker Mayfield
RB: Christian McCaffrey, Miles Sanders
WR: CeeDee Lamb, Chase Claypool, Jerry Jeudy
TE: Logan Thomas
Flex: A.J. Dillon/Sterling Shepard
Comments: Clearly, the best chance to form the best starting lineup with great balance is to wait on QB, and Baker, Fields, and Trey Lance (even paired with Jimmy Garoppolo) are my favorites if I go this route. Otherwise, it’s a balanced squad loaded with players I like this year, so I’m loving this team. If a few things fall right for me, I could have 3-4 breakout players + CMC.
Next, let’s see if anything changes from the #5 spot
I’m not going to shy away from a stud bellcow RB at 5, that’s for sure, even though the Fantasy Points Generator tells me I should take Travis Kelce.
Ezekiel Elliott
Next up, per the ADP, Patrick Mahomes is the best player available, but nah. The decision is between a top RB2 or a WR1, and it’s a tough one. I usually lean to RB here because the talent drop off coming very soon is noticeable. I do not like the WRs available to me in the third round, which is scary, but I ran this scenario by the Fantasy Points Generator, and it picked the same player I wanted to pick, which is:
JK Dobbins
I was going to take Terry McLaurin if I went WR, so I was sure the Fantasy Points Generator was going to recommend a WR, but it did not. The software ran the numbers based on our projections and ADP, and the best start after going Zeke over Kelce was in fact RB-RB-RB, as it recommended this guy:
Miles Sanders
This is a great example of how the Fantasy Points Generator is a great mock draft tool because if you know your draft position, you can practice various scenarios, and you will be drafting against tough competition based on NFFC ADP. Just keep track of the various routes you go to form your team and the fantasy points projected for your starting lineups and rosters for each to find the best route.
Next, I need a freaking WR with major upside, so I’ll roll with this guy:
Ja’Marr Chase
I still feel perilously thin at WR, so I want to hit that position hard, which I’ll do here:
Chase Claypool
Next up, I’ll play it fairly safe at QB and nab a guy I like (although I’d like Aaron Rodgers or Tom Brady more if they fell a little):
Matthew Stafford
I do have to go back to this guy right here for my cheap TE with top-5 potential:
Logan Thomas
Now I’m a little behind at WR, so I need some serious upside. Luckily, I love this guy at his ADP, He’s starting to feel like my top breakout player, frankly:
Darnell Mooney
Now I’m feeling good because I like my starting lineup a lot, top-to-bottom. That’s an accomplishment considering I opened RB-RB-RB. Granted, my WRs aren’t locks to produce enough points to hang with other teams, but they could, and I’m loaded at RB.
And what the hell, since I’m swinging for the fences at WR with this team, I might as well go all-in on that with:
Elijah Moore
I may regret it, but then again I’m a pedigree guy and this guy’s is good, so I’ll grab him for possible flex consideration and protection for Miles Sanders:
Kenneth Gainwell
Next, more WR depth with my guy:
Sterling Shepard
Finally, I’ll get a cheap QB2 with actual top-15 potential any given week and a sneaky TE who is dirt cheap with:
Derek Carr
Anthony Firkser
This team stacked together looks like this: Ezekiel Elliott
JK Dobbins
Miles Sanders
Ja’Marr Chase
Chase Claypool
Matthew Stafford
Logan Thomas
Darnell Mooney
Elijah Moore
Kenneth Gainwell
Sterling Shepard
Derek Carr
Anthony Firkser
With a starting lineup of:
QB: Matthew Stafford
RB: Ezekiel Elliott, JK Dobbins
WR: Ja’Marr Chase, Chase Claypool, Darnell Mooney
TE: Logan Thomas
Flex: Miles Sanders
Comments: I’m not 100% sure I’d do this in a real draft, but as you can see, there are many viable approaches, even in a large league. Clearly, a common component for both of these first two teams is holding off a little on QB and TE, which is always your best chance to draft the best starting lineup. Otherwise, it’s about picking the right players, and 100% of the players drafted are on my list of my top-75 fantasy picks this year (considering player and ADP), so I certainly believe I did.
Next, let’s try from the #9 spot
I want to see how the team shapes up if I change things up a bit. Or, let’s see if I even want to change things up based on how things progress.
Well, at 9, it’s already a tough call as to whether I go RB or WR. It looks like RB because there’s a big drop-off from 9 to my next pick at 23, but now the question is, which RB? Brutal call, but I’ll do what most on staff would do and something that even our good doctor Edwin Porras would do, which is to draft this guy if he falls this far:
Saquon Barkley
Next up, man, tough one with the best players being Darren Waller and Justin Jefferson. I love Jefferson, but the Fantasy Points Generator loves the top-2 TEs, so I’ll defer to it this time and take:
Darren Waller
I am without a WR, so I’ll get one here:
Amari Cooper
Since I’m taking a small risk with Barkley, a guy like Javonte Williams would be too risky, since he may be underwhelming along with Barkley in September. I’ll opt for the surer thing with:
Darrell Henderson
Next, I can solidify my QB spot without a doubt with this guy:
Aaron Rodgers
I just missed out on my guy Jerry Jeudy, but I have my other guy ranked and projected right with Jeudy, that being:
Deebo Samuel
Next, I’d love this guy as my RB3 in a larger league:
AJ Dillon
And I’m not passing up on my breakout WR guy:
Darnell Mooney
I’m good at QB and TE, but this team is a little weaker overall because I used earlier picks on those two positions. I can either play scared now and go with a “safe” pick around 124 picks into this thing, or keep swinging for the fences and upside with a guy like our guy Elijah Moore, who is available. For this team, it does feel like I should lean to a “safe” pick, and there’s a guy who should be pretty safe but also has upside, so I’ll go with him:
DeVante Parker
I know I can get Giants RB Devontae Booker dirt cheap for Saquon protection in 2-3 rounds, but I could use another RB. Obviously, the pickings are slim 140 picks into this draft, but there’s a guy who could hold value as his team’s second option in the backfield, and he has top-15 upside if their starter is out:
Rashad Penny
I’ll go back to a safe WR, but this guy could easily catch 60+ balls, so he’s a good late pick in a deep PPR league:
Sterling Shepard
And I’ll close things out by grabbing that Saquon handcuff, and I’ll actually get my defense, since we’re almost 200 picks into this thing:
Devontae Booker
Miami Dolphins
This team from the #9 spot looks like this:
Saquon Barkley
Darren Waller
Amari Cooper
Darrell Henderson
Aaron Rodgers
Deebo Samuel
AJ Dillon
Darnell Mooney
DeVante Parker
Rashad Penny
Sterling Shepard
Devontae Booker
Miami Dolphins
With a starting lineup of:
QB: Aaron Rodgers
RB: Saquon Barkley, Darrell Henderson
WR: Amari Cooper, Deebo Samuel, Darnell Mooney
TE: Darren Waller
Flex: AJ Dillon/DeVante Parker
Comments: The difference with this team is not surprising, since there’s a price to pay at RB/WR when you go TE early, especially if you also address QB fairly early as I did. But once again, this is a good team, and if things break right for Barkley and my values and breakout types come through, it’ll be a great team with no weaknesses. Once again, my success may come down to how a handful of choice picks come through, like AJ Dillon and Darnell Mooney, who I am drafting a lot.
And finally, let’s do this one more time.
From the #13 spot:
At 13, I’m definitely going with a RB, since there’s a guy available who I have ranked at 11 overall, and he’s my favorite pick right now, so I’ll start with:
Antonio Gibson
I could get Calvin Ridley here, which would be nice. But I ran this one by the Fantasy Points Generator, and it isolated a WR going off the board 30 picks later who actually isn’t a big drop off from Ridley in terms of projected points, so it recommended this RB as the pick, which I’ll go with:
Joe Mixon
Mixon may be riskier than Ridley, but he’s a league-winning type at a position with more scarcity than Ridley’s WR position.
Next up, while he’d actually be available for my next pick seven picks away, I’ll go with this guy as my WR1. He’s not a great WR1, but we do technically have him as a WR1 in a 14-team league or larger:
Adam Thielen
Next up, in the fourth, I could actually go in a number of directions and I’d feel really good about it. I could go with Lamar Jackson, which is intriguing. I could go Darrell Henderson or Javonte Williams as great RB3s, I could get a stud TE talent in Kyle PItts, or I could get another quality WR. Once again, I ran the numbers, and it went with a RB in Henderson. Tough call, but the QB depth is good, and so is the WR depth, so I’ll go for it with the RB:
Darrell Henderson
A QB is once again tempting here in Round Five, but I do have only one WR, so I’ll next grab my guy:
Jerry Jeudy
Since I went RB-heavy, I’m inclined to hold off on QB and TE in order to give me a good shot at a strong WR corps, so I’ll also get my other guy in this range at WR in:
Deebo Samuel
Next, I do need a TE with some upside, and I’m still inclined to play catchup at WR, so I’ll grab:
Tyler Higbee
And then, my guy:
Darnell Mooney
Now, I do need to hit QB, so I’ll get my upside guy for the season, and given who this guy I, I can actually get my likely my starter for the first half of the season from the same team, and much later:
Trey Lance
My guy Higbee is no lock at TE, as we learned last year, so I'll grab another TE with upside guy in case Higbee isn’t consistently targeted again like last year with:
Adam Trautman
I could use some catches at WR, so I’ll go back to my guy from the Giants:
Sterling Shepard
And I’ll grab a solid depth RB who’s a CEH injury away from being a top-30 RB at least:
Darrel Williams
We’re almost 200 picks in, so the pickings are getting slim. I’ll grab my defense now, since my favorite value pick at DT is going off the board right now, that is:
Miami Dolphins
And finally, even though I could get him 1-2 rounds later per the ADP, I won’t mess around with the 49er QB:
Jimmy Garoppolo
This team from the #9 spot looks like this:
Antonio Gibson
Joe Mixon
Adam Thielen
Darrell Henderson
Jerry Jeudy
Deebo Samuel
Tyler Higbee
Darnell Mooney
Trey Lance
Adam Troutman
Sterling Shepard
Darrel Williams
Miami Dolphins
Jimmy Garoppolo
With a starting lineup of:
QB: Trey Lance/Jimmy Garoppolo
RB: Antonio Gibson, Joe Mixon
WR: Adam Thielen, Jerry Jeudy, and Deebo Samuel
TE: Tyler Higbee
Flex: Darrell Henderson
Comments: It’s all about those RBs because I think I have a top-12 fantasy QB in the two 49er guys. But also, if my value/breakout WRs come through, I will be able to withstand some RB issues. If the RBs and my choice WRs come through, this will be a tough starting lineup in a 15-team league with a great RB3 in Darrell Henderson. I do also need my TEs to produce. There are a lot of “ifs,” I suppose, so one thing that may have made this team look better on paper would be going Calvin Ridley over Joe Mixon.
Conclusions
My main takeaway with this exercise is that the regular 10 or 12-team Draft Plan can definitely be applied to a 14-team draft, even a 16-team draft, thanks largely to the excellent depth at QB and WR, and also better-than-usual depth at RB and TE.
To me, there’s a noticeable dropoff in the RB/WR talent after the sixth round of a 14/16-team league, about 90 picks overall into a draft. Since there are some good QB options still around past 90 overall, and a couple of nice TE values/options, the best course of action in a large league is probably to load up on RBs/WRs in those first six rounds.
The way the talent stacks up this year, it seems like drafting in the top-6-7 overall is ideal. It’s fair to say these teams got worse as we started from picks 1, 5, 9, and 13.
Honestly, the main thing I usually get out of this exercise is it puts into focus the players who stand out as being a little more desirable in a deep league. Sometimes, that’s simply a function of a player’s ADP being too low, sometimes it’s a player at a deep position who stands out as the best option when he’s drafted, and sometimes it’s just a young guy who may break out and return a great ROI.
These are the players who stood out to me as being a little more desirable in a 14 or 16-team draft.
Adam Thielen (WR, Min) — We’re a lot higher on him than the masses, as we were last year. That worked out okay, since he scored 14 TDs. Especially if you go light on WR early, he’s a possible WR1 who is lasting into the fourth round.
Deebo Samuel (WR, SF) — I’m higher on him than anyone else, I think, so he’s one of my top values, which is more important in a deeper league. He’s a (relatively) dirt cheap WR3 with easy WR2 potential if things break well.
Darnell Mooney (WR, Chi) — Love him at his ADP of 115, and feel strongly that he’s one of the best breakout players around this year. If he hits, he’ll outproduce his ADP by 50+ points.
Logan Thomas (TE, Was) —He’s emerged as my favorite TE value pick this summer, and he’s a potential top-5 TE performer available in the seventh round, which is decent. Thomas was the TE4 last year in PPR and I’ve heard nothing but good reports and vibes with him this summer.
JK Dobbins (RB, Bal) — Love how he’s a likely RB2 in Round 2 of a a 14-team league even if I have the #1 overall pick.
Miles Sanders (RB, Phi) — I know the vibes have been up-and-down, as he’s had ball security issues in camp, but he’s also looked great running it young, versatile RB talents like him rarely last this long (38-40 ADP as of 8/8 and seemingly rising). I’ll take my chances if I want a RB in the third.
Darrell Henderson (RB, LAR) — I don’t think he’ll have a blowup year, but he’s a lock to produce with 15+ touches every week based on the film he put out last year. That’s a pretty decent RB2 in the fourth round if you go with WR/TE/QB early in a draft.
Chase Claypool (WR, Pit) — Pretty critical guy, since he easily has Top-20 potential but is only WR27 off the board. He’s a great WR3 in the fifth round for a team that hits RB hard or goes TE or QB early.
Jerry Jeudy (WR, Den) — Love him as a breakout player, even though his QB situation is less than ideal, so I do think he’s stealing around 70 overall.
Ja’Marr Chase (WR, Cin) — Only one ball, but his LSU teammate Justin Jefferson a top-25 pick after posting RB1 numbers in year one, and Chase is more physically talented than Jefferson by virtually every metric.
Javonte Williams (RB, Den) — I didn’t end up drafting him because I took RBs early, but he does seem riskier in a larger league, more boom-or-bust. But if he hits, it’s a game-changer. In less savvy leagues, he’s probably less risky.
Trey Sermon (RB, SF) — I didn’t even up taking him since I usually got my RB3 early, but he’s a potential RB1 or a great RB2 available 75 picks in a draft, so if he hits in a 14-teamer or larger, it’s going to be a big advantage.
Aaron Rodgers and Tom Brady (QBs, GB/TB) — It did feel wrong for passing on them, but they were always a consideration at their affordable ADPs of 70-80.
AJ Dillon (RB, GB) — I may be overrating him, but I have a really good vibe on him and think he might actually catch 25-30 balls, which would be huge. He’ll likely have some huge games, and he’s a league-winner if Aaron Jones is out, so I love Dillon as a cheaper RB3.
Sterling Shepard (WR, NYG) — In a deep league, a steady 60 catches can be very helpful, and Shepard should be good for that, at minimum, if actually healthy.
Justin Fields (QB, Chi) — He’s one of the easiest picks to make on the board, frankly, at 145-150 overall. You just can’t use him right away.
Trey Lance/Jimmy Garoppolo (QBs, SF) — Especially in a deep league, locking up the SF QB is a savvy way to go, since we’re looking at top-12 numbers for the duo. It could be complicated with a fluid depth chart, but once they go with Lance, they’re probably locked in.
And also some other players who I didn’t cover but who also offer up a potential strong ROI on their (usually minimal) investment. These players are listed by ADP from the 80-250 range:
DeVonta Smith — Could put up WR2 numbers
Jalen Hurts — Some risk, big reward
Antonio Brown — Sneaky value
Noah Fant — High-end talent, affordable
Joe Burrow — Likely undervalued due to injury
Marquise Brown — Markets are very down on him, ROI sure to please
Tyler Higbee — Is this the year? It’s in play
Jaylen Waddle — High pedigree, relatively cheap
Jamaal Williams — Nice role, nice player
Mecole Hardman — Larger role, speed to burn
Russell Gage — Volume
DeVante Parker — Sneaky value with Waddle/Fuller added and ADP down
Irv Smith — NIce potential ROI at TE
Elijah Moore — The ideal play-to-win pick around 140 overall
Henry Ruggs — Worth a shot at low ADP
Jalen Reagor — DeVonta injury may help, not yet a must have though
Baker Mayfield — Crazy value with top-12 potential for sure
Damien Williams — Sneaky value
Ryan Fitzpatrick — He’ll get his
Ben Roethlisberger — Loaded receiving corps
Gerald Everett — Some upside, a least a little
Tua Tagovailoa — Good vibes, very cheap
Terrace Marshall — Nice pedigree, good showing so far
Derek Carr — He’s annoying, but also dirt cheap and can produce
Jakobi Meyers — Should lead them in targets or it will be close
Bryan Edwards — Nice pedigree and showing so far and almost free
Kadarius Toney — Definitely worth a shot due to upside alone
Marquez Callaway — One of the best values on the board as of 8/8 with a 200+ ADP but 60+ catches likely
