Cincinnati Bengals (2-3, 3-2 ATS) at New Orleans Saints (2-3, 2-3), 1 p.m.
Brolley’s Bengals Stats and Trends
The Bengals are 7-1 ATS in their last eight road games.
Cincy is 11-2 ATS in its last 13 games.
The Bengals are 10-1 toward unders in their last 11 games.
Cincinnati lost on the final play of the game for the third time in five games with all coming on field goals.
Joe Burrow and the Bengals haven’t been special offensively through five weeks but he’s still scored between 16.6 and 23.2 FP in every game. He’s accounted for multiple TDs in four of his first five games but his YPA has dipped from 8.9 yards in 2021 to 6.9 in 2022. The Saints limited the likes of Kirk Cousins, Baker Mayfield, and Tom Brady to fewer than 14 FP in three straight games before the red-hot Geno Smith burned them for 268/3 passing for 24.0 FP.
Ja’Marr Chase is off to a slow start with fewer than 14 FP in four straight games after posting 7/50 receiving on 12 targets against the Ravens. Chase was unable to do anything down the field with an aDOT of just 5.0 yards last week and it sits at just 9.5 yards for the season after he finished with an aDOT of 13.6 yards as a rookie. Both D.K. Metcalf (5/104/2 receiving) and Tyler Lockett (5/88/1) had plenty of success downfield in this matchup last week with aDOTs of 13.1 and 23.5 yards, respectively.
Tee Higgins and the Bengals burned fantasy owners by forcing an unhealthy Higgins to suit up through his ankle injury. He lasted just 10 snaps and he didn’t see a target before he left the lineup for good in Week 5. Our Edwin Porras believes Higgins may have suffered a high-ankle sprain in Week 4, which would make Cincinnati’s decision to suit him up a little more baffling. HC Zac Taylor said after the game that Higgins “could have been an option” in the second half so hopefully he avoided a full-blown aggravation of his injury. Higgins had 70+ yards and 14+ FP in three straight games before his unfortunate Week 5 goose egg. The Saints are giving up the 10th-most FPG (37.4) to WRs.
Tyler Boyd managed just 3/42 receiving on four targets last week despite Higgins playing just 10 snaps last week, which gives him fewer than 50 yards in four of his first five games. Boyd had a combined 13/154/1 receiving on 17 targets in two full games without Higgins last season. The Saints are allowing a healthy 14.3 YPR to WRs.
Hayden Hurst has scored touchdowns and posted double-digit FP in back-to-back games after finishing with a season-high 6/53/1 receiving. He’s posted 5+ catches in three contests and two of those have come when Higgins has played limited snaps in Weeks 1 and 5. The Saints are giving up the fourth-fewest FPG (7.0) to TEs and they’ve yet to allow a touchdown to the position.
Joe Mixon averaged more than 3.0 YPC in a game for the first time last week with 14/78 rushing (5.6 YPC), but they went away from him on three straight plays at the Ravens’ two-yard line last week. He’s scored just one TD in his first five games after scoring 16 times in 16 contests last season, but he’s at least posted 3+ catches in five straight games. The Saints are allowing a generous 4.6 YPC and the 10th-most rushing YPG (110.6) to RBs.
Brolley’s Saints Stats and Trends
The Saints are 5-2 toward unders in their last seven games.
The Saints have rested Jameis Winston (back fractures) after he threw five combined INTs in Weeks 2-3. Winston was averaging a healthy 38.3 pass attempts per game and 286.0 passing YPG through three games. It’s fair to wonder if Andy Dalton will give the job up this week after averaging 8.1 YPA and completing 69.2% of his passes as the fill-in starter the last two weeks. The Bengals have yet to allow multiple TD passes and more than 16 FP to an individual QB this season.
The Saints not only have questions at quarterback but they’re extremely banged up at WR. Chris Olave, who has 13+ FP in four straight games, seems unlikely to play after suffering a scary concussion in Week 5, while Michael Thomas (toe) and Jarvis Landry (ankle) have recently missed time. Thomas is expected to return this week, and he had 5+ catches in each of his first three games but his FP fell in each of those contests (22.7>18.5>9.9). Landry has also been a non-factor since exploding for 7/114 receiving in Week 1, posting a combined 8/54 receiving on nine targets in Weeks 2-4. They’d obviously get a boost if Olave is out of the lineup, but this isn’t the easiest matchup with the Bengals allowing the fifth-fewest FPG (28.7) to WRs.
Taysom Hill became just the third player with 100+ rushing yards, 3+ rushing TDs, and 1+ passing TDs in the same game since the NFL merger. He joined Ronnie Brown (2008) and LaDainian Tomlinson (2005) as the only players to do it. Seattle had no answers for Taysom as he exploded for 9/112/3 rushing and he added a 22-yard touchdown pass for a massive 34.1 FP in their victory. Hill had just 12 carries, one target, and no pass attempts in his first four games, but his usage in Week 5 makes him a must-add in case OC Pete Carmichael continues to lean heavily on his Swiss Army knife near the goal line. The Saints have a tough passing game matchup and are banged up at WR, which likely works in Taysom’s favor to stay involved.
The real Alvin Kamara finally showed up to the party this season with 23/104 rushing (4.5 YPC) and 6/91 receiving on a season-best 73% snap share last week. He looked completely over his rib injury, but he lost a fumble in his second straight game and he watched Taysom vulture two rushing TDs from inside the 10-yard line. The Bengals are allowing just 4.0 YPC and the seventh-fewest receiving YPG (28.2) to RBs.
Barfield’s Pace and Tendencies
Bengals
Pace: 5th
Plays per game: 3rd
Pass: 10th | Run: 23rd
Saints
Pace: 24th
Plays per game: 19th
Pass: 24th | Run: 9th
Pace Points
I want to go all-in on this game as a high-scoring shootout, but the bottom line is that HC Zac Taylor provides little confidence that he can exploit this floundering Saints defense. New Orleans has allowed 26 points to Atlanta in Week 1, 28 to Minnesota in Week 4, and 32 points to Seattle in Week 5 sandwiched in between 20 points allowed to Tampa in Week 2 (Brady didn’t have his WRs) and 22 points to Carolina in Week 3 (the second-highest high mark for the Panthers this year!).
The Bengals have possessed the ball a ton – they’re top-7 in time of possession, pace, and plays – but have been mediocre at actually converting their opportunities. Through five games, they rank 19th in yards gained and 15th in points scored per possession. Given their talent on offense, that is nothing but a disappointment.
Cincinnati is 5-0 towards the under and have yet to hit an over, which is equally embarrassing for their offense and a point of pride for their defense. Their games are averaging 39.4 points scored and have fallen short of the closing total by -5.9 points.
Dolan’s Vantage Points
The Saints have a running back who could well regress positively to the mean, as well, in Alvin Kamara. Here’s more from Scott:
Taysom Hill’s existence remains unideal, but Alvin Kamara’s Week 5 usage was about as good as I was hoping for in his first game back from injury. He played on 73% of the team’s snaps (7th-best on the week), earning 72% of the RB carries (13th-most), alongside a 24% target share (2nd-best). He gained 103 rushing yards on 23 carries, and 91 receiving yards on 6 targets… Again, Taysom Hill’s existence is unideal, but not too worrisome. He’s averaging only 5.3 carries and 0.6 carries inside the 10-yard-line per game. Compare that to the combination of Joshua Kelley, Sony Michel, and Zander Horvath for the Chargers, who are averaging 9.8 carries and 1.4 opportunities inside the 10-yard-line per game.
We’ll have to see the health of the entire Saints’ receiving corps before making any sweeping judgments about anyone, but it certainly looks like Chris Olave (who is dealing with a concussion) will be a player on a lot of championship teams this year: From Scott:
If adjusting for the fact that Chris Olave played on only 40% of the team’s snaps last week due to injury (missing all of the second half minus one drive)… Over the last four weeks and with two different QBs, he’s averaging 229.1 air yards, 11.1 targets, 4.3 deep targets, 20.7 XFP, and 19.4 fantasy points per four quarters. If over the full season, those numbers would rank: best (by 38%), 4th-best, best (by 26%), 3rd-best (tied with Davante Adams), and 7th-best. Granted, injuries to Michael Thomas and Jarvis Landry are boosting these figures. But still, I’m very open to the idea of Olave being a 2022 league winner.
Here’s an update from Scott Barrett on one of XFP’s biggest underachievers, Joe Mixon. From this week’s XFP Report:
Mixon currently ranks 1st in XFP/G with 20.8. That’s+ 2.5 XFP/G more than the next-closest RB, which is the same gap as between the RB2 and the RB12.
Mixon ranks 1st in opportunities inside the 5- and 10-yard lines, and 1st in total XTD (5.1). And yet, he ranks just 17th in FPG (13.8) and only 34th in total touchdowns (1).
In total, Mixon has fallen 4.1 touchdowns short of his expectation. If he were perfectly average in touchdown efficiency, he’d be averaging an additional 4.9 FPG, bringing him up to 18.7 FPG (6th-most).
Again, unless Mixon was cursed this past offseason, I don’t see why Mixon wouldn’t regress to the mean. (And, again, that should always be our assumption.) And especially because he was so efficient last year, producing a PAR of +1.5, as opposed to his current -7.0.
But there is one thing that can stand in his way. It is possible for him to play so poorly that the team continues to take work off of his plate. And, unfortunately, this is something we’ll have to monitor. Because heading into last week, Mixon ranked 4th among all RBs in backfield XFP%. But in Week 5 that dropped to just 57% (down from a prior season-low of 70%).
Still, my instincts are telling me we’ll see a monster game from Mixon soon. And I want to bet on that happening. Unfortunately, we may still be another week away. Mixon draws a brutal matchup in Week 6, traveling to New Orleans to face a Saints defense that has ranked top-7 in FPG allowed to opposing RBs for five straight seasons (including this year).
Oh, the Bengals have another massive underachiever in WR Ja’Marr Chase. And it’s possible defenses can focus on him more with Tee Higgins (ankle) dinged. Here’s Scott again:
This season "the regression" has hit Ja'Marr Chase like a ton of bricks. He currently ranks as the 6th least-efficient WR in fantasy (-3.9 PAR), after last year ranking as the 3rd-most efficient WR in fantasy (+3.5 PAR). But in my eyes, Chase is still one of the best WRs in the NFL. So I’d now be betting on a positive regression to the mean, and for him to finish the year with a PAR somewhere around +1.5.
Including the postseason, Tee Higgins averages 18.9 FPG over the last 13 games he’s played on at least 30% of the team’s snaps. You can compare this to Chase’s 16.7 FPG over his last 13 games.
