Green Bay Packers (1-1, 1-1 ATS) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (2-0, 2-0), 4:25 p.m.
Brolley’s Packers Stats and Trends
The Packers are 2-5 ATS in their last seven games, including an 0-4 stretch on the road.
Green Bay has played under the total in three straight contests.
Aaron Rodgers is off to a slow start with just 429/2 passing through two contests, but he played better last week with Allen Lazard back in the mix and Sammy Watkins stepping up. Rodgers’ aDOT has dipped from 8.1 yards last season to 5.8 yards through two games as he breaks in his new receiving corps. The Buccaneers have yet to allow more than 11 FP through two games against Jameis Winston and Dak Prescott.
Rodgers targeted nine different receivers on his 25 attempts in Week 2 and no player saw more than Sammy Watkins’ four targets, who finished with 12.3 FP on a 65% route share against the Bears. Allen Lazard managed just 2/13 receiving on three targets in his first action, but he scored on a goal-line slant and ran a route on a promising 81% of Rodgers’ dropbacks. The Packers are bringing Romeo Doubs (37% share) and Christian Watson (32%) along slowly but they at least saw three targets each. The Buccaneers are allowing the ninth-fewest FPG (31.2) to WRs through two weeks.
HC Matt LaFleur got Aaron Jones going last week after giving him an unacceptable eight touches in the season opener. He feasted with 15/132/1 rushing and 3/38/1 receiving on a 59% snap share. A.J. Dillon also got his fair share of work with 18/61 rushing but just 1/6 receiving on three targets on 57% snap share. The Packers enter as short road underdogs, which may favor Jones as a receiver a little more, but this plummeting total (down to 41.5 points) could be conducive for a grind-it-out affair. The Buccaneers are giving up the 11th-fewest rushing YPG (72.0) and the fifth-fewest receiving YPG (14.0) to RBs this season, but they lost Akiem Hicks (foot, IR).
Brolley’s Buccaneers Stats and Trends
The Buccaneers are 4-1 ATS in their last five games.
The NFL suspended Mike Evans for his role in a physical altercation with Marshon Lattimore in their Week 2 victory over the Saints. The Buccaneers' WR corps could be as thin as their opponent’s WR corps this week with Chris Godwin (hamstring) already likely to miss and Julio Jones (knee) also up in the air for their showdown with the Packers. Big free-agent signee Russell Gage is off to a slow start after managing just 5/28 receiving on six targets (17.6% share) but he paced the group with an 80% route share. Breshad Perriman led the receivers with 3/45/1 receiving on a 77% route share while Scotty Miller saw eight targets on just 17 routes but managed just 3/34 receiving. The Packers got ripped by Justin Jefferson in Week 1, but they’re still allowing the fifth-fewest FPG (28.5) to WRs after going against Chicago’s non-existent passing attack.
Tom Brady’s receiving corps has quickly disappeared and he’s playing behind a decimated O-line that lost backup Josh Wells (calf) who was filling in for LT Donovan Smith (elbow). Brady has managed just 402/2 passing through two games after he led the league with 5,316 yards and 43 TDs a year ago. Expect the struggles to continue against the Packers in a game totaled at just 41.5 points after opening at 52 points back in May. Green Bay is allowing the 11th-fewest FPG (14.4) to QBs through two weeks.
Leonard Fournette has been the focal point of the offense through two weeks with this passing attack stuck in the mud. He’s seen 21+ carries in each of the first two games but he’s yet to score with the Buccaneers mustering just two offensive touchdowns so far. He’s also been a minor factor in the passing game with 4/19 receiving on six targets while playing through a hamstring issue. The Packers' run defense is allowing a generous 6.1 YPC and the second-most rushing YPG (143.0) to RBs through two contests.
Barfield’s Pace and Tendencies
Packers
Pace: 30th
Plays per game: 20th
Pass: 25th | Run: 8th
Buccaneers
Pace: 25th
Plays per game: 19th
Pass: 29th | Run: 4th
Pace Points
It’s bizarre to see Rodgers vs. Brady sitting with a total in the low-40s, but here we are. Both sides are short on weapons and have significant offensive line concerns. Especially on Tampa’s side.
With all of Tom Brady’s weapons hurt, the Bucs’ have shifted to an extremely run-heavy attack and are the ninth-most run-heavy team when the game has been within a score and they’re fourth in run rate on early-downs.
The Packers are taking an equally conservative approach, ranking 11th in run rate when the game is within a score and eighth in run rate over expectation. Overall, this game is fourth-slowest in my pace and plays model with both offenses being a shell of themselves right now.
Dolan’s Vantage Points
The story of this game is how decimated both receiving groups for Hall-of-Fame QBs are.
Here’s Graham Barfield, from Start/Sit, on Tom Brady’s chances in this spot:
This is the second-straight week I’ve recommended Brady as a sit and doubling down against the GOAT doesn’t feel good! But, once again, Brady is facing depleted weaponry with Mike Evans suspended, Chris Godwin (hamstring) likely out again, and Julio Jones (knee) iffy. LT Donovan Smith missing again would be massive because his backup Josh Wells is out. With all of his weapons hurt, the Bucs’ have shifted to an extremely run-heavy attack and are the ninth-most run-heavy team when the game has been within a score and they’re fourth in run rate on early-downs. Leonard Fournette will be locked into a huge workload against a Packers defense that is far easier to run on than pass against.
Even though Allen Lazard will play, Graham isn’t a huge fan of the spot for him. From Start/Sit:
I think Lazard is a good buy low right now after a slow start to his season. Lazard led Packers WRs in routes last week, but wasn’t an every-down player as he was on the field for just 62% of the Packers total pass plays. I think that will increase substantially this week as he continues to get ramped back up, but ideally, you’re not relying on him in your lineups just yet. Lazard got the touchdown against the Bears in his debut and celebrated with some ayahuasca with Aaron Rodgers afterwards, but I want to see him get some downfield targets and get involved just a bit more before I trust him in 10-team leagues.
