JD Yonke
Nevada Wolfpack vs. New Mexico State Aggies +9.5 (-110 at BetMGM)
Nevada had more turnover than just about anyone this offseason. They lost head coach Jay Norvell to Colorado State in a rare intra-conference coaching switch. Norvell mentioned the school’s lack of dedication to its football program in a messy divorce — and one that doesn’t bode well for the future.
I’m concerned about the near future as well. The Wolfpack were on pace to return only six starters but then lost two of those due to injury. Norvell took most of the coaching staff with him, so the team will be breaking in almost an entirely new coaching staff and field almost a completely new team from a year ago. The team ranks 131st in returning production and with only four starters back, it’s unclear what the strength of this team is supposed to be.
I’m inclined to look in the other direction for this one. The Aggies are also breaking in a new coaching staff led by Jerry Kill, but he has a reputation for “fixing” programs and there’s at least an understandable process. In a game between very two bad teams, I’ll grab the home team getting 9.5 points. This line has been moving down and likely will continue to head in that direction as folks continue to realize how changes the Wolfpack are from a year ago.
Sam Wagman
Nebraska vs. Northwestern +12.5 DraftKings, UNDER 51 -130 Unibet
People get hesitant to bet unders in college football due to the correct fact that sometimes, college teams just hang tons of points on their opponents. It makes sense. But in Week 0, betting against points in this slogfest seems right to me. Northwestern only scored more than 14 points in five of their 12 games last season, only averaging 11.3 PPG in their final six games.
Reverse line movement is in play against Nebraska as well, with sharps starting to put money on Northwestern. Northwestern is 5-2 ATS in its last seven games played in August as well. This could be a close, pummel-fest type of game where both teams struggle to score, leading me to take the road dog as well here.
