The Everything Report: 2023 Week 8

Hello, and welcome to “The Week 8 Everything Report,” formerly known as “the Usage Report” or “the XFP Report,” but for you long-time readers, it’s the exact same article with a different name. If you’re unfamiliar with XFP, I’ll get to that in a little bit.

What is this article?

If you’re new to this article… Every week we’re going to be telling you which players are seeing the best volume for fantasy, most often measured by Expected Fantasy Points (XFP). We’ll be telling you who the best buy-low and sell-high candidates are, typically measured by Points Above Replacement (PAR), or the differential between actual- and expected fantasy points. This is an especially effective approach in DFS, where players are typically priced by production rather than volume, though PAR will regress to the mean. And (at the end of the article) we’re going to be telling you who the best volume-per-dollar DFS plays are.

What is XFP?

You can access our complete XFP database (which includes other advanced stats like air yards, deep targets, and end-zone targets) here.

Expected fantasy points (XFP) is flat-out the best and most comprehensive way of measuring a player’s volume. It’s telling you – based on a player’s unique usage – how many fantasy points that player should have scored. It’s telling you how many fantasy points a perfectly league-average RB, WR, or TE would have scored with that same exact volume. It looks at every individual carry by down and distance and distance from the end zone and every individual target by depth of target and distance from the end zone, and then cross-references each carry and target to each carry and target with those specific qualifiers over a multi-year sample to tell you what exactly those carries and targets are worth (historically).

Expected touchdowns (XTD), same thing. RBs score from the one-yard line on 54% of their attempts. RBs score from the 17-yard line only 3.6% of the time. So why ever use “red zone carries,” which treats both carries the same, as a fantasy stat? I have no idea.

Why doesn’t everyone point to XFP in their fantasy research? I have no idea. Once you have XFP and XTD, you can contrast that with a player’s actual fantasy points or actual touchdown total to tell you how efficient a player has been (PAR). This is especially useful in highlighting regression candidates, buy-low targets, and mispriced players for DFS.

Through seven weeks of action, here are the top 30 players in expected fantasy points (XFP) per game:

The Top 30 XFP Leaders

5 Things To Know

1. Indianapolis’ offense is ripe with fantasy potential.

The Indianapolis Colts currently rank 3rd in pace of play (24.5 seconds per snap) and 6th in team scored per game (25.4).

Anthony Richardson was looking like he could have been a potential league-winner and the overall fantasy QB1 had he stayed healthy. He was averaging 29.2 fantasy points per four full quarters when healthy, alongside 0.76 fantasy points per dropback. Both numbers easily ranked best at the position.

Gardner Minshew isn’t going to be anywhere near as valuable of a fantasy asset. But he did just drop 34.1 DK fantasy points on the Browns, who were holding opposing QBs to a league-best 11.4 FPG heading into the week. And through 27 career starts, Minshew is averaging 17.9 FPG. For perspective, this would rank 12th-best this year and would have ranked 13th-best last year.

Minshew isn’t really the point here. He’s not a player I want to own in any of my fantasy leagues. But I could see him being a fantasy godsend for some of Indianapolis’ other players.

Minshew threw 55 pass attempts in 1 of his 3 starts this season. In his other 2 starts, the RBs combined for 35 or more carries in both games. To me, Indianapolis appears to be one of the premier teams to attack in DFS tournaments. Their games are ripe with fantasy goodness – currently, their games rank behind only the Miami Dolphins in combined points per game (52.7). The WRs and RBs are playable every week, but you’ll want to prioritize the passing game when Indianapolis is expected to trail throughout (like in that game Minshew attempted 55 passes), and then target the RBs in more competitive gamescripts (like in Minshew’s other 2 starts).

Not many have noticed, but in Minshew’s starts Michael Pittman and Josh Downs are putting up fringe-WR1 levels of production on high-end WR2 levels of volume.

Pittman and Downs have been fairly neck and neck in both production and volume. But Downs’ numbers have impressed me slightly more, given that he’s been saddled with the tougher matchups, facing two of the league’s top-3 toughest slot defenses in Minshew’s 3 starts. But this week, he gets a Saints defense that ranks 6th-worst in schedule-adjusted FPG allowed to opposing slot WRs (+3.1). While Pittman gets Marshon Lattimore’s shadow coverage and a Saints defense that ranks 5th-best against outside WRs (-5.9). Pittman is still a slight value on DraftKings this week, priced as just the WR12 ($6,500), and he does have the “squeaky wheel narrative” working in his favor. But Downs, priced as just the WR37 ($4,800), looks like one of the best plays on the entire slate.

As helpful as Minshew has been for Pittman and Downs, he’s been even more beneficial for Indianapolis RBs.

Last week, we saw an almost perfectly split backfield by snap share and carry share.

But Jonathan Taylor had the edge over Zack Moss as a pass-catcher (4 targets to 1). And more importantly, Taylor dominated Moss inside the red zone – earning 6 carries and 1 target to Moss’ zero opportunities.

So, despite being out-snapped by Moss in each of the last two weeks, Taylor has finished 13th and then 5th in XFP over the last two weeks. Okay, so now try to imagine what happens if Taylor fully takes over this backfield. Because although Moss has played well, this is still Jonathan freaking Taylor we’re talking about. And it’s important to mention, that Taylor looked great last week, dominating Moss in YFS per touch (5.71 vs. 3.26) and YPRR (4.50 vs. 0.83).

Across Minshew’s three starts, Indianapolis’ RBs are now averaging 28.7 carries, 8.0 targets, 29.8 XFP/G, and 27.7 FPG. If over the full season and among all offenses, those numbers would rank 1st-, 2nd-, 1st-, and 3rd-best.

This speaks to what we’ve been saying for a number of weeks now – there is massive league-winning potential for Taylor if he can turn this into a 70/30 committee in his favor. But even if this remains a 55/45 committee, Taylor should still be “fine”. Because based on Indianapolis’ 29.8 RB XFP/G, if Taylor earned just 65% of the backfield XFP, he’d rank 2nd among all RBs in XFP/G.

Now, as for what may be the catalyst behind all of this fantasy goodness? To me, it’s simple. Shane Steichen is a fantasy GOAT.

2. Alvin Kamara is an uber-back, and one of the best draft picks you could have made all summer.

Kamara currently leads all players at all positions in XFP/G (25.9), which is also an absurd +34% more than the next-closest RB. And his best volume thus far has come last week, with a historically great 36.3 XFP.

Last week, even with Jamaal Williams and Kendre Miller back, Kamara played on 72.4% of the team’s snaps, handling 17 of 22 carries and 14 of 14 targets out of the backfield. He’s seen 8 or more targets in 3 of 4 games, and exactly 14 targets twice. This is insane, super valuable, and freakishly rare volume. All throughout NFL history, there are only 39 instances of a player earning double-digit carries plus 14 or more targets in a single game (something which Kamara has now done twice through 4 games). These players average an obscene 29.9 FPG in these games, exceeding 19.5 fantasy points 95% of the time.

In 2019 I started using the phrase “uber-back” to describe the highest-end of the bell cow spectrum; basically running backs who were seeing target volume similar to starter-worthy WRs while also receiving at least a dozen carries per game. More narrowly, I defined it as RBs who ranked top-24 among all RBs in rushing FPG and top-36 among WRs in receiving FPG.

Obviously, owning a single player in one roster spot who gives you starting-WR-worthy production as a receiver and starting-RB-worthy production as a runner is an immense fantasy cheat code. But because there were so few RBs who qualified (sans 2019 Christian McCaffrey), the moniker failed to withstand the test of time.

That is until now.

Right now, Kamara ranks 7th among all RBs in carries per game (17.3) and ranks 1st among all players in receptions per game (8.8). By raw production, he’s the RB20 by rushing FPG (8.0) and the WR27 by receiving FPG (13.1).

His 22.8% target share is miles ahead of the next-closest RB (Josh Jacobs, 15.4%) and would rank 24th among all WRs, right behind Mike Evans (22.9%). His 8.8 receptions per game would rank 4th-best of any player at any position in any season in NFL history, even if you want to quibble with Kamara’s lack of efficiency in recent years or the threat of Taysom Hill vulturing touchdowns. None of that really matters when you have a player with an apparent floor of nearly 8.8 FPG, and then they get another 17.3 carries per game on top of that.

Basically, Kamara has massive league-wrecking upside if this usage sticks. And especially if he can be just league-average levels of efficient; he’s actually fallen short of his volume-based expectation by 4.2 FPG, which ranks 6th-worst among all RBs. Granted, maybe that’s a sign that this usage isn’t going to stick. But nonetheless, right now you have no choice but to view Kamara as an every-week mid-range RB1 until something changes.

3. Adam Thielen’s still got it. In fact, he’s never lost it.

This year, Thielen has had at least a step of separation on 82% of his targets coming 5 or more yards down the field. That ranks 2nd-best among all qualifying WRs, behind only Tyreek Hill (83%). Last year, by the same stat, Thielen ranked 12th-best of 56-qualifying WRs (63%), ahead of names like Amon-Ra St. Brown (62%) and Justin Jefferson (60%).

Since Week 2, Thielen ranks 3rd in routes run per game (38.6), 3rd in targets per game (11.4), 6th in XFP/G (20.1), and 1st in FPG (24.7). And, his volume and usage continue to improve. In Week 6, prior to Carolina’s bye, Thielen earned a season-high 50% first-read target share (8th-most by any WR in any game this season).

While I don’t think Thielen is going to finish the season as a top-5 fantasy WR, I still wouldn’t be baking in too much of a drop-off in production. Older WRs tend to start strong before suffering a steep decline in the second half. But beyond that, I don’t see any reason why Thielen can’t (at worst) finish top-15 in FPG, just as he has in 4 of his last 6 seasons.

4. Calvin Ridley is a psyop. And other musings on Jacksonville’s receiving corps:

I have no idea what’s going on with Ridley, who has been out-targeted by Christian Kirk 51 to 36 since Week 2.

Maybe Ridley was always a bad bet ax ante. For instance, he has just one 1,000-yard season dating back to 2016. He’s already 29 years old. The last time we saw him play football – in 2021 – he averaged just 5.4 YPT (4th-worst of 93 qualifying WRs). And then he spent the next 22 months away from football and was promptly traded away to the Jaguars for only a fifth-round draft pick (plus a conditional fourth-rounder).

This does feel like the most plausible explanation to explain what’s gone wrong – that Ridley is simply an overrated talent. But it’s also possible that (as HC Doug Pederson has said) opposing defenses are focusing heavily on Ridley, providing extra coverage to his area of the field. And then, of course, that Pederson is not doing enough to combat that.

But even if that is the case, I don’t know why we’d expect things to change. And perhaps this is also a big reason why Pederson has had just two WRs clear 900 receiving yards in 10 seasons as an NFL head coach or offensive coordinator.

If we’re going to shit all over Ridley, we better be praising Christian Kirk. And indeed, Kirk has stepped up in a big way. Since Week 2, he ranks 13th among all WRs in targets (51) and also 13th in FPG (17.5).

And he’s no longer simply the team’s “man-beater.” This year, he’s been even better against zone coverage (2.19 YPRR) than man coverage (2.05).

Right now, it’s hard to argue against him being the team’s clear WR1. However, it is worth noting that Zay Jones has played in only 3 of Jacksonville’s 7 games, and played in all 4 quarters in only one of these games. Remember – as alluded to in the previous section – Pederson’s WRs have always underwhelmed for fantasy. Perhaps he has a tendency to spread the ball around a bit too much for any fantasy owner’s liking. And we do see that in the numbers this year – Kirk and Jones are tied for the team-high in TPRR (0.23), just barely above Evan Engram (0.22), who is just barely above Ridley (0.21). So, yeah, Kirk has been great. But to me, he looks like a strong sell-high candidate.

I think Jones is a legitimately enticing DFS play this week – especially with Christian Kirk expected to be pretty chalky. He’s priced as just the WR47 on this week’s slate ($4,000), but ranks 21st in XFP per route run (0.49), well ahead of Kirk (0.38).

It’s a tough scene for Calvin Ridley. Trevor Lawrence has been somewhat underwhelming. The Jaguars are spreading the ball around at one of the highest rates in the league. Ridley ranks 4th, but also practically tied with two other WRs and a TE in TPRR. And again, given Doug Pederson’s track record, maybe we should have seen it coming.

For the uninitiated, Pederson’s WR1s have always underwhelmed, but his TEs have always exceeded expectations – across his last 8 seasons as a head coach or offensive coordinators, his TEs have collectively ranked top-12 in FPG in all 8 seasons, and top-6 in 6 of 8 seasons. Obviously, again, this is bad news for Ridley, but good news for a TE like Evan Engram, who has a lower bar to clear for fantasy relevance.

Very quietly, Engram has seen at least 7 targets in 6 straight games. Across the full season, he ranks 3rd among all TEs in targets (49), with 2 more than Calvin Ridley.

The only thing holding him back is a lack of usage near the end zone (he ranks just 30th among TEs in XTD/G). If we pretended touchdowns were worth zero fantasy points, then he’d rank 3rd among all TEs in FPG (10.8). He might be a solid DFS value in cash this week, but he probably lacks the prerequisite touchdown ceiling to be in play for DFS tournaments.

5. Some Painfully Obvious Buy-Low Targets

If excluding a Week 5 game in which Chris Olave was limited with a toe injury (and the Saints won 34-0 in a non-competitive blowout) and a Week 4 game in which Derek Carr was glaringly hampered by a shoulder injury (on 37 pass attempts he had just 2 completions traveling 10 or more yards downfield), then…

Olave has seen at least 10 targets in 5 of 5 games, hitting at least 86 receiving yards in 4 of 5. In this 5-game sample, Olave is averaging 11.2 targets per game, 132.4 air yards per game, 91.0 YPG, 19.4 XFP/G, and 16.3 FPG. If over the full season, those numbers would rank 3rd-, 3rd-, 11th-, 9th-, and 17th-best

I get that Derek Carr hasn’t played particularly well and that maybe Alvin Kamara is cutting into some of Olave’s volume. But I still have a really hard time imagining Olave doesn’t finish as a top-12 fantasy WR by the end of the season.

Jacobs’ usage remains amazing, and significantly better than it was last year (when mind you, he finished as fantasy football’s RB3). He currently ranks 3rd in XFP per team play (0.31), 5th in snap share (77.8%), 2nd in carry share (72.8%), and 2nd in target share (15.4%, up from 10.6% last year). He ranks 4th among all RBs in XFP/G (18.8), although he ranks only 19th in FPG (13.5). He averages just 2.94 YPC this season, down from 4.42 throughout the remainder of his career. And, after digging into the numbers, I have a really hard time coming up with an explanation for this other than that he’s been unfairly hampered by stacked boxes, negative blowout gamescript, and poor QB play (as Jimmy Garoppolo has missed multiple games). With all of these things going together hand-in-hand. So, to me, he’s just a massive positive regression candidate, and a player I absolutely want to be “buying low” on.

Last week, Waddle dealt with a back injury, running just 15 routes (42%). Even so, he managed to see 6 targets, catching all 6 for 63 yards. He ended the week ranking 4th among all WRs in TPRR (0.40).

Prior to this game, Waddle had seen at least 9 targets in back-to-back games. And, unbelievably, he leads all players in XFP per route run since Week 2 (0.71). Keep in mind, last season, Waddle ranked just 38th by the same stat (0.43), and still finished as fantasy’s WR8.

It’s weird that the production, efficiency, and spike weeks haven’t been there, but it feels as though it’s only a matter of time. Because we know this is one of the most potent offenses in football. And we know Waddle is supremely talented – over the last two seasons, Waddle has out-scored his XFP by +113%, the 3rd-most of any WR.

Apparently, Watson is being dropped in an alarming number of “normie” leagues. And I promise you (so long as he stays healthy), those fantasy managers are going to live to regret that decision.

If he’s available in your league, please pick him up. If he’s not yet available, consider trying to buy him off of his disgruntled owner.

Apparently, people are already writing off Watson as a wasted draft pick, even though he’s only played three games this year:

• Week 4: working his way back from a hamstring injury, Watson ran only 18 routes (44%), but still scored 10.5 fantasy points

• Week 5: still not quite a full-time player (71% route share), but he led the team in targets (7) and receiving yards (91)

• Week 7: drew shadow coverage from arguably the league’s best CB, Patrick Surtain, and then suffered a knee injury late in the game.

I don’t just think that Watson is a glaringly obvious buy-low candidate. I believe he can be a league-winner for you in the second half. Well, at least, as soon as he returns to full health – status TBD due to that knee injury.

It’s absolutely bizarre that Pollard was easily the most efficient RB in fantasy last year (+3.5), but now ranks as one of the 3 least-efficient RBs this year (-3.9 FPG). Last year Pollard was great, but his volume sucked. This year Pollard’s volume has been great – he ranks 2nd among all RBs in XFP/G (19.3) – but he’s sucked. Or, rather, he’s severely underperformed, ranking just 11th in FPG (15.4).

Since Week 1, Pollard has finished 2nd, 1st, 10th, 18th, 15th, and 3rd in total XFP. He’s finished as a top-10 fantasy RB only once.

Although all of Pollard’s efficiency metrics have nosedived, it appears what’s really plagued Pollard is just some run-of-the-mill poor touchdown luck. Pollard leads the league in XTD (6) and opportunities inside the 10-yard-line (19) but has scored just twice on the year (with both touchdowns coming in Week 1). Luckily, we know this is something that almost always regresses to the mean so long as usage remains intact.

Again, Pollard’s usage and volume are excellent. He currently leads all RBs in XFP, while also ranking 11th in snap share (70%, 77% inside the 10-yard-line) on the most valuable backfield in fantasy (league-high 28.6 XFP/G among the team’s RBs).

And what’s so crazy about this is it’s not unrealistic to think that Pollard’s volume could be even better than it is right now. That’s because Dallas hasn’t “played in any normal games” this year. Pollard has been living almost exclusively in non-competitive, either extreme positive or extreme negative gamescripts. Thus far, only 1 of their 6 games was decided by fewer than 12 points, and only 2 games were decided by fewer than 20 points. This, too, is something that will regress to the mean and benefit Pollard.

So, yes, Pollard is a massive buy-low target. And if he can come at all close to 2022 levels of efficiency – and I don’t see why he can’t – I wouldn’t be totally shocked if he finishes as a top-3 fantasy RB from here on out.

Mixon’s volume has been great. In spite of Cincinnati’s early season struggles (due to Joe Burrow’s calf injury), Mixon ranks 6th among all RBs in XFP. And his usage is even better this year than it was last year when he finished 2nd among all RBs in XFP/G (18.8).

Joe Mixon, 2022: 65% snap share (12th-most), 62% carry share (6th-most), 44% route share (14th-most)

Joe Mixon, 2023: 74% snap share (8th-most), 79% carry share (most), 47% route share (14th-most)

However… Since the start of last season, Mixon has exceeded his volume-based expectation by 3.0 or more points only once in 20 games but has fallen below -3.0 a whopping 11 times. If we exclude just one game (Mixon’s 5-touchdown game in Week 9 of last year), then he’s fallen short of his expectation by -4.1 FPG – by far the worst mark of any RB. Without that one game, he would rank 5th in XFP/G (17.4) but just 18th in FPG (13.3).

By most key efficiency metrics, Mixon has played poorly in both seasons. But more than anything, Mixon has been extremely unlucky in terms of touchdown efficiency. Since the start of last season, but minus one game, he’s scored just 5 touchdowns on 14.7 expected touchdowns. And, note, I say “he’s gotten unlucky” rather than “he’s been bad” for a key reason. We know that touchdown differential (actual touchdowns versus expected touchdowns) is something that almost always regresses to the mean.

Maybe Mixon just stinks. Maybe, in fact, he’s the worst RB in football, as his numbers suggest. That’s certainly possible. But personally, I still believe he’s a massive positive regression candidate, who is mostly just getting really unlucky in the TD department. Given that he’s on a top-5 offense in football (assuming Joe Burrow will soon be back to full health) and given that his volume and usage have been terrific, I’d be shocked if he doesn’t finish the season as a high-end RB2 at worst.

Quick Hits (Quarterbacks)

• DFS cheat code: Fade Jared Goff on the road, play him at home.

• This feels like an excellent time to try to buy low on Brock Purdy in dynasty leagues. He’s still a young player with plenty of room for growth (just 12 career starts). He’s had two down games in his entire career (both coming over the last two weeks), but was basically flawless before that, pacing the league in EPA per play, leading the league in fantasy points per dropback (0.69), and averaging 19.2 fantasy points per career start (would have ranked 7th-best last year). I imagine he has a much longer leash than many seem to realize – San Francisco’s best odds at another Super Bowl appearance is that Purdy, on his uber-cheap rookie contract, can be just Jimmy Garoppolo-levels of competent while the rest of San Francisco’s roster remains easily top-3 in the NFL.

• It would not shock me at all if Lamar Jackson wins MVP this year and also finishes as fantasy football’s overall QB1. In Week 2, Jackson scored 22.9 fantasy points against Cincinnati. In Week 3, he dropped 28.2 fantasy points against Indianapolis. (The Colts don’t have a great defense, but they do run zone coverage at one of the highest rates in the league. This is notable because Jackson has historically struggled against zone coverage throughout his career.) In Week 4, Jackson scored 28.1 fantasy points against Cleveland’s top-5 pass defense. In Week 5, Jackson’s numbers weren’t great, but his receivers dropped 7 passes (the 3rd-most by any team in any game since at least 2017). But he played exceedingly well, earning the highest PFF pass grade of any QB in any week this season, and would have had a monster day if his receivers didn’t screw him over. In Week 6, he scored 18.1 fantasy points against the Titans. And then last week, Jackson dropped 33.9 fantasy points against Detroit, in a game they won by 32 points and basically stopped trying to score by the third quarter… In other words, minus that Week 5 game where his receivers lost the ability to catch the ball, Jackson is averaging an absurd and position-best 26.8 FPG (despite a pretty tough strength of schedule over this span).

• QB-needy teams should consider adding Kyler Murray before he returns to action (likely in Week 9 or Week 10). Over the previous three seasons, Murray ranked 3rd among all QBs in FPG (22.2). Even if the lingering effects from his ACL surgery hamper his rushing production, he still has a long way to fall from “top-3 fantasy QB” all the way to fantasy irrelevancy.

Quick Hits (Running Backs)

• In Week 7 Emari Demercado earned 96% of Arizona’s backfield XFP (4th-most of any RB in any game this season). He played on 79.4% of the team’s snaps (4th-most), handling 13 of 14 carries and 5 of 5 targets out of the backfield. (Although WR Rondale Moore also saw 4 carries and 1 target out of the backfield.) In other words, Demercado is looking like a highest-end bell cow, and a tremendous DFS value this week, priced as just the RB32 ($4,800).

• Last week, without David Montgomery, Jahmyr Gibbs played on 86.1% of the team’s snaps (2nd-most), handling 11 of 14 carries and 10 of 11 targets out of the backfield. He scored 27.6 fantasy points (3rd-most) on 18.5 XFP (4th-most). This is elite usage – since 2021, RBs have averaged 28.3 FPG in games with a snap share of 80% or more plus double-digit carries and targets. He’s a top-5 fantasy RB this week if David Montgomery misses.

• Breece Hall hit season-highs in snap share (68%, 12th-most), route share (50%), and target share (15.2%) in Week 6, prior to the team's bye. Across Weeks 5 and 6, he ranked 5th in carries (34), 7th in targets (8), 11th in XFP (30.5), and 4th in fantasy points scored (48.7). And most importantly, he’s looked great. Among 59 qualifying RBs, he ranks 5th in explosive run rate (9.1%), 3rd in yards after contact per attempt (4.6), and 6th in fantasy points over expectation (+3.1).

• He was on bye last week, but – reminder – I wrote a bunch of words on Dameon Pierce in last week’s piece, here. Given my disdain for Pierce, Devin Singletary might be worth a waiver add in deeper leagues.

• Without Damien Harris, James Cook saw an expanded role, playing on 55% of the team’s snaps, handling 13 of 17 carries, and 3 of 5 targets out of the backfield. His touchdown upside remains heavily capped, however – he played on just 6 of the team’s 17 snaps inside the red zone (35%).

• In Week 7, Darrell Henderson earned 58% of the team’s snaps (12th-most among all RBs on the week), handling 18 of 30 carries, and 2 of 2 targets out of the backfield. This was good for 15.9 XFP (8th-most), on which he scored 13.6 fantasy points (17th-most). Henderson is no doubt an extreme DFS value this week, priced as just the RB32 on DraftKings ($4,800), but I’d bet he goes over-owned in tournaments. Henderson has seen similar volume many times throughout his Rams tenure, but he almost always fell well short of his volume-based expectation, and he rarely ever posted a “had-to-have-it” score (zero career games of 25-plus fantasy points)… Royce Freeman was the team’s clear RB2, earning a 42% snap share (but 0% inside the red zone), 12 carries, and 0 targets… No other Rams RB – including FAAB-favorite Zach Evans – earned a snap.

• Jerome Ford suffered an ankle injury late in the 4th quarter of last week’s game and is now expected to miss his next 1-2 games. In his absence, Pierre Strong out-snapped Kareem Hunt 17 to 9, while also doubling Hunt’s 3 touches with 6. It’s important to note that Hunt did come into this game listed as questionable, and NFL insiders are referring to Hunt as the clear RB1, but this is probably going to be a gross low-upside committee for the remainder of the season. But, at an absolute minimum (for DFS tournaments), we know Hunt has the most touchdown-upside on the team – since Week 3, Hunt has 4X as many red zone snaps as any other Cleveland RB.

• Travis Etienne leads all RBs in touches (151). Tank Bigsby is no longer vulturing goal-line work – over the last three weeks, Etienne has handled 91% of the team’s snaps inside the 10-yard-line (10 of 11). Across the full season, Entienne ranks 3rd in snap share (79.8%), 1st in carries (127), 3rd in routes run (127), 9th in targets (26th), and 5th in FPG (19.2). Yeah, he’s looking to me like a true highest-end bell-cow RB and an easy mid-range RB1 for fantasy.

• This season, there are only 3 instances of a RB playing on 100% of their team’s snaps – Kyren Williams in Week 3, Christian McCaffrey in Week 2, and then McCaffrey again in Week 7 (a game in which he entered banged up and was listed as a true game-time decision). Yeah, he’s an absolute freak.

• Miami’s RBs were finally thwarted last week against the Eagles. But it is notable that this was a lot more of a 2-way than 3-way committee backfield. By snap share, Raheem Mostert led with 52% to Salvon Ahmed’s 38% and then Jeff Wilson’s 15%. By XFP backfield share, Mostert led with 65% to Ahmed’s 27% to Wilson’s 8%… Based on this report from Week 7, it didn’t seem like Miami was too high on Wilson. And that appears to be the case. Mostert remains an every-week fantasy RB1, and Ahmed should be valued as the team’s clear RB2 (but as a high-end RB3 for fantasy) until Devon Achane’s return.

• Since Week 3, Isiah Pacheco ranks 21st in snap share (56.0%), which falls to 26th inside the 10-yard-line (59.4%). But he also ranks 10th in XFP/G (16.3) and 10th in FPG (18.4) over the same span. He’s an extreme DFS value this week, priced as just DraftKings’ RB12 ($6,100), in a best-possible matchup against a Broncos defense that is allowing a league-high 38.4 DK FPG and a league-high 5.68 YPC to opposing RBs.

• Javonte Williams was at his best in Week 7, but he remains capped at something like 55% of the team’s backfield XFP. Hopefully, this hyper-efficient outing – he led all RBs in yards after contact per attempt (4.78) – will lead to more playing time this week. But as far as I can tell, this is likely to remain a gross 3-way committee backfield regardless of gamescript.

• Brian Robinson hit a season-low 42.1% carry share in Week 7 (down from 62.1%) as rookie Chris Rodriguez earned more work – he had a season-high 7 carries, only 1 less than Robinson. If this turns into a 3-way committee backfield, this would be a crushing blow to Robinson’s fantasy value.

• Ezekiel Elliott out-carried Rhamondre Stevenson 11 to 9 last week, and 4 to 0 inside the 10-yard-line. Yeah, that’s pretty brutal. But I suppose the silver lining is that Stevenson’s target share is back up to his elite 2022 levels (16.1%) – 19.0% over the last two weeks, up from 9.1% across the first 5 weeks of the season.

• We saw a nearly perfectly even 50/50 split committee backfield from the Vikings in Week 7. Alexander Mattison played on 55% of the team’s snaps to Cam Akers’ 46%. Mattison and Akers tied in targets (3 to 3), while Akers led in carries (10 to 8).

Quick Hits (Wide Receivers)

• Jakobi Meyers and Davante Adams have played in 5 games together. In these games, Meyers is averaging 20.2 XFP/G (~WR6) and 17.6 FPG (~WR13). Both numbers trump that of Adams – 19.5 XFP/G (~WR9) and 16.1 FPG (~WR18). Even last week, in what was supposed to be Adams’ “squeaky wheel” game, Meyers out-targeted Adams 13 to 12… This has been one of the most shocking revelations of the 2023 fantasy season, and I think we have no choice but to view Meyers as an every-week top-15 fantasy WR at worst. (Yes, with Adams still several spots above him.)

• As I’ve been saying for a number of weeks now, Puka Nacua and Cooper Kupp should both be valued as fantasy WR1s. Kupp is clearly Matthew Stafford’s most trusted target when the pocket starts to break down and he’s under pressure, but outside of that, they’ve basically been the same player. And Nacua’s usage hasn’t at all budged following Kupp’s return, instead this passing attack has just become a whole lot more condensed – easily one of the most highly condensed passing attacks we’ve ever seen. Over the last three weeks, Nacua has averaged a 33.3% target share, just slightly ahead of Kupp’s 30.0%. If across the full season, those numbers would rank 1st- and 5th-best, respectively. And their combined 63.3% target share is well ahead of last year’s top tandem – Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle with 48.8%… Both receivers (and Stafford) are due for a positive regression in the touchdown department as well – the Rams have twice as many rushing touchdowns (8) as passing touchdowns (4) inside the red zone.

• Since returning from injury in Week 6, Amon-Ra St. Brown has 15-plus targets, 12-plus catches, and 100-plus yards in back-to-back games. He now averages 10.5 targets and 21.7 DK FPG over his last 26 games in which he’s played on at least one-third of the team’s snaps. If over the last two seasons, those numbers would rank 3rd-best and 4th-best, respectively.

• DFS cheat code: Fade Amari Cooper on the road, play him at home.

• In the 5 games since A.J. Brown was caught yelling at Jalen Hurts on the sideline… Brown leads all WRs in air yards (804), targets (58), and receiving yards (701). He’s exceeded 125 receiving yards in all 5 games and averages 11.8 targets and 28.8 DK FPG over this span. Remarkably, his usage appears to be improving – he earned a 54.2% first-read target share last week (the 7th-most by any receiver in any game this season). He’s somehow priced as only the WR4 on DraftKings this week ($8,000), despite facing a Commanders defense that has been getting destroyed by opposing WR1s – if you want to count Darren Waller as the Giants’ WR1, then the Commanders are giving up an absurd 32.6 DK FPG to opposing WR1s over their last 5 games.

• Meanwhile, over the same stretch, DeVonta Smith ranks 46th in target share (17.6%), 47th in XFP/G (11.6), and 57th in FPG (8.3).

• Michael Thomas has been the pinnacle of consistency, while still not providing much fantasy value. He ranks 45th in FPG (11.0), with all 7 of his games falling within 2.2 fantasy points of that number.

• Drake London is one of only 4 WRs to clear a 22.5% target share in each of the last four weeks (joining D.J. Moore, Stefon Diggs, and Puka Nacua). Ever so quietly he ranks as fantasy football’s WR15 since Week 2.

• Through 5 full games, Mike Evans averages 17.2 XFP/G and 18.8 FPG. Across the full season, those numbers would rank 13th- and 11th-best. And Week 7 might have been his most impressive performance yet, catching 6 of 8 targets for 82 yards and a score, despite facing A.J. Terrell's shadow coverage on 59% of his routes.

• Since Mike Williams went down with a season-ending injury in Week 3, Josh Palmer ranks 11th in YPG (90.0) and 14th in YPRR (2.67). Keenan Allen, meanwhile, ranks 28th (57.3) and 37th (1.64).

• It seems the Giants have finally settled on their primary 3 starting WRs, rather than opting for a frustrating committee. Over the last two weeks, Darius Slayton has led in route share (81.3%), followed by Jalin Hyatt (70.0%), and then Wan’Dale Robinson (60.0%). All have taken a backseat to TE Darren Waller, and the volume has been fairly spread out between them. Robinson has seen 10 targets to Hyatt’s 9 and Slayton’s 7. But it appears Hyatt has the most valuable role, given that his 227 air yards (8th-most) dwarfs that of Slayton (117) and especially Robinson (38). He’s an excellent high-upside punt option on DraftKings this week, priced at just $3,100.

• Rashee Rice currently ranks 2nd in TPRR (0.33) and 6th in YPRR (2.96). The only issue is, that he was frequently 5th among the team’s WRs in routes run. But not last week. Last week, Rice ranked 2nd among the team’s WRs in routes run (25), earning a season-high 55.6% route share, while also leading the WRs in targets (6). He’s still not a player you can totally trust in your starting lineup, but we’re trending in the right direction. And as much as it pains me to say it, it seems Rice – and not Kadarius Toney or Justyn Ross (now facing legal troubles) – is clearly the most valuable fantasy WR on this team.

• Without D.K. Metcalf last week, Jaxon Smith-Njigba had season-highs in route share (78.6%), target share (29.2%), aDOT (10.4), and fantasy points scored (16.3). He averaged 0.32 TPRR, which ranked 12th among all WRs on the week. And all of these numbers have been trending up for several weeks now, as Seattle has shifted towards more 11 personnel. For instance, JSN’s route share: 61% > 72% >75% > 79%. And then, by air yards: 13 > 24 > 37 > 73. It’s still going to be an uphill battle for him – given that this is a run-first offense with clearly established studs on the boundary – but given how high I was on him as a prospect, I remain somewhat optimistic he might be able to overcome that disadvantage… Although I’ll be honest, it’s a little disturbing that UDFA rookie Jake Bobo (4.99 forty-yard-dash) tied JSN in route share last week and was similarly productive in each of their last two games.

• Marvin Mims has only 4 receiving yards over his last 3 games, but he did hit a season-high route share of 41.9% last week. I’d recommend holding him throughout the trade deadline, and then dropping him if Courtland Sutton and Jerry Jeudy remain on the team.

• Ever so quietly, Kendrick Bourne ranks 20th among all WRs in XFP/RR (0.48). He's clearly New England's WR1 – his 50 targets are more than twice as much as the next-closest Patriots WR. And he’s been productive too, exceeding 17.0 fantasy points in back-to-back games (perhaps uncoincidentally, the only two games JuJu Smith-Schuster sat out)… Last week rookie Demario Douglas was the clear WR2, ranking behind only Bourne in route share (72.7%), target share (16.7%), and yards (54). On a small sample size, Douglas ranks 21st among all WRs in TPRR (0.27) and 22nd in YPRR (2.37).

• In Week 7, Jordan Addison caught 7 of 10 targets for 123 yards and 2 scores. His 31.3 fantasy points were the most of any Minnesota WR this year. And he accomplished all this on just a 64% route share – he missed multiple drives due to cramping. If you exclude the 4th quarter, when Addison ran only 3 routes, he earned a 36.4% first-read target share (11th-most on the week). Addison has now exceeded 16.0 fantasy points in 4 of 7 games, averaging 15.0 FPG (19th-most among WRs). And this is a historically great start to an NFL career… Suffice it to say, AddiSZN is upon us, and the breakout is fully here. Even if you still have concerns regarding Addison’s ability to be an NFL WR1 (like I did several months ago) or want to nitpick the impact of touchdowns on his FPG average, it’s hard to imagine him failing (at least until Justin Jefferson returns). There are few spots better than Minnesota for a WR1 – Minnesota ranks top-5 in dropbacks per game, passing YPG, passing touchdowns per game, and catchable throw rate. I’ll be starting Addison as a mid-range WR2 this week.

• I still maintain that Odell Beckham Jr. is probably fully cooked, but it seems important to mention that he led Baltimore in targets last week (7), while also ranking 7th among all WRs in TPRR (0.35).

• Diontae Johnson made his return last week, but George Pickens out-targeted him 8 to 6. This is particularly notable because Pickens out-targeted Johnson only twice all of last year. Pickens has now eclipsed a 20.0% target share in 5 straight games. And over this span, he ranks 12th in target share (28.0%) and 5th in YPRR (3.18). Genuinely, this was a shocking revelation to me. These are incredible numbers, and Pickens has been quietly balling out this year without Johnson. Unfortunately, it was just a little hard to tell because Pittsburgh’s offense is so run-heavy and so totally incompetent. After all, over this span, he ranks just 20th in XFP/G (15.0) and 15th in FPG (16.4).

Quick Hits (Tight Ends)

• Trey McBride ran a route on 54% of Arizona’s dropbacks last week, ahead of Zach Ertz’s 46%. And he also out-targeted Ertz 6 to 4. And now Ertz is headed to I.R. for the team’s next 4 games at a minimum… I think this is a tremendous opportunity for a player I was very high on when he was coming out of college. It’s clear the TE position is a major focal point of this offense – Ertz and McBride rank (respectively) 4th (0.25) and 5th (0.24) among all TEs in TPRR. And McBride has played exceptionally well this year, currently ranking behind only Travis Kelce in YPRR (1.87). So, he’s certainly a worthy waiver add for TE-needy teams. And he’s probably the best DFS play of the entire Week 8 slate, priced at just $2,800 on DraftKings.

• Dalton Kincaid was looking like something of a bust heading into the week – he averaged just 4.8 FPG while splitting work with Dawson Knox. But in Week 7, with Knox still playing on 63% of the team’s snaps, Kincaid led the team in receiving yards, catching 8 of 8 targets for 75 yards. And now Knox is expected to undergo wrist surgery and miss the next 4-6 games. Hopefully now – or at least until Knox returns – Kincaid can be the player you drafted him to be. And given Gabe Davis’ struggles, and really the struggles of every Buffalo receiver minus Stefon Diggs on this top-5 offense, I’m bullish on Kincaid’s potential and would be viewing him as a fringe top-10 TE this week.

• The Falcons’ decision to trade for Van Jefferson appears to have been bad news for Kyle Pitts’ owners. Heading into last week, Pitts ran 60% of his routes from the slot vs. 25% out wide. But in Week 7, Pitts ran 60% of his routes out wide. That’s a massive disadvantage for a fantasy TE – you want your TE running routes against linebackers and safeties, not against premium CBs like Carlton Davis and Jamel Dean on 58% of his routes. This was exactly what pissed us off so much about Pitts’ usage in his rookie year – he was running more routes against the league’s top CBs than players like Marquise Brown and Tyler Lockett. Then again, this doesn’t really matter if Pitts is actually really freaking good in this role. But I’d sooner bet on Pitts regressing throughout the remainder of the season.

• Darren Waller has exceeded a 22.5% target share in three straight games. He actually ranks ahead of Travis Kelce in target share over this stretch (26.8%), and also 2nd among all TEs in XFP and 3rd in fantasy points scored. Across the full season, Waller has 3 more receiving yards than Sam LaPorta, while they rank tied in targets (49) and receptions (35). The only difference has been touchdowns (3 vs. 1)… I still think there’s a pretty good chance Waller can be the Exodia-tier player I proclaimed him to be. The Giants just need their league-worst offensive line to get healthy – last week, they were still without OT Andrew Thomas, OT Evan Neal, OT Matt Peart, and C John Michael-Schmitz.

• Taysom Hill’s snap share has jumped up from 33% to 59% over the last two weeks. Over this span, he’s seen 106 air yards (7th-most among TEs), 6 carries (with 3 coming inside the 10-yard-line), 13 targets (6th-most), 27.1 XFP (5th-most), and 29.1 fantasy points (5th-most).

• Over the last three weeks, Dallas Goedert ranks 2nd in FPG (17.9), although he ranks just 9th in XFP/G (11.9) and 9th in target share (20.5%).

• Travis Kelce ranks behind only Tyreek Hill in XFP/RR (0.68) and FP/RR (0.77). But his route share has fluctuated week-to-week as he's dealt with injury. 56% > 61% > 83%> 47% > 65% > 71%… Basically, Kelce is already a fantasy god, averaging a position-high 20.8 FPG, which is +25% more than the next-closest TE, and would rank 7th-best among all WRs. And he could easily become the most valuable player in all of fantasy (like he was in 2022 if measured by VORP) if his usage rates stick as his route share continues to climb.

• Michael Mayer’s volume wasn’t as impressive as it was in Week 6, when he led the team in receiving yards (75). But his usage was still pretty good – he ran a route on 67% of the team’s dropbacks (before the starters were pulled) for the second straight week in a row. If his usage continues to trend upwards and Las Vegas’ offense – the most highly condensed offense in fantasy football – starts to spread the ball around a bit more, I could see him putting up low-end TE1 production in the second half of the season.

• Last week, with Pat Freiermuth out, Connor Heyward led the TE position in route share (92.9%). His volume wasn’t as good as his usage – catching 2 of 3 targets for 23 yards – but we don’t really need to see much more than that route share when we’re talking about a $2,600 TE on DraftKings. Or at least that would be the case if McBride wasn’t already the nuts.

• T.J. Hockenson has seen at least 8 targets in 10 of his last 11 full games, averaging 9.5 targets and 15.2 FPG over this span. Over the last two weeks without Justin Jefferson, he ranks 5th among all players in TPRR (0.36). In my eyes, Hockenson is fantasy football’s clear TE2, at least until Jefferson returns.

Top Regression Candidates

DraftKings XFP Values

1. Alvin Kamara, RB (3.5X)

2. Noah Brown, WR (3.5X)

3. Darrell Henderson, RB (3.3X)

4. Kyle Pitts, TE (3.2X)

5. Marquise Brown, WR (3.1X)

6. Robert Woods, WR (3.1X)

7. Zay Jones, WR (3.1X)

8. Miles Sanders, RB (3.0X)

9. Alexander Mattison, RB (2.9X)

10. Jonathan Mingo, WR (2.9X)

11. Michael Thomas, WR (2.9X)

12. Elijah Moore, WR (2.9X)

13. Kendrick Bourne, WR (2.9X)

Minimum Fantasy Points Lost Due to Defensive Pass Interference + Fantasy Points Negated by Penalty

1. A.J. Brown, WR (25.4)

2. Calvin Ridley, WR (23.8)

3. Keenan Allen, WR (22.9)

4. Courtland Sutton, WR (22.5)

5. Justin Herbert, QB (21.5)

6. C.J. Stroud, QB (21.2)

7. Tyler Lockett, WR (20.0)

8. Josh Allen, QB (19.3)

9. Terry McLaurin, WR (19.1)

10. Kirk Cousins, QB (18.7)

XFP per Team Play

1. Alvin Kamara, RB (0.34)

2. Ja’Marr Chase, WR (0.33)

3. Justin Jefferson, WR (0.32)

4. Tyreek Hill, WR (0.32)

5. Keenan Allen, WR (0.31)

6. Stefon Diggs, WR (0.31)

7. Jakobi Meyers, WR (0.30)

8. Christian McCaffrey, RB (0.30)

9. Josh Jacobs, RB (0.30)

10. Davante Adams, WR (0.30)

11. Puka Nacua, WR (0.30)

12. Kenneth Walker, RB (0.29)