The Everything Report: 2023 Week 6

Hello, and welcome to “The Week 6 Everything Report,” formerly known as “the Usage Report” or “the XFP Report,” but for you long-time readers, it’s the exact same article with a different name. If you’re unfamiliar with XFP, I’ll get to that in a little bit.

What is this article?

If you’re new to this article… Every week we’re going to be telling you which players are seeing the best volume for fantasy, most often measured by Expected Fantasy Points (XFP). We’ll be telling you who the best buy-low and sell-high candidates are, typically measured by Points Above Replacement (PAR), or the differential between actual- and expected fantasy points. This is an especially effective approach in DFS, where players are typically priced by production rather than volume, though PAR will regress to the mean. And (at the end of the article) we’re going to be telling you who the best volume-per-dollar DFS plays are.

What is XFP?

You can access our complete XFP database (which includes other advanced stats like air yards, deep targets, and end-zone targets) here.

Expected fantasy points (XFP) is flat-out the best and most comprehensive way of measuring a player’s volume. It’s telling you – based on a player’s unique usage – how many fantasy points that player should have scored. It’s telling you how many fantasy points a perfectly league-average RB, WR, or TE would have scored with that same exact volume. It looks at every individual carry by down and distance and distance from the end zone and every individual target by depth of target and distance from the end zone, and then cross-references each carry and target to each carry and target with those specific qualifiers over a multi-year sample to tell you what exactly those carries and targets are worth (historically).

Expected touchdowns (XTD), same thing. RBs score from the one-yard line on 54% of their attempts. RBs score from the 17-yard line only 3.6% of the time. So why ever use “red zone carries,” which treats both carries the same, as a fantasy stat? I have no idea.

Why doesn’t everyone point to XFP in their fantasy research? I have no idea. Once you have XFP and XTD, you can contrast that with a player’s actual fantasy points or actual touchdown total to tell you how efficient a player has been (PAR). This is especially useful in highlighting regression candidates, buy-low targets, and mispriced players for DFS.

Through 5 weeks of action, here are the top 30 players in expected fantasy points (XFP) per game:

The Top 30 XFP Leaders

4 Things To Know

1. The Bengals are back? The Bengals are back!

the Bengals had the worst offense in football heading into last week. They ranked dead last among all teams in points per drive (0.95). Yes, worse than the Jets, Giants, Steelers, Patriots, etc. But last season, they ranked 5th-best by the same stat (2.36). In Week 5, they averaged 2.83 points per drive, while Joe Burrow threw for 317 yards and 3 touchdowns, after averaging 182.0 (30th) and 0.5 (32nd) to start the year.

If Joe Burrow really is back – or is at least close to being back to full effectiveness – this offense could immediately jump from worst in the league to top overnight. Thus, fantasy managers rostering names like Burrow, Ja’Marr Chase, Tee Higgins, and Joe Mixon should start to expect their teams to score a lot more fantasy points.

And it really does look like Joe Burrow is back. There was that 10-yard scramble, the 63-yard touchdown pass (that traveled 50 yards in the air), but it was this play (that actually resulted in a sack) in which Burrow’s mobility seemed most fully back:

Without any mobility (due to the calf injury), Burrow was basically Daniel Jones in the pocket. This is to say, defensive pressure made it nearly impossible for him to play the position with any effectiveness. In Jones’ case, it’s because he has a historically incompetent offensive line. In Burrow’s case, it was because he had the mobility of a Hellenistic sculpture. With no chance at evading the rush nor biding himself more time (one of Burrow’s greatest strengths as a passer), Burrow was forced to throw the ball as quickly as possible at the first hint of pressure.

But things improved mightily in Week 5, and everyone seemed to benefit.

Chase scored an insane 52.2 fantasy points – since Chase entered the league, there have only been two instances of a WR clearing 50 fantasy points in a regular season game, and both of them were by Chase. He did this on 172 air yards and 19 targets (including 4 end zone targets), which was good for 37.2 XFP – the 2nd-most by any player over the last three seasons.

Chase’s usage this year is quite a bit different than it was last season. Chase is running fewer “go” routes while seeing more first-read targets, as well as more designed targets such as screens. This will no doubt help to reduce Chase’s notoriously high week-to-week volatility. But it has also helped lead to the best volume of Chase’s career – Chase currently leads all players at all positions in both XFP (averaging 22.1 per game) and XFP per team play (0.34).

Anyway, I’m sure you already know what you have in Chase. He’s a stud, and a DFS must-play every week until Tee Higgins comes back.

Joe Mixon, meanwhile, appears to be a screaming buy-low target.

Joe Mixon, 2022: 65% snap share (12th-most), 62% carry share (6th-most), 44% route share (14th-most)

Joe Mixon, 2023: 75% snap share (7th-most), 79% carry share (most), 48% route share (11th-most)

Mixon’s usage is in many ways better than it was last year – when he, believe it or not, ranked 2nd among all RBs in XFP/G (18.8). It’s just been a little hard to tell due to Cincinnati’s inability to sustain drives and reach the red zone. But it was a little easier to tell on Sunday when Joe Mixon earned 25 carries (4 inside the 5-yard line) and 4 targets (1 inside the 5-yard line) resulting in 31.8 XFP (the most by any RB in any week this season). But Mixon ran bad with touchdown luck – a common theme from last year, minus his 5-touchdown game in Week 9 – and scored only 13.4 fantasy points. He currently ranks 6th in red zone carries (17), having handled 100% of the team’s backfield carries inside the red zone, but only has one touchdown on the year to show for it. Better days surely lie ahead, and I’d bet on him finishing the season as a low-end RB1 at worst.

Tee Higgins might be a strong buy-low target as well. Although – as we saw last season – I don’t expect him to keep pace with Chase like he did in 2021. I think Chase is just the alpha now, pushing Higgins down to mid-range WR2 value.

Tyler Boyd, meanwhile, is nothing more than a DFS trap. Last week, Trenton Irwin both out-scored (14.0 fantasy points to 9.9) and out-targeted him (10 to 7) while only running 3 fewer routes (35 to 38). Chase and Higgins have missed a combined 5 games over the past two seasons, and Boyd failed to clear 45 receiving yards in each of those games. Irwin, however, had 4 touchdowns across the 5 games he played on at least 45% of the team’s snaps last year. Despite how he looks, Irwin is a legitimately enticing DFS play this week, priced at just $3,300 on DraftKings.

2. The Miami Dolphins are the most efficient offense the NFL has ever seen. Their individual players possess massive league-winning potential for fantasy.

Miami’s offense has been historically productive – their 2,568 total yards from scrimmage is the most by any team through their first 5 games all-time – and almost unfathomably efficient. De’Von Achane is the only RB in any season since at least 1940 to exceed 100 rushing yards and average at least 10.0 YPC in three different games. He’s now done that three weeks in a row.

Tyreek Hill is averaging a league-best 5.05 YPC. Keep in mind, just last year, he set the PFF-era single-season record for YPRR (3.20).

Tua Tagovailoa currently leads the league in passing yards per game (322.8), and his 9.7 YPA average ranks 2nd-best since 1960, behind only Kurt Warner’s 9.9 in 2000.

And as a collective unit…

Yes. Miami is due for a massive efficiency regression to the mean – both the offense as a whole and for many individual players. And while I do think this is true, and a regression will come, I just don’t think it will be anywhere close enough to disprove our Week 4 thesis, that Miami is now the top power-law offense in football, and by a pretty wide margin.

Absolutely nothing has changed since I told you all of this several weeks ago (see: previous hyperlink). Tyreek Hill is still probably the most valuable WR in fantasy. Tua Tagovailoa is still an easy every-week top-6 fantasy QB. Jaylen Waddle is due for some pretty serious positive regression (more on this a little later) and will probably finish the season as a low-end WR1, making him a strong buy-low target. And it wouldn’t shock me if Miami has two RBs finishing as fantasy RB1s, even though that’s only happened two other times over the past 30 years.

Well, I suppose, the backfield is a little bit more complicated now with Achane expected to miss multiple weeks with a knee injury, and also with Jeff Wilson set to be activated off of I.R. (21-day window).

Hopefully, Achane’s injury isn’t too serious. Whenever he returns, you need to be valuing him as if he were rookie season Alvin Kamara reincarnated.

Raheem Mostert is currently fantasy football’s RB3, averaging 21.4 FPG. You should be starting him every week until you hear something different from me. (More like Raheem Must-Start, amirite?) I’ll continue to monitor usage every week moving forward. It’s worth noting that Mike McDaniel has employed a 3-way committee backfield multiple times throughout his San Francisco tenure. But that would only be relevant when or if all of Mostert, Wilson, and Achane are fully healthy.

Given the uncertain timeline regarding Achane’s injury, Jeff Wilson is definitely a player you to be aggressive in acquiring. Wilson has never been anything special, but with the way this offense is looking, McDaniel really might just have the Midas touch – where you could throw any RB into this offense (so long as they’re familiar with the scheme like Wilson surely is) and produce a fantasy-relevant player. It doesn’t seem likely at the moment, but if we knew Wilson would be fully healthy this week and not on any sort of snap limitation, I’d be viewing him as a mid-range RB2, and Mostert as a low-end RB1.

3. The Rams probably have two fantasy WR1s in Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua.

A team having two RBs who both finish as fantasy RB1s is incredibly rare – it’s happened only twice over the last 30 seasons. But a team having two WRs both finish as fantasy WR1s is pretty common. For instance, just over the last three seasons:

2022 Miami Dolphins: Tyreek Hill (WR2), Jaylen Waddle (WR8)

2022 Philadelphia Eagles: A.J. Brown (WR6), DeVonta Smith (WR9)

2021 Los Angeles Chargers: Keenan Allen (WR11), Mike Williams (WR12)

2020 Minnesota Vikings: Justin Jefferson (WR6), Adam Thielen (WR10)

2020 Seattle Seahawks: D.K. Metcalf (WR7), Tyler Lockett (WR8)

Sean McVay’s Rams already came dangerously close to accomplishing this feat twice. In 2018 Robert Woods and Brandin Cooks both finished top-15, as did Cooper Kupp and Woods in 2019. But in Week 5, the Rams’ passing attack seemed far more highly condensed than it did in either of those two seasons:

Cooper Kupp: 39.0% air yardage share, 32.4% target share, 40.0% first-read target share

Puka Nacua: 40.2% air yardage share, 29.7% target share, 26.7% first-read target share

Combined: 79.2% air yardage share, 62.1% target share, 66.7% first-read target share

Nacua finished the week ranking 8th in XFP (18.9) and 11th in fantasy points scored (20.1), while Kupp ranked 9th (18.6) and 12th (19.8).

Obviously, this is great news for anyone who owns either of these players (or Matthew Stafford!). Nacua looks like perhaps the best possible pick you could have made at ADP. And, so long as he stays healthy, Kupp should come close to returning Round 1 value.

This does, however, render Tyler Higbee somewhat obsolete, but you likely weren’t counting on him anyway. Tutu Atwell ranked 3rd on the team in route share (88%), behind Nacua (93%) and Kupp (88%), but that’s always going to be a high number because the Rams run 11 personnel at the highest rate in the league (96% of dropbacks). However, his target share fell to a season-low 13.5%, down from 20.5%. He’ll post a few spike weeks before the end of the season, but I doubt he’s ever going to be a player you feel good about starting so long as Nacua and Kupp both stay healthy.

Kyren Williams appears to have lost some value as well. Through five games, he’s finished 11th>3rd>8th>5th>25th among all RBs in XFP. Williams earned a 14.8% target share over his prior three games (not far off of Gabe Davis’s 14.9% even after his 10-target game on Sunday), but that fell to just 5.4% on Sunday. I remain very high on him – he’s still dominating the backfield in terms of usage – but I’m now viewing him as more of a low-end RB1 rather than as a top-6 option.

4. Okay, so, Zack Moss could be a legitimate problem for Jonathan Taylor owners.

Last week in this space, I wrote – “Jonathan Taylor is looking like a mid-Round 1 asset you bought for pennies on the dollar (early Round 5 ADP).”

And, well, I’m not so sure about that now. The version of me from 9 months ago never would have believed I would say this today, but – Moss might just be too good not to siphon touches away from Taylor.

Last week, in Taylor’s return game, Moss’ snap-share barely budged: 76% in Week 3, 81% in Week 4, to 80% in Week 5. The Colts were playing against the league’s best run defense, which hadn’t allowed an RB to reach 70 rushing yards or 20 fantasy points against them in 20 straight games. But Moss did a whole lot more than that against them:

Moss hasn’t just been excellent. He’s been supra-2021 Jonathan Taylor levels of good.

Obviously, this isn’t likely to continue for too much longer. Taylor is going to take back over this backfield eventually. But it’s also very likely that Moss has been good enough to force a 70/30 or even 60/40 split backfield.

I’ll be avoiding both RBs in DFS this week, but you can make a compelling case for either one if you’re a large-field tournament player. Neither RB is going to be owned, and we should expect the Colts to lean run-heavy again with Anthony Richardson out (+5% run rate with Gardner Minshew under center). Moss is no doubt mispriced ($6,200, RB13) if we get word Taylor is going to again be limited to a snap count like he was last week. And maybe that makes sense – Taylor has barely played any football since last Christmas, and missed all of training camp, so he’s nowhere near as familiar with this new Shane Steichen offense as Moss is. And then, of course, Taylor makes sense because, well, he’s Jonathan freaking Taylor. And have you seen what Zack freaking Moss has done in this offense?

Quick Hits (Quarterbacks)

• Lamar Jackson hasn’t looked this good since 2019. He scored 22.9 fantasy points against Cincinnati in Week 2. Minus that game, the Bengals are giving up just 14.9 FPG to opposing QBs (would rank 9th-best). The next week, he scored 28.2 fantasy points against Indianapolis' zone-heavy defense. (Throughout his career, Jackson had always struggled against zone defenses.) The next week, Jackson scored 28.1 fantasy points against a Browns defense which had held opposing QBs to just 6.2 FPG heading into the week. And then last week… Well, last week was rough, but Jackson had arguably his best-ever game as a passer, earning a 93.4 PFF passing grade (most by any QB in any week this season). But it was hard to tell by the stat line, as his receivers dropped a staggering 7 passes (117 air yards) including 2 end zone targets.

• Jalen Hurts averaged just 2.7 scrambles and 11.3 scramble yards across his first three games, but that's jumped up to 4.0 and 33.5 over the last two weeks. Hurts has also attempted 37 or more pass attempts in 3 straight games, but he cleared that mark only twice all of last year… Anyway, yeah, it’s not a sure thing, but this is exactly what I was hoping for when I had him ranked as my top QB this past offseason.

• Anthony Richardson is the most athletic QB in NFL history, but he also might be made of glass… But the upside he’s shown is fully apparent and astronomically high – he currently averages 29.2 fantasy points per four quarters, well ahead of the next-best QB (Josh Allen, 24.9).

• In three NFL seasons, Justin Fields had never eclipsed 17.0 passing fantasy points in a single game – something C.J. Stroud has already done 3 times, and something Cousins has done 20 times over the same span. Well, that was up until Week 4, before Fields eclipsed 27.0 passing fantasy points in back-to-back games. Add to that, Fields had a season-high 10 designed rushing attempts last week, up from 3.5 per game across his first 4 games… I get that this all came against some pretty bad defenses, but I think Fields is back to being who you drafted him to be. This is to say, a highly volatile fantasy asset who will ultimately finish as a high-end or mid-range QB1 for fantasy.

• Brock Purdy has thrown 10 or more passes in 11 career regular season games. The 49ers have scored at least 30 points in 10 of those games. So, basically, that happens in over 90% of his games, versus the next-best QB (Josh Allen), who accomplishes this feat only slightly above 50% of the time. Purdy currently averages 19.2 fantasy points per career start (would have ranked 7th-best last year). If including the postseason, Purdy ranks 5th-best in fantasy points per dropback (0.58, sandwiched in between Josh Allen and Patrick Mahomes) since the start of last season… Last week in this space, I wrote, “[Purdy] is a high-end QB2 for fantasy in most weeks moving forward, and could legitimately become a fantasy star if he ever wanted to be as greedy inside the red zone as Josh Allen or Joe Burrow.” And, well, the touchdown regression is starting to come through — Purdy threw for four touchdown passes and scored a career-high 26.1 fantasy points last week.

• Over the last two seasons, Jared Goff averages 22.1 FPG at home, but only 12.2 FPG on the road. For perspective, 22.1 FPG would rank right behind Jalen Hurts (22.6) to rank 4th-best among all QBs, while 12.2 FPG would rank directly ahead of Kenny Pickett (11.7), who ranks 29th. Goff’s next two games are on the road.

• Trevor Lawrence is due for a massive regression to the mean, but I also don’t think he’s ever going to be worth the draft pick you spent to acquire him.

• Baker Mayfield scored 23.9 fantasy points in his last game – a game in which Mike Evans missed the entirety of the second half. Mayfield currently ranks 14th in fantasy points per dropback (0.49) and 5th(!) among all QBs in EPA per play (0.188). Obviously – given Mayfield’s track record – this doesn’t feel sustainable. And it probably isn’t, but I do think the Buccaneers are going to remain an underrated team to target in DFS moving forward.

Quick Hits (Running Backs)

• As I’ve been saying, Travis Etienne is either a mid-range RB1 or a high-end RB2. It all depends on whether or not Tank Bigsby and Doug Pederson let him score any touchdowns. Well… Over the last two weeks, Etienne has handled 100% of the team’s snaps (6 of 6) and 100% of the team’s carries inside the 10-yard line (3 of 3). He’s now finished top-12 at the position in XFP in each of the last three weeks. And across the full season, ranks 4th in snap share (78.4%), 4th in carries per game (19.0), 5th in route share (52.4%), 10th in target share (10.9%), 9th in XFP/G (16.1), and 6th in FPG (18.4). Yeah, he’s looking to me like a mid-range RB1.

• Josh Jacobs’ usage remains amazing, and significantly better than it was last year (when, mind you, he finished as fantasy football’s RB3). He currently ranks 3rd in XFP per team play (0.32), 3rd in snap share (78.9%), 3rd in carry share (71.3%), and 1st in target share (17.7%, up from 10.6% last year). He ranks 2nd among all RBs in XFP/G (19.7), although he ranks only 11th in FPG (15.6). In other words, he’s a massive positive regression candidate. If he maintains this usage and Las Vegas can be just league-average in terms of red zone trips and sustained drives, he should finish no worse than as a mid-range RB1 for fantasy.

• He’s only played two games, but Alvin Kamara technically leads all players in XFP/G (22.9). Through those two games, he’s earned an insane 26.2% target share. For perspective, Josh Jacobs ranks 2nd among RBs with just 17.7%. And among WRs, Kamara would rank 15th, just ahead of Justin Jefferson (26.0%). Keep in mind, Kamara also saw 22 carries last week. Last week, prior to Mac Jones’ second interception when the game got out of hand, Kamara played on 78% of the team’s snaps, handling 21 of 24 carries and 2 of 4 targets out of the backfield. He’s now finished top-6 among RBs in XFP in back-to-back weeks.

• Derrick Henry remains the most gamescript-sensitive fantasy player of all time. Don’t bet on a bounce-back performance this week, as the Titans are 4.0-point underdogs against the Ravens.

• Dameon Pierce has yet to clear a 58% snap share in any individual game thus far, but he is seeing a larger share of the team’s backfield XFP: 51% > 69% > 64% > 71% > 87%. And he has seen at least 21 touches in back-to-back games. He’s definitely (at least technically) a positive regression candidate, ranking 13th in XFP/G (15.8) but just 26th in FPG (10.4) since Week 2. He’ll benefit from a healthier offensive line (LT Laremy Tunsil and LG Tytus Howard already made their returns last week), but also, Houston might just be better off throwing a whole lot more.

• Tony Pollard remains a massive regression candidate (-3.7) for all of the reasons we’ve been saying. It was just never going to come in a Week 5 matchup against the 49ers.

• Since Week 2, but excluding the 4th quarter of Week 3 (a non-competitive blowout victory), D’Andre Swift averages 19.7 carries, 3.7 targets (12.4% target share), 18.4 XFP, and 19.8 fantasy points per four full quarters. If over the full season, those numbers would rank 4th-most, 14th-most (10th-most), 6th-most, and 7th-most (respectively). He’s priced as just the RB14 on DraftKings this week ($6,100).

• Breece Hall’s breakaway speed is fully back – as evident by his 70-plus yard runs in Week 1 and Week 5 – and it appears HC Robert Saleh was true to his word, that Hall is no longer on a pitch count. In Week 5, Hall handled 22 of 27 carries and 3 of 6 targets out of the backfield, scoring 28.4 fantasy points (or 15.2 minus one long run) on 16.5 XFP. Although he handled 63% of the team’s backfield XFP, he played on only 52% of the team’s snaps. Which sort of suggests he might offer league-winning potential – imagine if Hall maintains this efficiency and the Jets also handed Hall the third-down role? (Carter ran almost twice as many routes as Hall on Sunday.) Hall’s Week 5 performance and usage were impressive, no doubt. But it also came against – easily – the league’s worst defense, which is giving up an insane league-high +16.7 schedule-adjusted FPG to opposing RBs. On a horrible Zach Wilson-led offense, I suspect Hall will finish the year as a mid-range RB2 for fantasy, with maddening volatility week-to-week.

• Khalil Herbert (high ankle sprain) could be out for the next 4-6 weeks. Roschon Johnson is currently in the concussion protocol. If he can’t clear it in time for Sunday’s game against the Vikings, D’Onta Foreman would become one of the best DFS values of the Week 6 slate, priced as the RB43 ($4,400) on DraftKings. The Bears backfield collectively ranks just 21st in XFP/G (20.5), but Johnson would need only 65% of that to become one fo the top-3 volume-related values at the position. And – after the Bears gave FB Khari Blasingame 100% of the snaps following the injuries to Herbert and Johnson – I wouldn’t be surprised Foreman gets all of the work next week (so long as Johnson sits).

• Tyler Allgeier averages 17.0 touches per game in wins, but only 8.5 touches per game in losses. The Falcons are favored by 2.5 points against the Commanders this week… But if you think Vegas is wrong and the Commanders actually win, Brian Robinson would be an amazing DFS play – he ranks 2nd among all RBs in XFP market share when leading (33.9%), although that falls to just 35th when trailing (11.9%).

• Following James Conner’s injury early in the 2nd quarter of last week’s game, Emari Demercardo played on every one of Arizona’s backfield snaps (42), while also earning 10 carries and 3 targets. He might not be very good, but this is elite highest-end bell cow usage. Even if the return of Keaontay Ingram muddies things a bit, Demercado is still a clear top DFS value priced as just the RB26 on DraftKings ($4,900).

• Alexander Mattison’s snap share has plummeted over the last two weeks: 73% > 75% > 80% > 66% > 53%.

• My love for Jaleel McLaughlin remains unchanged from last week. He’s mostly just a fun little (literally tiny) player to root for, but, then again, he is also (no hyperbole) the most productive runner in college football history. Some good news – he’s led the backfield in XFP in back-to-back weeks. Some bad news – he’s averaging only 8.0 carries and 3.5 targets per game over this stretch. Some more good news – in spite of that, he’s still averaging 96.5 YFS/G and 18.7 FPG over this stretch.

• Jaylen Warren only ranks 28th in FPG (10.0), but he’s out-scored Najee Harris in every game this year.

• I would never have guessed this would be the case for James Cook – a player I had pegged as being of the scatback-plus archetype when he came out of college – but he’s been weirdly very sensitive to negative gamescript this season. When trailing, Cook’s XFP market share falls to just 7.2%, down from 21.4% when leading. This season he’s averaging 15.9 FPG in wins versus just 7.7 FPG in losses. I suppose the good news this week is that there’s no way the Bills lose to the Giants on Sunday Night, right?

Quick Hits (Wide Receivers)

• Justin Jefferson is going to be out for at least the team’s next four games with a hamstring injury, and potentially longer if the Vikings decide to give up on the season. Kirk Cousins currently leads the league in passing touchdowns (13) and passing attempts (204), while ranking 2nd in passing yards (1,498). Even if the passing attack takes a step back in terms of efficiency (which it undoubtedly will), there’s plenty of volume to go around for the other receivers (Jefferson leaves behind 10.6 targets per game in his wake). So, who would be the biggest beneficiary? Well, I know who it’s not going to be – K.J. Osborn, the literal worst WR in football this year. TE T.J. Hockenson will surely benefit, perhaps pushing him closer to Travis Kelce and further cementing his status as an Oligarch TE. And then, as I’ve been saying, I think it’s only a matter of time until Jordan Addison reaches league-winner status. Week 5 was a step in the right direction – he caught 9 of 6 targets for 64 yards and a touchdown. However, following Jefferson’s injury, Brandon Powell actually led the team in target share (28%), just ahead of Osborn and Addison (22%), and also receiving yards (42) on just 62% of the team’s routes. Expect the Vikings to play more 12 personnel without Jefferson (like they did in the 4th quarter last week), but Powell is still a decent DFS dart-throw this week (in part because Osborn is terrible), priced at the site minimum over on DraftKings ($3,000).

• A Jaylen Waddle spike week is coming sometime soon, I assure you. Last week, Waddle led the team in targets (10) and XFP (22.4) but scored only 14.5 fantasy points. This was the 3rd-most XFP of Waddle’s career, and his 2nd-worst ever performance (falling 7.9 fantasy points shy of his expectation). Before that, he had out-scored his XFP by +114% over the last two seasons, the 3rd-best mark of any WR over this span. He’d be a strong buy-low target if your league-mates are viewing him as anything less than a high-end WR2.

• Since Week 2, Adam Thielen ranks 5th among all WRs in FPG (23.7), 7th in XFP/G (19.6), 3rd in total targets (44), and 6th in first-read targets (34). He’s a screaming value on DraftKings again this week, priced as just the WR22 ($5,900).

• Last week in the DFS Breakdown I argued, “If we knew DeAndre Hopkins was fully healthy, he’d be one of the best plays of the entire slate.” Hopkins has been dealing with a high-ankle sprain for several weeks now, and even mild Grade 1 sprains can take several months to fully heal. But Hopkins looked close to fully back last week – according to one of our film charters, “I thought it was the best he looked in over a year.” He earned a season-high 92% route share, as well as 11 targets (his most since the Week 1 game in which he first injured his ankle). He scored 22.0 fantasy points on 19.6 XFP. Despite possibly being on a snap count prior to last week (75% route share through the first four weeks), Hopkins ranks 7th in target share (28.5%) and 7th in first-read target share (36.5%).

• Contrary to what Jerry Jones has said, the Cowboys need to target CeeDee Lamb more, not less – Lamb ranks 15th in yardage market share (32.9%) but only 33rd in target share (21.2%). By all key metrics, Lamb’s usage is considerably worse than it was last year: by target share (21% vs. 27%), by air yardage share (27% vs. 35%), by first-read target share (24% vs. 34%), and by aDOT (8.5 vs. 10.5). This desperately needs to change, and it should, although Jones’ comments are making me nervous.

• D.J. Moore leads the league in yardage market share (53.2%) and owns the only perfect passer rating when targeted (158.3). Moore’s first-read target share has jumped from 27.5% (25th-most) to 50.0% (best) over the last two weeks. It seems Justin Fields has discovered that good things happen when targeting your best player. Who would have thought?

• Okay, so Zay Flowers’ usage and volume are legitimately incredible, especially now after Week 5 – his third double-digit target game, and one in which he earned a season-high 170 air yards (nearly 3x his previous high). Among all WRs, Flowers now ranks 9th in target share (27.3%), 2nd in designed throw rate (30.8%), and 22nd in XFP/G (14.6). I’m still definitely a hater relative to the hype, but I think we should expect no worse than high-end WR3 production for however long this continues.

• Brandon Aiyuk is playing out of his mind. Among all WRs, he ranks 2nd in air yardage market share (49.1%), 12th in target share (27.0%), 5th in TPRR (0.31), and 2nd in YPRR (4.30). Aiyuk has now seen a target share of at least 25% in 7 straight games – the longest active streak in the NFL. He’s priced as just the WR19 on DraftKings this week ($6,200), even though he ranks 10th among all slate-eligible WRs in DK FPG (19.2). It’s a brutal matchup on paper (against the Browns coming off of a bye), but this game should also be a lot more competitive than the 49ers have become accustomed to (4.0-point spread), which should help lead to more raw volume for Aiyuk. And this is the sort of schematic matchup that Aiyuk typically dominates – the Browns play man coverage at a top-5 rate in the league (37.8%), and Aiyuk ranks 6th-best in fantasy points per route run against man coverage since the start of last season (0.67), well ahead of his marks against zone (0.46).

• On DraftKings, Nico Collins is priced as just the WR27 ($5,600) even though he ranks 11th among all slate-eligible WRs in DK FPG (19.14); slightly ahead of Amon-Ra St. Brown, who is $2,100 more expensive. After flopping in a worst-possible matchup last week, Collins is a clear top value with massive upside, especially if Tank Dell fails to clear the concussion protocol. (Collins has twice cleared 30.0 DK fantasy points thus far, while Dell has cleared 20.0 DK fantasy points twice.)

• Robert Woods is either a DFS value ($3,800, WR45) or a DFS trap. He’s earned at least 6 targets in every game this year (averaging 8.0 per game), and his 12.5 XFP/G is 97% of Nico Collins’ workload this season (12.9 XFP/G). But in the second half of last week’s game (following Dell’s injury), John Metchie ran twice as many routes as Woods did (10), and Woods ran only 1 more route than Xavier Hutchinson (5 to 4). Metchie is a decent DFS dart throw for MME players if Dell misses, priced at just $3,100 on DraftKings.

• Skyy Moore and Marquez Valdes-Scantling are easily 2 of the 3 worst WRs in football. The Chiefs desperately need to come to their senses and get these players off the field, to give more playing time to any of… Rashee Rice, because he ranks top-12 in YPRR. Justyn Ross, because Patrick Mahomes recently comp’d him to DeAndre Hopkins (which has long been my upside-comp for him). Or Kadarius Toney, because I’m (*sobs*) holding so many bags.

• Against man coverage, Marquise Brown averages 2.60 YPRR to Michael Wilson’s 0.00. Against zone coverage, Brown averages 1.82 YPRR to Wilson’s 3.01. Their Week 6 opponent – the Rams – are pretty balanced (14th-highest rate of zone). But in Week 7, the Cardinals get a Seattle defense that plays zone at the 3rd highest rate in the league.

• Through the first three quarters of last week’s game, Christian Kirk led the Jaguars in route share (95%), ahead of Calvin Ridley (84%), Evan Engram (84%), and then Zay Jones (58%). This is an encouraging sign for Kirk – and a clear departure from his usage in Week 1 and in the preseason – but HC Doug Pederson may also have just been playing things conservatively with Jones in his first game back from injury. (He did re-aggravate that same injury late in the game, and is now considered to be day-to-day.) Kirk is a “fine” play this week against the zone-heavy Colts, before getting ideal matchups against the man-heavy Saints and Steelers over the next two weeks.

• Unsurprisingly, replacing the hyper-mobile Anthony Richardson with the statue-like Gardner Minshew should be good news for Indianapolis’ low-aDOT slot WR. Thus far, Josh Downs’ target share has climbed from 15% with Richardson to 24% when Minshew is under center. Downs quietly ranks 38th among WRs in XFP. He’s priced as just the WR41 by salary on DraftKings ($4,100) this week, but the Jaguars rank 4th-best in schedule-adjusted FPG allowed to opposing slot WRs (-5.0), which is where Downs runs 88% of his routes.

• Michael Pittman is averaging just 6.0 targets per game over the last two weeks, down from 11.3 across the first three weeks. But that's mostly just a function of Indianapolis running the ball a lot more of late. Pittman is still one of only 4 WRs to earn a target share of at least 20% in all 5 games this year (joining A.J. Brown, DeAndre Hopkins, and Garrett Wilson). Minshew has targeted Pittman (29%, would rank 7th-most) even more frequently than Richardson (26%), and I’d bet he sees double-digit targets this week against Jacksonville. The Jaguars are tough against slot WR (see above), but rank 2nd-worst in schedule-adjusted FPG allowed to opposing outside WRs (+10.1).

Quick Hits (Tight Ends)

• Logan Thomas is currently averaging 6.9 targets and 13.6 fantasy points per four full quarters. Both numbers would rank 4th-most among all TEs. Obviously, this is great news for me – I have Thomas in all of my FFPC TE Premium leagues. But this hasn’t been great for Terry McLaurin and Jahan Dotson owners. McLaurin currently ranks 63rd among all receivers in target share (16.2%, tied with Tyler Boyd), while Dotson ranks 81st (14.7%), just barely ahead of Chig Okonkwo (14.6%).

• I feel like Evan Engram is being somewhat slept on. He’s seen exactly 8 targets in four straight games. He’s seen 35 targets thus far – exactly as many as Calvin Ridley – and ranks 3rd among all TEs in targets per game (7.0). If we pretended touchdowns were worth zero fantasy points, then he’d also rank 3rd among TEs in FPG (11.0), just barely behind T.J. Hockenson’s 11.1. He’s a strong DFS value this week, priced as just the TE6 on DraftKings ($4,500).

• Mark Andrews’ market share and per-route metrics are down considerably from last season, while the team continues to feed Zay Flowers. But he did hit a season-high in targets (10) and XFP last week (18.7). Lamar Jackson is looking the best he’s ever seen from him as a passer, and Andrews also ran 45 routes last week (his most in any game since 2021). Hopefully, Jackson’s efficiency and Baltimore’s faster-paced, more pass-heavy tendencies will help offset the fact that he’s no longer the team’s clear No. 1 receiver.

• Last week in this space, I wrote “Jake Ferguson currently ranks behind only Travis Kelce in both TPRR (0.30) and XFP/RR (0.56). The only issue is he ranks just 32nd in route share (54%). If this ever changes, he could be a real fantasy difference-maker.” And, well, it looks like it’s changing. Ferguson saw a season-high 73% route share (9th-most) last week. Hopefully, this is just Dallas brass coming to their senses, and the healthy return of Peyton Hendershot isn’t going to spoil this.

• In Week 5, Darren Waller looked quite a bit like the player you drafted him to be, catching 8 of 11 targets for 86 yards. Interestingly, Week 5 was maybe the week I was least optimistic about him – in a press conference earlier in the week, Waller hinted that with Daniel Bellinger banged up, he’d be forced to block more and run more chip routes. Nonetheless, this was encouraging. And in case Daniel Jones misses this week, it’s important to note that Waller’s target share rose from 20% with Daniel Jones to 27% with Tyrod Taylor under center.

• Although he’s still well behind a number of the other rookie TEs, it was something of a coming-out party for Michael Mayer in Week 5. For the first time this season, he ran more routes than Austin Hooper (14 to 10).

• Dalton Schultz smashed in a perfect matchup last week – the Falcons are the league’s top TE funnel defense – but I’m still skeptical he’s ever going to be a player you‘re happy to start. Prior to last week, Schultz ranked just 27th among all TEs in target share (10.5%).

• It’s pretty crazy that Sam LaPorta has been a clear upgrade on what the Lions had in T.J. Hockenson last year.

Top Regression Candidates

DraftKings XFP Values

1. Zach Ertz, TE (3.5X)

2. Kyle Pitts, TE (3.5X)

3. Alvin Kamara, RB (3.4X)

4. Robert Woods, WR (3.3X)

5. Logan Thomas, TE (3.3X)

6. Jakobi Meyers, WR (3.2X)

7. Jonathan Mingo, WR (3.2X)

8. Tutu Atwell, WR (3.1X)

9. Marquise Brown, WR (3.1X)

10. Zay Jones, WR (3.0X)

Minimum Fantasy Points Lost Due to Defensive Pass Interference + Fantasy Points Negated by Penalty

1. A.J. Brown, WR (25.4)

2. Calvin Ridley, WR (22.3) 3. Courtland Sutton, WR (19.8)

4. Terry McLaurin, WR (19.1)

5. Stefon Diggs, WR (18.3)

6. Sam Howell, QB (16.8)

7. Marquez Valdes-Scantling, WR (16.2)

8. Trevor Lawrence, QB (15.5)

9. Russell Wilson, QB (15.2)

10. C.J. Stroud, QB (15.1)

11. Josh Allen, QB (14.8)

12. Kirk Cousins, QB (13.8)

XFP per Team Play

1. Ja’Marr Chase, WR (0.34)

2. Alvin Kamara, RB (0.33)

3. Cooper Kupp, WR (0.33)

4. Davante Adams, WR (0.33)

5. Justin Jefferson, WR (0.32)

6. Christian McCaffrey, RB (0.32)

7. Josh Jacobs, RB (0.32)

8. Puka Nacua, WR (0.30)

9. Keenan Allen, WR (0.30)

10. Tyreek Hill, WR (0.30)

11. Austin Ekeler, RB (0.30)

12. Stefon Diggs, WR (0.29)

13. A.J. Brown, WR (0.28)

14. Jakobi Meyers, WR (0.28)

15. Tony Pollard, RB (0.27)