Fantasy Points Data: Most Important QB Stats

This article series is a deep dive into all of the metrics that our fantastic data collection team has procured from charting every single NFL game over the last two years.

We are thrilled to offer access to our entire hub of tools to you for $200 ($50!!) for the 2023 season. The Fantasy Points Data Suite will be your go-to for NFL research – forever. Our fast filtering system displays hundreds of data points in seconds, all quickly digested into your preferred fantasy scoring system.

With the last two years of Fantasy Points Data at my disposal, I studied which stats matter the most at each position regarding fantasy football. To do this, I ran correlation tests across hundreds of metrics – seeking statistical signals.

What We’re Studying

For this study, we only want to look at fantasy-relevant players. To make sure backup quarterbacks don’t skew the numbers, only passers with at least 150 dropbacks were included.

This data spans the last two seasons (2021-22).

All correlation data is ranked by strongest (+1 | perfectly positive), weakest (0.0 | no correlation), to negative (-1 | perfectly negative).

Here are all of the key quarterback statistics and how they correlate to fantasy points:

Volume Passing Stats

At the top, typical passing stats correlate best to fantasy points. What this data means is that yards, touchdowns, and dropbacks have the strongest relationship to actual fantasy scoring.

We see that rushing stats matter a lot – but to a lesser degree than passing stats. Of course, there are major exceptions to the traditional rules now.

Jalen Hurts tied Josh Allen for the QB1 fantasy finish last season with 22 passing scores compared to Allen’s 35.

Meanwhile, Daniel Jones (15 Pass TDs) was the QB9 in fantasy points per game (18.1) due largely to a career-year rushing.

Drafting fantasy quarterbacks that run and create plays is not a new idea. However, these metrics make it clear that scrambling is a highly desirable skill.

Note that scrambles (0.58) correlate to fantasy points better than rushing touchdowns (0.51).

To the surprise of no one, Justin Fields led all QBs in scrambles per game (4.4) last season. But the #2 quarterback in scrambles per game – Daniel Jones (3.4) – used his legs to extend plays more often than at any point in his career.

Avoided Sacks are another key stat we need to pay attention to.

Our in-house collection team charts Avoided Sacks as any successful attempt to evade a pressuring defender, and it makes logical sense that sack avoidance matters for fantasy.

Sacks are mostly a QB stat and are very sticky year to year. That means the quarterbacks who avoid sacks (think Tom Brady) largely do so every year, while more sack-prone QBs (think Russell Wilson) routinely take more hits than average.

The quarterbacks with the best pocket mobility and awareness aren’t just scramblers like Hurts, Lamar Jackson, or Justin Fields – they are pocket wizards like Justin Herbert and Joe Burrow.

Over the last two years, Burrow has avoided 47 sacks – the same figure as Patrick Mahomes – while Herbert is right behind them with 46 avoided sacks.

Justin Fields (77), Josh Allen (75), Jalen Hurts (62), and Lamar Jackson (62) are the top-four QBs in Avoided Sacks over the last two years.

Sack avoidance and scrambling ability is a skill, and our data does a great job at providing that necessary statistical context.

Let’s dig deeper into our treasure box of stats and take a look at some efficiency stats using the same methodology.

Efficiency Passing Stats

Because there are so many factors that go into a successful play, there is no single catch-all efficiency metric for quarterbacks that is absolutely perfect.

Some stats are better than others, of course.

Our in-house completion and accuracy data looks strong relative to traditional metrics.

Fantasy Points Data exclusive metrics are:

• Catchable throw rate

• Off-target throw rate

• Turnover-worthy throw rate

• Pressure rate over expectation

• Avoided sacks per pressure

• First read throw rate

• Hero throw rate

• CPOE

CPOE is our in-house formula completion rate over expectation, based on several factors like field position, down and distance, and the difficulty of the throw. Note that CPOE correlates better to fantasy points than standard completion rate.

Catchable Throw rate is any pass that was deemed “on-target” for the receiver to have a chance to catch. There is some clear correlation between being accurate and being a good fantasy quarterback, although maybe not to the degree to which you thought.

The top-6 QBs in catchable throw rate last year were:

1. Andy Dalton (79.4%)

2. Joe Burrow (79%)

3. Geno Smith (78.8%)

4. Tua Tagovailoa (78.5%)

5. Ryan Tannehill (78.5%)

6. Daniel Jones (78.4%)

While the bottom-6 quarterbacks were:

35. Zach Wilson (63.2%)

34. Deshaun Watson (68.8%)

33. Taylor Heinicke (70.3%)

32. Justin Fields (70.4%)

31. Russell Wilson (71.4%)

30. Joe Flacco (71.7%)

After missing nearly two years of football, Deshaun Watson predictably struggled as a passer in 2022. However, as you will see below, his pocket presence and escapability were still on point.

Watson also suffered from a league-high 7.6% drop rate, which doesn’t change anything about his catchable throw rate, but all of his receivers’ drops certainly compounded what was a tough Browns debut. I’m heavily betting that Watson and HC Kevin Stefanski figure it out this year. If Watson’s accuracy can bounce back, the sky's the limit for the Browns' offense this season.

Think of Off-target throw rate as “wild throws” in baseball. These passes were just so wildly inaccurate that not even prime Calvin Johnson could catch them.

These quarterbacks had the most off-target throws last season (ranked from most to least) from the Fantasy Points Data Suite:

Just how predictive is off-target throw rate? Well, four of the 5 most off-target quarterbacks last season lost their starting jobs – Wilson, Wentz, Mariota, and Mills.

While Mariota struggled badly last season, we have similar accuracy concerns with Desmond Ridder. It was only a four-game sample size, and Ridder did not play with Kyle Pitts, but our collection team tagged Ridder as off-target on a league-high 25.7% of his passes from a clean pocket last season.

Hero Throws are extraordinary passes that maximize the result of a play, or basically throws that make you say, “Holy shit.”

Unsurprisingly, Josh Allen led the league in Hero Throw% last season at 7.6%… followed by Aaron Rodgers (6.5%) and Geno Smith (6.3%). Count me in the camp that believes Rodgers is not washed and has at least one good year left.

Turnover-worthy throw rate is our collection team’s way of saying “this throw should have or did result in an INT.”

Last year, Taylor Heinicke (6.9%) and Zach Wilson (5.8%) were charged with the two highest rates of turnover-worthy throws.

Avoided Sacks per pressure is a new stat I am working to integrate, and it’s simply dividing Avoided Sacks by total pressures faced.

The top-6 QBs in avoided sacks per pressure were:

1. Justin Fields (0.272)

2. Zach Wilson (0.237)

3. Marcus Mariota (0.211)

4. Deshaun Watson (0.197)

5. Josh Allen (0.189)

6. Lamar Jackson (0.176)

Fields topping this list is unsurprising, along with Allen and Jackson ranking highly.

Deshaun Watson had his worst season as a passer last year, but it’s clear he still had his usual pocket awareness and mobility. Watson’s great sack avoidance is a good skill-related argument in favor of him bouncing back in 2023. A full offseason of practice and preparation will do wonders for Watson’s accuracy/timing. I’m buying Chubb, Watson, and the Browns' offense in fantasy.

You can sort through all of these statistics at your own pace on our Advanced Passing page.

Quick Hit - Efficiency Takeaways

• Note that Deep Throw Rate has a stronger relationship to fantasy points than aDOT (average depth of target).

• First Read% is the percentage of times a quarterback targets the first read on a play. This stat is Brett Whitefield’s brainchild and is intended to be a descriptive scheme-related stat. For example, Cooper Kupp led all players in first-read target share last season (which should surprise no one).

Split Stats

One of the coolest things about the Fantasy Points Data Suite is our extremely powerful split tool (found in the left menu dropdown).

We have statistical splits in every tool, and for quarterbacks specifically, you can look up things like Patrick Mahomes’ numbers against every coverage scheme in Advanced Passing.

We can also split passing stats by play-action…

This means that Mahomes had a 124.3 passer rating and averaged 9.1 YPA on play-action last season vs. a 98.5 rating and 7.8 YPA on non-play action throws.

And by throw type…

Split Stats - Pressure vs. Kept Clean

One of my favorite ways to analyze quarterback splits is by narrowing down what happens when the pocket is kept clean vs. when a passer is pressured.

Analyzing quarterbacks through the lens of what happens when they are kept clean is one way to control for the effect of the defense on a play.

Basically, the idea is to eliminate the effect pressure has on a passer and just look at what they do when given a clean pocket. Can they make reads and deliver accurate passes?

Passer rating and catchable throw rate from a clean pocket look like two excellent efficiency stats as it relates to fantasy points…

On plays where the quarterback is kept clean, the NFL average passer rating is 96.7 with 7.4 yards per attempt, compared to a 67.1 rating and 6.0 YPA when the QB is pressured.

Accuracy is a huge factor in this equation.

The NFL average catchable throw rate from a clean pocket is 79.4%, compared to a lowly 60.5% when pressured.

We see a corresponding jump in off-target throw rate, with passers missing wildly off-target on 14.7% of their passes from a clean pocket vs. 20.8% of the time when they’re pressured.

These were the top-10 QBs in catchable throw rate from a clean pocket last season…

1. Patrick Mahomes (85.5%)

2. Kyler Murray (84.7%)

3. Daniel Jones (84%)

4. Geno Smith (83.9%)

5. Kirk Cousins (83.9%)

6. Joe Burrow (83.5%)

7. Matt Ryan (83.5%)

8. Andy Dalton (83.3%)

9. Mac Jones (83.3%)

10. Dak Prescott (83.2%)

And this is the top-10 from a clean pocket-passer rating perspective…

1. Patrick Mahomes (119.1)

2. Jalen Hurts (114.5)

3. Tua Tagovailoa (113.2)

4. Jared Goff (112.9)

5. Taylor Heinicke (111.3) – WTF?!

6. Brock Purdy (110.8)

7. Jimmy Garoppolo (110.3)

8. Geno Smith (107.8)

9. Joe Burrow (103.4)

10. Justin Herbert (100.6)

Only three QBs made the top-10 on both lists – clean pocket passer rating and catchable throw rate. They are Patrick Mahomes, Geno Smith, and Joe Burrow.

Mahomes and Burrow are unsurprising, but these numbers further highlight how great Geno Smith’s 2022 season was. And now he has a truly dominant 3-WR set between Metcalf-Lockett-Smith-Njigba.

Seattle ranked 8th in pass rate over expectation last season in a clear flip of their previously run-heavy tendencies. Geno might not finish as QB5 again, but this Seattle passing attack is dripping with upside.

Before we wrap up this article, I will leave you with a question. Is Mac Jones bad, or is he just the most pressure-sensitive QB in the league?

I’m leaving the light on for Mac Jones this season and it’s not just because his clean pocket stats still look very solid. He also played through the middle of last season with a high ankle injury and had a completely inept offensive coaching staff. It can’t get worse. Can it?

You can sort through all of these statistics from this article on our Advanced Passing page.