With Fantasy Points Data — a project we’ve worked on for nearly two years behind the scenes before launching in 2023 — we wanted to answer one big question: what if we tailored all of the data our team has gathered (hand-charted from our team of experts) directly to the fantasy player?
Based on years of playing season-long fantasy, dynasty, and DFS — and using all the charted data out there to build models and try to gain an advantage in a game where the margins are shrinking — we believe we’ve found where we can do things better. That is the Fantasy Points Data Suite.
Using Fantasy Points Data, I wrote a (FSWA nominated!) weekly column last year called the Mismatch Report. It identified the biggest OL/DL and WR/CB mismatches of the week based on our data.
But now, we have an actual NFL scout, Scott DiBenedetto, breaking down our OL/DL matchups. So I will make this a column focused on some WR/secondary matchups that I’m identifying as either problematic or potentially juicy for fantasy.
WR/CB Tool
Our WR/CB Matchup Tool is sortable with loads of matchup data.
A note on our process: there are very few situations in the NFL in which one receiver will match up with one corner for the vast majority of his routes. So honestly, WR/CB matchups in the traditional sense are perhaps the most overrated form of fantasy analysis.
We aim to do them better: our process breaks down how many routes a receiver runs from a certain alignment, and assigns a weighted score based on how much that receiver is expected to see a given defender based on those alignments. So it will measure how often we expect a receiver to face all defenders in a matchup, not just one particular defender, and weigh a score by those expected percentages.
If I do believe there will be a “shadow CB” situation, I’ll mention it and break down the matchup.
SHADOW ALERT! Patriots CB Christian Gonzalez vs. Titans WR Calvin Ridley
From a shadow coverage perspective, Gonzalez had his best game of the season in Week 8. He followed Davante Adams on 85.7% of his routes last week, as I projected in last week’s column. And in his primary coverage, he allowed just 1 catch for 16 yards on 3 targets. Now, I’ve also spent plenty of ink in this column this year saying that Gonzalez isn’t some Darrelle Revis-level “Avoid! Avoid!” matchup, but he is a very good player, and the Patriots trust him with their hardest draws.
This week, that will be Ridley, quite obviously. The Titans already traded away DeAndre Hopkins. And following that deal, Ridley had by far his best game as a Titan, catching 10 passes for 143 yards on 15 targets against the Lions in Week 8. It was only the third time all season Ridley saw a catchable target rate above 60%, which is insane.
In fact, 12 of Ridley’s 15 targets from Mason Rudolph were deemed catchable, per Fantasy Points Data. In his previous six games this season, just 16 of his 34 targets were deemed catchable, which should be impossible. The bad news for Ridley this week is that — in addition to drawing shadow coverage from Gonzalez — Will Levis could return from a shoulder injury (he has returned to practice). Levis has actually delivered a catchable ball on a higher percentage of throws than Rudolph this year — 76% to 69.5% — but for some reason, he has had atrocious chemistry with Ridley.
Maybe that’s just a fluke, and with Hopkins gone, Levis will have no choice but to pepper Ridley with targets. But it is worth mentioning in the event Levis does play. I think Ridley is a volume-driven WR3 this week, albeit in a projected low-scoring environment (this is the only game with a projected point total under 40 on the Week 9 slate).
SHADOW ALERT! Broncos CB Patrick Surtain vs. Ravens WR…?
The Ravens have been absolutely annihilated on the back end defensively, and that’s why it was surprising to me that they chose to address the offensive side of the football before the trade deadline, bringing in WR Diontae Johnson from the Panthers. I did not have a positive reaction to this deal from a fantasy perspective.
The Ravens have a 9th-lowest pass rate over expectation in the NFL this season, and were negative in that department in five straight games before going back in the green in Week 8’s loss to the Browns. And no team in the NFL has run fewer snaps than the Ravens out of 11 personnel (1 TE, 3 WR). So why is Baltimore adding a wide receiver?
My take is the Ravens aren’t going to suddenly become a Rams-style 11-personnel team. Their TE and FB-heavy packages dictate the personnel packages defenses can play, and Lamar Jackson is seeing the field presnap about as well as he ever has. Instead, I think the Ravens are sick of the drops from Rashod Bateman and Nelson Agholor, and they want a more reliable outside WR so they can shift Zay Flowers into the slot on a more permanent basis.
Flowers has run 35.1% of his routes out of the slot this season. Among WRs with 50 or more slot routes, Flowers’ 3.15 YPRR is 5th-most in the NFL. Meanwhile, the Panthers used Diontae outside 78% of the time, and I think the Ravens simply want to use their best receiver where he’s had the most success.
I’m not sure that is going to pay dividends immediately. First of all, Diontae probably won’t play a full route share — and when he does play, he’ll probably see Surtain shadow coverage on the outside. And Broncos slot CB Ja’Quan McMillian is no slouch — the Broncos allow a 2nd-fewest -4.2 schedule-adjusted FPG to opposing slot receivers this season.
Because of this matchup and the expected playing time limitations, Diontae is unplayable and Zay is more of a WR3. But if Flowers’ slot rate increases in the future, it will pay dividends.
Obviously, both guys are seriously downgraded if Lamar Jackson (back/knee can’t play).
Eagles WR AJ Brown vs. Jaguars DBs
I might as well join the conga line of articles on this site — and every other site — touting AJB this week.
Not a single receiver in the NFL is more dangerous against Man coverages than Brown. And when Brown has a 1-on-1 matchup, QB Jalen Hurts will often check to a Go ball and let Brown run under it. And the Jaguars play a ton of Man.
The only question is how much the Eagles, who have been the run-heaviest team in the NFL since their Week 5 bye, will have to throw it in this game, as 7.5-point favorites against the Jaguars. But even if Jalen Hurts is in the low-20s in pass attempts again, there’s plenty of reason to think Brown can do plenty of damage. Remember, when Hurts completed just 10 passes for 114 yards and a score against the Giants in Week 7, Brown had 50% of the completions, 78% of the yardage, and 100% of the touchdowns.
It’s lack of projected volume — and that alone — that is preventing us from projecting AJB as our overall WR1 this week. He will be very popular in the DFS and prop markets.
A.J. Brown is absolutely demolishing man-to-man coverage with a ridiculous 9/182/2 receiving result (5.35 YPRR!) on 34 routes
— Graham Barfield (@GrahamBarfield) October 31, 2024
Jacksonville has played man coverage on at least 40% of opponents pass plays in 6-of-8 games: pic.twitter.com/qRgXCmNAcl
Saints WR Chris Olave vs. Panthers CBs
First of all, the Saints don’t have anyone else to throw to — last week, Olave saw 58% (!!!) of the team’s targeted air yards, with Spencer Rattler and Jake Haener at QB. And say what you want about Derek Carr, but Carr returning from an oblique injury is good news for New Orleans and Olave.
The irony here is that Olave was the only Saint who didn’t go off against the Panthers in Week 1, catching both of his targets for just 11 yards — Carr threw 3 TD in the game but needed to attempt just 23 passes. But this has been an exploitable matchup all year. Perimeter CBs Mike Jackson and Jaycee Horn have allowed the 4th-most schedule-adjusted FPG to opposing perimeter WRs this year (+4.1). With Rashid Shaheed on IR and Carr back, this is a potential blowup spot for Olave, and I expect him to be popular in DFS.
Giants WRs Malik Nabers vs. Commanders CBs Benjamin St-Juste and Mike Sainristil
You might remember the meeting of these two teams from back in Week 2, when the Giants became the first team in NFL history to score 3 TDs, surrender none… and lose.
That was not the fault of Nabers, who posted 10/127/1 in that contest — the Commanders seemed to blow the coverage on Nabers’ short TD, though St-Juste was aligned across from him at the snap. It is worth noting that Nabers did a lot of damage on since-benched CB Michael Davis, who allowed 3 catches for 62 yards to Nabers in his primary coverage, while also missing a bunch of tackles. And it was Davis’ struggles that led to the Commanders moving the rookie Sainristil outside (he had done most of his work in the slot up until that point).
Nonetheless, our WR/CB Matchup Tool is still bullish on this matchup for Nabers (and Darius Slayton, to a lesser extent). Even excluding the Commanders’ first two games of the season, St-Juste has allowed 278 yards receiving in his primary coverage, 7th-most in the NFL over that span.
Fire up Nabers as a WR1, and Slayton is a viable DFS dart throw.
Chargers WR Ladd McConkey vs. Browns CB Greg Newsome
McConkey just had a breakout game in Week 8, hauling in 6 passes for 111 yards and 2 TD against the Saints. Nothing much has changed about his role — he paces the Chargers in first-read target share since the bye — but he’s had a pretty consistent target percentage all year.
What has changed for McConkey is that the Chargers are passing the ball more overall — they actually have a positive PROE since their Week 5 bye after being one of the most run-heavy teams in the NFL prior to it. The play of Justin Herbert has been too good for Jim Harbaugh to ignore.
This week, McConkey also draws a good matchup. We’ve charted Newsome with allowing 364 yards in his primary coverage, most of any CB who has played 50% or more of his coverage snaps in the slot, where McConkey runs about 70% of his routes. Over the last five games, Newsome and the Browns are allowing +3.7 schedule-adjusted FPG to opposing slot WRs, 6th-most in the NFL.
It’s a great spot for McConkey to continue to cook, and I love him as a WR2 this week.
Colts WR Josh Downs vs. Vikings DBs
As I wrote in last week’s column, it is unfair to put all the Vikings’ troubles covering slot WRs at the feet of Byron Murphy. As our Brett Whitefield told me, Minnesota tends to play slot-CB-by-committee, with Murphy, Harrison Smith, and Josh Metellus all splitting work there.
But the results are the results, and the Vikings have allowed the 2nd-most schedule-adjusted FPG to opposing slot WRs this year… including the most over the last five weeks.
That’s absolutely fantastic news for Downs, who runs an overwhelming 83% of his routes inside. But even better news for downs is the fact that Joe Flacco is back in the starting lineup for the Colts. Downs has finished as a top-20 PPR WR in each of Flacco’s two starts this year, posting 16/138/1 receiving on 21 targets. I don’t think there’s a single player in the NFL whose value gets boosted this much from a single QB change.
Downs is a potential WR1 this week, and I might play FanDuel specifically to get access to him on the main slate.
Packers WR Jayden Reed vs. Lions CB Amik Robertson
Robertson is one of the scrappiest players on a Detroit roster filled with guys with attitude — he forced two fumbles with the Peanut Tillman punchout against the Titans last week, and he’s one of the best-tackling slot CBs in the NFL, despite his 5’9”, 180-pound frame.
But it’s hard to ignore the fact that the Lions have gotten absolutely debacled in the slot — their +8.4 schedule-adjusted FPG allowed to slot WRs is 58% higher than the next-worst team (Minnesota). Reed doesn’t have a huge size advantage over Robertson, but we know he’s capable of putting together absolutely massive games, despite a quiet stretch.
If Jordan Love (groin) plays, Reed is on the WR2 radar against Detroit in a potential shootout.
Broncos WR Courtland Sutton vs. Ravens DBs
This is more of a “wait and see” kind of blurb. The Ravens are hemorrhaging points in the secondary, having allowed a league-high +11.5 schedule-adjusted FPG to all WRs, and a league-high +6.6 to outside WRs. All of that is great news for Sutton.
But keep in mind that the Ravens were severely shorthanded against the Browns last week, with both Marlon Humphrey and Nate Wiggins missing the game with injuries. Both have returned to limited practice this week. If both go, that’s not a panacea for this defense, but it certainly helps.
Remember that Broncos QB Bo Nix has been far better at home than on the road this year — 6.30 ANY/A with 7 TD and 3 INT at home, while an awful 3.83 ANY/A with 1 TD and 2 INT on the road. Denver is hitting the highway in Baltimore this week.
I think Sutton is a WR2 if one or both of Humphrey and Wiggins are ruled out, and more of a WR3 if they play.
Jets WRs vs. Texans DBs
No, the Jets haven’t shown the shutdown secondary their reputation says it is, and Sauce Gardner in particular has had a tougher year than anticipated. But injuries have had something to do with that, and the Jets are back to full strength in the CB room. And despite some uncommon struggles for Sauce, New York is still allowing just -3.9 schedule-adjusted FPG to opposing WRs, 7th-fewest in the NFL.
That will make things tough on Thursday night for Houston’s de facto #1 WR, Tank Dell, who will likely draw the most attention from this defense. Meanwhile, Xavier Hutchinson hasn’t earned any targets whatsoever filling in for Nico Collins, and Stefon Diggs replacement John Metchie might draw the league’s toughest slot CB in a matchup with Michael Carter.
This is a really brutal draw for CJ Stroud and company after losing Diggs, and a week before Collins is eligible to come off of IR. The Jets are in must-win mode, and the Texans’ inexperienced WR group has perhaps its toughest matchup of the year.
Dell is a WR3 for me. The other guys can’t be played.
Rams slot CB Josh Wallace vs. Seahawks slot WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba
It is, admittedly, a small sample. But we’ve charted Wallace as having allowed just 22 yards receiving in his primary coverage on 53 coverage snaps — the fewest by any qualified CB (50 snaps) who plays the majority of his snaps in the slot. And that’s not just a function of low volume — his 0.42 YPRR allowed is 3rd-lowest among slot defenders.
But ultimately, the Rams are a reverse slot funnel by scheme — since Brandon Staley was in town in 2020, Sean McVay has preferred to use a bigger slot defender to help defend the run and filter things outside the hashes — LA calls it the “star” position. That role used to be Jalen Ramsey’s, and the undrafted rookie Wallace has been playing it lately. So far, the results have been promising.
The Rams allowed a league-low -6.5 schedule-adjusted FPG to opposing slot receivers, 54.8% better than the second-best defense (Denver). JSN has just 6 catches for 53 yards on 11 targets in two career games against the Rams, and DK Metcalf is expected back this week.
JSN is a low-end WR3 for me.
