2024 Week 9 DFS Coverage Shells

The following teams are on a bye in Week 9:

• Pittsburgh Steelers

• San Francisco 49ers

Team Defenses

Quarterback Values

DAL @ ATL

The Dallas Cowboys (3-4) hit the road for a second straight week to take on the Atlanta Falcons (5-3) on Sunday afternoon.

The Falcons are currently 3-point home favorites and are tied for the 3rd-highest implied team total of the week at 27.25 points. The 51.5-point game total was the highest on this slate as of mid-week.

Defensively, ATL deploys zone coverage at the 3rd-highest rate in the NFL (76.3%) and deploys two-high looks at the 6th-highest rate (51.2%). Their two-high usage has steadily climbed throughout the year:

Here are notable WR/TEs in this game:

TE Jake Ferguson ($5,100) is not to be slept on when there’s opportunities vs zone and/or two-high defenses.

Offensively, DAL drops back at a 67.1% clip vs. zone (17th) and at a 42.6% clip vs. two-high (23rd). This means that DAL sees these defensive looks less than the average NFL team.

However, when DAL has seen them, Ferguson wasn’t some afterthought to teammate CeeDee Lamb ($8,800) in target frequency:

For DAL defensively, they deploy single-high looks at the 7th-highest rate (58.4%). Opposing offenses target their first-read at the 3rd-highest clip vs DAL (73.6%) and also throw deep at the 4th-highest clip (13.7%).

DAL has allowed the highest touchdown rate on red zone trips, per rbsdm (73.9%).

TE Kyle Pitts ($4,900) ranks 7th out of 140+ qualifiers with a 3.25 YPRR vs single-high looks. I found this interesting relative to his WR counterparts Drake London ($6,700) and Darnell Mooney ($6,000):

LA @ SEA

The Los Angeles Rams (3-4) travel north to take on the Seattle Seahawks (4-4) in their first matchup of the year. The Rams are currently 1-point road favorites and the game total is at 47.5.

Defensively, LA deploys single-high at the league’s 8th-highest rate (58.2%), and they’re tied for allowing the highest points per dropback to opposing QBs from single-high looks (0.57).

On early downs, LA allows 0.24 EPA per dropback to opposing offenses, 2nd-worst among defenses this season. SEA is one of the most dropback/pass-heavy offenses in the NFL:

Seahawks WRs DK Metcalf ($6,500) and Jaxon Smith-Njigba ($6,200) are priced quite similarly and both substantially higher than veteran Tyler Lockett ($5,600):

Defensively, the Rams have allowed >46% of their targets to players lined up out wide, 2nd-most among defenses this season. Their 25% slot target rate ranks dead last.

DK Metcalf has run 82.5% of his routes out wide, while Jaxon Smith-Njigba has run 86.3% of his routes from the slot.

DET @ GB

The Detroit Lions (6-1) will travel to Lambeau Field to face the Green Bay Packers (6-2) in a highly coveted NFC North matchup. The Lions are currently 3-point road favorites, and the game total is hovering around 48.5.

Defensively, DET deploys the highest rate of man in the league (43.8%). More specifically, their Cover 1 usage ranks 2nd (37.2%). Additionally, they deploy Cover 4 at the 8th-highest rate among defenses (20.1%).

DET allows the 3rd-most fantasy PPG to opposing WRs (42.9). Nearly 40% of their allowed targets have gone to players lined up in the slot, more than any other defense.

This makes you think about GB WR Jayden Reed ($6,400). What’s interesting, however, is that Reed’s been notably less efficient vs man than he’s been vs zone up to this point in the season:

Reed is 2nd in overall target share, but his weekly share has dwindled throughout each of the last four weeks:

Maybe this is a “buy low” spot for him, though. On offense, GB faces man coverage at a bottom ten rate (24.9%), so Reed’s low efficiency is also on a small sample.

CHI @ ARI

The Chicago Bears (4-3) head out west to take on the Arizona Cardinals (4-4) midday Sunday. The Cardinals are currently 1-point home favorites, and the game total is hovering around 44.5.

ARI is currently riding a two-game win streak, while CHI is coming off a gut-punching Hail Mary loss at WAS.

Both teams have above-average pass blocking units. ARI ranks 5th in PFF pass block grade (76.7), while CHI ranks 7th (72.4).

Defensively, CHI deploys single-high coverage 5th-most in the NFL (59.8%).

Offensively, ARI faces a single-high at the second-lowest frequency (44.1%) but has produced the second-most fantasy points per dropback vs. a single-high (0.58).

Rookie WR Marvin Harrison Jr. ($6,900) and TE Trey McBride ($5,800) have both shredded single-high looks this season on hefty target shares:

Contrast their efficiency vs single-high with efficiency vs two-high looks, and their numbers come back down to earth:

There are more details to consider with the Bears’ single-high usage. Single-high consists of Cover 1 and Cover 3.

CHI owns the 4th-highest usage of Cover 3 (40.6%), while their Cover 1 usage ranks 25th (18.4%):

Against Cover 3, McBride is notably more productive and commands a higher share of targets than Harrison:

But Harrison takes the cake vs Cover 1: