2024 Week 7 WR/CB Fantasy Matchups

With Fantasy Points Data — a project we’ve worked on for nearly two years behind the scenes before launching in 2023 — we wanted to answer one big question: what if we tailored all of the data our team has gathered (hand-charted from our team of experts) directly to the fantasy player?

Based on years of playing season-long fantasy, dynasty, and DFS — and using all the charted data out there to build models and try to gain an advantage in a game where the margins are shrinking — we believe we’ve found where we can do things better. That is the Fantasy Points Data Suite.

Using Fantasy Points Data, I wrote a (FSWA nominated!) weekly column last year called the Mismatch Report. It identified the biggest OL/DL and WR/CB mismatches of the week based on our data.

But now, we have an actual NFL scout, Scott DiBenedetto, breaking down our OL/DL matchups. So I’m going to make this a column focused on some WR/secondary matchups that I’m identifying as either problematic or potentially juicy for fantasy.

WR/CB Tool

Our WR/CB Matchup Tool is sortable with loads of matchup data.

A note on our process: there are very few situations in the NFL in which one receiver will match up with one corner for the vast majority of his routes. So honestly, WR/CB matchups in the traditional sense are perhaps the most overrated form of fantasy analysis.

We aim to do them better: our process breaks down how many routes a receiver runs from a certain alignment, and assigns a weighted score based on how much that receiver is expected to see a given defender based on those alignments. So it will measure how often we expect a receiver to face all defenders in a matchup, not just one particular defender, and weigh a score by those expected percentages.

If I do believe there will be a “shadow CB” situation, I’ll mention it and break down the matchup.

SHADOW ALERT! Steelers CB Joey Porter, Jr. vs. Jets WR Davante Adams

Hey Davante! Welcome to the Jets. I think you know our quarterback. Glad to see that hamstring is doing well! By the way, you’re probably going to catch a shadow from one of the best in the business this week.

Peezy Jr. hasn’t allowed single TD in his primary coverage this year, and only Michael Pittman (3 catches, 71 yards on 5 targets) has topped 2 catches or 30 yards against him.

Our projection here is that the Jets will consider Adams their primary perimeter receiver, considering Garrett Wilson already runs the plurality of his routes (36.5%) from the slot. The Jets put Wilson in motion a ton under new playcaller Todd Downing last week, and I expect that will continue with one of the game’s premier X receivers aligning on the outside (even if he’s lost a step).

I think a reasonable argument can be made that Adams will be more valuable than Wilson for the rest of the season, but in this particular matchup, I prefer Wilson, because Porter is no joke.

SHADOW ALERT! Falcons CB AJ Terrell vs. Seahawks WR DK Metcalf

As we projected last week, Terrell shadowed Diontae Johnson on his perimeter routes, and it wasn’t a shutdown matchup — he allowed Johnson to catch all 3 of his targets in his primary coverage, allowing 39 yards and a touchdown reception. Terrell has now allowed a touchdown reception in two consecutive games, after blowing a coverage to allow Mike Evans to score in Week 5.

Meanwhile, DK nearly had a massive game last week. He caught just 3 of 12 targets for 48 yards, but he was ruled out on a potential TD by a toenail, and had another long score called back.

The Falcons, including Terrell, have been giving of late to WRs. As Graham Barfield pointed out in Week 7 Start/Sit, they’ve allowed all of Evans, Diontae, DeVonta Smith, Chris Olave, and Rashid Shaheed to go over 16 FP in the last five weeks.

I think Metcalf is a borderline fantasy WR1 this week.

SHADOW ALERT! Patriots CB Christian Gonzalez vs. Jaguars WR Brian Thomas

Last week, we projected Gonzalez would shadow Tank Dell, given that Nico Collins didn’t play for the Texans, and Stefon Diggs runs the plurality of his routes from the slot. Well, I’ll call that a miss — while Gonzalez did align on top of Dell on 34.4% of his routes, he actually went into the slot with Diggs more than we anticipated — Diggs saw Gonzalez’s coverage on 51.9% of his routes, including 3 routes in the slot. And Diggs had general success against Gonzo, racking up 4/39/1 on 5 targets in Gonzalez’s primary coverage (Dell had far less success, with just 1 catch for 5 yards on 2 targets in Gonzalez’s coverage).

While Jacksonville slot receiver Christian Kirk has either tied for or led Jaguars WRs in target share in four of six games this year, I don’t think the Patriots will view him as the biggest threat — that will be the rookie Thomas, who runs about 75% of his routes from the perimeter, and on the left and right about equally.

That makes this a pretty interesting matchup. Among 141 WRs with 25 or more routes run, Thomas’ 0.056 average separation score (ASS) ranks 61st, and his 10.5% win rate ranks tied for 89th. Meanwhile, his ASS from the slot is 3rd-best — 0.293, with a 24.4% win rate (t-7th with Justin Jefferson).

So there could be a chess match going on here. Gonzalez isn’t an unassailable matchup (he’s allowed 3 TD in his primary coverage), but the separation numbers suggest Thomas is the type of receiver Gonzalez would be able to lock down. So will the Jags try to get their dangerous rookie into the slot more? And if so, will Gonzalez follow him? The Jaguars have seemed to notice that Thomas has been winning more from the slot, as his last three games have progressively seen his three highest slot route shares, with 36.4% against the Bears last week being his peak so far.

I think it’s fair to consider Thomas — the WR23 in FPG this year — more of a third WR in your lineup in this matchup.

SHADOW ALERT! Giants CB Deonte Banks vs. Eagles WR AJ Brown

The Giants trust Banks a ton — he’s shadowed Amari Cooper, Terry McLaurin, Tee Higgins (cheers to Fantasy Points Data’s Steve O’Rourke, who projected a Higgins shadow when everyone else thought it’d be Chase), DK Metcalf, and Justin Jefferson this year on over 70% of their routes. He covered CeeDee Lamb — who plays a ton in the slot — on 52.2% of his routes. So it’s not hard to project he’ll shadow Brown, too.

The problem is that Banks has struggled, at least in terms of production allowed. His 356 yards allowed in his primary coverage are tied for 4th-most in the NFL. His 4 TD passes allowed are tied for 2nd. He’s allowed a 132.3 passer rating when targeted — a perfect rating is 158.3.

So while this shadow is going to happen, there’s nothing scary here. Brown is a true Alpha WR, and he has been known to “son” young CBs — the Commanders’ Emmanuel Forbes still hasn’t recovered.

Brown is a no-doubt WR1 for fantasy.

Lions WR Amon-Ra St. Brown vs. Vikings CB Byron Murphy

We’ve charted Murphy as having allowed 339 yards receiving in his primary coverage this year. That’s 7th-most among all CBs, and the most among any CB who has played more than 10% of his coverage snaps in the slot (Murphy is the Vikings’ primary slot CB, playing 41.5% of his coverage snaps inside).

And, of course, St. Brown is the Lions’ primary slot receiver. Unfortunately, we didn’t get to see these two match up last year, as Murphy was inactive for both tilts with the Lions.

Minnesota’s secondary has been exploitable all season long, allowing +7.2 schedule-adjusted FPG to WRs — 4th-most in the NFL. This is a major pass funnel, and ARSB has the best matchup of the Lions’ bunch.

Panthers WR Diontae Johnson vs. Commanders CB Benjamin St-Juste

Keep an eye on Diontae Johnson’s status. He missed two practices this week with an ankle injury. He has played through the injury for two weeks.

The Commanders don’t shadow, but it probably wouldn’t do much good if they did — on the season, Washington is allowing a 3rd-most +7.3 schedule-adjusted FPG to opposing WRs. This is one of the most exploitable secondaries in the NFL, and Diontae is one of the NFL’s true target hogs — he’s seen double-digit targets in three of Andy Dalton’s four starts, and has come through for fantasy in all three of those games.

Diontae runs the plurality of his routes (44%) from the left side of the formation, which is where St-Juste aligns 56% of the time. So we’re projecting that to be the most likely matchup for Diontae in this game.

On the year, St-Juste has allowed 365 yards in his primary coverage, 3rd-most of any CB. His 0.43 FP/coverage snap allowed is tied for 4th-most. And this game has a projected 51.5 score total, the highest on the entire Week 7 slate.

I wouldn’t be surprised if Diontae went for 100 yards and a score in this draw, making him an easy WR1… presuming he plays.

Commanders WR Terry McLaurin vs. Panthers DBs

The thing about a high projected total in the NFL is that, typically, it takes two teams to tango. And while I like the draw for Diontae Johnson more, I still quite love it for McLaurin.

McLaurin runs close to 80% of his routes from the perimeter, where he’ll draw the coverage of Panthers CBs Jaycee Horn and Mike Jackson. Combined, Horn (4) and Jackson (3) have allowed 7 receiving TDs in their primary coverage — both ranking in the top-4 of all CBs in that statistic. They’ve also allowed 2.33 YPRR to outside WRs as a team, 4th-most in the NFL.

Washington QB Jayden Daniels likes to spread it around, but it’s easy to see Diontae and McLaurin sharing spots in a lot of DFS lineups this week.

Texans WR Tank Dell vs. Packers DBs

We have a unique position in the fantasy industry this week — we’re the only major site who is projecting Dell ahead of Stefon Diggs.

The rationale is quite simple. The Packers have been a massive outside funnel pass defense, with CB Jaire Alexander and company allowing +3.6 schedule-adjusted FPG to outside WRs (7th-most), compared to just -2.8 in the slot (8th-fewest). Dell runs over 70% of his routes outside, compared to Diggs’ 54% from the slot.

But there’s also some necessary context to apply here. With Nico Collins (hamstring) on IR, Diggs ran a season-high 70.4% of his routes from out wide in Week 6’s win over the Patriots, and averaged 3.37 YPRR from that alignment, his single best YPRR number in any game this year from inside or outside. Diggs’ 14.7 aDOT in Week 6 was also a season-high.

Nonetheless, Dell was CJ Stroud’s first read on 40% of targeted throws last week, compared to 33% for Diggs.

Jets perimeter CBs vs. Steelers WR George Pickens

I suppose the change to Russell Wilson could give Pickens a little bit more consistency. Among WRs with 10 or more targets, Pickens’ catchable target rate of 74.4% ranks 70th. (Though his 12.8 aDOT is 35th, which certainly can affect catchable rate.)

Nonetheless, if I were looking for immediate returns in that department, I’d have preferred a different matchup. While Pickens runs the plurality of his routes from the LWR position — meaning he’ll see less of Sauce Gardner than of DJ Reed — the Jets are an extreme run-funnel defense, especially when it comes to perimeter WRs.

The Jets allow -4.2 schedule-adjusted FPG to outside WRs and -6.6 to all WRs, 5th-fewest in the NFL in both categories. And of course, it’s well within the range of outcomes that the Steelers’ move off of Justin Fields and onto Wilson backfires.

I don’t consider PIckens as anything more than a volatile WR3 this week. I might have more optimism in a better matchup, but this ain’t it, baby.

Chiefs perimeter CBs vs. 49ers WR Brandon Aiyuk

Aiyuk has been frustrating this year, and if the numbers hold true, this is another spot that could make us shake our fists.

The Chiefs allow -8.6 schedule-adjusted FPG to opposing outside WRs, which is 2nd-fewest in the NFL (behind only the Titans, who don’t have many teams throwing on them all that much given they can’t score). Meanwhile — and I actually find this surprising, given Trent McDuffie is one of the best slot CBs in the NFL — they allow +2.1 schedule-adjusted FPG to opposing slot WRs, 11th-most in the league.

Aiyuk runs only 20% of his routes from the slot, far fewer than Deebo Samuel (37.5%) and Jauan Jennings (56.8%).

This matchup probably needs a deeper breakdown, but it will be interesting what kind of DFS ownership Aiyuk commands vis-a-vis Deebo.