2024 Week 7 DFS Coverage Shells

The following teams are on a bye in Week 7:

• Chicago Bears

• Dallas Cowboys

What’s also notable about Week 7 is that we have two games on Monday evening:

• Baltimore Ravens @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers

• Los Angeles Chargers @ Arizona Cardinals

Team Defenses

SEA @ ATL

The Seattle Seahawks (3-3) travel to Atlanta to take on the Falcons (4-2) this Sunday.

The Falcons own the 2nd-highest implied team total of the week (26.5), and they are currently 2.5-point home favorites. The 50.5 game total is the 2nd-highest on the Week 7 slate.

This matchup has tons of potential for passing and receiving production. SEA (63%) and ATL (58%) both have top-10 pass rates in neutral situations this season. They also play at fast paces, as ATL averages 31.3 seconds per play, the second-fastest among all offenses, while SEA averages 32.0, the third-fastest.

Both offensive pace and neutral pass rates could work together in driving up overall play volume.

On this chart, higher vertically means faster pace/tempo, and farther right means more pass heavy:

Kirk Cousins ($6,300) is priced as the QB13, while Geno Smith ($5,800) is priced as the QB16 among projected Week 7 starters.

Defensively, the Seahawks are top ten in Cover 1 usage (25.9%).

Falcons WR Drake London ($6,900) ranks 4th out of 100+ qualifiers in targets per route run vs Cover 1 this season at 37%.

Relative to his teammates, London sees a very large percentage of the first-read targets vs Cover 1:

On the other sideline, SEA pass catchers will be going against an ATL defense that ranks top five in zone coverage rate (75.8%).

Against zone, WR DK Metcalf ($6,800) has considerably higher expected fantasy production relative to his peers on a per-route basis:

BAL @ TB

The Baltimore Ravens (4-2) travel south for an out-of-conference matchup vs the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (4-2) as part of a Monday Night Football doubleheader.

BAL is currently 3.5-point road favorites and they are tied with the 3rd-highest team total of Week 7 (26.25). The game total is hovering around 49 points.

Opposing QBs have put up big fantasy numbers against each of these defenses. TB allows the 2nd-most fantasy PPG to opposing QBs (20.9), while BAL allows the 3rd-most (20.7).

Lamar Jackson ($8,000), who is priced as the DK QB1, averages the most DK PPG in the entire league (26.2), while Baker Mayfield ($6,600), priced as the QB10, averages the 2nd-most PPG this season (24.4).

Defensively, BAL allows the highest neutral pass rate to opposing offenses (67.0%), while TB allows the 2nd-highest neutral pass rate (64.4%).

So far, not too bad.

BAL allows the 3rd-most fantasy PPG to opposing WRs (44.1), while TB allows the 7th-most this season (37.8):

TB WRs Mike Evans ($7,200) and Chris Godwin ($7,100) are both expensive plays, and — assuming Evans is a healthy start — you could make the case for either of them based on the opposing secondary.

BAL has one of the more diverse coverage units, so the devil lies in the details here. They deploy two-high shells on 47.2% of their coverage snaps, 12th-highest this season.

But let’s pause for a second. When we break it down further, we can see that BAL has run Cover 3 and Cover 1 more than anything, and neither of those falls under the two-high umbrella:

Godwin dominates the two-high target opportunities while also having been the only productive pass catcher against these looks for the Bucs:

But when we isolate for just Cover 1 and Cover 3, Godwin and Evans become indistinguishable:

If Evans’ game status continues to be vague or even gets worse as the week progresses, Godwin becomes the no-brainer play of the two:

But if Evans is 100% good to go, I think he’s worth considering defensively, given the previously mentioned intricacies within BAL.

HOU @ GB

The Houston Texans (5-1) head north for an out-of-conference matchup with the Green Bay Packers (4-2) on early Sunday afternoon. The Packers are currently 2.5-point favorites, and they own the fifth-highest team total of the week (25). The game total is hovering around 47.5 points.

C.J. Stroud ($7,100) is priced as the DK QB5 on the Week 7 slate, while Jordan Love ($6,900) is priced as the QB7.

I don’t put much time into home/road or indoor/outdoor splits, but it’s interesting in the case of C.J. Stroud. He’s currently in just his second season, and his home venue has a retractable roof, so playing somewhere like Lambeau Field for the first time could certainly be uncharted waters.

Stroud’s production overall vs playing in the elements stood out to me this offseason:

Over the last two regular seasons, there have been 21 QBs to play in 8+ home and away games.

Stroud averages the most home passing YPG (311.1) and ranks 15th in away games (226.3). He ranks 6th in home fantasy PPG (21.4) and 17th on the road (15.5).

Stroud is a fantastic young QB with a very bright NFL future ahead of him. These miscellaneous tidbits were interesting.

Defensively, GB deploys zone coverage at the 11th-highest rate in the NFL (72.2%).

Texans WR Nico Collins last appeared in Week 5 after leaving due to injury/having run just 4 routes. He is now in his second week on IR. Collins is the WR1 in DK points per snap (0.48) and the WR3 in PPG (21.9).

His absence leaves a weekly dose of valuable opportunities up for grabs. Over the first month of the season, Collins had the 2nd-most end zone targets in the NFL (7), while Stefon Diggs ($7,700) and Tank Dell ($6,500) had just 1 each. Either of these WRs are viable plays with Nico Collins sidelined.

As for HOU defensively, they rank 8th in single-high usage (58.3%). More specifically, they deploy Cover 1 at the 10th-highest rate this season (25.9%).

Further, they rank 6th in usage of Cover 4 at 20.8% (reminder this is a two-high concept).

WR Jayden Reed ($7,200) ranks 2nd out of 40+ qualifiers in YPRR vs Cover 4 this season (5.04).

Reed and teammate Dontayvion Wicks ($5,200) rank in the top 10 in TPRR and XFP/RR vs. Cover 4 among those same qualifiers.

DET @ MIN

The Detroit Lions (4-1) hit the road and are set to take on the Minnesota Vikings (5-0) in a much-anticipated NFC North showdown. The Vikings are currently 1.5-point favorites, and the game total is hovering around 50.5 after opening at 49.5 points.

This game has the potential to be a memorable chess match between Lions OC Ben Johnson and Vikings DC Brian Flores.

Part of what makes Flores such a great defensive playcaller is his exotic coverage tendencies. MIN deploys two-high shells more than any defense in the league (74.4%) while also being tied for the highest usage of Cover 0 (9.3%).

MIN allows the 2nd-fewest fantasy PPG to opposing RBs (15.6) but the highest PPG to opposing WRs (44.7). Given how run-heavy DET is offensively, combined with their persistent RB usage, this game could open volume up for WRs Amon-Ra St. Brown ($8,300) and/or Jameson Williams ($6,000).

St. Brown and Williams are commanding the two-high opportunities in 2024, and they’ve far outproduced TE Sam LaPorta ($5,300) against these looks as well: