2024 Week 6 WR/CB Fantasy Matchups

With Fantasy Points Data — a project we’ve worked on for nearly two years behind the scenes before launching in 2023 — we wanted to answer one big question: what if we tailored all of the data our team has gathered (hand-charted from our team of experts) directly to the fantasy player?

Based on years of playing season-long fantasy, dynasty, and DFS — and using all the charted data out there to build models and try to gain an advantage in a game where the margins are shrinking — we believe we’ve found where we can do things better. That is the Fantasy Points Data Suite.

Using Fantasy Points Data, I wrote a (FSWA nominated!) weekly column last year called the Mismatch Report. It identified the biggest OL/DL and WR/CB mismatches of the week based on our data.

But now, we have an actual NFL scout, Scott DiBenedetto, breaking down our OL/DL matchups. So I’m going to make this a column focused on some WR/secondary matchups that I’m identifying as either problematic or potentially juicy for fantasy.

Life Update

I want to thank everyone for reaching out over the last two weeks. If you haven’t heard, I was displaced for quite some time because of Hurricane Helene wreaking havoc in the Carolinas. I was able to keep some things chugging along, but I was unable to do my radio work or write this column last week.

I certainly made out way better than others, and if you were affected by Helene or Milton (multiple members of our staff have been), I am thinking of you.

My internet service is still intermittent — thanks Spectrum!!!! — but I am so glad to be back in the saddle.

First, a note on some of the tools I’m using here.

WR/CB Tool

Our WR/CB Matchup Tool is sortable with loads of matchup data.

A note on our process: there are very few situations in the NFL in which one receiver will match up with one corner for the vast majority of his routes. So honestly, WR/CB matchups in the traditional sense are perhaps the most overrated form of fantasy analysis.

We aim to do them better: our process breaks down how many routes a receiver runs from a certain alignment, and assigns a weighted score based on how much that receiver is expected to see a given defender based on those alignments. So it will measure how often we expect a receiver to face all defenders in a matchup, not just one particular defender, and weigh a score by those expected percentages.

If I do believe there will be a “shadow CB” situation, I’ll mention it and break down the matchup.

SHADOW ALERT! Falcons CB AJ Terrell vs. Panthers WR Diontae Johnson

There’s no doubt that, in general, the Panthers’ switch to Andy Dalton salvaged our Diontae bags. But Dalton is still Dalton, and in Week 5 against the Bears, he managed an ANY/A of 2.29 — it was the 13th-worst individual performance by any QB with 15 or more dropbacks this season, though only the third-worst by a Panther QB this year (Bryce Young was real bad). So Diontae had a Diontae-with-Bryce kind of stat line in Week 5, with 3/23 on 6 targets.

The Falcons have trusted Terrell with shadowing top receivers over the last few years, and he’s lined up across from George Pickens (80%), Mike Evans (68%), and DeVonta Smith (58%) in shadow situations this year. Combined, he’s allowed 8/111/1 on 10 targets to those three in his primary coverage. (He surrendered the touchdown to Evans last week, though it was on a busted coverage that we charted to Terrell. Sometimes, it’s hard to tell.)

That being said, Terrell rarely goes into the slot, and Diontae has been a far better separator inside than outside — he’s won on 28% of his routes in the slot, compared to just 15% out wide. I wouldn’t be surprised to see the Panthers increase Diontae’s slot reps this week to avoid Terrell more often — he runs roughly 24% of his routes inside so far this year.

I still consider him a near must-start WR this week.

SHADOW ALERT! Packers CB Jaire Alexander vs. Cardinals WR Marvin Harrison, Jr.

We were robbed of an Alexander/Justin Jefferson matchup in Week 4, with Alexander sitting out with a groin injury, and he was also out against the Rams last week. He’s returned to limited practice this week, and as of now, I’m projecting him to play against the Cardinals, and he will shadow Harrison.

As we predicted, Alexander shadowed Calvin Ridley in his last game in Week 3, lining up across from him on 74.1% of his routes. But in another game of meme-worthy turnovers for QB Will Levis, Ridley went belly up, catching just 1 of 3 targets for 9 yards in Alexander’s primary coverage. But remember that AJ Brown cooked Jaire in Week 1 for 108 yards and a long TD, so Alexander — especially a dinged-up one — can be had.

Nonetheless, Marv Jr. has had just kind of a “meh” start to his NFL career. He’s the WR27 with 13.8 FPG (WR20 with 14.8 XFP/G). Among 111 WRs with 50 or more routes run, he’s 51st in ASS (Average Separation Score). He’s 33rd by YPRR, at 1.96. He’s 6th-worst among WRs in percentage of routes on which we’ve charted him with a negative separation score (17.1%).

I don’t think I’m downgrading Harrison based on this matchup, and I’m certainly not calling him a bust. He’s had a decent, if unspectacular, start to his NFL career. But ultimately, until proven otherwise, he’s more of a WR2. At the least, this game had a relatively high projected total of 47.5.

SHADOW ALERT! Patriots WR Christian Gonzalez vs. Texans WR Tank Dell

There are few, if any, CBs in the NFL who are easier to project to shadow — the Patriots have aligned Gonzalez across from his opposition’s WR1 in all of their five games this year, peaking with a 90% shadow rate of Ja’Marr Chase in Week 1 and “bottoming out” with a 53.8% shadow rate of Brandon Aiyuk in Week 4. And the reason he’s so easy to project in such a role is that the Patriots have shown a willingness to move Gonzalez inside as well — 22% of his coverage reps have come in the slot.

That being said, his shadow slot reps have decreased from 10 (Chase, Week 1), 5 (DK Metcalf, Week 2), and 14 (Garrett Wilson, Week 3) to just 1 (Aiyuk, Week 4) and Tyreek Hill (3, Week 5) the last two weeks, as the Patriots have been mixing-and-matching slot defenders.

That’s why we’re projecting Gonzalez to shadow Dell instead of Stefon Diggs, who is the Texans’ primary slot receiver. With Nico Collins (hamstring) on IR, it’s time for Dell to step up — he is the WR70 with just 7.4 FPG this year. This isn’t the best of matchups for him, though. I have him as a volatile WR3 this week.

SHADOW ALERT! Giants CB Deonte Banks vs. Bengals WR Tee Higgins

Yes… you read that right. Despite the Bengals having one of the NFL’s alpha WRs in Ja’Marr Chase, we’re projecting Banks to line up across from Higgins more often in this game — by design.

Let’s start with the nitty-gritty of the matchup. First of all, the plurality of Higgins’ routes this year — 41.2% — have come on the right side of the offensive formation, while Banks’ natural position is LCB. Moreover, Banks has gone into the slot just 6% of the time this year, while Higgins’ 20% slot rate is the lowest among the Bengals’ top three WRs.

Meanwhile, consider this. Since Higgins returned from a hamstring injury in Week 3, he leads Chase in targets (28 to 24), target share (25.9% to 22.2%), first-read target share (34.3% to 27.1%) and XFP/G (19.3 to 14.8). Chase, of course, is still pacing him in production (he’s the WR1 in fantasy points), but the Bengals have been using them as co-WR1s in their own offense.

The Giants have gotten some strong snaps out of Banks this year — he held DK Metcalf to 2/24 on 4 targets in his primary coverage last week (76.6% shadow rate) — but he’s not anywhere close to an unassailable matchup, as he’s allowed 4 TD combined to Amari Cooper, Justin Jefferson, and CeeDee Lamb.

Both Higgins and Chase are must starts, in one of the league’s pass-happiest offenses.

SHADOW ALERT! Broncos CB Patrick Surtain vs. Chargers WR Quentin Johnston

Surtain is probably the league’s best corner. He’s allowed no single receiver to go for over 29 yards in his primary coverage this year (DK Metcalf). He held Mike Evans to 1 catch for 8 yards and Garrett Wilson to 2 catches for 24 yards.

Meanwhile, Johnston has been truly shadowed once this year — Joey Porter held him catchless in his primary coverage in Week 3 (Johnston did score a TD on a bust). And QB Justin Herbert averages the fewest pass attempts per game of anyone in football (22.8). This is not a matchup I’m targeting, it goes without saying.

SHADOW ALERT! Steelers CB Joey Porter, Jr. vs. Raiders WR Davante Adams

Adams has basically quiet quit on the Raiders, and as of publication, still has not practiced with a “hamstring” injury as he and Vegas evaluate his future. Meanwhile, the Raiders’ de facto WR1 without Adams, Jakobi Meyers, has missed practice time with an ankle injury of his own.

Aidan O’Connell is taking over for Gardner Minshew this week. It almost certainly doesn’t matter from a fantasy perspective.

Bears WR DJ Moore vs. Jaguars CB Montaric Brown

Moore has clearly emerged as the favorite target for Caleb Williams, leading the Bears’ strong WR trio in basically every usage stat when all three of Moore, Keenan Allen, and Rome Odunze have played together. Meanwhile, this week he draws a Jaguar defense that has gotten crushed by outside WRs to the tune of a league-high 153.4 YPG.

Moore runs the plurality of his routes from the LWR alignment — about 48%. At that spot, he’ll mostly see Brown, who plays RCB about 77% of the time. He’s been the biggest culprit in the Jaguars’ struggles against outside WRs. We’ve charted Brown as having allowed 261 receiving yards in his primary coverage, 12th-most in the NFL.

Moore is a WR1 this week and a must-start in a spot in which the Bears should be able to keep their offensive momentum churning.

Giants WR Malik Nabers vs. Bengals perimeter CBs

Obviously, this matchup hinges on whether or not Nabers (concussion) can clear protocol and avoid missing his second consecutive game.

But this is a phenomenal schematic matchup for Nabers — fantasy’s WR1 by FPG draws a Bengal defense allowing the 12th-most receiving YPG to perimeter WRs (112.0). But it’s when the Bengals play man that Nabers should be able to feast. His 1.04 FP/RR against man coverage is the highest in the NFL, and the Bengals’ 0.59 FP/DB allowed on man coverage plays is 9th-most in the league.

Should Nabers play, I think he can go absolutely nuts against Cam Taylor-Britt and DJ Turner. If he doesn’t, Darius Slayton would be worth a WR3 or DFS dart throw.

Packers WRs vs. Cardinals DBs

It remains to be seen which Green Bay WRs will play this week — Christian Watson (ankle) and Romeo Doubs (hissy fit) both have practiced — but we do know we love this matchup for Green Bay.

First of all, Jordan Love absolutely crucifies Cover 3 — he has the league’s best FP/DB against the coverage system (0.69), while the Cardinals run Cover 3 at a 6th-highest 41.8% rate.

Moreover, we especially think Jayden Reed in the slot will have a positive draw with Kei’Trel Clark. In two games this year, Clark has played virtually every coverage snap in the slot, and he’s allowed 2.50 YPRR from that alignment. Reed is one of the most obvious starts on the slate.

But if you’re looking to potentially start a Packers outside WR? Well, there’s good news there too. Arizona is allowing the 3rd-most fantasy points per target (2.08), and the highest passer rating (125.1) to opposing WRs on the outside. The only question, of course, is if Watson plays. If he doesn’t, can ASS god Dontayvion Wicks actually catch the ball when it hits him in the hands?

Eagles WRs vs. Browns DBs

The Eagles basically gave away their Week 4 game in Tampa — not only has Todd Bowles typically had Jalen Hurts’ number, but the Eagles chose to sit WR AJ Brown (hamstring) and RT Lane Johnson (concussion), while WR DeVonta Smith (concussion) was unable to pass protocol. Coming out of Philly’s Week 5 bye, they’re exceptionally healthy, with Brown, Smith, and Johnson expected back.

The Browns… well, they’re not. They had a whopping 20 players on their Wednesday injury report, including CB Denzel Ward (hamstring), S Grant Delpit (concussion), and S Ronnie Hickman (ankle). This is an obvious get-right spot for both Philly’s offense and defense.

Both Brown and Smith are must-starts, but I especially like Brown. Per Graham Barfield in Week 6 Start/Sit, “Cleveland has played man coverage on at least 50% of their opponents' pass plays in three straight games. Over the last two seasons, Brown is averaging 3.78 yards per route run vs. man-to-man, which means that he’s +33% more efficient when he faces man coverage compared to zones (2.54 YPPR).”

Saints CB Marshon Lattimore vs. Buccaneers WR Mike Evans

By our numbers, we actually don’t expect Lattimore and Evans to line up that much. Lattimore plays almost exclusively on the right side of the defensive formation, while Evans runs only 44% of his routes from that side. But these two absolutely despise each other, and in general, Lattimore has actually gotten the best of Evans.

In one matchup last year, Evans caught just a single pass for 18 yards in Lattimore’s coverage, and in 12 games against the Saints in which Lattimore has played, Evans has topped 50 yards just five times.

With the Saints starting Spencer Rattler at QB on the other side, this game might not have a ton of offensive fireworks, but you can be sure that Lattimore and Evans will be jawing at each other.

Jets DBs vs. Bills WRs

The Bills WRs cannot get open. Full stop.

Among WRs with 25 or more routes run, Mack Hollins, of all people, leads Bill WRs in ASS (0.157 — 27th of 136 qualifiers). His win rate of 18% is just 39th. Rookie Keon Coleman has a higher win rate (19.2%), but Coleman’s ASS of 0.030 is 99th of qualifying receivers. So when Coleman doesn’t win, he is totally locked down.

Khalil Shakir, who missed last week with an ankle injury, is probably the Bills’ best separator in general, but only from the slot — he has a negative separation score from the perimeter. So his matchup with Michael Carter on the inside is the only one I’d consider trying to exploit, but as no more than a WR3.

Things are not getting any easier for Josh Allen this week after he went 9/30 last week. He’s thrown for under 200 yards in three of his last four games.

Texans CB Derek Stingley vs. Patriots WR Ja’Lynn Polk

I have gone on the record this year as being a “Sit Rookie QBs” Bro, especially when the situation is potentially disastrous. I think Drake Maye is set up to fail with this Patriots supporting cast, and his first career start isn’t exactly a great spot, either — this is a really tough Texans defense.

Polk has been better as a rookie than his numbers might indicate — his 0.196 ASS from an outside alignment is 14th among all qualifying WRs (25 or more total routes), while his 28.9% win rate out wide is 5th. But we’re projecting a tough matchup here. While I don’t anticipate Stingley will shadow Polk — the Texans have only selectively used their young stud CB to shadow — he does play 85% of his coverage snaps from LCB, where Polk runs the plurality of his routes (46.2%).

Removing Alec Pierce’s 60-yard Week 1 TD from the equation — you’ll remember that being that ungodly back-foot throw from Anthony Richardson — Stingley has given up just 0.154 FP/coverage snap, which is less than Joey Porter Jr. and a top-20 rate in the NFL.

Maye gives this Patriot offense a higher ceiling than Jacoby Brissett, but also a lower floor. Sight unseen, I’m sitting Polk until further notice, especially in such a matchup.