2024 Week 6 DFS Coverage Shells

Last week’s slate of games finally felt as though scoring had arrived. Part of that might just be the slow start to the season for many offenses throughout the NFL, but here’s to hoping this trend continues into Week 6.

The following teams are on a bye:

• Kansas City Chiefs

• Los Angeles Rams

• Miami Dolphins

• Minnesota Vikings

Team Defenses

Quarterbacks

The following chart shows DK salaries for QBs and their team’s implied point totals for the week (note the reverse x-axis). “Values” can be found above the blue trendline:

And here are a few charts showing WR/TE salaries along with various season-long metrics to identify any Week 6 “values”:

Pass Catchers

DK Salaries and Expected Fantasy Points Per Game

DK Salaries and DK Points Per Game

DK Salaries and Target Share

In theory, names above the blue trendline are “better values,” but context matters a lot in these situations. You could also argue that names far below the blue trendline are “due” for some production.

For example, Texans WR Tank Dell ($6,200) has produced enough to justify his cost up to this point. But with teammate Nico Collins sidelined by a hamstring injury, Dell’s externals change pretty drastically for the better.

DET @ DAL

The 3-1 Detroit Lions are fresh off their bye week and travel to Jerry’s World to take on the 3-2 Dallas Cowboys. The Lions are currently 3.0-point favorites and own the 2nd-highest implied team total of the week at 27.5. The game total rests at 52, highest of all Week 6 matchups.

I’m curious about the DAL passing attack here.

Opposing offenses drop back to pass at a top-five rate in neutral situations vs DET this year:

As for DAL offensively, they’re in a favorable passing spot given their projected scoring and neutral pass rate through the first five weeks of the season:

Defensively, DET allows the 2nd-most fantasy PPG to WRs (46.0).

WR CeeDee Lamb ($8,600) is the most expensive player at any position on the Week 6 slate. Let’s take a look at the weekly finishes of WRs vs DET this season:

• Week 1: Cooper Kupp: 21 tgts | 110 yds | 35.0 pts (DK WR2)

• Week 2: Chris Godwin: 8 tgts | 117 yds | 27.7 pts (DK WR6)

• Week 3: Marvin Harrison Jr.: 10 tgts | 64 yds | 17.4 pts (DK WR20)

• Week 4: D.K. Metcalf: 12 tgts | 104 yds | 19.4 pts (DK WR13)

Defensively, DET deploys man coverage at the fourth-highest rate (37.9%). This is primarily made up of Cover 1, which also has the fourth-highest usage in the league (34.5%).

Dating back to the start of the 2023 season, CeeDee Lamb ranks 2nd out of 75 qualifiers in yards per route run vs Cover 1:

Lamb’s efficiency and production on a per route basis is quite a drastic split when facing Cover 1 vs other coverage looks:

WAS @ BAL

The 4-1 Washington Commanders travel to Baltimore to battle the 3-2 Ravens in the early Sunday afternoon window.

Had the schedule makers known what they did now when originally dicing up this season’s games, one would have to imagine this game would be on national television and not in the 1:00 PM Eastern window.

At QB, it’s a battle between the reigning league MVP Lamar Jackson ($7,800) and rookie phenom Jayden Daniels ($7,300). Lamar is priced as the DK QB1 and Daniels the QB3.

BAL owns the highest team total on the Week 6 game slate (28.75), and they’re favored by 6.5 points. The game total sits at 51 points, which ranks 2nd.

Some quick hitters among these defenses:

• BAL allows the 4th-most fantasy PPG to QBs (20.6)

• WAS allows the 10th-most PPG to QBs (18.6)

• BAL allows the 4th-most PPG to WRs (44.2)

• WAS allows the 6th-most PPG to WRs (40.4)

Zay Flowers ($6,500) and Terry McLaurin ($6,400) are both priced accordingly, given the production that opposing WRs have put up against these defenses:

This game is somewhat of a conundrum in that we have two talented dual-threat QBs who can gash you as runners, but can also pick you apart as passers, especially if defenders are continually in conflict.

Each team also protects its quarterback well. They both have top-five PFF team pass block grades this season: BAL at 79.3 (3rd) and WAS at 75.4 (5th).

Defensively, WAS deploys two-high shells on 59.6% of their coverage snaps (4th).

Zay Flowers has run a large percentage of his routes vs two-high looks but has produced less against them so far this season:

BAL deploys Cover 6 at a 16.8% clip (1st) and Cover 4 at 19.7% (8th).

CLE @ PHI

The 1-4 Cleveland Browns travel to Philadelphia to take on the 2-2 Eagles at 1:00 PM Eastern this Sunday.

The Eagles are coming off a bye and lost 33-16 to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in Week 4, while the Browns enter this one after losing 34-13 to the Washington Commanders in Week 5. They are riding a three-game losing streak.

PHI is tied for the 4th-highest team total on the slate at 26 points and is currently a 9.5-point home favorite.

PHI WR A.J. Brown ($7,800) is set to play for the first time since Week 1 and the football gods have gifted him with a coverage matchup from above.

Defensively, CLE deploys man coverage (47.7%) and single-high (76.2%) at the highest rates in the NFL. They also lead defenses in using Cover 1 (44.2%).

Remember that CeeDee Lamb graph from earlier of the Cover 1 YPRR leaders since the start of last season? There was one name above Lamb on that list:

ARI @ GB

The 2-3 Arizona Cardinals travel to Lambeau Field this Sunday at 1:00 PM Eastern to take on the 3-2 Green Bay Packers.

The Packers own the 3rd-highest team total of the week (26.5) and are 5.5-point home favorites.

From a dropback/passing volume angle, this game poses some serious risks. GB owns the lowest neutral pass rate in the NFL (43%) and opposing offenses pass at the lowest rate vs ARI this season (37%).

However, opposing offenses are consistently producing positive pass plays against both the ARI and GB defensive units.

Success rate is a stat showing the percentage of plays that have positive expected points added (EPA). Meaning, on one given play to the next, did you increase your team’s likelihood of scoring? If you did, that’s a positive EPA gain.

ARI has allowed a 57.4% dropback success rate to opposing offenses, the highest among defenses (and therefore the worst among defenses) through five weeks. GB allows a 51.9% dropback success rate, which ranks third-worst.

So opponents are productive on a per-dropback basis vs both of these defenses, which supplements an already explosive element existing within ARI/GB offensively. GB (13.0%) and ARI (12.4%) rank 2nd and 3rd in explosive play percentage this season:

Kyler Murray ($6,800) is priced as the DK QB7, while Jordan Love ($6,600) is priced as the DK QB9.

Defensively, ARI deploys Cover 3 at the 6th-highest rate in the NFL (38.8%).

GB WR Jayden Reed ($7,000) and TE Tucker Kraft ($4,800) both rank inside the top 10 in yards per route run vs Cover 3 out of 80+ qualifiers: