2024 Week 5 DFS Coverage Shells

Week 5 is a first in that we are now somewhat limited with game selections. It’s the first week on the calendar with teams on a bye:

• Lions

• Chargers

• Eagles

• Titans

All four of those teams have at least one viable fantasy RB, meaning they’re out of commission from the available player pool in Week 5. On the other hand, we now have a month’s worth of 2024 data at our disposal as well as some lucrative games projected to put up some points. Let’s get right to it!

Team Defenses

BUF @ HOU

The Buffalo Bills (3-1) play their second-straight road game this Sunday vs the Houston Texans (3-1). The Bills are currently 1-point road favorites and are tied for the 5th-highest implied team total of the week at 24.5 points.

Surprisingly, the 48-point total is just the third-highest of the slate, which could be a testament to all the projected scoring in Week 5 (knock on wood if you’re playing DFS/fantasy).

Nonetheless, we’ve got a potential closed-roof shootout between two franchise QBs in Josh Allen ($7,700) and CJ Stroud ($7,200). This alone makes the matchup deserving of an even closer look.

Allen is priced as the QB1 and Stroud the QB3, so while it is difficult to snag value from either of their plays, it’s still a potential “green flag” for the skill players on both sidelines.

Here’s how the Bills grade out and rank defensively, per PFF:

• 75.5 pass rush (6th)

• 59.0 coverage (24th)

• 50.9 run defense (28th)

How well the Texans' pass protection can hold up might play a big factor for Stroud and company. Earlier this week, it was announced that BUF edge rusher Von Miller would be suspended for four games. Miller is second in total pressures for BUF (13).

Nico Collins ($7,700) is priced as the WR4 after producing 33.1 PPR points last week where he finished as the fantasy WR1. Collins is the fantasy WR3 on the season at 22.7 PPG.

Here are the other pass catchers in this contest:

Defensively, BUF deploys two-high shells at the league’s 4th-highest clip (62.3%), and play in zone coverage at the 7th-highest rate (76.6%).

From an offensive standpoint, HOU is used to these looks. They drop back more than any other offense vs two-high looks (64.0%) and the 3rd-most vs zone (78.9%).

HOU sees Cover 2 more than anyone in the league (24.6%), while BUF deploys Cover 2 at the 6th-highest rate defensively (22.1%).

Although it is a revenge game for WR Stefon Diggs ($6,900), Nico Collins has been the clearcut top target earner for HOU. This also hasn’t changed vs Cover 2. This coverage matchup does, however, provide an interesting opportunity for risk-takers out there.

Texans RBs do present themselves as viable receiving threats vs Cover 2 this season:

Defensively, the Bills have allowed the most PPR PPG to pass catchers lined up in the backfield by a wide margin (10.6). Whoever does get the pass play usage and routes within that HOU backfield could be worth a flyer, given the coverage matchup.

BAL @ CIN

The red-hot Baltimore Ravens (2-2) travel to Cincinnati to take on the Bengals (1-3) in an AFC North showdown. This game currently has the highest total of the week at 50 points. The Ravens are 2.5-point road favorites, and they have the second-highest implied team total (26.25).

BAL owns the 3rd-highest PFF team pass block grade (78.1), while CIN owns the worst PFF team pass rush grade (53.7). And this doesn’t even consider the possibility of Bengals star edge rusher Trey Hendrickson being unavailable due to a head injury.

Lamar Jackson ($7,500) is priced as the QB2 and has interesting fantasy production splits when clean vs under pressure this season:

This CIN defense is pretty bad. They rank 27th in EPA per play allowed (.104) and 29th in success rate allowed (49.4%), per rbsdm.com/stats.

BAL ranks 19th in EPA/play allowed (.008) and 11th in success rate allowed (40.1%). Not the same defense that they bullied opponents throughout 2023, but they are still really good at stopping the run. They’ve given up the lowest rushing success rate in 2024 (27.8%).

This could help establish a more pass-reliant game script for an already dropback-heavy CIN offense:

Of the pass catchers in this matchup, Ja’Marr Chase ($8,000) is priced in his own tier and priced as the WR3 on the entire Week 5 slate:

BAL deploys two-high looks on 49.4% of their snaps, top 10 among defenses. More specifically, they run quarters at the 5th-highest rate (22.9%) and Cover 6 at the 2nd-highest rate (16.9%).

Offensively, CIN drops back vs two-high at the 2nd-highest rate in the NFL (61.7%).

Dating back to the start of last season, WR Tee Higgins ($6,000) is tied for 4th out of 100+ qualifiers in YPRR vs Cover 4/6:

Here’s the relative “value” of secondary options to Chase based on Week 5 salaries and expected fantasy points per game this year:

IND @ JAX

The 2-2 Indianapolis Colts are fresh off a home victory and travel to Jacksonville to take on the 0-4 Jaguars in the first matchup between these two AFC South squads.

Although JAX is winless, they’re 3-point home favorites and are tied for the fifth-highest team total at 24.5 points.

IND deploys zone on 76.5% of their coverage snaps, 8th-highest among defenses. More specifically, they’ve run Cover 3 at a 43.1% clip, which is the 4th-highest this season.

JAX WR Brian Thomas Jr. ($5,900) owns a 3.97 YPRR as well as a 44% receiving yards market share vs Cover 3, 2nd out of 48 qualifying WR/TEs this season. Thomas Jr. owns just a 1.87 YPRR vs all other coverages.

The IND/JAX defenses allow the most/second-most PPG to opposing QBs this year. Anthony Richardson ($6,000) and Trevor Lawrence ($5,700) are both priced outside the top 10 QBs.

GB @ LA

The Green Bay Packers (2-2) hit the road to take on the Los Angeles Rams (1-3), who are 3-point home underdogs. The Packers started the week with the 3rd-highest team total which has now shot up to the 2nd-highest at 25.75 points.

Jordan Love ($6,500) is priced as the QB9, while Rams veteran Matthew Stafford ($5,500) lands outside of the top 20 QBs.

The Rams will be without their top two receivers, Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua. Without them, LA is similar to GB in the sense that it feels like a weekly game of musical chairs with the pass catchers.

Defensively, GB (36.3) and LA (35.9) are top 10 in points per game allowed to opposing WRs.

GB WR Jayden Reed ($6,500) is a popular name to pair alongside Love from a higher level:

Devils advocate: LA allows the most receiving PPG to targeted players lined up out wide (30.4). Conversely, they give up the 2nd-fewest PPG to those lined up in the slot (10.6).

Reed has recorded 85.7% of his routes from the slot this season.

Of the perimeter receiving threats for GB, WR Dontayvion Wicks ($5,000) could be a value. Wicks has ran more than 65% of his routes from the outside, and he is targeted nearly twice as often from there as Romeo Doubs ($5,400) and Christian Watson ($4,800) while on the field:

As you can see, Wicks also dominates the wide-alignment air yardage, and LA is tied for the 4th-highest defensive ADOT in the league (9.2).

From weeks 1-3, Wicks participated in <40% of the team’s routes in each contest. Last week vs MIN, that jumped to 75.0% as Watson left the game with a lower body injury.

Reed and Wicks have a pretty negatively correlated target share, and there’s definitely more certainty/floor for Reed’s production based on his $1.5k cost premium.

Case for Wicks: Rams deploy zone coverage 5th-most among defenses (77.7%). Dontayvion Wicks ranks 5th out of 90+ qualifiers in expected fantasy points per route run vs zone (0.54).

Case For Reed/Doubs: Rams deploy Cover 3 at the 6th-highest rate (38.8%) and Cover 6 at the highest rate (18.2%). Reed ranks 1st out of 80+ qualifiers in yards per route run vs Cover 3/6 this season (5.44). Doubs ranks inside the top 15 (2.74).

Doubs also commands the Cover 3/6 targets: