2024 Week 4 DFS Early Look

Week 3 of the NFL regular season just wrapped up, meaning Week 4 is just around the corner. As my readers likely know, DFS is the best version of fantasy football, and since DraftKings and FanDuel have released their Week 4 prices, it’s time to track down the obvious values and best plays.

Here are the plays that jumped out to me for Week 4 DFS.

Sam Darnold, QB, Minnesota Vikings (@ GB)

DraftKings: $5,700 (QB15) | FanDuel: $7,300 (QB13)

Darnold has been incredible through three games; he ranks 5th in YPA (8.4), 4th in PFF passing grade (82.4), and 5th in DraftKings FPG (19.9). And let’s not forget what a great offense this is for QB fantasy production. Minnesota quarterbacks have ranked in the top-5 in cumulative fantasy scoring in all three seasons (including 2024) Kevin O’Connell has coached the team.

This Packers defense has allowed the 8th-most passing YPG (despite facing Will Levis, Anthony Richardson, and Jalen Hurts) and forced the 6th-lowest pressure rate (23%). Darnold is obviously mispriced as the QB15; his production reflects a QB who should cost at least $6,500.

Andy Dalton, QB, Carolina Panthers (VS. CIN)

DraftKings: $5,300 (QB22) | FanDuel: $7,000 (QB19)

Carolina’s neutral-situation pass rate jumped from 62% with Bryce Young under center, to 74% with Andy Dalton in Week 3. For perspective, a 74% neutral-situation pass rate would lead all teams since at least 2021 if extrapolated out to a full season. And that resulted in 27.6 DraftKings points for Dalton, the 7th-highest fantasy score by a QB this season.

Maybe Carolina won’t lead the decade in pass rate, but Dave Canales obviously has faith in Andy Dalton’s ability to chuck the football. As the Tampa Bay OC last season, Canales led Baker Mayfield to 17.4 DraftKings FPG – which would rank 8th-best among main slate-eligible QBs in Week 4.

Dalton – the QB22 by DraftKings pricing – is far too cheap on this slate, even in a tougher matchup with Cincinnati. We know the pass volume will be there, and fantasy production should follow.

Alvin Kamara, RB, New Orleans Saints (@ ATL)

DraftKings: $7,600 (RB4) | FanDuel: $8,600 (RB3)

Kamara (89%) led all RBs in snap share in Week 3, and posted his highest overall snap share since Week 4 of 2021. That’s great news for a normal RB, but far better news for a player like Kamara. On a per-snap basis, Kamara was the 6th-most efficient RB in the NFL last year (0.45 fantasy points per snap), and he’s been +71% more efficient this season – easily pacing the position (min. 60 snaps) in per-snap efficiency.

That’s a long-winded way of saying that snaps matter more for Kamara than just about any other fantasy RB. Maybe his outlier Week 3 snap share was driven by the absence of Taysom Hill. Or maybe Kamara’s coaches realized they should give the league’s 2nd-most efficient RB by fantasy points over expectation (+8.4) as much work as he can handle. This past offseason, Ryan Heath noted that while hyper-efficiency almost always regresses, it’s a proven precursor to an increase in volume. And we may be looking at that exact increase with Kamara.

I wouldn’t consider Atlanta a favorable matchup for opposing RBs (3rd-toughest by FPG allowed), but if Kamara is a 90% snap share player, he should be at least $900 more expensive this week.

James Conner, RB Arizona Cardinals (VS. WAS)

DraftKings: $6,500 (RB13) | FanDuel: $7,500 (RB12)

We’ve talked at length this season about how awful Washington’s pass defense is, and their run defense isn’t much better. Through 2 games (MNF not included), Washington has allowed the 4th-most yards before contact per attempt (2.2), the 5th-highest explosive run rate (7.7%), and – crucially – the most YPC on man/gap rushing concepts (6.3).

Nearly 74% of Conner’s rush attempts this season have come on man/gap concepts, which makes the Commanders a sneaky-great matchup. And he’s notoriously sensitive to gamescript, averaging +32% more FPG in wins (19.4) compared to losses (14.7) since last season. Arizona is a 4.5-point favorite this week, and Conner should get fed here as long as they translate that favorable spread into positive gamescript.

Carson Steele, RB, Kansas City Chiefs (@ LAC)

DraftKings: $5,500 (RB26) | FanDuel: $5,800 (RB30)

Steele earned a 64% snap share (16th-best), 18 routes (11th-best), and 16.1 XFP (14th-best) in his first game without Isiah Pacheco. He was clearly favored on early downs (70% snap share), and – more importantly – earned 8 of 8 backfield red zone opportunities, amounting to 48% of team XFP in the red zone (8th-best of Week 3 RBs).

This workhorse role was fairly predictable, but it’s also particularly valuable on a team like Kansas City, as the Chiefs are favored in 93% of their remaining games this season, and are a 7.0-point favorite this week.

The Chargers are a tougher matchup on the ground (8th-fewest YPC allowed), but the expected positive gamescript, and a mid-range RB2 workload from Steele should make him pop as a cheap value this week.

Marvin Harrison, WR, Arizona Cardinals (VS. WAS)

DraftKings: $7,500 (WR5) | FanDuel: $8,200 (WR5)

The Commanders are the worst coverage unit in football, so I’m happy to bet on one of the best WR prospects of the last decade to bury them this weekend.

Washington was the single-softest schedule-adjusted matchup for opposing WRs last year, and they’ve already allowed 20-plus DraftKings points to Malik Nabers, Chris Godwin, and Mike Evans (11% of 20-plus point WR games in Weeks 1 and 2, despite participating in 6% of total games).

And Harrison has been awesome as of late; he’s 2nd among all pass catchers in XFP/G (23.2) and 4th in YPRR (3.4) since Week 2. It seems crazy to say after back-to-back price increases, but Harrison is glaringly underpriced in this matchup.

Brandon Aiyuk, WR, San Francisco 49ers (VS. NE)

DraftKings: $6,400 (WR18) | FanDuel: $7,600 (WR10)

Jauan Jennings stole the show on Sunday, but Brandon Aiyuk still finished Week 3 with the 9th-most XFP (21.7) of any pass catcher.

Obviously, we want that expectation to turn into reality – and a Week 4 matchup with New England certainly helps. The Patriots have allowed the 5th-most passing YPG (257.3), and they’ve played the 5th-most man coverage in the NFL this season.

Over the last two years, Aiyuk sees a +21% increase to his TPRR and a +28% increase to his FP/RR against man coverage relative to zone. This is an elite schematic matchup for Aiyuk, who is far too cheap with so many 49ers banged up.

Diontae Johnson, WR Carolina Panthers (VS. CIN)

DraftKings: $5,600 (WR28) | FanDuel: $6,200 (WR27)

All it took was a QB change for Johnson to return to his rightful place as the king of expected fantasy points. Johnson finished Week 3 with the 2nd-most XFP (26.9), the 6th-most fantasy points (26.2), and the 3rd-highest target share (35%) of any pass catcher.

That’s awesome volume – and it makes Johnson’s WR28 DraftKings price tag look like a complete joke. There’s no reason to think this volume will slow. Carolina led the week in neutral-situation pass rate, and Johnson is easily the best receiver on this team. He led all WRs in separation win rate (29%) and ranked second in separation score (0.24) last season.

The bottom line for Week 4 is that Johnson is finally getting competent QB play, a notable uptick in pass volume, and he is still one of the best separators in the NFL. He will be one of the most popular WRs of the Week 4 main slate.

Dallas Goedert, TE, Philadelphia Eagles (@ TB)

DraftKings: $5,100 (TE6) | FanDuel: $7,500 (TE1)

58% of the Eagles 2023 targets will be unaccounted for this week if DeVonta Smith and AJ Brown both miss Week 4.

Goedert managed a 36% first-read target share and 15.9 XFP with Smith on the field for 73% of routes in Week 3. Those marks ranked 1st- and 3rd-best among Week 3 TEs – and with so little receiving talent left on the roster, Goedert’s usage has nowhere to go but up.

Tampa Bay hasn’t shown much of a weakness to TEs this season, but Goedert could easily lead the position in target share this week. He’s a strong play, but expect heavy ownership to follow if the Eagles are without their top-2 receiving options.