How did we get here?
Puka and McCaffrey might be out longer than the minimum four weeks on IR. Cooper Kupp hurt his ankle. Ken Walker is out “multiple weeks” after he said he was fine. A.J. Brown had a random hammy.
Sigh.
As always, we’ll review the data and provide probabilities for outcomes, but doing this from afar is tough. I commend you all for venturing on.
Let’s review the current list of injuries and projections:
Jordan Love: MCL/Kneecap (?)
Projected Return: Week 4-5
Advice: Target Love, Target Josh Jacobs
Christian McCaffrey: Achilles/calf
Projected Return: Week 6-7
Advice: Target at a discount, avoid overpaying
Keenan Allen: Heel
Projected Return: Week 3-5
Advice: Target Rome Odunze/DJ Moore
Puka Nacua: Knee
Projected Return: Week 6
Advice: Target in most scenarios… if you have the roster room
David Njoku: Ankle
Projected Return: Week 4-5
Advice: Avoid
Jake Ferguson: Knee/Ankle
Projected Return: Week 3-4
Advice: Avoid
Jordan Addison: High Ankle
Projected Return: Week 3-4
Advice: Avoid
Kenneth Walker III: Core/Groin
Projected Return: Week 3-5
Advice: Avoid, Target Zach Charbonnet
Josh Downs: High Ankle
Projected Return: Week 3
Advice: Target
A.J. Brown: Hamstring
Only 25% of WRs who appear on the report with a hammy mid-week have played since 2018, so it's not surprising that this was the result.
The average amount of missed time for these injuries is one game but the in-season recurrence is somewhere in the neighborhood of 30%. If Brown plays in Week 3, the average and median for fantasy points, respectively, is 91% and 79%. The Dud Rate (50% or less of baseline production) is high at 25%, but the Week Winner Rate (score greater than or equal to 150% of baseline production) is 17%.
The hardest thing to predict with injuries is severity. We know that 75% of these resolve in 0-1 weeks so statistically, we should be fine. But as always, like we saw with McCaffrey, outliers exist,
Projected Return: Week 3
Advice: Avoid in cash games, hold/start in season-long
Cooper Kupp: High Ankle
By video it's all but confirmed this is a left high ankle sprain for Kupp. If you’re wondering, this is the opposite side as the tight rope he had done a couple of years back. He’ll have an MRI done and in this case a walking boot shouldn’t scare you. Teams don’t have access to x-rays while on the road so the boot is precautionary most of the time.
Chalk this up to bad, bad luck.
So what does this mean? Kupp will likely try to play, of course. If he does, a massive hit in production should be expected with risk for re-injury. If he’s prudent, he’ll sit for 1-2 weeks in a similar way that Tyreek Hill did last season in Week 16. In that contest Hill went for 19 PPR points.
Lastly, this likely increases his hamstring injury risk slightly due to workloads. Continuing to roster Kupp isn’t for the faint of heart. With that said, I’m buying the panic and letting the chips fall where they may.
As we’ve seen with Puka and CMC, things can always go south. But keeping our objective/data caps on, the data shows this isn’t a death sentence on Kupp yet until we hear differently.
Isiah Pacheco: Ankle
Isiah Pacheco suffered an ankle injury against the Bengals and is undergoing tests. The good news: only 11% of non-high ankle sprains The bad news is he left the game on crutches and in a walking boot, a move generally reserved for a confirmed fracture (as was reported on Monday). xpect a 4-6 week absence similar to Saquon Barkley’s in 2021.
Projected Return: Week 8-9
Advice: Avoid
Joe Mixon: High Ankle
If Mixon is out with a high ankle sprain (based on video, this can’ t be ruled out). The average missed time for RBs is 2.7 games however 34% miss just 0 to 1 games. Don’t count him out completely, but in the short term, this isn’t looking great for Mixon.
Projected Return: Week 4-6
Advice: Avoid
Justin Herbert: Ankle
Herbert told reporters that he underwent X-rays after Sunday's game against the Panthers, per The Athletic. Despite this being a nearly identical injury as Pacheco, the good news is that Herbert didn’t miss time. If we’re being real for a moment, even if Herbert has an ankle fracture (which I presume was ruled out) he’s much less likely to miss extended time compared to Pacheco.
Projected Return: Week 3
Advice: N/A
Justin Jefferson: Quad contusion
Here are some quotes from Jefferson himself:
"I'm not seriously injured. So that's the main important thing," Jefferson said, per ESPN.com. "So it's just all about getting to the training room, making sure my body is right for next week and I'll be ready to go next Sunday."
Now we’ve all heard these athletes wax poetic about their recoveries at this point so its important to center our analysis back on the data. And to be honest, I was slightly surprised at the results.
“Quadriceps” is a highly non-specific term given the fact that the injury can range from a muscle sprain to a contusion. Those two injuries are managed very differently. However, it’s what we have to work with. In that case, WRs since 2018 on the injury report with “quad” or “quadriceps” end up playing just 44% of the time. In other words, slightly worse odds than a coin flip.
What about just being listed as “knee” with nothing else? The odds to play are slightly better at 52%. Obviously the practice report will be telling and if Jefferson is active, you start him. However until we see him in practice, understand this is still a situation to monitor. In a worst case scenario world this is a bone contusion, and Jetta is out 3-4 weeks. I don’t anticipate that but its not off the table just yet.
Projected Return: Week 3-4
Advice: Monitor closely
Amon-Ra St. Brown: Quad contusion (presumed)
Based on video, ARSN seemed to have sustained a similar injury. His analysis is literally copy/paste from JJ.
Other Injuries to Monitor
Tyjae Spears (ankle), Tank Bigsby (shoulder), Evan Engram (hamstring)
As always, reach out with questions!
