2024 Week 13 WR/CB Fantasy Matchups

With Fantasy Points Data — a project we’ve worked on for nearly two years behind the scenes before launching in 2023 — we wanted to answer one big question: what if we tailored all of the data our team has gathered (hand-charted from our team of experts) directly to the fantasy player?

Based on years of playing season-long fantasy, dynasty, and DFS — and using all the charted data out there to build models and try to gain an advantage in a game where the margins are shrinking — we believe we’ve found where we can do things better. That is the Fantasy Points Data Suite.

Using Fantasy Points Data, I wrote a (FSWA nominated!) weekly column last year called the Mismatch Report. It identified the biggest OL/DL and WR/CB mismatches of the week based on our data.

But now, we have an actual NFL scout, Scott DiBenedetto, breaking down our OL/DL matchups. So I’m going to make this a column focused on some WR/secondary matchups that I’m identifying as either problematic or potentially juicy for fantasy.

WR/CB Tool

Our WR/CB Matchup Tool is sortable with loads of matchup data.

A note on our process: there are very few situations in the NFL in which one receiver will match up with one corner for the vast majority of his routes. So honestly, WR/CB matchups in the traditional sense are perhaps the most overrated form of fantasy analysis.

We aim to do them better: our process breaks down how many routes a receiver runs from a certain alignment, and assigns a weighted score based on how much that receiver is expected to see a given defender based on those alignments. So it will measure how often we expect a receiver to face all defenders in a matchup, not just one particular defender, and weigh a score by those expected percentages.

If I do believe there will be a “shadow CB” situation, I’ll mention it and break down the matchup.

SHADOW ALERT! Steelers CB Joey Porter, Jr. vs. Bengals WR Tee Higgins

You read that right. We anticipate Peezy Jr. will be shadowing Higgins, and not Ja’Marr Chase, this week.

The reasoning from our perspective is simple: Higgins plays more of a traditional “X” role, and the Steelers like to utilize Porter to take away a team’s true X. Sometimes, that’s really no one — despite our projection of Porter shadowing Jerry Jeudy last week (and the fact that Porter went into the slot five times with Jeudy), he didn’t truly shadow any Browns WR. But we think that changes this week.

I admit this is going out on a limb — last year, when Porter had the chance, he shadowed Chase in Week 12. Chase was inactive in Week 16, and that’s when Porter followed Higgins. While Higgins had an overall big game — 5/140/1 — only 2 catches for 38 yards came in Porter’s primary coverage.

I have to acknowledge this projection may be wrong. And that’s why neither Chase nor Higgins is catching a significant downgrade from me in season-long leagues. But I see a very interesting leverage option here in DFS, where the public is likely to be scared off of Chase because of the Porter matchup.

In six games with Higgins this year, Chase has cleared 25.0 DraftKings FP three times. Without him? Just once in five games.

SHADOW ALERT! Broncos CB Pat Surtain vs. Browns WR Jerry Jeudy

It’s a REVENGE SHADOW GAME! The Broncos get to take on their former 1st-round WR, who showed promise but never put it together for whatever reason in Denver — injuries, QB play, etc. It was looking like much of the same thing for Jeudy with the Browns this season… but then Jameis Winston happened.

With the atrocious Deshaun Watson at QB for the majority of Weeks 1 through 7, Jeudy averaged 5.7 targets (many of which were uncatchable), 3 receptions, and 38 receiving yards per game. He averaged 7.9 PPR FPG, which bottomed him out at WR69 over that span.

But since Winston took over as the starter in Week 8, Jeudy averages 8.75 targets, 6 receptions, and 94.75 receiving yards per game. His 17.0 PPR FPG over that span ties him with Puka Nacua for WR9. Winston’s aggressive mentality down the field seems to have finally unlocked a player who always popped on film and in our separation metrics, but never in the box score. We now have reason to believe that might be changing.

So we certainly anticipate the Broncos will want to deploy Surtain, arguably the game’s best shutdown corner, on Jeudy. And when Jeudy lines up outside, I believe they will. But here’s a huge caveat: The Browns have been deploying Jeudy in the slot more often, and his 56% slot route rate in Week 12 against Pittsburgh was his highest of the season… potentially so Jeudy could avoid what we projected to be a shadow situation from Joey Porter Jr.

Jeudy had 6 catches for 85 yards against the Steelers, but only 3/28 in Porter’s primary coverage. Much like Porter, Surtain rarely goes into the slot, and I’m sure Kevin Stefanski knows this. The only question is if the potential absence of Cedric Tillman (concussion) limits what the Browns are able to do schematically.

I still have Jeudy on my WR2 radar because of this, though I wouldn’t blame you for fading him in DFS on the Sunday-Monday slate.

SHADOW ALERT! Texans CB Derek Stingley vs. Jaguars WR Brian Thomas

Stingley hasn’t been a true shadow corner this year, but it’s interesting that the Texans chose to follow Calvin Ridley on 67.9% of his routes in Week 12. It’s possible that Houston viewed Ridley as so far and above his teammates that they wanted to try to neutralize him. In that regard, they made the right decision. Ridley had 5 catches for 93 yards… but just 1 catch for 6 yards in Stingley’s primary coverage.

But it hasn’t fixed Houston’s issues overall. The Texans have given up a league-high 9 touchdown passes of 20 or more air yards, including one to Nick Westbrook-Ikhine last week. I’m not entirely sure how this applies to Thomas, but if the Texans are going to treat him like Ridley (which they may, given Gabe Davis and Christian Kirk are both out for the year), it’s a tough matchup.

Thomas led all WRs with a 59.4% yardage market share in Week 11, his last appearance before the bye. Keep in mind he spent three straight weeks on the injury report with a chest ailment suffered in Week 8. Despite that, his 29.2% first-read target share (his highest since Week 5) meant the Jags were calling plays specifically for him. Now, he’s off the injury report, and Trevor Lawrence (shoulder) is expected back this week.

My guess is the Texans will shadow him. That makes this a tougher draw, but not enough to take Thomas off the WR2 radar for me.

SHADOW ALERT! Patriots CB Christian Gonzalez vs. Colts WR Michael Pittman

Gonzalez continues to shadow every week, but… yeah, I’m not going to say the same thing I say every week again, but that doesn’t necessarily make this a matchup to avoid. But what might is Pittman’s play with the inconsistent Anthony Richardson, who completed just 11/28 passes in Week 12 after a promising Week 11 in which he went 20/30 for 272 yards and a TD.

Now, the good news is Richardson was significantly hurt by drops, and of the 11 passes he did complete, 6 went to Pittman (for 96 yards). It was Pittman’s second-highest yardage output of the season (after 113 in Week 4, with Joe Flacco), and his first game with 10 or more fantasy points in a PPR league since Week 6 (also with Flacco at QB). Moreover, Josh Downs is expected to miss Sunday’s game with a shoulder injury, which could open up more opportunities for Pittman.

But the matchup, plus the complete lack of faith I have in Richardson to put up a consistent performance, has Pittman on the low-end WR3 radar for me.

Eagles WR AJ Brown vs. Ravens DBs

Few teams have been a bigger pass funnel than the Ravens this year. On the full season, the Ravens are giving up the 4th-fewest schedule-adjusted FPG to opposing RBs as runners, while allowing a league-high +8.1 schedule-adjusted FPG to opposing WRs. Over ther last five weeks, their run defense has softened just a tad, while their pass defense has “improved” — a 5th-most +7.2 schedule-adjusted FPG allowed.

Mostly, Baltimore has been a perimeter funnel, which is why I prefer Brown to DeVonta Smith, who is returning from a hamstring injury this week (if he’s able to play at all). At this point in the season,

Broncos WR Devaughn Vele vs. Browns CB Greg Newsome

Don’t look now, but Broncos QB Bo Nix has seriously closed the gap on Jayden Daniels to win Offensive Rookie of the Year. As of publication, he’s +120 at DraftKings… roughly a 10th of the odds he was at just two weeks ago at this time.

Within Nix’s recent surge has come the emergence of fellow rookie Vele. At 6’4” and over 200 pounds, Vele blew up the Combine last winter but fell to the 7th round in the NFL Draft because he is nearly 27 years old. That doesn’t matter for coach Sean Payton, who is utilizing Vele as a big slot receiver — comparing him to former Saints legend Marques Colston in the process.

Funnily enough, Vele’s two lowest slot route rates of the season have come in the last two games, but I think that’s more a reflection of how Payton’s trust in Vele and his role is expanding. I still anticipate that Vele will predominantly line up in the slot on Monday night, and I love the matchup for him.

Vele draws a Browns defense that has allowed the 6th-most schedule-adjusted fantasy points per game to opposing slot receivers over the last five weeks. That’s mostly the fault of slot CB Newsome, whose 472 yards allowed in his primary coverage are 2nd-most among all CBs who have played 50% or more of their coverage snaps in the slot.

I expect Nix to continue his charge for the Rookie of the Year award, and Vele will be a big help this week. I like him as a WR3.

Jaguars WRs Parker Washington and Devin Duvernay vs. Texans DBs

This is really gross. Like really. But hear me out.

Over the last five weeks, no team has given up more schedule-adjusted FPG to opposing slot WRs than Houston. And that’ll become an even bigger issue now that typical nickel defender Jalen Pitre could potentially miss the rest of the season with a torn pectoral muscle.

That’ll leave nickel duties to either Jimmie Ward (who had a pick six against Will Levis last week) or Eric Murray, both of whom are natural safeties. Murray is the guy Washington would rather see opposite him — among defenders with 100 or more coverage snaps, and more than 50% of those snaps in the slot, Murray’s 0.58 FP/CS allowed is worst in the NFL. And — lo and behold — with Christian Kirk out for the season, Washington posted his two highest slot snap rates of 2024 in Weeks 10 and 11 prior to the Jags’ bye.

That’s the good news.

The bad news is that of Washington’s 10 catches this year, none of them have come from in the slot. Moreover, it’s possible the Jags view him as a more versatile receiver than Devin Duvernay, who returned to Jacksonville’s lineup from IR in Week 11 and ran 33% of his routes inside… but Washington shifted outside more after Gabe Davis (IR) went down with injury. And Duvernay is even cheaper on the DFS slate than Washington. On the other hand, Duvernay has only 1 catch this year, on which he lost a single yard.

I’m pretty confident one of these players will come through against Houston given Trevor Lawrence is expected back in the lineup, and my lean is to the better player — Washington. But Duvernay is the stone-cold minimum price on DraftKings, which could make him the easier of these gross pills to swallow.