2024 Week 11 WR/CB Fantasy Matchups

With Fantasy Points Data — a project we’ve worked on for nearly two years behind the scenes before launching in 2023 — we wanted to answer one big question: what if we tailored all of the data our team has gathered (hand-charted from our team of experts) directly to the fantasy player?

Based on years of playing season-long fantasy, dynasty, and DFS — and using all the charted data out there to build models and try to gain an advantage in a game where the margins are shrinking — we believe we’ve found where we can do things better. That is the Fantasy Points Data Suite.

Using Fantasy Points Data, I wrote a (FSWA nominated!) weekly column last year called the Mismatch Report. It identified the biggest OL/DL and WR/CB mismatches of the week based on our data.

But now, we have an actual NFL scout, Scott DiBenedetto, breaking down our OL/DL matchups. So I’m going to make this a column focused on some WR/secondary matchups that I’m identifying as either problematic or potentially juicy for fantasy.

WR/CB Tool

Our WR/CB Matchup Tool is sortable with loads of matchup data.

A note on our process: there are very few situations in the NFL in which one receiver will match up with one corner for the vast majority of his routes. So honestly, WR/CB matchups in the traditional sense are perhaps the most overrated form of fantasy analysis.

We aim to do them better: our process breaks down how many routes a receiver runs from a certain alignment, and assigns a weighted score based on how much that receiver is expected to see a given defender based on those alignments. So it will measure how often we expect a receiver to face all defenders in a matchup, not just one particular defender, and weigh a score by those expected percentages.

If I do believe there will be a “shadow CB” situation, I’ll mention it and break down the matchup.

SHADOW ALERT! Broncos CB Pat Surtain vs. Falcons WR Drake London

We have a similar situation in Week 11 as we did in Week 10 regarding Surtain. When Drake London lines up on the perimeter, I think Surtain will follow him. But when London goes into the slot — as DeAndre Hopkins did 34.5% of the time in Week 10 — Surtain will be far less likely to follow.

Last week, Hopkins had 4 catches for 56 yards on 5 targets against the Broncos. But just 2 of those catches — for 13 yards — came against Surtain on the perimeter (he caught 1 pass on Riley Moss, and he had a 31-yard reception on the Broncos’ excellent slot CB, Ja’Quan McMillian). That’s important context, because London has been running a large percentage of his routes from the slot. Since Week 3, he’s run at least 32% of his routes inside in every game, and he’s been over 40% in that category in each of the last two weeks. That’s been a winning strategy for the Falcons — among 33 WRs with 100 or more routes run from the slot, only Chris Godwin (3.06) averages more YPRR inside than London (2.98).

Of course, that doesn’t mean this is an easy draw for London, by any stretch. Largely on McMillian’s excellent play, the Broncos have been the toughest matchup by schedule-adjusted FPG for slot WRs (-3.8) this season. I am downgrading London a bit because of the matchup in general. I do think Surtain will shadow him — as he did Hopkins — when London goes outside. I might not target London in DFS, but he’s impossible to sit in season-long leagues.

As for someone like Darnell Mooney? Well, I actually think he has the same issues as London this week. Mooney runs 41.5% of his routes in the slot. But when Mooney is outside and London is inside, I think Surtain will shadow Mooney. So this is kind of a double-shadow situation. Mooney remains on the WR2 radar.

SHADOW ALERT! Patriots CB Christian Gonzalez vs. Rams WR Puka Nacua

It’s a small sample, but if the numbers are to be believed, it is Nacua — and not Cooper Kupp — who is the Rams’ top WR, at least by design.

Nacua’s stat lines are 7/106 and 9/98 in his two full games this season. In those two games, his 41.9% first-read target share blows away that of Kupp. Moreover, he runs 78.5% of his routes from the perimeter, compared to just 31.4% for Kupp, which is why we’re projecting a Gonzalez shadow.

Gonzalez split his work on DJ Moore and Rome Odunze last week, but if the Patriots want to simplify things for him this week, having him follow Nacua for most of the game when he goes outside, and Kupp when Nacua goes inside.

I’m getting tired of saying that Gonzalez isn’t an “unassailable matchup,” but he’s a recurring feature in this column because he is a true shadow CB, even if he doesn’t fit the Revis Island criteria. I’m not downgrading Nacua off of WR1 status, though it’s fair to prefer Kupp to him if this matchup worries you even a little bit.

SHADOW ALERT! Falcons CB AJ Terrell vs. Broncos WR Courtland Sutton

The Falcons have had Terrell shadow eight different receivers on more than 50% of their routes this year, to mixed success — among the 15 CBs with 300 or more coverage snaps played this year, we’ve charted Terrell as having allowed the 2nd-highest passer rating when targeted (124.3), the 2nd-most FP/target (2.2), the 4th-most FP/coverage snap (0.29), and the 2nd-most touchdowns (5).

That’s included touchdowns to elite receivers like DK Metcalf and Mike Evans, and to scrubs like Marquez Valdes-Scantling. That’s good news for Sutton, who was held catchless in Week 7, but has since been one of the top receivers in fantasy football. In the last three games, Sutton has 21/292/1 receiving on 30 targets from a rapidly improving Bo Nix, ranking as the WR7 with 20.1 FPG. (He was the WR57 from Weeks 1-7.)

Sutton has been great the last three weeks, and this matchup against Terrell certainly will not scare me from using him as a WR2. Atlanta has allowed +6.5 schedule-adjusted FPG to opposing outside WRs over the last five weeks, 2nd-most in the NFL.

SHADOW ALERT! Steelers CB Joey Porter vs. Ravens WR Rashod Bateman

My thought when the Ravens traded for Diontae Johnson was that they did so to make him their primary outside WR while moving Zay Flowers inside — where he does the most of his damage — on a more permanent basis. That has sort of been the case. Flowers has posted two of his three-highest slot route rates of the season in the last two weeks.

But it’s not because Johnson is in Baltimore. In fact, he’s run just eight routes in two games with the Ravens. All those routes have been outside, but even if his role doubles, it’s still insignificant. (Check out what Mike Tomlin said below about his former player.) Bateman has played two of his three highest snap shares of the season since the Ravens acquired Johnson, which is bizarre to say, given his atrocious drop against the Browns in Week 8 — before the Johnson trade — might have cost Baltimore a win.

So based on the information we currently have, if Porter is going to shadow anyone, it’ll probably be Bateman, who runs a minuscule 9% of his routes from the slot — among players with 50 or more routes run, only Keon Coleman and Quentin Johnston run a lower percentage inside. And Porter is coming off being humbled for, perhaps, the first time in his young career. The 97 yards receiving he allowed to Terry McLaurin in his primary coverage are the most we’ve charted him with against any individual receiver in his career.

I think there’s a good chance he shuts Bateman down this week. I have Bateman as a WR4/5.

SHADOW ALERT! Titans CB Jarvis Brownlee vs. Vikings WR Justin Jefferson

Wait… what? A 5th-round rookie is going to line up across from the game’s best receiver? That’s what we’re projecting, and it’s certainly not what the Titans expected when they traded for and extended L’Jarius Sneed this off-season. Not only has Sneed missed significant time with a quad injury, but he’s PFF’s 3rd-lowest-graded CB in coverage.

Brownlee, a first-year corner out of Florida State, has earned rave reviews from coaches for his competitiveness, and they expect he’s up to the task of at least slowing down Jefferson. I’m skeptical — our Fantasy Points Data team has charted Brownlee as having surrendered 1.56 YPRR in his primary coverage, 20th-most among 114 CBs with 100 or more coverage snaps played. Brownlee surrendered over 100 yards receiving to Keon Coleman in Week 7, so he’s been had by inexperienced players, as well.

This is not a suggestion to sit Jefferson — duh. In fact, a matchup with a Day 3 rookie is all the more reason to go all-in. But Brownlee might be a player to watch in the future.

Eagles WR AJ Brown vs. Commanders CB Mike Sainristl

If you have any lasting image of AJ Brown playing against the Commanders, it’s probably of him absolutely “sonning” Emmanuel Forbes, so much so that the then-rookie Forbes might never recover (this new Washington regime, which didn’t draft him, has soured on him).

The Commanders might want to avoid a repeat of that on now-rookie Sainristil, who will see the plurality of AJB, at least according to our alignment metrics (AJB plays the plurality of his snaps at RWR, where Sainristl aligns the plurality of his snaps). Sainristl is better suited for the slot, which is exactly why Washington traded for Marshon Lattimore, but Lattimore (hamstring) will not play Thursday night.

That could mean Washington chooses to selectively shadow Brown on Thursday night with Benjamin St-Juste, a bigger corner, but we’ve charted St-Juste as having allowed 527 yards in his primary coverage, 3rd-most in the NFL. That could also produce a domino effect, in which DeVonta Smith draws more of Sainristl or Noah Igbinoghene, who will likely depart the lineup when Lattimore returns.

Honestly, I love both of Philly’s receivers this week, and I also wonder if the Eagles scheme up a catch or two for Jahan Dotson against his former team (his receiving prop is super low, as low as 6.5 yards at some shops).

Steelers WRs vs. Ravens DBs

I’m still skeptical that the version of Russell Wilson we’re seeing now is for real, but it’s hard to argue against Mike Tomlin’s decision-making. Wilson’s deep-oriented “moon balls” have resurrected the Steeler offense, and he now has two receivers in George Pickens and Mike Williams who can take serious advantage of his strengths.

And by the numbers, there is no better matchup for fantasy football than Baltimore. First of all, the Ravens are getting crushed by outside WRs — their +12.8 schedule-adjusted FPG allowed to perimeter receivers over the last five weeks is the most in the NFL by nearly double (Falcons, +6.5).

But not only that, Baltimore has allowed a league-high 1260 receiving yards on balls that travel 15 or more yards in the air. And opposing teams know it — 92 such throws have been made against the Ravens, 13 more than 2nd-place Minnesota. The Ravens have also allowed 10 TD receptions on throws of 15 or more air yards, tied for 2nd-most in the NFL.

If there was ever a matchup to trust Wilson in DFS again — stacked with one of his WRs — this is it.

Browns WR Elijah Moore vs. Saints DB Ugo Amadi

I’ll admit I’m throwing this in here simply to see if Scott Barrett reads my column… but seriously, the matchup actually does favor Moore.

First of all, Moore has been a favorite target of Jameis Winston since the veteran QB took over for Deshaun Watson, with 21 targets in two games. Second of all, the Saints have been a major slot funnel by the numbers, ranking as the 2nd-easiest matchup for slot WRs by schedule-adjusted FPG over the last five weeks (+6.5).

Lastly, since Marshon Lattimore was injured and subsequently traded to the Commanders, the Saints have been using S Ugo Amadi as their slot CB (Alontae Taylor, who was really struggling as a slot CB, has moved outside). Moore has the quickness to take advantage of this matchup.

I’m not saying to pick him up and start him in season-long leagues, but you could probably do worse for a DFS dart throw or prop bet.

Packers DBs vs. Bears WRs

No… just… no. The Bears might have one of the most talented groups of WRs in the NFL, but none of them rank inside the top 40 by FPG. Caleb Williams has been a disaster. The offensive line has been a disaster. The coaching has been a disaster.

And this matchup is a disaster. Over the last five weeks, the Packers surrender a 3rd-lowest -11.3 schedule-adjusted FPG to opposing WRs.

Unless the Shane Waldron firing works a miracle, all Bear WRs are persona non grata in your lineups.

Jets DBs vs. Colts WRs

Along the same lines as the Bears WRs, the Colts WRs can’t be considered for anything until Anthony Richardson shows legitimate improvement as a passer — he’s delivered a catchable ball on a disastrous 61% of his throws, and he certainly doesn’t drop back with enough volume to make up for it.

The decision by the Colts to go to Joe Flacco was almost certainly shortsighted, as they’ve quickly realized. But it at least unlocked Josh Downs for fantasy. Now, Richardson is back, and the receiving corps is crowded — AD Mitchell broke out in Week 10, but now he has to contend with Downs, Alec Pierce, and a returning Michael Pittman (back).