Welcome to Week 1 Start ‘Em, Sit ‘Em. We are back!
This game-by-game article breaks down every player that is relevant for fantasy football. As always, please use our projections to make all of your start/sit decisions every week. The analysis in this piece provides the color – stats and information – behind the projections.
Unless stated otherwise, all of the data in this article is from Fantasy Points Data and specifically curated from the Data Suite. Our collection team has charted every play from every game over the last three seasons, and we will have fresh, weekly data imported into the tools on Tuesday mornings after the games.
Week 1 Disclaimer!
I’m not breaking ground by saying this here, but there’s so much yearly turnover in the NFL between player performance, injuries, and coaching. Very few defenses can actually sustain elite levels of efficiency across multiple seasons for those reasons.
As we enter Week 1, there are four defenses that stand out as clearly very difficult matchups due to their pass rush, strength in the secondary, and scheme:
New York Jets
Cleveland Browns
Baltimore Ravens
Dallas Cowboys
Weekly fantasy football analysis is about finding which offensive players have the most valuable roles first and then applying the more granular matchup factors secondarily. Volume is the name of the game, especially at RB. This week’s article will be a bit more condensed than usual on the matchup front and focus more on player roles.
Ravens at Chiefs (TNF)
Must Start
Patrick Mahomes
Lamar Jackson
Travis Kelce
Mark Andrews – Before suffering a high ankle injury in Week 11, Andrews was — once again — leading all tight ends in route share (79%). He was first in targets per route run (0.29), and he led the position in fantasy points per route run (0.54). No defense played more two-high safety coverage with the middle of the field open than the Chiefs (68%) did last season. In their eight full games together, Andrews saw a massive 28.2% target share against two-high safety looks compared to just 15.4% for Zay Flowers.
Rashee Rice – With Marquise Brown (shoulder) out and rookie Xavier Worthy making his first start, Rice will be Mahomes’ 1A or 1B target in Week 1. We’re betting that he breaks out as the Chiefs top wideout this season. Across their final 11 games last year, Rice earned 92 targets to Kelce’s 86. He averaged 16.8 PPR fantasy points per game (WR10) with the lowest average depth of target (4.6 yards) among qualified receivers in this span. What if Rice’s game evolves, and he starts running more routes downfield this season? How high can his ceiling be? He led all WRs in yards after the catch (7.6) on non-designed targets over George Pickens (7.0), Greg Dortch (6.6), and Deebo Samuel (6.5) as a rookie.
Start ‘Em
Isiah Pacheco – Across eight starts with Jerick McKinnon out (or in a reduced role), Pacheco averaged 19.3 PPR fantasy points per game. This would have made him the RB3 in FPG behind only CMC and Kyren Williams last season. It’ll be very interesting to see how much Samaje Perine plays on passing downs as the year progresses. McKinnon ran a route on a whopping 74% of the Chiefs' third-down pass plays, which was the third-highest rate among RBs, and trailed only Christian McCaffrey (79%) and Bijan Robinson (74%). By comparison, Pacheco was the RB69 in third-down snaps (11.6%). Perine ran a route on 53% of the Broncos’ third downs last season (RB11) and led all running backs in yards per route run (2.22) while finishing seventh in target per route run (0.26).
Derrick Henry – Over his career, Henry has been one of fantasy football most game-script-dependent runners. Since 2018, Henry averages 22.6 PPR points per game when the Titans won, but just 12.6 FPG in losses. The Ravens are 3-point underdogs in Kansas City. RB Justice Hill figures to soak up some passing-down work.
FLEX Plays
Zay Flowers – Projects as a fine WR3. Flowers saw a 24.3% first read target share (WR35) and averaged just 9.3 Half-PPR per game (WR43) in 10 games with Mark Andrews. He went for 5/115/1 receiving (on eight targets) against the Chiefs in the AFC Championship Game, but Andrews was not close to 100% back in his first game returning from a brutal high ankle injury. Andrews was healthy enough to run a route on just 24% of the team’s pass plays in that game.
Sit ‘Em
Xavier Worthy – He should immediately be a full-time player out of the gates with Brown sidelined. Mahomes will desperately want to hit Worthy on a deep ball, but this is about as rough of a matchup as possible in that regard. The Ravens elite secondary allowed a league-low 20.6% catch rate and the second-lowest passer rating (34.6) on throws of 20+ air yards last season.
Packers at Eagles (Friday – International game in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil)
Must Start
Jalen Hurts – This is a reminder that Hurts dealt with nagging knee pain for all of last season, which resulted in a big dip in his rushing. Hurts averaged 35.6 yards per game on the ground in 2023 after putting up 51.5 rushing yards per game in 2021-22. He’s scored 38 rushing TDs across 47 regular season starts, leading all players in this span.
A.J. Brown
Saquon Barkley – Geared up to be a bell cow. He will still get his goal-line carries, but it’s hard to stop The Push. Hurts saw more carries than D’Andre Swift inside the five-yard line last year (16 to 14). How valuable can this bell cow role be with Hurts at QB? That’s the big question here. Hurts steals touchdowns and doesn’t throw to his running backs often. Over the last three years, Eagles RBs have ranked 24th (2021), 31st (2022), and 16th (2023) in receptions.
Josh Jacobs – His role is going to be as good as possible for a Matt LaFleur backfield to start the season. A.J. Dillon (neck) is out for the year and rookie Marshawn Lloyd has barely practiced in August-September while he’s dealt with nagging hip and hamstring injuries.
Start ‘Em
Jordan Love – Was arguably the hottest QB in the league from November-December last season. Love closed the final 12 games with 261.1 passing yards per game (7.83 YPA) and a stellar 26:5 TD-to-INT ratio. He put up 20.3 FPG (QB5) in this stretch and was still 1.8 FPG away from top-3 levels, further highlighting how hard it is for pocket passers to truly compete with the likes of Allen, Jackson, and Hurts at their peak. Love is a back-end QB1 for Week 1 decisions.
FLEX Plays
DeVonta Smith – Over the last two seasons, Smith is the WR15 in receptions (5.3), WR19 in receiving yards (68.5), and WR16 in PPR points (14.6) on a per-game basis. He’s been forced to live on a lower volume diet with A.J. Brown commanding many first-reads. Smith is WR23 in targets per game (7.5) since 2022.
Sit ‘Em
Jayden Reed, Christian Watson, and Romeo Doubs – I really hope you’re not forced to decide between Packers receivers in Week 1. All three of these receivers project within 1.4 PPR points of each other for Opening Day. Romeo Doubs (72%) and Watson (67%) led the Packers WR/TE rotation in route share followed by Luke Musgrave (59%), Reed (57%), Dontayvion Wicks (33%), and Tucker Kraft (25%) in their eight games together last season. Philadelphia will rebound defensively. The Eagles hired a significant improvement in DC Vic Fangio, they just remade their secondary, and they will run into better injury luck after losing so many key players in last season’s implosion. We have Reed projected the highest at just WR42 overall on the Week 1 slate.
Dallas Goedert – I really hope that you’re seeking out more upside at tight end than Goedert. He doesn’t have a huge ceiling in fantasy football because he’s scored between 3 and 5 TDs in six straight seasons.
Luke Musgrave – Unfortunately, the Packers are also going to run a committee at TE. In their two playoff games, TE Tucker Kraft led Luke Musgrave in routes (32 to 16) and targets (9 to 7). HC Matt LaFleur said that his plan at TE, “will fluctuate on a game-by-game basis… it’s a good problem to have.”
Stash’ Em
Marshawn Lloyd – He missed practically all of August – in a very Kendre Miller-like fashion – but I am leaving the light on here. Lloyd was arguably the most explosive RB in the rookie class. Even better than Jonathon Brooks. With 5.66 Yards Created and 0.43 missed tackles forced, Lloyd posted the top marks in the class. HC Matt LaFleur has always preferred a committee.
Dontayvion Wicks – Deep leagues only. Wicks led all Packers receivers in yards per route run last season and his 581 receiving yards ranks 10th-most among rookie WRs drafted in Rounds 5-7 since 1992.
Pittsburgh Steelers at Atlanta Falcons
Must Start
Bijan Robinson
Start ‘Em
Drake London – New QB Kirk Cousins has delivered a catchable, accurate pass on at least 77% of pass attempts in three straight seasons, and he peaked at 81.4% last year. That was just barely behind Dak Prescott (81.5%) for the league lead. For reference, Atlanta’s quarterbacks threw an accurate pass just 72.3% of the time last season. That ranked 30th. It was, unfortunately, an “improvement”, though. In 2022, Atlanta’s QBs gave their receivers a catchable ball 71.8% of the time.
Kyle Pitts – Dealing with a minor hamstring injury. Not only did he deal with F-tier QB play last season, but some of Pitts’ poor 2023 season was due in part to his health. Pitts was running with a noticeable hitch in his running gait early last year, and he confirmed that he was dealing with the effects of anMCL and PCL injury sustained in 2022. Before the injury, Pitts was fourth among TEs in average separation score (ASS) at 0.17 and he led the position in win rate (28.3%) on his routes. By comparison, Pitts’ ASS fell to a lowly -0.02 with a 7.4% win rate in 2023.
FLEX Plays
George Pickens – This is a tough matchup in shadow coverage up against Falcons CB A.J. Terrell. Last season, Terrell allowed just 0.19 fantasy points per route run in his coverage. This tied with Browns stud CB Denzel Ward as the 11th-best mark for perimeter CBs.
Najee Harris – The Steelers RBs are the definition of weekly FLEX plays. My guess is that Harris is slightly more involved than usual after Jaylen Warren has missed a few weeks with a hamstring injury. Warren took an even bigger slice of the pie from Harris last season, going from 32% of the snaps as a rookie up to 48%. This is a true committee. Warren marginally out-scored Harris in PPR FPG by one-tenth of a point. New OC Arthur Smith loves to rotate his running backs – almost to a fault. There is a good chance that Warren will be a little more involved in the red zone this season. The Steelers' old staff gave Harris 45 carries inside-the-10 (78% share) compared to just 12 for Warren (21% share) in the last two seasons. By comparison, Bijan Robinson handled just 44% of carries inside-the-10 while Tyler Allgeier handled 37% last year.
Stream ‘Em
Justin Fields – Immediately joins the low-end QB1 streaming radar. Russell Wilson is nursing a nagging calf injury. Over the last two seasons, Fields has averaged 64.3 rushing yards per game. This leads all QBs by a margin over Lamar Jackson (56.6). The rushing has elevated Fields to fantasy football’s QB6 in FPG (18.8) in this span, trailing only Allen, Mahomes, Hurts, Jackson, and Burrow.
Sit ‘Em
Jaylen Warren – Working back from a pulled hammy in mid-August.
Kirk Cousins – A great QB2 in SuperFlex leagues, there are simply too many good options to consider streaming Cousins in Week 1 with every QB healthy. Pittsburgh is a tough matchup. The Steelers allowed the ninth-fewest FPG below the opposing QBs average (-1.5) last season. Atlanta’s implied team total this week (22.8 points) is just 16th.
Pat Freiermuth
Darnell Mooney
Stash’ Em
Tyler Allgeier – One of the best contingent upside handcuffs in fantasy along with Blake Corum, Marshawn Lloyd, and Jordan Mason.
Tennessee Titans at Chicago Bears
Start ‘Em
Caleb Williams – In his first-ever NFL start, the Williams-led Bears are implied to score 24.3 points based on the over/under (45 points) and spread (CHI -4). This trails only the Bills (27.3), Lions (27.3), Dolphins (26.3), Texans (25.8), Eagles (25.5), and Chiefs (24.8). Bullish. The Titans have a horrible pass rush.
FLEX Plays
D.J. Moore – Over the last three combined seasons, Moore is the WR9 in YPRR (2.82) on all targets that were not designed (like screens). This just marginally trails CeeDee Lamb (2.90) and Brandon Aiyuk (2.84). Keep in mind, this is in spite of the fact that he’s seen garbage QB play regularly. Moore’s catchable target rate (74.7%) is 56th-of-69 WRs, with at least 150 targets since 2021. Enter Caleb Williams.
D’Andre Swift – If you’re not rolling out Swift as a RB2/FLEX in this spot, when are you ever going to? The Bears are at home, favored to win, and have the seventh-highest team total for Week 1.
Keenan Allen – Made me look foolish en route to a WR3 finish in FPG (21.1 PPR) last season. This is a tricky projection for a number of reasons. First and foremost, Allen has significant target competition again. He was mainly competing for targets with Josh Palmer last season after Mike Williams got hurt. However, he showed no signs of skill degradation at all and I can’t dream up a better pairing for him on the perimeter than Moore and Rome Odunze. Allen has still got “it” – he was 8th in separation score (ASS) among 93 qualified WR last season.
Tony Pollard and Tyjae Spears – Titans HC Brian Callahan has called his RBs “interchangeable” all offseason. Spears is a better player than Pollard straight up at this point of their careers. Last season, Spears bested Pollard in yards after contact (2.92 vs. 2.61) and missed tackles forced (0.21 vs. 0.15) on a per-carry basis while running behind a worse offensive line in Tennessee than Pollard had in Dallas. Spears was also far more effective in space, averaging 9.1 yards after the catch as a receiver (RB13), while Pollard was one of the worst receiving backs in the league with just 5.96 YAC/reception (45th-of-47 RB). This is an absolutely brutal matchup here. Chicago’s underrated defense held opposing run games to just 3.8 YPC (fifth-fewest) and a league-low 86.7 rushing yards per game. Pollard and Spears are uninspiring low-end RB2/FLEX options.
Calvin Ridley – Here’s the thing. DeAndre Hopkins was objectively a better receiver than Ridley last season, but he’s nursing a knee injury and just turned 32 years old. Hopkins averaged 2.27 yards per route run (WR17) with slightly worse QB play than Ridley (1.71 YPRR | WR44). Chicago’s secondary closed the final 10 games as the fourth-toughest matchup for opposing receivers (-5.6 FPG below opponents average) last season led by Jaylon Johnson. In fact, no cornerback was targeted less frequently in their coverage than Johnson (0.09 TPRR) last year. I’m betting that the Bears are one of the league's most improved defenses. Ridley is a bet-on-volume WR3.
Sit ‘Em
DeAndre Hopkins – After missing much of August with a knee injury and given this tougher matchup, I want to see where Hopkins is at before putting him in a lineup. It’s obviously a great sign that he’s not going to miss any regular-season action.
Rome Odunze – He’ll eventually take over as the Bears' #2 WR, but for now, it’s hard to project Odunze for more than 5-6 targets in Week 1. Odunze is one of nine WRs to eclipse 2.50 yards and 0.45 first downs on a per-route basis while lining up primarily outside since 2019. The other eight WRs to meet this mark are Marvin Harrison, Troy Franklin, CeeDee Lamb, Ja’Marr Chase, Chris Olave, Devonta Smith, Tee Higgins, and Marquise Brown. Not too shabby of a list.H/T FballInsights.
Cole Kmet – This preseason, he ran fewer routes than Gerald Everett with Caleb on the field. This is a Shane Waldron special. Everett was on the field instead of Kmet on 5-of-6 third-down pass plays, lined up as a big slot receiver. Waldron brought over Everett from their time together with the Rams and Seahawks. Kmet was only the TE20 in route share last season at 62% so he can ill afford a split with Everett if he’s going to remain a streaming TE fantasy option.
Will Levis – YOLO QB2 in SuperFlex.
Houston Texans at Indianapolis Colts
Must Start
C.J. Stroud – Last season, the Colts played Cover-3 zone on nearly 50% of their opponents' pass plays. Stroud (0.49) trailed only Brock Purdy (0.51) in fantasy points per dropback against Cover-3. In two games against them, Stroud ripped the Colts for a 68.5% completion rate, 658 yards, 4 TDs, and 0 INTs.
Anthony Richardson – Has insane rushing upside. In four games under center, Richardson put up 0.76 fantasy points per dropback. For reference, this would have easily led all QBs if he had sustained that rate over the course of 14-15 games. It’s highly unlikely that Richardson will remain this efficient, however. Josh Allen led all QBs in FP/DB (0.64) again last season. Jalen Hurts was QB1 in FP/DB two years ago (0.71). In his four starts – that lasted about 10 quarters total – Richardson averaged 4.5 designed carries per game. This was fourth-most among all quarterbacks, trailing only Lamar Jackson (5.1), Justin Fields (6.2), and Jalen Hurts (6.4).
Jonathan Taylor
Start ‘Em
Nico Collins – Borderline must start in this spot. In Collins’ 12 full games with C.J. Stroud, the Texans receiver shredded Cover-3 zones to the tune of 3.77 yards per route run. The only wide receivers that were more efficient against Cover-3 were Tyreek Hill (3.93 YPRR) and Justin Jefferson (3.91). Collins shellacked the Colts in Week 2 for 7/146/1 when Tank Dell played and then Collins nuked them again in the season finale for 9/195/1 receiving (Dell didn’t play).
Joe Mixon – He’s nearing the edge of the age cliff, but Houston believes they’ve found their bell-cow. OC Bobby Slowik called Mixon “a workhorse in every regard”in July. After he replaced Dameon Pierce mid-season, Devin Singletary’s role was underrated. Over his 11 starts, Singletary was the RB9 in snaps (69%). That is right in line with Mixon’s career norms. His snap rate by year:
2023 – RB8 (69.7%)
2022 – RB12 (65.4%)
2021 – RB7 (67.8%)
Michael Pittman – He’s going to see 8-9 targets in his sleep here. Josh Downs (ankle) didn’t practice on Wednesday and has been out since August 7th.
FLEX Plays
Tank Dell – Ok, yeah. Nico Collins was awesome last year. He’s probably still the “1A” here. The Texans' target share is incredibly difficult to project. However, what if I told you that Dell earned more targets (34) than Collins (25) against Cover-3 in their nine games together last season? That happened. Dell wasn’t as efficient as Collins – Dell posted 2.77 YPRR vs. Cover-3 – but that figure is nothing to turn your nose up at. Dell was the league’s best separator last season by average separation score (0.26) and second-best by win rate (27.8%). He went for 7/72/1 receiving in his second ever pro game last season against the Colts.
Stefon Diggs – He fell from the WR4 in output (17.9 FPG) in Weeks 1-9 all the way down to WR58 (with 6.8 FPG) in Weeks 10-17 last season. It’s worth noting that Diggs did run into a brutally tough schedule during this stretch, with matchups against the Jets, Chiefs, and Cowboys secondaries. Stroud is a kingmaker and will elevate Diggs, but it’s fair to wonder if he’s the third-most talented WR on the team at this point of his career. Diggs is certainly not “washed,” but he did fare worse in ASS (average separation score) and win rate compared to Collins and Dell last season.
Sit ‘Em
Dalton Schultz – Was just barely on the TE1 radar last season (8.2 Half-PPR FPG | TE11), and now Stefon Diggs has been added.
Adonai Mitchell – With Josh Downs out, Mitchell will be tabbed as the Colts primary slot receiver opposite Pittman and Alec Pierce.
Jacksonville Jaguars at Miami Dolphins
Must Start
Tyreek Hill
Start ‘Em
Travis Etienne – He finished as the RB7 in FPG last season and the surge can be credited to a big uptick in usage on passing downs. Etienne’s route share jumped from 42% (RB17) up to 50% (RB8) last season. He finished eighth among all RBs in targets per game (4.3) as a result. Per Jaguars beat reporter John Shipley, “Etienne is set to take a potentially larger piece of the passing game after receiving praise from the offensive staff and quarterback Trevor Lawrence for his growth as a pass-catcher during camp.”
De’Von Achane – His usage in the passing game is what drives his upside. In their eight games together, Achane saw more passing down work (48% route share) compared to Mostert (35%) and earned more targets (33 to Mostert’s 21). No defense gave up more receptions per game (6.6) to opposing running backs than Jacksonville did last season. Achane had the second-best average separation score (0.06) on his routes among running backs, trailing only Christian McCaffrey (0.08).
Jaylen Waddle – Isn’t on the injury report after dealing with a minor issue during August. Jacksonville has a great pass rush, but they’re burnable in the secondary. CB Tyson Campbell is just one man. The Jaguars allowed the fourth-most fantasy points (22.2 per game) and the sixth-most receiving yards (123 per game) to opposing outside wide receivers last season.
Evan Engram – Miami allowed the eighth-most FPG above average to opposing TEs last season. It only got worse from there after all of their injuries on defense. The Dolphins closed out the campaign getting shellacked for 16.3 PPR FPG by tight ends (final 5 games).
FLEX Plays
Raheem Mostert – Still the lead RB in the red zone. On plays inside-the-10, Mostert led Achane in carries 20 to 10 in their eight games together (including playoffs).
Christian Kirk – After missing the last few weeks with a calf injury, Kirk is ready to go in Week 1. He is not listed on the team’s opening injury report. Since joining the Jaguars, Kirk is the WR24 in PPR points per game (13.5). This is just behind D.K. Metcalf (13.7) over the last two seasons. He might not have a high ceiling, but he is underappreciated. Kirk quietly posted the 16th-best mark in both YPRR (2.26) and average separation score (0.17) among WRs last season. Miami allowed the 6th-most TDs to slot receivers (10) last year.
Brian Thomas – CB Jalen Ramsey is nursing a hamstring injury. Miami allowed the eighth-most FPG above opposing WR average (+4.2) over their final 10 games last season and that was with Ramsey after he returned from injury in Week 8. This is not a bad spot at all. However, this is such an excellent week for wide receivers that it’s hard to get too excited. Thomas is a swing for the fences WR3/FLEX.
Stream ‘Em
Trevor Lawrence – This is a pretty good spot for Lawrence to get out of the gates hot in this game that has the third-largest total (49 over/under). Miami’s defense is really tough to project after they sustained so many injuries last year and just changed out their defensive coordinator. DE Jaelen Phillips (Achilles) likely won’t be available on Sunday.
Tua Tagovailoa – Tua is also on the board as a lower-end streamer in this possible shootout. Of course, Miami’s RBs could hog all of the touchdowns here. The Dolphins have the third-best implied team total on the slate (26.3) trailing only the Bills and Lions (27.3). The Jaguars have a good pass rush, but were burnable in the secondary last season (+2.6 FPG allowed above opposing QB average – sixth-most).
Sit ‘Em
Gabe Davis – You’re putting this guy in a lineup in Week 1?! No.
Jonnu Smith – He’ll likely form some sort of rotation with Durham Smythe, but he gives the Dolphins a yards-after-catch threat that HC Mike McDaniel hasn’t had.
Stash ‘Em
Jaylen Wright – If you’re looking to swing for the fences with your last bench spot entering Week 1, Wright is that swing. He finished second in the class in Yards Created per carry (5.4) and was third-best in missed tackled forced (0.36 per carry). Achane and Mostert aren’t exactly pillars of perfect injury histories.
Arizona Cardinals at Buffalo Bills
Must Start
Josh Allen
Start ‘Em
James Cook – I have major questions about Cook’s fantasy outlook this season, but this is undeniably a great opening matchup as a large home favorite. Arizona hemorrhaged a league-high 143.2 rushing yards per game and 4.67 YPC (fourth-most) last season. I question his upside. Worryingly, Cook ranked RB52 in snap rate inside-the-5 (goal-line) last season at 35%. The Bills signed Latavius Murray off of the sofa and handed the ball to him 12 times at the goal line, while Cook had just five. The sample on Cook’s red-zone ability has been absolutely terrible. He’s handled 22 carries inside-the-10 in his career and has one (1!!) TD to show for it.
Marvin Harrison – Despite all of their injuries last season, the Bills still held opposing receivers to the seventh-fewest FPG below average (-4.3). This is a Sean McDermott stat. This might not be the best opening matchup, but this game has obvious shootout appeal (48 over/under), with the Bills pressing the scoring pace. Kyler Murray has somehow become underrated. The only time he’s ever had a WR1 like Harrison was end-prime DeAndre Hopkins in 2020, and that duo connected for 115/1407/6 receiving (on 160 targets). Hopkins was WR5 in fantasy. This would be a ceiling outcome for Harrison, clearly.
Kyler Murray – Since his rookie season in 2019, Murray is QB5 in fantasy points per game (20.2) and fourth in rushing yards per game (37.7) in this span. In his first year back from an ACL injury, Murray was QB12 in FP/DB (0.50) and QB10 in FPG (18.9). He should also see a small uptick in designed carries. He averaged 3.5 per game last season (sixth-most among QBs). Murray averaged 4.3 designed carries per game back in 2021 and 3.8 in 2022. We should also see the Cardinals' pass rate spike with the addition of Harrison after they ranked a lowly 28th in pass rate over expectation last season (in Murray’s starts).
Trey McBride – Across 10 starts from Weeks 8-18 after taking over for vet Zach Ertz, McBride led all TEs in target share (26%), first-reads (32% share), he was fourth in yards per game (65.5), and fifth in yards per route run (2.16). McBride’s 15.0 PPR FPG in this 10-game stretch would have bested Kelce as the TE1 in points per game had he sustained over the course of the season. Of course, Marvin Harrison is going to command targets, and McBride’s lofty target share is sure to fall. However, very few tight ends ever earn as many targets as McBride did to close out last season. He’s a baller.
Dalton Kincaid – In 14 games with Dawson Knox active, Kincaid averaged a meager 7.5 PPR points per game on a 14% target share. Knox (8% target share) didn’t see many looks, but he’s just another small cut out of what is a tricky target share pie to divvy out. Knox actually saw one more end-zone target (4) than Kincaid (3), too. Kincaid is obviously set for a larger role and more production in his second season. Arizona’s defense provides a soft opening matchup. At the absolute worst, he’s the TE10 on the Week 1 slate.
FLEX Plays
James Conner – This is a tough spot as a large road underdog, especially since Conner isn’t super involved as a receiver. In fact, he way overperformed based on his role last season. It’s a red flag for regression. Conner was the RB13 in PPR FPG (15.5) but his role was only worth 13.5 expected PPR FPG (RB19) because he was so lightly used in the passing game. A total of 31 RBs ran a route on a higher rate of their team’s pass attempts than Conner (36%) and he averaged a career-low 12.7 receiving yards per game as a result.
Sit ‘Em
Keon Coleman, Curtis Samuel, and Khalil Shakir – This matchup is incredible, but it’s also so hard to trust anyone here. Curtis Samuel (toe) returned to full practice on Wednesday after missing the last few weeks of August. Coleman will play the most out of the group. Khalil Shakir actually led the Bills in receiving (50.9 yards per game) over Dalton Kincaid (48.7) and Stefon Diggs (48.2) over Buffalo’s final 12 games. He saw 51 fewer targets than Diggs and 26 fewer targets than Gabe Davis in this span. Shakir remains my favorite overall play, but all of these guys are WR4 options in Week 1.
Stash’ Em
Trey Benson – James Conner, now 29 years old, has missed at least three games in five of the last six seasons.
Ray Davis – The handcuff to James Cook, and he could steal some goal-line work.
New England Patriots at Cincinnati Bengals
Must Start
Bengals D/ST – The Patriots have the worst offensive line in the NFL and the lowest implied team total (16.3 points) by a mile.
Start ‘Em
Ja’Marr Chase – He’s chasing the bag – let’s be real, multiple bags – but there is no way you’re overthinking this one. Chase doesn’t need to practice very much to stay on point with Joe Burrow.
Joe Burrow – This is a great matchup for Burrow to shake off the rust and get back in form quickly. Over the last three combined seasons, he’s the QB5 in fantasy points per game, trailing only QB1 Josh Allen, QB2 Jalen Hurts, QB3 Patrick Mahomes, and QB4 Lamar Jackson. In this span, Burrow is third in passing yards per game with 271.3. That trails only Mahomes (285.4 YPG) and Justin Herbert (274.2). The Bengals' pass rate over expectation has risen in three straight seasons in Burrow’s starts. In 2021, they were 10th (+4.4%). Two years ago, their PROE rose to +9.6% (second-highest). Last year? Well, well, well. Their pass rate shot up to +11.2% in Weeks 1-10. The Patriots traded away their best pass rusher, Matthew Judon, to Atlanta a few weeks ago and will be without DL Christian Barmore (NFI list – blood clots). Tee Higgins’ (hamstring) absence does lower Burrow’s floor.
FLEX Plays
Rhamondre Stevenson – Over the last two combined seasons, Stevenson is the RB9 in snaps (65%) and RB6 in targets per game (4.8). Only Ekeler (201), McCaffrey (191), and Kamara (163) have earned more total targets than Stevenson (139) in this span. He’ll need as many targets in space as he can get after running behind this offensive line. Stevenson will live in the RB2/FLEX area this season. The Bengals re-tooled their defensive line this offseason after they were trampled for 4.70 YPC (third-most) last year.
Chase Brown and Zack Moss – They’re definitely on the board as RB2/FLEX plays. New England played stout run defense last season, but they’re missing a key cog in Barmore. Chase Brown gave the Bengals some big plays late last season, and he’s inarguably earned a longer look as a part of a 1A / 1B committee. Over the final six games of last season, Brown rushed for 42/173/0 and added 11/149/1 receiving (on 12 targets). Moss profiles as the early-down and goal-line back. Brown could carve out a large role in the passing game, especially if he improves in pass protection. Tee Higgins’ (hamstring) absence could lead to a few extra carries for the Bengals RB duo.
Sit ‘Em
Patriots WRs – This will open up as some sort of rotation between Ja’Lynn Polk, Demario Douglas, KJ Osborn, and Tyquan Thornton. Polk has the most upside by far and is a stash for late in the season, but we won’t be using Patriots receivers often in start/sit leagues early this season.
Andrei Iosivas – He’s in play as a desperation WR3/FLEX with Higgins out.
Hunter Henry – Missed all of the preseason with a foot injury, but he’s practicing fully ahead of Week 1. This was the premier matchup for TEs last season after the Bengals struggled so hard against TEs. Henry is only in play in TE premium formats.
Carolina Panthers at New Orleans Saints
Start ‘Em
Alvin Kamara – He notched his fifth top-10 finish in PPR points per game among RBs last season (RB5 | 17.5 FPG). That’s the good news. The bad news is that he started to show his age, though. Only Zach Charbonnet, Ezekiel Elliott, Austin Ekeler, and Kareem Hunt forced fewer missed tackles per touch than Kamara last season. Carolina allowed the 10th-most rushing yards per game last year and got worse defensively this offseason. EDGE Brian Burns is now a Giant.
Chris Olave – With a very thin WR corps after him and Shaheed, Olave is set to easily set a new career high in targets. As a signal of things to come, Olave drew 8 targets on just 15 pass attempts from Derek Carr across five drives of work this preseason. After Michael Thomas was done for the season with an injury in Week 10, Olave quietly closed out the final seven games of his season by averaging 16.1 PPR FPG. This would have made him the WR15 over the full season if he sustained that pace – just behind Deebo Samuel. Despite a concussion and a nagging ankle sprain, Olave stepped up and still shredded defenses to the tune of 2.86 yards per route run (WR6) in this stretch without Thomas. For reference, Olave was just a solid WR3 in Weeks 1-9 with Thomas, as he averaged 1.76 YPRR (WR43), and he put up 13.1 PPR FPG (WR29).
FLEX Plays
Chuba Hubbard – In his 12 games as the Panthers starting RB last season, Hubbard averaged 16.9 carries and 62.3 rushing yards per game with 5 TD on a dead Carolina offense. Now, he has a coaching upgrade in Dave Canales and an improved offensive line. I’m just not sure that Hubbard will get the same role that he did last season when he was playing on 65-70% of the snaps. Canales alluded to more of a rotation between Hubbard and Miles Sanders in his Monday press conference.
Sit ‘Em
Diontae Johnson – This is a rough opening draw for Johnson. The Saints always play stout in the secondary, and last season was no exception. Only the Ravens (0.24) allowed fewer fantasy points per route run than the Saints (0.26) to opposing outside receivers last season. CB Marshon Lattimore is back fully healthy after missing the final seven games with an ankle injury.
Bryce Young
Derek Carr – Might have had the most bizarre 2023 season for a QB. Carr gutted through a shoulder injury that should have required him to miss at least one week while playing for an unimaginative offensive coordinator in Pete Carmichael. Only the Steelers (15.5%) used play-action less often than the Saints (15.7%) last season. The Saints were also dead last in motion rate before or during the snap, according to our FP Data (24%). On top of all of this, Carr was the NFL’s version of a roller-coaster. He was either throwing deep or checking down with little in between. Hopefully, new OC Klint Kubiak can provide some structure.
Rashid Shaheed – Off of the injury report after missing most of August with a hamstring injury. Shaheed will see a larger role this season than in previous years, but we’re just hoping that Derek Carr can support one fantasy-relevant WR, let alone two.
Adam Thielen
Xavier Legette
Stash’ Em
Jonathon Brooks – He’ll miss the opening four weeks, but all that I know is that Brooks profiles like a future top-20 fantasy RB2 for the stretch run in Weeks 8-17. Brooks posted top-3 marks in the class in both Yards Created per carry (4.79) and missed tackles forced per carry (0.39). Among the 14 previous second-round top-50 overall selections in the NFL Draft at running back over the last 10 years, nine have gone on to finish as a top-20 scorer in fantasy points per game as a rookie. That’s 64.3%. HC Dave Canales noted that Brooks will be a versatile player within their scheme, especially in the passing game.
Taysom Hill – In play as a streamer in leagues where you can use him at TE. In the 11 contests where he played at least 25 snaps last season, Hill averaged 12.3 PPR points per game. That would have made him TE8 in FPG over Cole Kmet. Hill has morphed into the Saints “1B” goal-line RB. Kamara has 28 carries (5 TDs) inside-the-10 over the last two seasons, while Taysom Hill (26 carries – 7 TDs) is right behind him. This only includes the 26 games where both players were active. Juwan Johnson is not going to miss any time after an offseason foot surgery. Johnson will cut into Hill’s playing time. However, I buy that Hill’s role is going to grow given the talent deficiencies on this offense after Olave, Kamara, and Shaheed.
Minnesota Vikings at New York Giants
Must Start
Justin Jefferson – After he came back from a midseason hamstring injury, Jefferson dropped a casual 30/476/2 receiving (on 44 targets) in four games with Nick Mullens last season. It’s a small sample size, but Jefferson’s efficiency did not dip at all. He averaged 3.03 YPRR (157 routes) with Mullens and 2.99 YPPR (191 routes) with Kirk Cousins. The Vikings' passing volume will dip with Darnold under center, but this should still be a pass-first offense. Minnesota led the NFL in passing yards (4,700) last season, and that was with Cousins missing half of the year. In fact, they were still 5th in pass rate over expectation (+4.3%) and 10th in pass rate when the game was within a score (63%) from Weeks 9-18 last season without Cousins. HC Kevin O’Connell loves to sling it. The Giants might have a great pass rush now, but their secondary is still suspect.
Start ‘Em
Aaron Jones – The Giants' run defense was trampled last season for 132.4 yards per game (fourth-most), a mark that new DC Shane Bowen is sure to try and fix. Bowen previously spent the last three seasons with the Titans, where he coached some of the toughest run defenses in the game. Jones balled out to close last season, and this is the healthiest that he will be all year. You’re playing him as a RB2. However, I don’t think this matchup is a cakewalk any longer. Burns, Lawrence, and Thibodeaoux are a sick front.
Malik Nabers – Has an alpha-WR1 profile after he broke out for 72/1017/3 receiving (in 14 games) as a 19-year-old sophomore at LSU. Then, he went off for 89/1569/14 receiving (in 13 games) last season. With the addition of Nabers, the hope is that Daniel Jones takes a big step forward. The Giants desperately need Nabers to stretch the field. Jones threw deep — over 20 yards in air — on a league-low 6.9% of his pass attempts last season. That figure has to rise considerably if we’re going to get a solid ceiling out of Nabers in fantasy. Daniel Jones is averaging 208.5 passing yards per game with a 3.3% TD rate since he entered the league in 2019. He’s never had a single season above the league average in yards per pass attempt (7.0). His career-high was 6.8 YPA (24th-best) in 2022. Since 2019, Daniel Jones’ 3.3% passing touchdown rate ranks 39th-of-40 QBs. The only QB with a worse TD rate in this span? Yeah, that’d be Zach Wilson (2.3%).
FLEX Plays
Devin Singletary – The Vikings have a chance to field one of the toughest run defenses in the NFL this season after they just drafted Dallas Turner. DC Brian Flores is in his second season after he just coached up this unit to 3.76 YPC (fourth-lowest) and a league-low 2% explosive run rate (of 15 or more yards) in 2023. Minnesota was a bottom-10 run defense the year prior. Singletary is the definition of a bet-on-volume RB2.
Sit ‘Em
Jordan Addison – He fell from 15.8 PPR FPG in eight starts with Cousins to just 10.5 FPG with the Vikings' backups last season. That’s a small red flag, but his extremely mid efficiency is a massive sign for regression. Addison ranked a lowly 50th among WRs in yards per route run (1.63) and he was 49th in first-read target share (19.5%). Can Sam Darnold support multiple fantasy options after Justin Jefferson?
Sam Darnold – SuperFlex leagues only.
Daniel Jones – I really hope that the Giants lit that Texans preseason game tape on fire and then sent the ashes on a rocketship to Mars.
Stash’ Em
Tyrone Tracy – Off of the injury report (ankle) and practicing fully heading into Week 1. He will be the change-of-pace RB behind Singletary, but he has the talent for much more. His 4.77 Yards Created and 0.35 missed tackles forced per carry both rank fourth-best in the class. He showed excellent elusiveness and quick feet to make instant cuts, as 57% of his total missed tackles forced were by his elusiveness alone – like jukes.
Theo Johnson – In FFPC or TE premium leagues only. Based on preseason usage, Johnson already has a slight lead over Daniel Bellinger heading into Week 1. There is a clear runway for a larger role and he’s another absolute freak Penn State athlete with ideal size.
Denver Broncos at Seattle Seahawks
Start ‘Em
Ken Walker – In their 13 games together, Walker saw way more carries than Zach Charbonnet (189 to 60) but the rookie played more in the passing game over Walker. Charbonnet ran 183 routes to Walker’s 152. The only running backs that saw a higher share of their team’s carries than Walker (66%) last season were Josh Jacobs (77%), Kyren Williams (69%), and Joe Mixon (67%). New OC Ryan Grubb hyped up Walker’s ability in the passing game, signaling that a more prominent role might be on tap. More passing game work is all that Walker needs to morph from a low-end RB2 to possibly a low-end RB1. No run defense gave up more YPC to opposing runners than Denver (4.97) last season.
D.K. Metcalf – He will draw shadow coverage from CB Patrick Surtain in Week 1. We’re high on Geno Smith (more below) which elevates Metcalf, but this is far from an ideal matchup. Surtain wasn't a shut down CB last season, but he was still very good. He limited opposing receivers to just 1.17 YPRR in his coverage.
FLEX Plays
Javonte Williams – The Broncos backfield is clear-cut right now. Javonte Williams will play on 50-60% of early-downs with Jaleel McLaughlin mixing in heavily in passing situations. The duo split snaps 11 to 9 – in favor of McLaughlin – on Nix’s 20 preseason snaps in Week 2. Rookie RB Audric Estime is the direct backup to the early-down role. The Broncos have an underrated offensive line, but it’s really hard to get excited about Williams’ outlook in Bo Nix’s first career start as a road underdog attached to an 18-point implied team total.
Jaxon Smith-Njigba – This is a pretty interesting opening spot for Smith-Njigba to prove that he’s worthy of a much more significant role than last season. Actually, his rookie season role was just coaching malpractice. Don’t hold it against him. Smith-Njigba’s 6.4-yard average depth of target ranked 78th-of-81 WRs. JSN averaged an absurd 4.01 YPRR in his 2021 season at Ohio State on a much more normal 9.3-yard aDOT (PFF). With Broncos CB Pat Surtain likely traveling with Metcalf, this is a chance for JSN to break free. We’re on him as a WR3 play here. Last season, Metcalf earned 42% of the targets on throws of 20 or more air yards, followed by Lockett (34%) and then JSN (14%). I expect that Smith-Njigba will be more involved down the field under new OC Ryan Grubb.
Stream ‘Em
Geno Smith – He’s good! Get over it! Smith has made 36 starts for the Seahawks over the last three seasons, in which he’s QB13 by fantasy points per game. Additionally, Smith ranks 13th in yards per game, 14th in touchdown rate, and 10th-best in YPA among the 39 QBs with 500 pass attempts since 2021. You shouldn’t need a Week 1 streamer, but this is objectively a good spot for Smith to open the season as a home favorite against a weaker defense (outside of Patrick Surtain). The Broncos allowed the fifth-most passing fantasy points per game last season.
Sit ‘Em
Courtland Sutton – Seahawks stud CBs Riq Woolen and Devon Witherspoon only appeared in 11 full games together last season due to injuries. They’re both healthy now. Rookie QB Bo Nix is making his first career start.
Tyler Lockett – He’s been limited by a thigh injury for all of the preseason, but he will suit up in Week 1. This is a fine spot for him as a WR3. Lockett is getting close to falling off of theAge Curve. He’s entering Year 10 at 32 years old. Per Ryan Heath’s excellent analysis, this is when receivers typically start really falling off. On average, receivers in Year 10 score 80.5% of their career baseline PPR average. If he were to regress similarly, this would take Lockett from a fringe WR3 to a replacement-level WR4.
Bo Nix – Stream Seahawks D/ST. I’m buying that Seattle is one of the most improved units defensively under new HC Mike MacDonald.
Jaleel McLaughlin – He will be a thorn in Williams’ side all season long, but I don’t know if I see a large enough role for weekly fantasy relevance outside of deep PPR leagues.
Stash’ Em
Zach Charbonnet – We’ll see if he has any standalone value or if Walker actually morphs into a bellcow. If it’s the latter, then Charbonnet is just a good straight-up handcuff.
Noah Fant – In FFPC or any TE premium (1.5 PPR FP) league. A larger role in a new vertical passing attack under OC Ryan Grubb could help make Fant fantasy-relevant. Since 2019, he ranks tied for 6th with Kyle Pitts in yards per target (7.9) among the 23 tight ends with at least 250 looks in this span. This trails only George Kittle (10.0 YPT), Travis Kelce (8.9), Dallas Goedert (8.6), Mark Andrews (8.4), and Darren Waller (8.4). Over the last two seasons in Seattle, Fant has subsided into fantasy irrelevance as a part of a committee with Will Dissly and Colby Parkinson. The only player on the roster who is capable of taking snaps from Fant now is blocking TE Pharaoh Brown (foot | questionable).
Las Vegas Raiders at Los Angeles Chargers
Start ‘Em
Davante Adams – Was the WR5 by expected Half-PPR fantasy points per game (17.8) last season – tied with Garrett Wilson. However, he only scored 12.6 FPG (WR17). Adams and DeAndre Hopkins saw the most total uncatchable targets (41), followed by Wilson and Calvin Ridley (38) last season. Aidan O’Connell finished 28th-of-33 QBs in catchable throw rate (73.5%) last season. Gardner Minshew (73.1% | 29th) wasn’t any better. Just like last year, Adams is a volume-based WR2.
FLEX Plays
Josh Palmer – This is a brand new offense and with that comes significantly lowered passing volume all around. Palmer is good at the game, though. He ranked 24th among 126 qualifying WRs in average separation score (0.154) while posting the 23rd-best win rate on his routes. In his career, Palmer has averaged a rock-solid 4.7 receptions and 58.6 receiving yards (on 7.1 targets) per game with eight TDs in his 24 starts where he’s played at least 60% of the snaps. The Raiders allowed the sixth-most FP per route run (0.37) to perimeter receivers last season.
Sit ‘Em
Zamir White – Was the most overvalued player in fantasy football as a Round 7 selection. White has never compiled more than 170 touches in a single season of his career in college or the NFL. On Gardner Minshew’s 27 preseason Week 2 snaps, White barely led Alexander Mattison in snaps (14 to 12), and the duo split pass routes (8 apiece). This is after White (59 routes) split pass-down snaps with Ameer Abdullah (48) in the Raiders' final four games last season. White was being drafted as if he has a chance to be a bell cow, but I do not see this in his range of outcomes unless there are injuries. Mattison will mix in. Dylan Laube figures to play a bit, too. I view White as an early-down grinder on a bad projected offense. The Raiders are implied to score 18.8 points (30th).
Brock Bowers – We’ll see if Minshew can sustain Adams before we trust Bowers as a legitimate fantasy TE1. He has the talent to immediately cut into Adams' usually lofty target share. Bowers leads all TEs in NCAA in career scrimmage yards per game (68.3) since 2000. Bowers ran for 19/193/5 and was used on reverses and designed runs because he’s so hard to tackle in the open field. And he trails only hybrid FB/TE Jaylen Samuels (47) in career touchdowns by a TE. Bowers scored 31. Oh, and he did 99% of this as an 18 to 20 year old. He turned 21 last December.
Justin Herbert – Missed most of August rehabbing a foot injury, but he will play. Over the last four seasons, no team has run more plays than Los Angeles. New HC Jim Harbaugh and OC Greg Roman are going to do everything within their power to stop that from happening again. After playing within attacks that were top-5 in pass rate in each of the last three seasons, the Chargers will lean far more run-heavy this season. We’re projecting Herbert to rank 23rd in the league in pass attempts per game (30.5). This would be a huge volume loss, but it’s justified. Last season, Herbert averaged 36.6 passes per game (4th-most) before he missed the final five contests with a broken finger on his right hand. In both 2022 and 2021, Herbert was 2nd in pass attempts per game (40.3), trailing only Tom Brady. And, the legend Keenan Allen is gone. Injury expert Edwin Porrassharply noted that Herbert’s foot injury effectively ends any small chance of him having some additional rushing upside in this new offense — at least early in the season. Herbert has averaged just 14.7 rushing yards per game and has 11 TDs on the ground across 62 starts in his career.
Gus Edwards and J.K. Dobbins – I hope that you have better RB2/FLEX options in Week 1 than these two. I have no idea exactly how this backfield will shake out. We’re giving Edwards a marginally better chance at a TD in our projections.
Gardner Minshew – SuperFlex leagues only. Minshew has finished as a top-15 scorer on a weekly basis in 40% of his starts over the last two seasons (32nd).
Jakobi Meyers
Stash’ Em
Ladd McConkey – He doesn’t have the total production profile like his peers in this class, but a deeper dive shows a ton of upside. He missed four games with a back issue last season, but when he did play, McConkey was great. Only Malik Nabers (3.64), Marvin Harrison Jr. (3.44), and Troy Franklin (3.32) averaged more yards per route run than McConkey (3.26) per PFF. Promisingly, McConkey did most of his work as an outside receiver. Per PFF, McConkey mostly lined up on the perimeter (79% of routes outside), and that is virtually the same rate as Harrison (80%) and Franklin (81%). Veteran D.J. Chark (hip) is on I.R. Chark and second-year WR Quinten Johnston posted awful separation scores last year.
Dallas Cowboys at Cleveland Browns
Must Start
CeeDee Lamb – In 13 games from Weeks 6-19 (including playoffs), Lamb earned a ridiculous 12.5 targets and averaged 115.5 receiving yards per game. If Lamb were to sustain his 27.3 PPR points per game in this stretch, it would easily be the best fantasy football season ever by a wide receiver. Jerry Rice has the two best individual seasons by a receiver in fantasy football history with 26.3 FPG (1987) and 25.9 FPG (1995).
Start ‘Em
Amari Cooper – The Cowboys will be without pick-six artist CB Da’Ron Bland (foot – I.R.), which helps Cooper a little bit in what is a pretty daunting matchup based on last year’s figures. Dallas held opposing WRs to the sixth-fewest FPG below average (-5.0) last season. Trevon Diggs is returning from an ACL injury. In his five full games with Deshaun Watson last season, Cooper put up 28/480/2 receiving (on 39 targets). That’s 17.6 PPR FPG. He has increased target competition now that Njoku officially broke out and Jerry Jeudy is in town, but Cooper was underpriced all summer.
Jerome Ford – Has a fantastic early season chance with Nick Chubb (knee) on PUP. Of course, there is also a decent chance that Ford remains the starter for the entire year if Chubb struggles coming back from a catastrophic knee injury. D’Onta Foreman was brought in as the short-yardage role that Kareem Hunt filled last season.
David Njoku – He averaged fewer targets (5.5 per game) and PPR points (8.9 per game) across Deshaun Watson’s 11 full starts than with the Browns backup QBs (7.4 T/G | 13.0 PPR FPG). He had a Linsanity run with Joe Flacco last season in which he put up 18.6 PPR FPG over his final five games. This wasn’t a fluke. Njoku (7.48) was just barely edged out by George Kittle (7.51) for the position lead in yards after the catch per reception.
Jake Ferguson – We already started to see Ferguson flirt with phenomenal usage over Dallas' final 12 games, in which he averaged a 77% route share (TE7), put up 55.3 yards per game (TE6), and scored as the TE7 on a per-game basis (14.0 PPR). Ferguson had a quietly decent floor last season despite working as a starter for the first time in his career. He recorded at least four receptions in 10 of his final 12 games (including playoffs). This is a brutal matchup against the Browns athletic LB/S corps. Cleveland held opposing TEs to a league-low 33.8 receiving yards per game last year. Ferguson is our TE10 in projections, making him a low-end start.
Sit ‘Em
Dak Prescott – He has finished as the QB10, QB13, QB16, QB2, QB1, QB10, QB11, and QB5 (last season) in fantasy football in his career. This is about as rough of an opening matchup that we could ask for, though. The Browns limited opposing quarterbacks to the third-fewest fantasy points per dropback (0.31) last season. Dallas is implied to score 19.3 points, which is tied with the Steelers for fifth-fewest on the slate.
Jerry Jeudy – Dallas was really tough against slot receivers last season. Only the Jets (-4.2) allowed fewer FPG below the opposing slot receivers average than the Cowboys (-4.0).
Brandin Cooks – Cleveland allowed the second-fewest fantasy points per route run to opposing outside wide receivers (0.26) and that was without CB Denzel Ward for six games.
Deshaun Watson – SuperFlex leagues only. Watson has made 11 full starts over the last two seasons, in which he’s averaged just 201.5 passing yards per game (QB30). Aidan O’Connell averaged 201.6 YPG across 11 appearances last season. For reference, Watson passed for 269.2 YPG in his first four years in Houston.
Stash’ Em
Rico Dowdle – Was an intriguing late-round pick and bench stash. The drumbeat is growing. Athletic’s Saad Yousufreported that he’s in line to be the top running back. Dallas was a mediocre 21st in Team RB FPG (17.7) last season after top-6 finishes in 2022 and 2021. Even with a middling run game, the Cowboys still gave their RBs the 13th-most carries (370), and they had the 11th-most receptions (82). The offense was so good at sustaining drives that the running back volume ended up being pretty good anyway. Obviously, we’re dealing with two very different sample sizes. Tony Pollard had 252 carries last season, while Dowdle had 89. However, Pollard and Dowdle had nearly similar efficiency on a per-carry basis. Pollard averaged 2.61 yards after contact, while Dowdle was slightly ahead of him at 2.82. Both of these RBs forced 0.15 missed tackles forced per attempt. Dowdle was also more efficient in the pass game (1.58 yards per route run) than Pollard (0.89).
Washington Commanders at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Must Start
Mike Evans – He has 10 straight seasons as a top-24 fantasy WR and eight years inside of the top-15. Evans showed zero signs of drop-off last year, and he will be enshrined in Canton one day. This could not possibly be a better opening matchup. Washington was rinsed for a league-high 23.1 Half-PPR FPG by opposing outside receivers last year.
Rachaad White – Among the 23 running backs that carried the rock at least 200 times, White ranked dead last in yards after contact per carry (2.24), missed tackles forced per carry (0.14), and he was 22nd in explosive runs of 10 or more yards (2.2%) last season. Only Josh Jacobs had fewer explosive gains, by a nose hair (2.1%). That’s nightmare fuel. We will see if there are any changes in his role given his poor play, the new coaching staff in town, and with Bucky Irving at least providing a semblance of competition compared to their backfield last season. The good news is that this is an amazing Week 1 matchup. Washington’s front seven allowed a whopping 4.73 YPC and 135.1 yards per game to opposing running backs after they traded DT Montez Sweat last year.
Start ‘Em
Chris Godwin – This is an equally appealing matchup for Godwin. He will be back in his natural position full-time as the primary slot receiver for Tampa this season, according to both theBuccaneers WRs coach andHC Todd Bowles this offseason. He was more efficient in the slot last season, averaging 2.05 yards per route run inside vs. 1.77 when he lined up as a perimeter receiver. Godwin posted a significantly better ASS (separation score) in the slot (0.14 | WR27) as opposed to out wide (0.06 | WR61) last season. The Commanders are starting second-round rookie CB Mike Sainristil at slot.
Jayden Daniels – In his final season at LSU, Daniels rushed for 94.5 yards per game. This is almost on par with Cam Newton’s 2010 Heisman season (105.2), and it’s slightly better than Jalen Hurts (92.7 rush YPG) in his final 2019 season at Oklahoma. Since 2017, no quarterback has scrambled more often or averaged more rushing yards per game on scrambles than Daniels.H/T FballInsights. He’s a rookie making his first start which is always a low floor spot, but Daniels’ rushing ability instantly puts him on the QB1 radar in fantasy.
FLEX Plays
Terry McLaurin – This is largely driven by poor quarterback play, but McLaurin has just one career top-20 finish to his name. That was back in 2020. He’s finished as the WR35, WR26, and WR38 in FPG over the last three seasons. Daniels led all QBs in adjusted completion rate (69% per PFF College) on passes of 20 or more air yards last season at LSU. By comparison, Sam Howell was 29th-of-35 starting QB in adjusted completions (35%) on deep throws last year. As a result, McLaurin ranked 45th-of-56 qualified WRs in catchable target rate. This is after he ranked 40th-of-50 WRs in 2022. Rough. If there is anyone who deserves good QB play, it’s Scary Terry. In new OC Kliff Kingsbury’s four seasons in Arizona, his offenses ranked 1st, 1st, 12th, and 7th in pace per play. This offense should play fast and that will lead to more targets for McLaurin.
Sit ‘Em
Brian Robinson and Austin Ekeler – This duo is just going to cannibalize each other on a mediocre projected offense. Jayden Daniels will steal goal-line TDs, too. Daniels played 29 snaps this preseason. Brian Robinson (16 snaps) and Austin Ekeler (13 snaps) split work down the middle, as expected.
Baker Mayfield – Although, he’s an awesome play if you have him in SuperFlex leagues. Washington’s secondary is rough. No defense allowed more fantasy points per dropback (0.49) than the Commanders last season.
Cade Otton – Through two career seasons, Otton has averaged 2.7 receptions and 25.6 yards per game. He’s averaged fewer yards per game than Noah Fant in this span, and Fant has been a part of a three-way TE committee. His efficiency metrics are horrific. Otton ranked 42nd-of-50 TEs in yards per route run (0.91) last season, which was even worse than his rookie season (0.96 YPRR | 43rd-of-47).
Stash’ Em
Ben Sinnott – In FFPC or TE Premium leagues. Sinnott will be blocked by vet Zach Ertz early in the season, but I see some upside here. Sinnott will not be a FB. He’s a vertical threat up the seam. Sinnott led Kansas State in receiving (49/676/6 in 12 games) last year and posted some pretty strong figures in both yards after the catch (6.8 | fifth-best in class) and missed tackles forced (0.31) on a per reception basis. For reference, Brock Bowers led the TE class in MTF per reception (0.32) per PFF. This is all the more impressive when considering that Sinnott led the TE class with a strong 10.1-yard average depth of target downfield. He was dominating after the catch and making defenders miss on generally deep targets for a tight end. For comparison, Bowers’ aDOT (6.5 yards) was significantly lower. The strong numbers are backed up byBrett Whitefield’s film analysis.
Los Angeles Rams at Detroit Lions (SNF)
Must Start
Amon-Ra St. Brown – The only receiver to be targeted at a higher rate on their routes over the last two seasons is Tyreek Hill (0.35 targets per route run). By comparison, St. Brown (0.31 TPRR) and Davante Adams (0.30 TPRR) are the only other WRs that have earned a target on at least 30% of their routes in this span.
Sam LaPorta – You can’t dial up a better matchup. The Rams allowed the fourth-most yards per game to opposing tight ends (60.4) last season. They just traded away LB Ernest Jones.
Kyren Williams – In 12 starts, Williams finished as the RB2 by fantasy points per game (20.1 Half-PPR) behind CMC (22.6). How much is Blake Corum going to cut in? Rams ace beat reporter Jourdan Rodriguementioned on the 32BeatWriters podcast that HC Sean McVay loves Williams so much that, if McVay could, “he’d sign himself over to be Kyren’s godfather.” McVay has utilized a single RB on at least 60% of the snaps in 41-of-56 possible games over the last three seasons. That’s 73%.
Start ‘Em
Puka Nacua and Cooper Kupp – Across their 12 games, Kupp led the Rams in first-read target share (33%), while Nacua was second (27%) after taking out designed targets (like screens). Nacua averaged 16.9 PPR FPG (WR10), while Kupp put up 14.2 FPG (WR22). After his masterclass 2021 season, injuries have harpooned Kupp’s last two years. Our resident injury expert Edwin Porraslaid out the case for Kupp after two isolated injuries (broken ankle in 2022 and hamstring in 2023). Is he washed? I don’t think so. Among the 53 receivers to run at least 100 routes against man coverage last season, Kupp ranked 23rd in ASS – average separation score (0.16) – just ahead of Puka Nacua (0.15 | 25th). Detroit tried to fix their problem in the secondary this offseason after this unit allowed +5.4 FPG above the opposing wide receivers' average (fourth-most). Nacua went off against Detroit for 9/181/1 in the Wild Card round, while Kupp (5/27 receiving on nine targets) just missed out on a TD on their opening drive.
Jahmyr Gibbs – After returning from a mid-season hamstring injury in Week 10, Gibbs went on to average 15.1 Half-PPR points per game (RB5) in a split backfield with David Montgomery (12.3 FPG | RB20). Montgomery saw more carries (164 to 134) in these 12 games together, but Gibbs earned far more targets (52 to 20). Targets areworth 2.55x more fantasy points than a carry for running backs in PPR leagues. Crucially, Gibbs made up ground on Montgomery in the red zone in their final 12 games together. Montgomery led the duo with 36 carries (8 TDs) by a slim margin over Gibbs (35 RZ carries – 10 TDs).
Jared Goff – Over the last two seasons, Goff averages 21.0 fantasy points per game at home, but that dips to 13.5 FPG on the road. That’s the difference between Goff scoring as a top-5 fantasy QB (at home) and the QB30 on the road.
FLEX Plays
David Montgomery
Stream ‘Em
Matthew Stafford – Over his final seven games (including the Wild Card round), Stafford ripped defenses for 296 yards per game (8.4 YPA) and a 17 TD to 3 INT ratio. He was back to playing at the 2021 Super Bowl champion level. Now, I’m not saying that we can expect him to maintain that level of play that he showed in their final seven games. He averaged a stellar 21.1 FPG (QB5) and scored at least 18.5 FP in 6-of-7 starts in this span. That’d make him one of the best mid-range QB1 options in fantasy football if he maintained that level of production. However, Cooper Kupp is now healthy, and Puka Nacua’s knee injury seems minor. Detroit allowed the fifth-highest yards per pass attempt (7.7) in 2023.
Sit ‘Em
Jameson Williams – We already saw Williams in a near full-time role last postseason. In Detroit’s three games, Williams ran a route on 73% of the pass plays. This was up from 47% during the regular season. In those three playoff contests, Williams was fifth on the Lions in targets (8.1% share) and he hauled in 6/79/1 receiving. By comparison, St. Brown (29% target share) and LaPorta (24%) combined for over half of the Lions targets. Josh Reynolds is vacating a small role (13% target share) and Jahmyr Gibbs will always be in the 12-15% target share range. Williams will take on a larger role this season, but I still think it’s most likely that he’s the fourth target on the team.
Demarcus Robinson
Stash’ Em
Blake Corum – The best one-for-one handcuff in fantasy football. He would be a volume-based RB2 at worst if Kyren Williams misses time.
Colby Parkinson – In FFPC or TE Premium leagues. Parkinson’s contract in free agency was a surprise and might signal a larger role. He got as much guaranteed money ($15.5M) in his contract as Hunter Henry ($15.8)per Over The Cap. Tyler Higbee (knee) will start the season on PUP and may not be able to return to the field until midseason. Higbee is 31 years old and will be nine months removed from surgery on his ACL/MCL in November.
New York Jets at San Francisco 49ers (MNF)
Must Start
Christian McCaffrey – Should be close to full-go after nursing a minor calf injury this August.
Breece Hall
Start ‘Em
Garrett Wilson – The volume has been strong – Wilson was WR9 in target share (27.1%) last season and WR22 two years ago (22.5%). We just need some scores. He has scored a TD on just 2.2% of his career targets. By comparison, Aaron Rodgers’ worst career touchdown rate in a single season is 4.2%. Rodgers' career TD rate is 6.2%. It’d be pretty bullish to expect Rodgers to match his elite career 6% touchdown rate as a 40-year-old coming off an Achilles tear. However, if Wilson just had Rodgers playing at his “worst” season (4.2%) over the last two years, he’d have somewhere between 13-14 TDs. Again, he’s actually scored just seven.
Deebo Samuel – He’s still somehow underrated in fantasy football. He’s finished top-15 among wide receivers in yards per route run in four of the last five seasons, with his down 2022 season being the lone exception. Deebo gets the massive added upside as a runner with16 rushing TDs across 44 games over the last three seasons.
Brandon Aiyuk – Led the 49ers in first-read target share (27.4%) ahead of Samuel (24.1%), Kittle (16.6%), and McCaffrey (13.7%) in their 16 games together (including playoffs). However, Deebo and CMC get all of the layup-designed targets. Last season, Samuel got 21 designed targets (like screens). CMC got 20. Aiyuk didn’t get a single one. This is an obviously tough matchup against the Jets' stout coverage. No unit allowed fewer yards per game (68.6) to opposing outside receivers than New York last year.
George Kittle – If there is one spot where the Jets were a little susceptible last season, it was against tight ends (sixth-most FPG allowed). Kittle is left out of the fun often for a player of his talent level. He averaged just 9.5 fantasy points per game (Half-PPR) in 14 contests, with Deebo Samuel, Brandon Aiyuk, and CMC all on the field last season. That would have made him TE8 behind Evan Engram (10.4) and David Njoku (10.3).
Sit ‘Em
Brock Purdy – He will have all of his weapons and All-Pro LT after all that drama. This is a rough opening matchup for Purdy to do damage. The Jets allowed just 193.8 passing yards per game in 2023 – third-fewest. New York allowed just four quarterbacks to finish top-12 in fantasy points on the week against them in Weeks 1-17.
Aaron Rodgers – The redemption tour begins, but this is clearly not a great Opening Day matchup against a tough 49ers defense. There are better streamers in 1-QB leagues (Stafford, Smith, Lawrence, and Tagovailoa). San Francisco allowed the second-fewest fantasy points per dropback (0.30) last season.
Mike Williams – The Jets are starving for decent play opposite Garrett Wilson. Williams is working back from a torn ACL, but he’s been on track to play in Week 1 since early August. I expect he’ll be on a bit of a pitch count in his debut.
Stash’ Em
Jordan Mason – Has ascended to RB2 after a strong preseason and the misfortune of teammates Elijah Mitchell (hamstring – I.R.) and rookie RB Isaac Guerendo (hamstring). Mason is only rostered in 30% of Yahoo! and just 21% of ESPN leagues. He should be stashed everywhere as one of the most valuable handcuffs in fantasy. If CMC were to miss time, Mason would get a big chance, and we’d likely see Deebo in a larger role.
Tyler Conklin – He’s tied for 8th in targets (174), tied for 7th in receptions (119), and he’s 10th in receiving yards (1,173) among tight ends over the last two combined seasons. He’s scored just 3 TDs across these 34 games, though. He’s seen just seven end-zone targets in this span because the Jets were rarely in the red zone.
