The Everything Report: 2024 Week 8

Hello, and welcome to “The Week 8 Everything Report,” formerly known as “the XFP Report,” but for you long-time readers, it’s the exact same article with a different name. If you’re unfamiliar with XFP, I’ll get to that in a little bit.

What is this article?

If you’re new to this article… every week, we will tell you which players are seeing the best volume for fantasy, most often measured by Expected Fantasy Points (XFP). We’ll tell you who the best buy-low and sell-high candidates are, typically measured by Points Above Replacement (PAR), or the differential between actual- and expected fantasy points. This is an especially effective approach in DFS, where players are typically priced by production rather than volume, though PAR will regress to the mean. And (at the end of the article), we will tell you who the best volume-per-dollar DFS plays are.

What is XFP?

You can access our complete XFP database (which includes other advanced stats like air yards, deep targets, and end-zone targets) here.

Expected fantasy points (XFP) is the best and most comprehensive way of measuring a player’s volume. It’s telling you – based on a player’s unique usage – how many fantasy points that player should have scored. It’s telling you how many fantasy points a perfectly league-average RB, WR, or TE would have scored with that same exact volume. It looks at every individual carry by down and distance and distance from the end zone and every individual target by depth of target and distance from the end zone, and then cross-references each carry and target to each carry and target with those specific qualifiers over a multi-year sample to tell you what exactly those carries and targets are worth (historically).

Expected touchdowns (XTD), same thing. RBs score from the one-yard line on 54% of their attempts. RBs score from the 17-yard line only 3.6% of the time. So why ever use “red zone carries,” which treats both carries the same, as a fantasy stat? I have no idea.

Why doesn’t everyone point to XFP in their fantasy research? I have no idea. Once you have XFP and XTD, you can contrast that with a player’s actual fantasy points or actual touchdown total to tell you how efficient a player has been (PAR). This is especially useful in highlighting regression candidates, buy-low targets, and mispriced players for DFS.

Through seven weeks of action, here are the top 30 players in expected fantasy points (XFP) per game:

The XFP Leaderboard

16 Key Takeaways

1. Fantasy Football’s most valuable WR – Chris Godwin – suffered a season-ending injury.

Chris Godwin has objectively been the most valuable WR in fantasy this season (1.64 WAR). Remember, this stat does not even factor in his lowly Round 7 ADP on Yahoo!, making him even more inarguably one of the best draft picks you could have made this offseason.

Yes, it feels like this season is cursed. And yes, I’m taking it only a little bit personally. If you followed my Draft Guide, I’m guessing you had heavy exposure to many of these players (plus Rashid Shaheed, who hit 16.0 fantasy points in 4 of 5 healthy games).

But we’re not going to sit here, cry, and complain. That’s what losers do.

Instead, we will pick ourselves back up, dust ourselves off, and crush the competition anyway. We owe it to Rice, Godwin, and Shaheed. Let’s do it for them; let’s get them the Championship ring they deserve.

It’s not going to be easy, but it’s going to be worth it. This is what we’re here for. This is why you subscribe to Fantasy Points – for access to this article and our award-winning Waiver Wire column.

A great place to start is by trying to be aggressive in acquiring Round 3 rookie Jalen McMillan. Sure, he’s not going to put up as many fantasy points as a healthy Godwin, but Godwin’s role – the “Cooper Kupp role” in Liam Coen’s offense – is one of the most valuable roles in fantasy. Whoever assumes that role will draw softer matchups running 60-70% of his routes from the slot (while defenses key in on Mike Evans) and will get an outlierishly high number of designed targets per game to bolster his weekly floor; Godwin was averaging 5.7 FPG just on designed targets alone (+50% more than the next-closest player).

McMillan’s prospect profile was pretty sexy. The one knock on him, which caused him to fall in the Draft – but might help him here – was that many teams viewed him as a “slot only” receiver. (At Washington, 67% of his career routes came from the slot.)

The Buccaneers coaching staff spent all offseason hyping him up, and with so many examples, it seemed like much more than typical coachspeak. And then, through the first two weeks of the season (before McMillan’s own injury), McMillan ran only 1 fewer route than Godwin. Last week, McMillan had 8 targets (1 less than Godwin) on just a 54% route share.

I really think McMillan offers league-winning or season-saving upside. The one concern (a relatively big one) is that our film charters have been telling me he’s looked pretty bad on tape. That could be because he’s playing out of position (i.e. he belongs in the slot). Or perhaps he’s just not as good as I thought. So, in deeper leagues, it might also be worth placing smaller FAAB bids on Sterling Shepard and Trey Palmer as well. With Mike Evans (hamstring) also out until after the team’s Week 11 bye and Tampa Bay’s passing game looking as good as it has (2nd in passing yards, 1st in passing touchdowns), any of these WRs could be startable assets in the short-term.

2. Navigating the Brandon Aiyuk injury fallout

Brandon Aiyuk is believed to have suffered a torn ACL. This feels weird to say given that he’s averaged just 8.9 FPG this season, but I believe this will be one of the most impactful injuries of the season when we look back after Week 17.

In 7 games since 2021 without either Aiyuk or Deebo Samuel, George Kittle averages 7.9 targets, 107.1 receiving YPG, and just under 23.0 fantasy points per game. For perspective, those marks would rank as the WR15, the WR3, and the WR1 overall this season. Travis Kelce’s 20.9 FPG in 2020 was the best TE fantasy season ever when he was on 61% of ESPN playoff rosters despite a Round 2 ADP. There’s a world where Kittle matches or exceeds that this season.

Deebo Samuel’s splits without Aiyuk are equally insane. He’s played in five full games since 2021 that Aiyuk either missed or earned less than a 70% route share. Within that sample, Samuel averages 10.8 targets, 133.4 receiving YPG (~WR1), and 26.4 FPG.

I also want to be vacuuming up as much Jauan Jennings as I can get off the waiver wire (he’s currently available in over 50% of all ESPN and Yahoo! leagues). Jennings ranks 5th-best this season in YPRR, behind only A.J. Brown, Nico Collins, Rashee Rice, and Justin Jefferson. Perhaps, more impressively, he ranks 4th in separation win rate, behind only Aiyuk, Brown, and Collins. He’s exceeded a 73% route share in 5 of 7 games that Aiyuk or Samuel have missed over the past three seasons (compared to just a 58.7% route share in games with both of them this season). Given the upside he flashed in Week 3 without Samuel – scoring 46.5 fantasy points (the 15th-most by any WR in a decade) – I think he absolutely could be a league-wrecker, and I’d want my FAAB bids to reflect that.

We also can’t forget Round 1 rookie Ricky Pearsall, who led the team in route share (81.1%) and tied Kittle for the team lead in targets (3) after Aiyuk left the game. He did this just 49 days after being shot in the chest. Though he wasn’t an analytics standout in this rookie class, he ranked top-5 at his position on Brett Whitefield’s board. And he’d be the clear favorite to break out among the unknown quantities in this receiver corps, as fellow rookie Jacob Cowing ran just 8 routes and Ronnie Bell looked atrocious on film (according to the Fantasy Points Data charting staff). But I’m not sure I’d trust him over Jennings, as Pearsall has barely practiced since joining the team (he began camp with a hamstring injury, then missed time with a shoulder injury, and then missed the last 7 weeks since being shot in the chest).

Not every player in this offense is going to be a league winner. I’ve given the bull’s case outcome for all four of them. The actionable takeaway here is to get exposure to whatever piece you can – for most, that will be Jennings (my clear preference) or Pearsall or both if you can, but Samuel (assuming he doesn’t miss extended time with his illness — he was released from the hospital Tuesday) and especially Kittle are attractive buys for win-now dynasty teams who may not already be on another contender’s roster.

3. Navigating the Deshaun Watson injury fallout

Deshaun Watson ruptured his Achilles tendon and is out for the year. The Browns now have two options:

1) Start Jameis Winston (100.3 passer rating this year) and try to make the playoffs despite their 1-6 record.

2) Start Dorian Thompson-Robinson (19.8 passer rating this year) and try to land a top-3 draft pick.

In either case, I think we should expect better results than what we’ve seen through the team’s first 7 games. Although that’s not really saying much because – no hyperbole – the 2024 version of Watson has been the worst QB of the new millennium. Browns receivers rank 10th in air yards this season (1,707), but just 53% of those air yards have been deemed catchable by Fantasy Points Data charting (4th-worst).

If the team opts to go with Winston and keeps the offense as fast-paced and pass-heavy as it was over their first 4 games (when Watson was leading all QBs in dropbacks per game), the results could be tremendous for fantasy.

Remember, from Week 14-on last year, Joe Flacco ranked 2nd among all QBs in FPG (23.2), Amari Cooper led all WRs in FPG (28.7), and David Njoku led all TEs (and would have ranked 3rd among all WRs) in FPG (22.1). It’s been a while, but in his last full season as a starter, Winston supported two top-4 WRs by FPG, while also throwing for 5,109 yards (10th-most in NFL history).

Jerry Jeudy is probably the team’s WR1, although Cedric Tillman clearly out-alpha’d him in Week 7 (perhaps due to the #BackupConnection). Without Cooper, Tillman’s route share jumped to 80.4%, and he caught 8 of 12 targets for 81 yards. Better yet, he led all WRs in XFP (24.2). Expect Tillman to be the single chalkiest player of the Week 8 DFS slate (just $3,300 on DraftKings). And if DTR starts, it’s going to be very hard for me to fade him.

DTR targeted Tillman on a team-high 29.2% of his throws, although he rarely looked Jeudy’s way (4.2% target share). With Winston, the pecking order flipped – Jeudy’s target share rises to a team-high 33.3%, while Tillman's drops to 16.7%.

Jeudy earned a 92.9% route share last week, but saw just 4 targets, catching only 1 for 18 yards. But through the first 4 weeks of the season, he ranked 16th in targets (29), while also leading the team in receiving yards (197), with 49 more than Amari Cooper.

But the most important and obvious takeaway here, is that David Njoku looks like a league-winner. Njoku has easily led the team in first-read target share in back-to-back weeks. Better yet, he led all players at all positions in XFP last week (26.7). In just 11 full quarters of work, Njoku has 27 targets (21 first-read targets) and 19 catches for 137 yards and a score. That equates to 9.8 targets and 14.0 fantasy points per four full quarters. And he’s done this on just 84 total routes, equating to an insane 0.32 TPRR, which would rank 3rd-best among all players at all positions (min. 84 routes run).

4. On their new teams, Amari Cooper and Davante Adams gave fantasy managers immediate reason for optimism.

Amari Cooper ran a route on only 34.3% of the Bills’ dropbacks in his first game with the team. This wasn’t entirely surprising — HC Sean McDermott was uncertain Cooper would even play on Wednesday — but with his role likely to grow as he continues to learn the playbook, the more important takeaway is Cooper’s incredible production within that limited playing time. He led the team in fantasy points (16.6) and ranked 2nd in receiving yards (66) while being targeted on a whopping 42% of his routes.

I’d expect Cooper to remove Mack Hollins (just 1 target on 19 routes) from the field and assume a full-time role in short order. As he’s clearly the best target-earner on the team, the ceiling is pretty exciting.

Joey Porter Jr. lined up across from Davante Adams on only 30.6% of his routes, so while he didn’t have to fight through a full-time shadow, this was another encouraging debut nonetheless. Adams ran just one fewer route than Garrett Wilson but matched him with nine targets (at least by the official box scores — a few were batted down at the line of scrimmage). Just four of those targets were catchable with Aaron Rodgers struggling for much of the night, so regardless of results, Adams immediately stepping into the role we’d have expected is the biggest takeaway for me. Allen Lazard ran just a 60% route share (down from 82.0% over the first six weeks), confirming our expectation that Adams’ arrival would hurt him more than anyone else.

5. It looks like the fantasy community may have underestimated Russell Wilson – he genuinely seems to be a significant offensive upgrade over Justin Fields.

Russell Wilson scored 24.9 fantasy points against the Jets, which was the most they’ve given up to a QB since Tom Brady during the 2021 season.

In multiple ways, Wilson “opened up the offense” in a way that Fields could not. For the first time in a long time, you saw the Steelers' passing game set up the running game (rather than the inverse), and Najee Harris clearly benefited from lighter fronts in this game. In a much tougher matchup this time around, Harris exceeded 100 rushing yards and scored a touchdown for the second straight week.

George Pickens stands to benefit the most from this QB change, and we saw that play out, as he became the first WR to reach reach 100 yards against the Jets’ elite secondary this year. He finished the week ranking 2nd among all WRs in both XFP (21.3) and fantasy points scored (22.1).

I speculated last week and earlier in the season that Pickens would be a perfect stylistic fit for Wilson. Although Wilson’s talents have greatly diminished from what he once was, he still has an elite deep ball and is unafraid to throw to his WRs in tight spaces. (Pickens saw 6 contested targets last week, up from 1.5 per game with Fields.) Pickens has always reminded me of a sort of rich man’s Courtland Sutton, who, with Fields last year, was one of only 6 WRs with double-digit touchdown catches.

Definitely don’t get your hopes up too much – it’s still Russell Wilson in an Arthur Smith-led offense, but Pittsburgh’s Week 7 was highly encouraging at the very least. This week, I like Wilson as a high-end QB2, Pickens as a mid-range WR2, and Harris as a mid-range RB2.

6. Breece Hall is seeing legitimately insane usage and volume. He should be the RB1 in our projections just about every week moving forward.

In the two games since Jeff Ulbrich took over as head coach and Todd Downing took over playcalling, Breece Hall has averaged an 84.2% snap share, which would rank behind only Kyren Williams this season. He’s received 83.3% of backfield rush attempts (which would lead the position) and has handled 5 of the team’s 6 backfield opportunities inside the red zone.

And his role as a pass-catcher is entirely unmatched; he’s run a route on 67.9% of dropbacks, a rate only Christian McCaffrey has topped over any season since 2021. He has a 20.3% target share over the past two games; for comparison, Ja’Marr Chase has a 20.8% target share this season. Again, Christian McCaffrey (in 2022) is the only RB to have maintained above a 20% target share throughout any season over the past three years.

If Hall can maintain this workload, he should be the clear RB1 overall for the rest of the year. If he can post plus-efficiency on it, this could shape up as one of the power-law / league-winning seasons we dream about every offseason. To manage expectations, I’ll mention that our film experts are dubious about Hall still being the same hyper-efficient big-play threat we’ve seen recently, saying: “His burst is gone. He’s still a crafty, skilled player, but that uber-explosive freak he used to be is no longer there.” Still, now that he has this role, we may only be quibbling over the difference between a locked-in top-3 RB finish and a truly legendary season.

7. Brock Bowers is generational.

Brock Bowers leads all players in receptions this season (47). He ranks 8th among WRs in receiving yards (477), with +27.4% more than the next-closest TE (George Kittle). Among all WRs/TEs since the Vietnam War, only Puka Nacua has amassed more receptions through his first 7 career games.

Without Davante Adams and Jakobi Meyers last week, Bowers amassed 25.5 XFP, the 2nd-most of any player at any position. Over the larger sample, he averages 18.2 XFP/G without Davante Adams this year, which would easily rank best of any TE in any full season in the Fantasy Points Data era (+12.3% better than either Travis Kelce’s 2022 or Mark Andrews’ 2021).

The one thing holding Bowers back is the minimal touchdown upside he offers in this Raiders’ offense — the Raiders have one-third as many passing touchdowns as the Buccaneers, for instance. But this does get factored into XFP, so even with that in mind, he is still seeing the most valuable role of any TE in recent memory. Bowers is the overall TE1 in dynasty — as the greatest TE prospect of all time, he was already that for me before he ever stepped foot on an NFL field. In redraft leagues, he’s fighting only George Kittle (explained above) for overall TE1 status, and then there’s a chasmic tier between those two TEs and whoever is next-closest.

8. Aaron Jones is an every-week top-7 fantasy RB moving forward

I’ll be honest, I wasn’t even expecting Aaron Jones to play this week, given that he barely practiced all week with a hamstring injury and given Minnesotta’s mid-week trade for Cam Akers. But after Jones’ Week 7 usage, I wonder if the Akers trade had more to do with Ty Chandler than Jones.

It always made sense for Jones to dominate usage over Chandler due to talent – Jones leads all RBs (min. 70 carries) in yards after contact per attempt (3.31), while Chandler ranks worst of all RBs (min. 25 carries) by the same stat (1.50) – but it never felt like a lock, because of Jones’ extensive injury history and because Green Bay never seemed to trust him in that role.

But in his first game back, Jones earned a 77% snap share, out-carrying Chandler 14 to 2 and out-targeting him 3 to 0. (Akers didn’t play a snap.) Over his last three full games, Jones is averaging 18.3 carries, 4.7 targets (16.9% target share), 20.7 XFP/G, and 21.4 FPG on a 73.9% snap share. If over the full season, those numbers would rank 5th-, 4th- (2nd-), 1st-, 5th-, and 5th-best.

Given this usage and volume, for a historically, outlierishly hyper-efficient player on one of the most potent offenses in football (with excellent projected gamescript just about every week they don’t play the Lions), I think we have to view Jones as an every-week top-7 fantasy RB moving forward.

9. Joe Mixon is looking like a league-winner.

Joe Mixon has scored at least 26 fantasy points in all 3 full games he’s played this season. In that sample, he’s averaging 26.8 FPG, 20.9 XFP/G, and 3.0 carries per game inside the 10-yard line. Each of those stats would lead all RBs across the full season. He’s maintained a whopping 81.3% backfield XFP share in those contests, which would lead all RBs if over the full season.

Mixon is helped by OC Bobby Slowik’s love of the run game. Even when the Texans should have been upping the pace to chase points on the scoreboard, Slowik has remained stubbornly committed to maintaining a balanced offense. (Houston’s -14.5% PROE last week was the 8th-lowest mark of any team in any week this season.) And Mixon himself seems to be driving a lot of this tendency. The Texans have run the ball 60.6% of the time in the red zone in his full games (3rd-most), compared to just 40.7% of the time in their other four games (23rd-most).

10. Saquon Barkley is a league-winner.

Saquon Barkley played on only 1 of 18 snaps in the fourth quarter of last week’s blowout. Before then, he took his 17 carries for 176 rushing yards and a TD, adding two catches for 11 receiving yards. Only Derrick Henry has a game with more rushing yards this season (199 in Week 4), and it took him all four quarters to do it.

We can make a few nitpicks with Barkley, who is indisputably running hot with 22.0 FPG (RB4) on just 16.6 XFP/G (RB7). A lot of the industry’s preseason concerns about him have proved true — he’s averaging just a 10.5% target share this season (~RB18), or 8.1% (~RB28) in games with A.J. Brown healthy. He received just 50% of his team’s red zone carries in that three-quarter sample (with Jalen Hurts scoring multiple tush push TDs in Week 7), or just 44.9% over the full season.

The counter-argument is that his total (rather than percentage-based) red zone role is great. No team has run the ball in the red zone at a higher rate than the Eagles this season (68.1%), meaning even with Hurts, Barkley still ranks top-5 at the position in red zone carries (22) and in red zone XFP/G (6.4, with only Kyren Williams, Aaron Jones, Kareem Hunt, and Joe Mixon beating him out).

And what he’s lacked in target volume, he’s made up for with big plays and efficiency on the ground. Barkley has 6 carries this season that have gained 30 or more yards, one more than Derrick Henry and twice as many as any other RB. He ranks behind only Henry and Tank Bigsby in YPC (6.09). This will be difficult to keep up (he averages just 3.59 YPC without those big plays), but again, it feels hard to nitpick an explosive player who is succeeding on an offense that’s been the run-heaviest in the league over the past two weeks (-11.7% PROE). Even with a few nitpicky concerns, I’d still consider Barkley a top-5 RB rest-of-season, and he’s undoubtedly one of the best picks you could have made at the end of Round 1. I’ll happily take the “L” here.

11. Chase Brown’s usage just keeps getting better.

Chase Brown out-snapped Zack Moss for the second consecutive game (60.4% to 47.2%) and ran more routes than him for the first time all season. Brown took 100% of the Bengals’ red zone snaps (2 of 2) and received the team’s only carry inside the 20 yard-line. And he continued to be the clear lead on the ground, amassing 15 carries to Moss’s 6.

Brown didn’t break any massive plays in this game, but he’s clearly looked like the more explosive runner all season, averaging 0.29 missed tackles forced/attempt (4th-best among qualifying RBs). I’d expect him to make the most of any additional playing time he wins, considering he ranks 6th-best in fantasy points per snap (0.52). He’s knocking on the door of rest-of-season RB2 status, should he continue cutting into Moss’s work in the receiving game as well.

12. De’Von Achane is a screaming buy-low target.

De’Von Achane has led Miami’s backfield in carries in all five games he’s been fully healthy. He’s received 80% of his backfield’s rush attempts inside the 10-yard line. And he’s averaged a 15.4% target share in those healthy games, 2nd-best on the team and ahead of Jaylen Waddle (14.1%). If I’d told you any of this about Achane’s workload prior to Week 1, you’d have considered him at the 1.01 overall pick.

Only two other RBs have averaged above a 15.4% target share this season; Alvin Kamara and Breece Hall, who rank as the RB5 and RB9 by FPG, respectively. On last year’s Miami offense led by Tua Tagovailoa, a 15.4% target share would have been worth roughly 5.0 targets per game; again, a mark only being hit by Kamara, Hall, and Kenneth Walker (RB2) this season. About half of all league-winning RBs average at least 5.5 targets per game — Achane and the trio mentioned above are the only players for whom that appears realistically within reach this year.

Achane has averaged 18.8 XFP/G across five full games this season. That ranks 2nd-best among RBs this season behind only Kamara, and it’s a +65% boost to his per-game volume compared to last season. He’s underperformed that volume by -3.3 FPG, but we’ve seen him overperform his workload by +6.0 FPG as recently as last season — the offseason thesis laid out below has played out almost perfectly. He just hasn’t remained efficient with Skylar Thompson, Tyler Huntley, and Tim Boyle at QB, which is hard to hold against him.

Yes, a multi-week injury to Raheem Mostert might be inflating Achane’s XFP, but I don’t think it’s by much. Last week, Achane played on 57% of the team’s snaps, earning 15 of 31 carries and all 3 of the team’s targets out of the backfield. Last season, Achane hit 15 carries only twice all year.

In summary — Achane is an ideal buy-low target. If Tua Tagovailoa starts this week (which is looking increasingly more likely), there are maybe only 6 or 7 RBs I’d start over him. But whoever owns him in your league might be viewing him more closely in line with his production (23rd in FPG).

13. Bijan Robinson is back to full-on bell-cow status.

In Week 7, Bijan Robinson earned a season-high 19.2 XFP (RB6), while Tyler Allgeier fell to just 3.5 XFP (his lowest mark since Week 1).

This equated to a 77.7% share of the team’s backfield XFP, significantly better than the 52.6% he earned from Weeks 4-6.

Robinson had been listed on the injury report with shoulder and hamstring ailments leading up to each of his previous three games, so in hindsight, the Falcons’ coaching staff wanting to be conservative with his workload as he healed up seems to be the most likely explanation. (As we’ve been speculating over the last several weeks.) That’s something to keep in mind for DFS purposes if he ever pops up again mid-week, but going forward, I think Robinson is solidly back in the high-end RB1 range.

14. Kenneth Walker: top-3 fantasy RB moving forward, potentially the overall RB1.

Kenneth Walker ended his day with 23.3 fantasy points (RB7 on the week) despite playing on 46.4% of the team’s snaps and running only 7 routes, both easily his lowest marks of the season. He was narrowly out-snapped by Zach Charbonnet but still clearly out-carried (14 to 8) and out-targeted him (2 to 1). Walker also received the backfield’s only two opportunities in the red zone (a carry and a target), each of which he scored on.

Given the clear intention to continue giving Walker the high-value touches and mostly scale back the empty-calorie snaps, the most likely conclusion is that the team was trying to lighten his workload after he was added to the injury report Saturday afternoon with an illness. I’d expect Walker to be back to normal next week — and his “normal” this season has been abnormally awesome. Only Alvin Kamara and Breece Hall are averaging more targets per game (5.2). On the ground, Walker leads all RBs (including Derrick Henry, which is insane) in rushing fantasy points per carry (1.02).

He currently ranks 2nd among all RBs in FPG (22.3), just 0.6 FPG behind Henry. With this elite uber-bell cow usage, an overall RB1 finish is easily within Walker’s range of outcomes.

15. This Kansas City offense is pretty gross for fantasy.

Here’s a sentence I never thought I would utter – Patrick Mahomes is unstartable in fantasy. Over his last 15 games, he averages just 15.2 FPG, with only one game over 20.0 fantasy points.

Since Week 4, when Rashee Rice went down, no Chiefs receiver is averaging more than 14.5 FPG. Travis Kelce leads in XFP/G (with just 12.6), but it was interesting to see TE2 Noah Gray hit a season-high in route share (48%, up from 30%) while also leading the team in catches (4) and yards (66, +47 more than any other Chiefs WR/TE). It’s important to note that Gray’s increase in usage did not come at Kelce’s expense (at least not by route share), but still… the vibes are pretty bad.

This leaves us with *checks notes* Kareem Hunt as the team’s most valuable fantasy asset. Really?

This offense ran through Rice prior to his injury, as evident by his 23.2% XFP market share (top-10 among WRs) through the first three weeks of the season. Since then, Hunt has a 23.8% XFP market share (6th-most among RBs), while no other Chiefs player is above 17.5%.

Hunt has averaged 20.3 XFP/G and 20.5 FPG since Week 5 – both top-5 marks at the position over that stretch. Sure, he’s looked a bit dusty, ranking 31st (of 42 qualifiers) in YPC (4.0), and dead last in explosive run rate (0%), and maybe Clyde Edwards-Helaire (Week 7 healthy scratch) eventually gets up to speed and starts eating into Hunt’s RB1 workload, before Isaih Pacheco ultimately returns some time in mid-to-late November… But as of right now, I think we have to view Hunt as an easy RB2 until something changes. And as a high-end RB2 this week, in a dreamy matchup against the Raiders.

16. Musings on the potential return of Exodia RB Jonathon Brooks

A lot of you have been asking me for my thoughts on our 2024 Exodia RB Jonathon Brooks, who should be making his NFL debut this week.

I’ll be honest. I don’t really have a great read on this situation, but I’m a little more worried than I was several weeks ago. Chuba Hubbard has looked way better than I ever expected.

Since Week 3, Hubbard leads all RBs in touches (105), with his usage continuing to expand – he ranks 3rd in snap share over the last two weeks (82.9%), up from 63.2% (18th). Since Week 3, he ranks top-7 in both FPG (19.0) and XFP/G (16.9).

Simply put, I worry he’s looked too good; too good for the team to have any sense of urgency in getting Brooks on the field, and too good for Brooks to earn true bell cow usage.

That’s my concern, but I don’t have much confidence in this assessment. And Carolina’s 1-6 record muddies the equation further. Would Dave Canales rather redshirt his highly-drafted rookie coming off of a serious injury? Or would he rather get him extended playing time despite Hubbard’s success so that he’s fully up to speed with full mastery over the playbook by 2025?

We can also ask whether Hubbard has been as good as the numbers imply. Although Hubbard ranks 4th-best in YPC since Andy Dalton took over (5.28), one could argue he’s simply benefited from an elite offensive line, as he ranks 4th-worst of 42-qualifying RBs in missed tackles forced per attempt and ranks just 26th in yards after contact per attempt (2.44). If that’s the case, then Brooks really could be the Exodia I promised him to be. Because Hubbard has already proven – just as Rachaad White (another mediocre talent) did last year – that this Dave Canales RB1 role is one of the most valuable in all of fantasy.

In short, the league-winning upside is there. We hope he can take over this uber-valuable role sometime before your fantasy playoffs start. But he’s not someone I’d have in my starting lineup until we know the usage will be there.

Quarterbacks

• If Jayden Daniels were to miss any time, I think Marcus Mariota would be an elite streaming option. Mariota finished Week 7 ranking top-5 in FP/DB (0.75), and in 2022, his last full season as a starter, he ranked 6th-best in FP/DB (0.59). Give OC Kliff Kingsbury his flowers; this offense has been historically great.

• With each passing week I am growing increasingly more excited about Patriots rookie Drake Maye. He’s only started two games, and he already has 3 more passing touchdowns than Jacoby Brissett had through 5 starts. He’s cleared 20.0 fantasy points in both starts. For perspective, Patrick Mahomes has cleared 20.0 fantasy points just once over his last 15 games. He has an absolute cannon for an arm, averaging 2.5 explosives (passes gaining 30-plus yards) per game, while no other QB in football is over 2.0. And he’s seriously underrated as a runner. Granted, Jacksonville was a best-possible matchup, and this is still a horrible environment for the rookie – New England’s receivers rank (collectively) bottom-3 in ASS, and New England’s offensive line ranks 2nd-worst in pressure rate over expectation allowed (+9.9%) – but I’m open to the idea that Maye could be a sort of rich man’s 2022 Daniel Jones, ultimately finishing as a low-end QB1.

• Reminder: The Bears and Cowboys were on bye last week, but we discussed Dak Prescott and Caleb Williams at length in last week’s article. (We also discussed D’Andre Swift, Rico Dowdle, CeeDee Lamb, Jake Ferguson, Cole Kmet, etc.)

Running Backs

• I don’t know how much this matters – especially with rookie RB MarShawn Lloyd nearing his return – but Josh Jacobs saw a massive uptick in usage last week, handling a season-high 86% share of the backfield XFP, up from 65%. But he still only earned 14.6 XFP (RB11), and averages just 12.8 XFP/G (RB23) since Week 3. He’s only a low-end RB2 to me this week.

• Tony Pollard was the bell cow we expected without Tyjae Spears. He played on 88.1% of the snaps (2nd-highest behind only Kyren Williams this past week) despite briefly leaving the game after taking a scary hit, ending up with an 81.5% backfield XFP share. He wasn’t able to convert on either of his red zone carries and finished the day with a disappointing 8.5 fantasy points, but we now know the volume will be there whenever Spears misses. It sounds like Spears should return in Week 8. If so, I’d view Pollard as just a fringe RB2 in a difficult matchup against the Lions.

• Alvin Kamara did not play much in the 4th quarter of a blowout, but through three quarters, he saw a 26.1% target share from Spencer Rattler, which would have been the highest single-game mark by any RB this season. His snap share and other peripherals were similar to previous weeks with the blowout context applied. He still leads all RBs with 19.4 XFP/G this season, thanks mainly to his unreal target volume. (He has a 20.0% target share, while only one other RB is over 14.0%.) Even if his XFP/G will start to fall as the Saints continue to struggle to get into the red zone (the team ran only one play inside the 20-yard line all night), the target volume should remain incredible with Rashid Shaheed out for the season. I’d still treat Kamara as a top-5 RB rest-of-season, with Derek Carr potentially returning as soon as Week 9.

• Tank Bigsby smashed the Patriots for 23.8 fantasy points on 22.5 XFP (2nd-most among RBs this week), seeing easily his highest snap share (66.7%) and route share (28.6%) of the season with Travis Etienne out. However, he still has just two targets all year, and this was an ideal game script for him — remember, D’Ernest Johnson out-snapped him 55.0% to 26.7% with Etienne banged up in a Week 6 game the team trailed the whole day. A glance at the Jaguars’ upcoming schedule (vs. GB, @ PHI, vs. MIN, @ DET, @ HOU) makes Bigsby a logical sell-high, as the team is unlikely to be leading very much in any of those games. And, keep in mind, that’s before HC Doug Pederson balked at the idea of Bigsby earning a larger role once Etienne returns.

• Even with Devin Singletary back, Tyrone Tracy played on 67.3% of the Giants’ snaps and ran a 62.5% route share (4th-best among RBs on the week). (Shoutout to Art Stapleton for nailing his prediction on how this committee would look once Singletary returned.) This didn’t amount to very many fantasy points because the Giants trailed the entire game and the offense was largely inept with Daniel Jones getting sacked 7 times and throwing for under 100 yards before being benched in the fourth quarter. But still, now the apparent leader of this committee, I’d treat Tracy as a borderline RB2 in weeks we expect this offense to be semi-functional — which may not include Week 8 against a Steelers defense that just gave Aaron Rodgers plenty of trouble and ranks bottom-3 in rushing YPG allowed (81.0).

• Excluding the three quarters Brian Robinson failed to register a snap (2 due to injury, 1 due to the game being a 37-point blowout), he’s averaging 16.2 carries, 1.9 targets, 15.1 XFP (~RB15), and 17.2 fantasy points per four full quarters (~RB9) on a 62% snap share. Given how potent this offense is, ranking 6th-best in EPA per drive (by any offense through the first 7 weeks of a season since at least 2000), I don’t see why we shouldn’t be viewing Robinson as a mid-range RB2 or better every week moving forward.

• It sounds like we’ll only be getting one more Jordan Mason game before Christian McCaffrey returns in Week 10, but this was fun while it lasted. To account for him missing all but one play in the second half of Week 6, Mason is averaging 15.7 XFP (~RB15) and 15.7 fantasy points per four quarters (~RB16). I’d have him ranked right around there this week, favored by 4.5 points up against a Cowboys defense that is giving up the 3rd-most FPG to opposing RBs (27.6).

• James Cook owners might have trouble brewing with Ray Davis continuing to look really freaking good. Through the first five weeks of the season, Cook and Davis shared the backfield 75% to 25% as measured by XFP. But then Cook sat out in Week 6, and Davis went nuclear, leading the team in both rushing and receiving yards. Last week, Davis again led the team in rushing yards (despite receiving 7 fewer carries than Cook) and out-targeted Cook 1 to 0. Keep in mind, Davis barely practiced all week with a calf injury. I wouldn’t be surprised if this were closer to a 50/50 split in Week 8.

• Nick Chubb was a lot more heavily utilized in his debut than I expected. Although he only played on 35% of the team’s snaps, he dominated the backfield by XFP (75%). He earned 11 of 16 carries and 2 of 3 targets out of the backfield, equating to 16.5 XFP (9th-most on the week). Of course, he wasn’t all that effective (2.0 YPC), which was always the concern with Chubb coming off of a devastating injury (he had multiple surgeries to repair his medial capsule, meniscus, MCL, and ACL). Fantasy Points injury expert Dr. Edwin Porras thinks Chubb is unlikely to return to even 80% of his typical effectiveness or efficiency at any point this season. But even if that’s the case, he could still be a valuable fantasy asset on pure volume alone. And then there’s the upside he offers in case the injury experts are wrong. Remember, Chubb was already an all-time outlier, and we’ve already seen him beat the odds once before – coming off of another devastating injury suffered in October of 2015 (when he tore everything except his ACL and MCL in his left knee), Chubb turned 224 carries into 1,130 rushing yards (5.0 YPC) in 2016.

• Javonte Williams averaged 6.3 YPC and scored 26.1 fantasy points last week, with both marks representing his best single-game performance since his rookie season. But I don’t think we need to go too deep into the weeds here. I think we know who Williams is at this point, which is to say he’s a highly gamescript-sensitive fringe-RB2. Over the last two seasons, he averages 8.9 FPG in losses (~RB43), 13.2 FPG in wins (~RB23), and 16.1 FPG in wins by 8 or more points (~RB12).

• During the broadcast of the Raiders/Rams game, CBS color commentator Trent Green said that HC Sean McVay told him he wanted to increase Blake Corum’s participation coming out of the bye, giving Corum 1 series to every Kyren Williams’ 2. We did see that to start the game: Williams saw every snap on the team’s first two drives, until Corum started and played on two-thirds of the snaps on the team’s third drive. But from that point on, Williams out-snapped Corum 34 to 1… So, yeah, Williams still looks like a highest-end bell cow, although a uniquely gamescript-sensitive one (he ranks ahead of only Jordan Mason in TPRR). He led all RBs last week in snap share (90.4%), turning 21 carries and zero targets into 19.6 fantasy points. I’ll be ranking Williams as a low-end RB1 this week in a tough matchup against the Vikings, but if we do eventually see a week where Corum forces a 66/33 committee, that may be your cue to try to sell high.

• In Zamir White’s first game back from injury, Alexander Mattison maintained a 70.7% snap share (8th-most on the week), an 88.5% backfield carry share, and received three-of-four backfield targets and the only red zone touch. Since White’s initial injury, Mattison is averaging 18.3 XFP/G (would rank RB3 this season) but just 14.3 FPG — which is somewhat to be expected given Mattison’s history of inefficiency and this Raiders offense. Still, in this role, I’d treat Mattison as a high-end RB3 most weeks, but probably as a low-end RB3 this week against the Chiefs.

• J.K. Dobbins started off the season white hot, hitting 130 rushing yards in back-to-back games and averaging 9.85 YPC over this stretch. Dobbins’ efficiency has greatly diminished since then, but his usage has greatly improved. Over the last two weeks, he ranks 7th in snap share (71.0%), 1st in carries (39), and 14th in XFP/G (14.7). However, his route participation has fallen to just 35.4% (31st) with the introduction of Kimani Vidal to the backfield, suggesting his ceiling is likely capped at that of an RB2.

• After a down week in terms of usage in Week 6 (when the Cardinals trailed most of the game and he was banged up), James Conner bounced back to a season-high 85.5% snap share and received all but one backfield touch in Week 7, producing a team-high 152 all-purpose yards. Perhaps the most encouraging part of this week for Conner was his 69% route participation, considering he’d never exceeded 50% in any prior game this season. Until now, he’s been a game script-sensitive RB on a team that’s frequently played from behind, but if the team has decided to move away from Emari Demercado (season-low 3.4% route participation), Conner could be significantly more useful down the stretch.

• Derrick Henry leads all of fantasy football in WAR, ranking behind only his QB in total fantasy points. Even more impressively, he’s done this while playing on just 55.5% of the Ravens’ snaps (RB27) and with only 14.2 XFP/G (RB19). With most other players, this would be a concern. But Henry has proven by now he is more than capable of maintaining outlierish hyper-efficiency over a full season, especially when his offensive line is providing a league-high 3.39 adjusted yards before contact per attempt (nearly 3X that of the Titans in any of Henry’s last 3 seasons there), while Henry himself leads the league in yards after contact (435), yards per carry (6.51), and explosive runs (12). He’s still the most game script-sensitive player in the league, but that works in his favor more often than not on a Ravens team that is favored in every look-ahead line for the rest of the season. It’s hard to expect him to maintain his league-leading +8.7 FPOE, but everything we’ve seen so far makes it impossible to consider him any less than a top-3 RB rest-of-season.

• Ahead of Week 7, Bucs HC Todd Bowles indicated the team would take a hot-hand approach with the backfield, and that whoever was the more effective back early in the game would get the most playing time. Both Bucky Irving and Rachaad White played on the first two drives, with Sean Tucker getting a chance on the third, but a trailing game script in which the Buccaneers lost their top-two pass catchers was always likely to lead to White getting the most snaps (47.4%) and XFP (15.2) of the group. He ultimately scored 29.1 fantasy points (RB2 overall on the week) and ranked 2nd on the team in receiving yards (71) behind Cade Otton. Irving received all three carries inside the 10-yard line and ran only three fewer routes than White, suggesting he’ll continue to keep this backfield close and will likely be the preferred fantasy option in positive game scripts, but given the target vacuum, it’s hard not to consider White’s stock on the rise from a few weeks ago — his 1.74 YPRR ranks top-12 at the position, and he’s always been a much better receiver than runner.

Wide Receivers

• Tee Higgins has eclipsed Ja’Marr Chase in first-read target share in 4 straight games, while also leading all players over this stretch (42.1%). The good news is Chase remains ridiculously hyper-efficient, and Joe Burrow is mostly neglecting all other receivers. (Higgins and Chase have a combined 74% first-read target share over their last 3 games.) Since Higgins returned to a full workload in Week 4, Chase ranks 3rd in FPG (22.9), and Higgins ranks 9th (19.3).

• There’s a very good chance we’ll be getting Cooper Kupp back this week. Don’t forget, the last time we saw him on the field, he scored 32.0 fantasy points on 21 targets (the 2nd-most by any player in any game since 2016). Even if he’s not yet 100% healthy, you have no other choice but to start him as a mid-range WR1… If any Rams WR retains value following Cooper Kupp’s return, I’d want to be betting on Tutu Atwell. He’s led the team in receiving yards or target share in 4 of 4 games without Kupp. Last week, he led the team in route share (91.7%), and also led all players at all positions in target share (39.1%). Ever so quietly, he ranks 7th-best of 118 qualifying WRs in YPRR (2.63).

• If we spotted Terry McLaurin just 2 additional receiving yards in last week’s game, then he’d be averaging 20.2 DK FPG since Week 3 (WR7) with a low of just 17.4 DK fantasy points over this stretch. That’s great, but it does feel a little unsustainable – over this stretch, he ranks just 21st in both first-read target share (29.2%) and XFP/G (14.1).

• Diontae Johnson flopped last week, scoring 2.7 fantasy points on a measly 3 targets. We could blame this on Johnson’s multiple injuries (ribs, ankle, hamstring) or on the offense just fully imploding. Johnson has recorded double-digit targets and scored at least 19.5 fantasy points in the 3 games Andy Dalton started and wasn’t benched by the end of the game. In the other two games, Johnson averaged just 4.3 FPG. So, clearly, there’s some inherent volatility here, where the offense could just totally implode any week (like it did in Weeks 5 and 7), but I still like Johnson as an every-week mid-range WR2. Well, okay, maybe this week in a worst-possible matchup against the Broncos, he’s just a mid-range WR3.

• A.J. Brown has a 49.4% receiving yards market share in his active games this year. The next-closest season to that mark in the Fantasy Points Data era was Tyreek Hill’s 2023 (40.2%). Brown ranks top-5 in threat rate (37.1%) and leads all WRs in FPG this season (22.1), finishing as the weekly WR7, WR3, and WR6 overall. He’s also completely destroyed DeVonta Smith’s fantasy utility — Smith ranks top-10 in YPG (77.5) and FPG (17.8) in games without Brown this year but outside the top 40 in each category in three games with him (48.7 YPG, 10.5 FPG). It’s a small sample, but there’s an argument to be made Brown should be viewed as the overall WR1 in fantasy moving forward.

• Malik Nabers flopped in a game Daniel Jones couldn’t clear 100 passing yards. Like with Johnson, this is what happens when an offense just fully implodes. And that’s something the Giants are going to be apt to do, perhaps especially now with star LT Andrew Thomas out for the year. Even so, the elite utilization was still there, just as it’s been all year – he leads all players in first-read target share by a mile (46.5% vs. next-closest’s 38.4%), ranks 1st in XFP/G (21.0), and ranks behind only Nico Collins in FPG (19.9). I’d still be starting him as a top-3 fantasy WR this week. You’re just going to have to weather these dud games as they come.

• Amon-Ra St. Brown led all WRs in fantasy points last week (25.2), in an outlierishly down week for WR scoring. After griping about ARSB’s XFP market share, he’s back up to 20.6% (WR15). Granted, that’s still off from his 2023 numbers – 23.1% (WR8) – but I expect him to be back around there over the team’s next two games, while Jameson Williams serves out his suspension. I’ll be starting him as a mid-range WR1 this week, despite the tough matchup against the Titans.

• Justin Jefferson leads all WRs in XFP/RR (0.57) and ranks top-3 (behind two WRs now on I.R.) in FP/RR (0.71). The only surprising thing about this is that he ranks only 5th in FPG (19.9). It seems he’s being held back by Minnesota’s elite defense. Minnesota ranks bottom-5 in dropbacks per game (32.7), after ranking top-5 in the last two seasons (42.5).

• We have a three-game sample in which each of the Packers’ top-4 WRs have played full games with Jordan Love this season. Jayden Reed easily leads the group in FPG over that span (21.1) but has seen just a 14.8% target share — less than both Romeo Doubs (20.5%) and Dontayvion Wicks (18.0%), despite Wicks running only 55.8% of the routes in those games. Reed dropped what would have been a 45-yard catch just before halftime, and will certainly have better games than this — he’s still averaging 18.3 FPG with Jordan Love this season, well above his 12.2 XFP/G — but we have to reckon with the fact that this is not a high-volume role, and that Reed is likely not going to dominate targets with the rest of Green Bay’s receivers healthy. I’m still treating him as a top-16 WR, but I’m less bullish now than I was a few weeks ago. Christian Watson notably has just 8 targets across this three-game sample and is very droppable, with Wicks cutting more and more into his role. Doubs has averaged 71.5 receiving YPG and 18.7 FPG in the two games since his return from suspension; the reports of his skipping practice due to being unhappy with his role were denied, but I could buy a squeaky-wheel narrative here; his TPRR has increased from 19% to 25% since then.

• None of the Texans’ WRs were very productive in a game C.J. Stroud attempted only 21 passes and was pressured on 62.1% of his dropbacks, the highest rate any QB has seen this season. Stefon Diggs led the way with a 36.4% first-read target share, followed by Tank Dell’s 27.3%. Dell’s route share fell to 79.3% after seeing above a 90% route share in his two previous career games without Nico Collins. He saw two targets in the end zone in the 1st quarter (with one dropped and the other wiped away by a penalty) but ultimately finished the day with zero catches on 12.9 XFP. It’s hard not to get down on this entire offense after a performance like this one (and given how run-heavy they’ve been with a healthy Joe Mixon, as alluded to earlier), but this week’s game against the Colts (who rank 2nd-lowest in the NFL with just a 25.0% pressure rate this year) provides a logical bounce-back spot.

• If we spotted D.K. Metcalf just one additional receiving yard (which seems fair, because he didn’t see a snap in the fourth quarter of last week’s game due to injury), then he would have hit 100 receiving yards in 4 of his last 6 games. He’s still a major positive regression candidate, however, ranking 7th in YPG (81.1) and 5th in XFP/G (17.9) but just 17th in FPG (15.4). He ranks 7th in end zone targets (6), but has caught only one of those for a touchdown. He also leads the league in deep targets (20), with +42.9% more than the next-closest receiver. Unfortunately, he’s yet another WR with a great role who now appears likely to miss time.

• It was weird to see Kyle Pitts go off, instead of Drake London and Darnell Mooney, in a game in which Seattle was down both starting perimeter CBs. But London still looks like an easy high-end WR1 for fantasy. Since Week 2, he ranks 1st in first-read targets (57), 2nd in XFP, and 2nd in fantasy points. Over the same stretch, Mooney – more shockingly – looks like a fantasy WR1 as well, ranking 10th in targets (47), 8th in XFP, and 11th in fantasy points. This week, in a cushy matchup against the Buccaneers, I like London as a top-6 WR, and Mooney as a low-end WR2.

• Brian Thomas Jr. ranks top-5 among all WRs in both receiving yards (513) and YPRR (2.73). Only seven rookie WRs since 2010 have averaged more than Thomas’s 15.5 FPG — Odell Beckham, Malik Nabers, Ja’Marr Chase, Puka Nacua, Justin Jefferson, Michael Thomas, and Mike Evans. Maybe it’s a hot take, but I’m already ranking him above Marvin Harrison Jr. in dynasty.

• Watch out for Broncos rookie Troy Franklin, who eclipsed a 60% route share for the second straight week, and led the team in targets (6), catches (5), and yards (50). Franklin was a highly exciting college prospect – he averaged 3.19 YPRR on all perimeter routes last season, a feat no other WR from the 2024 class ever accomplished. Keep in mind that he did this with Bo Nix as his starting QB, so we already know they have good chemistry. Although Franklin fell to Round 5 in the Draft, Denver told us they had a Round 2 grade on him.

• It’s probably worth re-reading what I wrote about Jakobi Meyers last week. Brock Bowers has stolen all of the attention in his absence, but I see easy PPR cheat-code upside for Meyers once he returns to the field.

• Similarly to Meyers, Demario Douglas looks extremely underrated. He was in and out of last week’s game due to injury (40.7% snap share). Hunter Henry stepped up in his absence, but Douglas has earned a 40.5% target share this year when both he and Drake Maye have been on the field. Given New England’s track record with slot WRs, and with Maye looking as good as he has, I think Douglas absolutely has every-week-starter upside.

• Although the production wasn’t there, Xavier Worthy easily led all Chiefs WRs in targets (8) and XFP (16.2), both career-highs. None of the deep shots connected (with Mahomes overthrowing him on a potential TD, and Worthy tripping and falling on another, leading to an interception), so this was on the low end of weekly outcomes, but Worthy’s route usage is still problematic regardless. He’s run a vertically-breaking route 47.7% of the time this season (11th-most), which are among the least valuable for fantasy purposes. For comparison, Rashee Rice and JuJu Smith-Schuster (who missed most of this game with a hamstring injury) each rank top-8 in horizontally breaking plus shallow/underneath routes. It’s pretty clear Worthy is not a candidate for the “Rashee Rice role,” and his brutal per-route efficiency (his 1.29 YPRR ranks 62nd) seems likely to continue to reflect that.

• In three games with Joe Flacco this season, Josh Downs averages a 26.5% target share (would rank ~WR10 this year), 10.0 targets per game (~WR3), and 19.2 FPG (~WR7). In two games with Anthony Richardson, that falls to an 18.2% target share (~WR41), 4.0 targets per game (~WR72), and 3.3 FPG (~WR113). He and every other receiver on this Colts offense are unstartable until Anthony Richardson either improves or gets benched, outside of galaxy-brain DFS stacks using Alec Pierce, who ranks behind only DK Metcalf this season with 14 deep targets. The ultra-deep shot is just about the only thing Richardson does well (or, rather, isn’t bottom-5 in the league at). And the difference between Flacco and Richardson (for Downs and Michael Pittman) is – no exaggeration – the difference between a top-3 passing environment and the worst passing environment in the NFL.

• George Pickens ranks top-6 in YPRR (2.66) and 7th in first-read target share (35.3%) this season, and produced 111 yards and 22.1 fantasy points on 9 targets in his first game with Russell Wilson. His 40% first-read target share was double that of any other Steelers receiver, and his 151 air yards trailed only DK Metcalf in Week 7. Wilson recorded only two sacks plus scrambles, compared to Fields averaging 5.8 such plays per game this season. Every pass attempt not removed from this offense counts here.

• Rashod Bateman ranks top-3 in ASS this season (0.216) and averages 83.3 receiving YPG and 16.3 FPG over his last three games. Zay Flowers saw just one target Monday night, but still ranks top-20 in first-read target share (29.3%) and is tied with Jayden Reed for the most designed targets in the league this season (14). Both players can have ceiling games when Lamar Jackson plays this well, as he leads the league in both passer rating (118.0) and adjusted net yards per attempt (9.48).

Tight Ends

• Shoutout to me, who hyped up Jonnu Smith in this space last week before hearing OC Frank Smith do the same later in the week. Smith said on Wednesday before the game – "When [Jonnu Smith] gets the ball in his hands, he's very effective down the field. That was something we were looking at, especially during the bye week." We saw that play out in Week 7, but never to the degree that I had expected. Smith caught 7 of 7 targets for 96 yards and a score, equating to 22.6 fantasy points. For comparison, Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle combined for just 4.4 total fantasy points. I think this is largely irrelevant with Tua Tagovailoa expected back this week – (Tyreek Hill should go back to alpha status) – but I couldn’t resist the urge to pat myself on the back. But, if Tyler Huntley starts or in any game he’s starting, I’d rank Smith as a low-end TE1; Huntley has targeted TEs at the highest rate of any starting QB since 2021 (31%).

• Sam LaPorta ranks behind Johnny Mundt, Chig Okonkwo, and Greg Dulcich (among others) with his 8.4% target share this season. He’s running a worse route share (66.2%, TE17) than he did as a rookie (70.8%). His red zone role has completely disappeared as well, having seen just 2 targets there all season (to Amon-Ra St. Brown’s 9, Jahmyr Gibbs’ 6, Jameson Williams’ 5, etc.) He’s seen just two total targets over the past two weeks, and ranks as just the TE34 by XFP/G this season (4.8). A potential Jameson Williams suspension could help in the short term, but I’m not sure LaPorta should rank inside the top-10 of our rest-of-season TE rankings.

• With Tommy Tremble out (concussion) over the last three weeks, Ja’Tavion Sanders has seen 5 or more targets in three straight games, with 6.5 targets and 55.0 receiving YPG over his last two games. In a week where nothing went right for Carolina’s passing game, Sanders was the lone bright spot. His 6 targets were twice as much as any other Panther, and he caught all 6 for 61 yards, comprising 69% of Carolina’s total passing yards on the day. Assuming Tremble sits out again this week, Sanders is a tremendous DFS value this week, priced as just the TE24 ($3,100).

• Hunter Henry earned an 81.0% route share last week (up from 66.7% over the previous four weeks), and his 9 targets were 4 more than any other New England receiver. He caught 8 of those 9 targets for 92 yards, putting him alongside Brock Bowers as the only other TE to eclipse 90 receiving yards multiple times this season. Henry was always one of the more underrated TEs for DFS, as he’s hit 16.5 DK fantasy points 6 times since the start of last season, with only George Kittle offering more such games over this span. But now, with the rookie QB looking as good as he has, I could see Henry offering more consistency and stringing together a low-end TE1 finish for season-long leagues.

• Noah Fant has hit 60 receiving yards in back-to-back games (something Jaxon Smith-Njigba has never done in his NFL career), while also leading all Seattle receivers in catches over this stretch (10). Of course, he ranks a distant 4th in targets over this span (10), and his route share fell back down to 51.5% last week. But given his hyper-efficiency (especially his hyper-efficiency relative to JSN working in the same area of the field), I wouldn’t be surprised if he starts to earn more playing time and more targets moving forward.

• Okay, now I’m actually starting to get excited about Kyle Pitts, who has hit 65 receiving yards in three straight games. After earning a season-high 16.7% target share in Week 6, Pitts blew well past that mark with a team-high 25.0% target share. (He did this in a game Seattle was without their two starting perimeter CBs, which should theoretically benefit Drake London and Darnell Mooney above Pitts.) Best of all, Pitts’ route share has hit a new season-high in three straight games, all the way up to 87.2% last week (up from 69.4% across the first six weeks).

• Will Dissly hauled in eight catches on 11 targets for 81 yards Monday Night, on a season-high 72.7% route share that ranked above Josh Palmer. He took advantage of Hayden Hurst’s absence and would be a strong punt play against the Saints in Week 8 at only $3,000 on DraftKings, should Hurst remain out.

• Lucas Krull is a vaguely viable DFS punt this week, priced at just $2,700 on DraftKings. His route share jumped to 62.2% over the last two weeks (up from 15.5%), and he ranks 2nd on the team in targets over this span (8). He also gets a top-5 matchup against the Panthers.

• Trey McBride has led his team in targets in each of his last three games, easily leading all TEs in target share (25.3%) and route participation (81.9%) this season. It just isn’t translating to fantasy production because this Cardinals’ passing offense is struggling — McBride has just one end zone target and has yet to score this season. When the Cardinals do sustain a drive, they become very run-heavy (58.0%, 4th-highest) in the red zone — only the Saints have dropped back fewer times inside the 20-yard line this year. McBride still ranks as a top-5 TE by XFP (11.7) and FPG (10.9), but he clearly lacks the weekly and rest-of-season upside of players like George Kittle and Brock Bowers.

• Cade Otton is averaging 7.0 targets (TE6) and 51.6 receiving YPG (TE10) since Week 3, and led the Buccaneers in first-read target share (24.1%) and receiving yards (100) on a night Mike Evans re-aggravated his hamstring injury and Chris Godwin was lost for the season. Otton ranks 3rd among TEs in routes (198) and 4th in targets (39). He’s never been an efficient player (averaging just 1.33 YPRR this season, 23rd among TEs), but I’m viewing him as a volume-based low-end TE1 this week and beyond.

• Mark Andrews scored twice on Monday night and has now (hilariously) outscored Dalton Kincaid on the season, but his usage didn’t really change, seeing just 44.4% route participation (his 3rd-lowest of the year). Isaiah Likely has run more routes than Andrews in four of their last five games. Andrews ranks as just the TE18 by PPR points per game, or the TE27 by XFP/G. I still don’t view him as particularly startable until the usage picks up, but perhaps this “breakout” of sorts could be the spark needed for that to happen.

DraftKings XFP Values

1. Garrett Wilson, WR (3.1X)

2. D.K. Metcalf, WR (2.8X)

3. Kareem Hunt, RB (2.7X)

4. Nick Chubb, RB (2.7X)

5. De’Von Achane, RB (2.6X)

6. Cade Otton, TE (2.6X)

7. D’Andre Swift, RB (2.6X)

8. Alvin Kamara, RB (2.6X)

9. Amari Cooper, WR (2.6X)

10. Diontae Johnson, WR (2.5X)

11. David Njoku, TE (2.5X)

12. Tee Higgins, WR (2.5X)

XFP per Team Play

1. Cooper Kupp, WR (0.36)

2. Isiah Pacheco, RB (0.33)

3. Malik Nabers, WR (0.33)

4. Garrett Wilson, WR (0.32)

5. Justin Jefferson, WR (0.32)

6. Alvin Kamara, RB (0.30)

7. Jonathan Taylor, RB 90.29)

8. Breece Hall, RB (0.28)

9. Kyren Williams, RB (0.28)

10. Joe Mixon, RB (0.27)

11. Tee Higgins, WR (0.27)

12. Diontae Johnson, WR (0.27)