2024 NFL Week 9 Advanced Matchups

Welcome to Advanced Matchups!

Using the Fantasy Points Data Suite, I’ll be digging into coverage shells, blitz rates, individual matchups, and more every week throughout the season.

This column is mostly geared toward giving you an edge in large-field main slate tournaments on DraftKings, but I’ll also recommend player props so you can easily take advantage of my findings. This article’s props are 39-33 on the season!

Matchups To Target

A.J. Brown vs. the Jaguars’ Deep Funnel and Man-Heavy Defense

$8,100 (WR3), 7% Projected Ownership

If you’ve been paying any attention to other content on Fantasy Points this week, you probably knew this one was coming. Let’s get it out of the way first.

The Jaguars have allowed the most receiving yards per game on throws traveling 20 or more yards downfield (78.9). They’ve also allowed the 3rd-most receiving YPG (120.8) and the 2nd-most schedule-adjusted FPG (+6.5) to opposing outside WRs. Any perimeter WR going up against this secondary is a big play waiting to happen.

The Eagles have been insanely run-heavy over the past three weeks, averaging a -12.0% pass rate over expectation (PROE). However, the Jaguars are a top-5 pass funnel (+3.5% PROE allowed), which should encourage more volume through the air. But even if it doesn’t, as Joe Dolan pointed out, this offense is sufficiently condensed to the point Brown can post a massive fantasy score even if Hurts throws the ball fewer than 20 times.

The Jaguars play man coverage at the league’s 2nd-highest rate (43.0%) and have done so at least 40% of the time in six of eight games. Since the start of last season, A.J. Brown has seen a +63.1% boost to his FP/RR, a +42.4% boost to his YPRR, and a +47.7% boost to his TPRR against man coverage compared to against zone. Brown is averaging an absurd 5.35 YPRR (the most in the NFL) and has commanded a totally unhinged 50% first-read target share against man coverage this season.

Devonta Smith, meanwhile, benefits significantly less from man coverage, seeing a +13.1% TPRR boost but a -14.7% YPRR reduction against it since the start of last season. He’s also a strong play given the on-paper matchup, but I likely won’t feel the need to get away from Brown even if he were to look significantly chalkier as the weekend approaches.

Recommended Prop: A.J. Brown over 77.5 receiving yards (BetMGM, -120)

Ladd McConkey vs. the Browns’ Pass Rush and Man-Heavy Defense

$5,600 (WR28), 16% Projected Ownership

Ladd McConkey has been unbelievable on a per-route basis, ranking top-16 in FP/RR (0.52), tied with fellow rookie Malik Nabers (implying McConkey would also rank top-7 in FPG if the Chargers dropped back as often as the Giants). But his volume troubles are starting to turn around: the Chargers rank 5th in PROE over the last two weeks (+5.7%), up from a would-be league-low -7.2%. And as Jake Tribbey argues here, the presence of Jameis Winston on the other side of this matchup greatly improves the chances of this game to shoot out.

And we couldn’t possibly ask for a better schematic matchup. The Browns play man coverage at the 3rd-highest rate (41.3%) and have done so at least 30% of the time in seven of eight games. McConkey averages an insane 4.18 YPRR against man coverage this season, which ranks behind only Justin Jefferson (and A.J. Brown if he’d qualified). That constitutes a +260% boost to his YPRR compared to against zone coverage. McConkey’s 0.88 FP/RR against man coverage also ranks 2nd-best.

The Chargers have the worst pass grade in our line matchups tool this week, as the Browns have generated by far the league’s highest pressure rate (45.0%). However, pressure has worked in McConkey’s favor this season; he averages a 55.6% first-read target share when Justin Herbert is pressured (ranks 2nd behind only A.J. Brown). That compares to just a 22.1% first-read target share when Herbert is kept clean.

Furthermore, McConkey’s 2.20 YPRR on pressured dropbacks ranks top-5, while his 0.63 pressured FP/RR ranks top-3 behind only A.J. Brown and George Kittle. In contrast, Will Dissly (who is suddenly McConkey’s biggest target competition) sees a -45.6% reduction to his YPRR on pressured dropbacks since the start of last season.

Finally, I have to mention that the Browns have allowed the 4th-most receiving YPG (56.0) and the 2nd-most targets (41) on the deep ball this season. McConkey has begun to see more downfield usage (leading the team with a 32.4% air yards share last week), so big-play potential arguably exists for him as well this week. I have a ton of conviction here.

Recommended Prop: Ladd McConkey over 50.5 receiving yards (BetMGM, -110)

De’Von Achane vs. the Bills’ Backfield/Slot-Funnel Defense

$6,700 (RB12), 13% Projected Ownership

The Bills have allowed the 3rd-most schedule-adjusted FPG to opposing RBs through the air (+5.1) as well as the most receiving YPG (50.4) and the highest target share (21.6%) to opposing backfields. Of course, only about 46% of Achane’s receiving production comes from the backfield; he’s lined up in the slot on just over 25% of his routes (2nd-most among RBs). But that works out nearly as well; the Bills allow the 6th-highest target share to the slot (37.1%).

It doesn’t seem to have sunk in around the industry just how incredible Achane’s receiving role has been this year. He has at least a 17% target share and 50 receiving yards in all three games Tua Tagovailoa has started — for comparison, a 17% target share would rank 2nd at the position behind only Alvin Kamara, while 50.0 receiving YPG would lead all RBs. Achane has also out-targeted Jaylen Waddle in all three of those games. Thanks to effectively operating as the team’s WR2, he averages 21.6 XFP/G and 26.4 FPG within that sample — over the full year, both marks would lead all RBs.

Achane has a positive rushing matchup as well; the Bills have allowed the 5th-most adjusted yards before contact per attempt (2.48), while the Dolphins’ offensive line has generated the 10th-most (2.17). The Dolphins have the 4th-best rush grade in our line matchups tool.

I’m a bit perplexed that Achane projects for such reasonable ownership around the industry. As we argued in the Everything Report, all it would take for Achane to post a “bury you” score in this role would be for him to receive a goal-line carry or two, work that had been split between him and Raheem Mostert prior to last week. I’ll be all over him on the main slate.

Recommended Prop: De’Von Achane over 33.5 receiving yards (FanDuel, -114). I also want to note that our subscriber Discord got great prices on Achane receiving yardage ladders earlier in the week.

Chris Olave vs. the Panthers’ Perimeter Funnel and Single-High-Heavy Defense

$6,100 (WR20), 14% Projected Ownership

Chris Olave just commanded a whopping 40.6% first-read target share in his first game without Rashid Shaheed and is expected to get Derek Carr back this week. He welcomes an excellent on-paper matchup: the Panthers have allowed the 5th-most receiving YPG (116.9) and the 4th-most schedule-adjusted FPG (+4.1) to opposing outside WRs.

The Panthers play single-high at the 2nd-highest rate in the NFL (69.2%). And they do it nearly every week; they’ve played single-high at least 59% of the time in seven of eight games. Since the start of last season, Olave has been +77.3% more efficient by YPRR and commanded volume at a +40.5% higher rate by TPRR against single-high.

Even better, the Saints have the best pass grade in our line matchups tool this week, as the Panthers have generated the lowest pressure rate (21.9%) and the lowest time-to-throw adjusted pressure rate over expectation (-9.92%) of any defense. Since the start of last season, Olave’s FP/RR has nearly doubled (from 0.26 to 0.52) when his QB is kept clean.

I’m sympathetic to arguments that the Bryce Young-led Panthers won’t push the Saints enough to create the mega-ceiling game we’d need to justify playing a chalky Olave on the main slate, but his receiving yardage over is a clear value to me.

Recommended Prop: Chris Olave over 67.5 receiving yards (DraftKings, -115)

Evan Engram vs. the Eagles’ Slot Funnel Defense

$5,300 (TE4), 11% Projected Ownership

The Eagles are a slot funnel, allowing the 10th-most schedule-adjusted FPG to the slot (+1.4) but the 2nd-fewest to the outside (-5.7). Evan Engram ran 57.0% of his routes from the slot in games without Christian Kirk last season, averaging an insane 18.7 FPG (+36% more than last year’s TE1) and leading the position with a 25.5% target share over that span.

Engram has already led or tied for the team lead in targets in every game he’s played this season, and ran 100% of the routes on the Jaguars’ final two drives in Week 8 when all three of their starting WRs had been knocked out of the game. Even with Gabe Davis and Brian Thomas Jr. projected to play, Engram’s prop is enticing to me.

Recommended Prop: Evan Engram over 49.5 receiving yards (BetMGM, -110)

Jayden Reed vs. the Lions’ Pass Rush and Slot-Funnel Defense

$6,400 (WR18), 4% Projected Ownership

The Lions are the league’s 3rd-strongest pass funnel (+5.0% PROE allowed), while the Packers have posted the league’s 6th-highest PROE (+3.6%) in Jordan Love’s full games. Adam Schefter believes Love will play in Week 9, and that’s reflected in this game’s 48.5-point over/under. This appears to me as an underrated potential shootout environment (by projected main slate ownership).

On paper, the Lions have allowed the highest target share (39.9%) and the most schedule-adjusted FPG (+8.4) to opposing slots. Additionally, they’ve allowed the 4th-most receiving YPG on throws traveling 10 or fewer yards downfield (141.4). Both tendencies bode well for Reed (7.5 aDOT, 78.8% slot rate).

Perhaps most importantly, the Lions have generated a bottom-6 pressure rate (28.3%), while the Packers’ offensive line has a top-6 pass grade in our line matchups tool this week. Reed’s TPRR more than triples (from 9.8% to 30.6%) when his QB is kept clean since the start of last season. Correspondingly, his FP/RR jumps by +179% on unpressured dropbacks over that span. Reed’s 0.85 unpressured FP/RR this season ranks behind only Justin Jefferson and Nico Collins.

Not everything about this spot is perfect — the Lions do play the league’s highest rate of man coverage (43.8%), against which Reed averages -20.7% fewer FP/RR over his career — but the combination of the game environment, the individual matchup, and Reed’s pressure splits leave me to conclude that 4% projected ownership is far too low for his upside.

DK Metcalf vs. the Rams’ Perimeter Funnel and Single-High-Heavy Defense

$6,500 (WR15), 2% Projected Ownership

The Rams have allowed the 2nd-highest target share (46.4%), the 4th-most receiving yards per game (117.3), and the 5th-most schedule-adjusted FPG (+3.8) to opposing outside receivers, but the fewest receiving YPG (38.3) and schedule-adjusted FPG (-6.5) to the slot. With Seahawks HC Mike Macdonald optimistic about DK Metcalf’s chances to play, I’m pretty intrigued by his upside in this spot.

Metcalf is a positive regression candidate, averaging 17.9 XFP/G (WR6) but just 15.4 actual FPG (WR16). He still leads the league in air yards (887) and deep targets (20) despite missing last week’s game. He may be a “big play merchant”, but that’s a desirable archetype to target in a single-week DFS tournament format.

There’s a schematic element here as well; the Rams have played single-high looks 58.2% of the time this season (8th-most), and have done so over 50% of the time in six of their seven games (though last week was the one where they deviated, so be warned there’s a bit of uncertainty here). They’ve allowed 0.57 FP/DB when playing single-high, the most of any team, and Metcalf sees a +49.7% boost to his TPRR against single-high since the start of last season.

Metcalf’s efficiency has dropped off against those looks this year (1.68 YPRR vs. 2.71 in 2023), but that can at least partially be explained by variance; he’s dropped nearly 14% of his catchable targets against single-high this year. I’d trust in the larger sample that suggests Metcalf is capable of gashing this schematic matchup — this is yet another great contrarian tournament play.

Jakobi Meyers vs. the Bengals’ Perimeter Funnel and Single-High-Heavy Defense

$5,300 (WR34), 12% Projected Ownership

The Bengals have played single-high looks over 50% of the time in six of their eight games, or 57.6% of the time overall (9th-most). Jakobi Meyers’ TPRR more than doubles against single-high this year (from 13% to 29%), while his FP/RR sees a +34.4% boost. Even over a larger sample since the start of last season, Meyers sees a +29.7% TPRR boost against single-high.

In contrast, Brock Bowers has been notably less efficient against these looks, his YPRR falling from 2.87 against two-high (would lead all TEs) to 1.88 against single-high (~TE10). In games without Davante Adams but with Meyers, Bowers trails Meyers in target share (22.0% to 27.5%) and FPG (13.2 to 13.4). And Meyers’ 32.8% first-read target share over that span would rank top-12 among WRs this season.

All this is to say that even aside from the schematic angle, Meyers’ ability to earn targets and score fantasy points is being underrated. The Bengals have allowed the 3rd-highest target share to outside receivers (46.3%), where Meyers has run 58.9% of his routes without Adams. I’m unsure whether I’m willing to eat his 15% projected ownership on the main slate, but I’m certainly taking the over.

Recommended Prop: Jakobi Meyers over 50.5 receiving yards (Caesars, -123)

Kyler Murray, Marvin Harrison Jr., and Trey McBride vs. the Bears’ Cover 3 and Single-High-Heavy Defense

$6,600 (QB7) / $6,900 (WR11) / $5,800 (TE2), 4% / 1% / 9% Projected Ownership

The Bears have played single-high looks at the 5th-highest rate this season (59.8%) and have done so over 50% of the time in six of seven games, including 71.7% of the time against Jayden Daniels last week. Additionally, they’ve played Cover 3 at the 5th-highest rate (40.6%), and at a 35% or higher rate in six of seven games.

Marvin Harrison Jr. ranks top-12 at his position in YPRR (2.92) and FP/RR (0.59) against single-high, representing +139.3% and +59.5% boosts compared to against two-high, respectively. And Harrison’s route tree was significantly more varied (and better) in Week 8. This led to 23.1 FPG (his 2nd-highest of the season) against a Dolphins secondary that’s been even stingier than the Bears against outside WRs.

Moreover, Trey McBride’s 3.81 YPRR against Cover 3 ranks top-5 among players at all positions, as does his 0.66 FP/RR. He sees a +16.8% boost to his YPRR against Cover 3 since the start of last season. Finally, Kyler Murray leads all QBs in FP/DB against Cover 3 this season (0.76), receiving a +33.3% efficiency boost. His YPA grows from 7.06 (21st) to 9.00 (7th-best), a +27.4% boost.

This is a tough on-paper matchup (the Bears have allowed the 2nd-fewest schedule-adjusted FPG to opposing QBs) and would be a very contrarian play on the main slate, but it could be a schematically justifiable way to get different. Murray/Harrison stacks will also have virtually zero ownership in Underdog Battle Royale contests.

Recommended Prop: Marvin Harrison Jr. over 51.5 receiving yards (BetMGM, -110)

Quick Hits

• The Panthers have allowed the most schedule-adjusted FPG to opposing RBs (+5.3), and the Saints are 7.5-point favorites. Alvin Kamara averages 0.79 fantasy points per snap while leading this season (RB6), more than double what he averages while trailing (0.34). His snap share only falls slightly while leading (from 70.9% to 63.1%), and both Kendre Miller (DNP with a hamstring injury) and Jamaal Williams (LP with a groin injury) are banged up this week, which could afford Kamara more touches at the end of the game if there’s a blowout. Additionally, 71.9% of Kamara’s rush attempts have come on zone concepts. The Panthers have allowed the highest success rate (60.0%) and the 5th-most YPC (4.94) against zone concepts.

• If you want me to nitpick, Taysom Hill is expected to play, and Kamara has received just 48.1% of team red zone carries in the games he’s been active this season compared to 77.8% in games he’s been out. Kamara is a strong overall play, but you could justify a fade in large-field GPPs based on the red zone touch equity concerns.

• The Saints have allowed the most adjusted yards before contact per attempt in the league (2.85), while the Panthers’ offensive line has generated the 12th-most (2.11). The Panthers have the 3rd-best rush grade in our line matchups tool this week. Even better for Chuba Hubbard is that 66.1% of his carries have been on zone concepts (66.1%), against which the Saints have allowed 5.11 YPC (4th-most).

• However, the Panthers are 7.5-point underdogs with Bryce Young expected to start. Hubbard has averaged 19.0 FPG in games with Andy Dalton this season, but just 7.4 FPG with Young. He averages 1.09 fantasy points per snap while leading this season (RB1), but just 0.30 fantasy points per snap when trailing (RB31). So that’s pretty scary.

• The Saints are the league’s 2nd-strongest pass funnel (+5.0% PROE allowed) and have allowed the 4th-most receiving YPG on short throws traveling 10 or fewer yards downfield (142.0). The Saints have also played man coverage over 34% of the time in five of their eight games, or 41.0% of the time against this Panthers team in Week 1. I can’t get particularly excited about any WR catching passes from Bryce Young, but Xavier Legette and Jalen Coker have been +347.8% and +53.8% more efficient against man coverage this season respectively, by YPRR. (Though it’s unclear to me how much Coker will play if Adam Thielen is active).

• The Giants have allowed the 5th-most schedule-adjusted FPG to opposing RBs (+2.1). The Commanders’ offensive line has generated the 4th-most adjusted yards before contact per attempt (2.60), while the Giants have allowed the 3rd-most (2.61). The Commanders have a top-5 rush grade in our line matchups tool this week. It’s a solid spot for Brian Robinson.

• …but it’s an even better spot for either Tyrone Tracy (if he’s cleared from concussion protocol) or Devin Singletary (if Tracy is inactive). The Commanders have allowed the 4th-most schedule-adjusted FPG to opposing runners (+3.2) and are the league’s 2nd-strongest run funnel (-5.3% PROE allowed). 60.3% of Singletary’s (5th-most) or 56.2% of Tracy’s (9th-most) rush attempts have come on man/gap concepts. The Commanders have allowed the most YPC (6.19) and the 3rd-highest success rate (57.4%) to man/gap, compared to just 4.00 YPC (22nd-most) to zone concepts

• That said, I can definitely be talked into a Jayden Daniels ceiling game as well this week. The Commanders have posted a +6.0% PROE over Daniels’ last five healthy games (would rank 3rd-highest over the full season), and the Giants are a top-8 pass funnel (+2.7%). The Giants’ pass rush has generated the 3rd-highest time to throw-adjusted pressure rate over expectation this season (+9.76%), but that arguably helps Daniels’ upside; has a whopping 34.9% scramble rate when pressured this season, but just a 4.0% scramble rate when kept clean. He also throws deep nearly twice as often when he leaves the pocket (17.2%, would rank 2nd-highest) compared to when he stays in the pocket (9.6%, would rank 25th).

• Zach Ertz is slightly more efficient against pressure (+18.7% boost to YPRR), while Terry McLaurin is less efficient, seeing a -34.5% YPRR decrease since the start of last season. However, if you’re stacking Daniels, I’d rather do it with McLaurin due to the deep throw rate angle discussed above; McLaurin ranks top-5 in air yards share (46.6%). Additionally, Noah Brown leads the Commanders in target share (19.4%) when Daniels leaves the pocket and averages a whopping 1.07 FP/RR on those pass attempts.

• The Giants have the 4th-worst pass grade in our line matchups tool this week, as they’ve allowed the 3rd-highest time-to-throw adjusted pressure rate over expectation (+9.63%), while the Commanders rank as a slightly above-average pass rush (+3.15%). Malik Nabers’ target share falls to just 24.7% (from 39.6%) and his YPRR to just 0.92 (from 3.31) when his QB is pressured this year, a -72.2% YPRR reduction. One of Nabers’ best two games of the season came against this Commanders secondary, but they’ve been much improved over the past month, allowing just 171.0 receiving YPG (2nd-fewest) compared to 233.3 (12th-most) over the first month of the year. That’s arguably a result of the schematic changes Dan Quinn has made, which I discussed in this space last week. Additionally, the Commanders have allowed the 3rd-fewest receiving YPG on passes traveling 20+ yards downfield (26.4). It’s scary, but Nabers looks like a tournament fade for me.

• The Bills are a slot funnel, as they’ve allowed the 4th-fewest schedule-adjusted FPG to the outside (-4.7) but the 13th-most to the slot (+0.7). This is more reason to prefer De’Von Achane over Tyreek Hill chalk. Hill has never had more than 82 receiving yards against the Bills.

• The Dolphins have allowed the 5th-most schedule-adjusted FPG to opposing runners (+2.2) and are the league’s 5th-strongest run funnel (-3.6% PROE). However, the schematic matchup for James Cook isn’t quite as strong; 62.6% of his rush attempts have come on zone concepts (12th-most), against which the Dolphins have allowed just 3.45 YPC (5th-fewest). But then again, the Bills are 6.0-point favorites, and since Joe Brady took over the offense, Cook has averaged 21.2 FPG in games they’ve won by 7 or more points. Cook averages 0.74 fantasy points per snap while leading this season (~RB8 and a +76.2% boost), compared to just 0.42 fantasy points per snap while trailing.

• The Dolphins have allowed the 4th-fewest schedule-adjusted FPG to opposing slots (-2.8) and the fewest receiving YPG on short throws (78.3). Khalil Shakir has just a 3.4 aDOT, and 78% of his targets have come within 10 yards of the line of scrimmage this season.

• The Dolphins have blitzed two hyper-mobile QBs (Anthony Richardson and Kyler Murray) over 50% of the time in each of their last two games. I’m not fully convinced they will do the same against Josh Allen (as DC Anthony Weaver has mentioned they did so with Richardson due to his inexperience), but on the off-chance Weaver is misdirecting and they do, Allen would have slate-breaking upside. Allen’s YPA has jumped from 7.46 to 9.06 against the blitz this season (a +21.4% boost), while his FP/DB climbs from 0.58 to 0.76 (ranks 2nd-best). The ideal stack would be with Keon Coleman, whose YPRR sees a +35.6% boost (to 2.74) and whose FP/RR sees a +46.2% boost (to 0.57) against the blitz. Coleman leads the team with a 34.9% air yards share, 3 end zone targets, and 16.7 XFP/G over the past two weeks. It’s an angle I’m going to at least think about in tournaments, especially given the Bills lead the NFL with a +9.3% PROE since the Amari Cooper trade.

• The Chargers play two-high looks at the 3rd-highest rate (59.5%) and zone coverage at the 2nd-highest rate (80.9%). They’ve played zone at least 77% of the time in every game this year. David Njoku leads the Browns with a 23% TPRR against zone coverage and averages a 32% TPRR against two-high. Since the start of last season, Njoku has been +21.4% more efficient against two-high by YPRR, or +15.3% more efficient against zone coverage. And he’s been even better against those shells over the past two weeks — I’d have been recommending his props were he not added to the injury report as a DNP on Thursday.

• This is a tougher matchup for Cedric Tillman, who sees a -28.8% decrease to his YPRR and a -41.5% decrease to his FP/RR against two-high since the start of last season. Tillman has broken big plays against two-high over the last two weeks, but his TPRR against it falls to just 22% (3rd on the team), well behind Njoku (37%) and Elijah Moore (36%). I much prefer the latter two at lower ownership.

• The Titans have allowed the 3rd-highest target share to the slot (38.2%). Demario Douglas (81.6% slot rate) and Hunter Henry (57.2% slot rate) would theoretically benefit here. I don’t think Douglas has enough upside for the main slate, but Henry has at least gone over 17.0 DraftKings points twice this season, including once with Jacoby Brissett in Week 2. He’s hit 16.5 DraftKings points six times since the start of last season — only George Kittle has done so more times over that span.

• 58.7% of Rhamondre Stevenson’s rush attempts have come on man/gap concepts (6th-most). The Titans have allowed the 5th-fewest YPC (3.26) to man/gap runs.

• The Patriots play man coverage at a top-5 rate (37.6%) and have done so at least 39% of the time in five of their eight games. Calvin Ridley has seen a 37.0% target share against man coverage this season (5th-best), while his YPRR increases from 1.06 against zone to 2.48 against man, a +134% boost. I’m not in love with the play, but the Patriots have ranked as a merely average on-paper matchup for WRs this year and have allowed the 5th-most receiving yards per game on the deep ball (56.0). The Titans are throwing more with Mason Rudolph (39.0 pass attempts per game vs. 28.4 in Will Levis starts), and Rudolph is targeting Ridley more frequently (28.2%) than Levis was (19.2%), so I’d have some interest if Rudolph is confirmed as the starter.

• The Falcons play zone coverage at the 3rd-highest rate (76.3%) and have done so at least 70% of the time in seven of eight games. CeeDee Lamb sees a -55.8% YPRR reduction and a -52.2% FP/RR reduction against zone coverage since the start of last season. Jalen Tolbert and Jake Ferguson should somewhat benefit; Tolbert sees a +40.5% and +21.1% FP/RR and YPRR boost against zone, respectively, while Ferguson sees +14.1% more FP/RR and +17.0% more YPRR. The Falcons’ underneath funnel should also benefit Ferguson (5.5 aDOT) over Lamb, as they’ve allowed the 4th-fewest receiving YPG on passes traveling 20+ yards downfield (30.8).

• The Cowboys are the league’s strongest run funnel (-5.4% PROE allowed). The Falcons’ offensive line has generated the 8th-most adjusted yards before contact per attempt (2.21), while the Cowboys have allowed the 7th-most (2.47). The Falcons have the best rush grade in our line matchups tool this week. If playing Bijan Robinson, you’ll need to root for the Cowboys to keep this game close, as we called out his game script sensitivity in the Everything Report.

• The Cowboys have played single-high looks at least 58% of the time in five of their seven games. Kyle Pitts averages 3.25 YPRR against single-high this season, which ranks 3rd-best among 100 qualifying WRs/TEs (behind only Justin Jefferson and Brian Thomas Jr.). Since the start of last season, Pitts has seen a +63.8% FP/RR boost and a +78.2% YPRR boost against single-high.

• However, the Cowboys are a perimeter funnel, having allowed the 2nd-fewest receiving YPG to the slot (49.9) but the 9th-most to the outside (108.1). Drake London (62.8%) and Darnell Mooney (60.2%) run from the outside the most, but have seen -31.9% and -31.3% FP/RR reductions against single-high since the start of last season, respectively. The Falcons are tricky to figure out how to stack optimally as usual.

• The Raiders have allowed the 4th-most schedule-adjusted FPG to opposing RBs (+3.3). Chase Brown has clearly led over Zack Moss in red zone snaps over the past three weeks (15 to 4). He’s a solid option if you need to pay down at the position.

• The Raiders are a top-6 pass funnel (+3.4% PROE allowed), while the Bengals’ offense has posted the league’s 2nd-highest PROE (+7.6%). They are also a slot funnel, allowing the 8th-most schedule-adjusted FPG to the slot (+1.6) but the 5th-fewest to outside WRs (-4.1). Ja’Marr Chase has played some in the slot this year (32.4% of his routes) and theoretically has a great pressure matchup, as the Raiders’ pass rush has generated the 2nd-lowest pressure rate (26.4%), and Chase sees a +112% boost to his TPRR and a +71% boost to his FP/RR when his QB his kept clean since the start of last season. But I’m having trouble getting excited about this passing game; as we covered in the Everything Report, the offense has been significantly less efficient without Tee Higgins (DNP on both Wednesday and Thursday). The Raiders also allow the 2nd-fewest receiving YPG on passes traveling 20+ yards downfield (21.9). I think I’d rather stick with A.J. Brown when paying up.

• The Ravens have allowed the 3rd-most deep targets (40) and the 3rd-most deep receiving yards per game (66.9), as well as the most receiving yards per game to the outside (123.5). They’re the league’s strongest pass funnel defense (+5.8% PROE allowed), while the Broncos’ offense has posted the league’s 8th-highest PROE (+3.4%). They’ve allowed the 2nd-most schedule-adjusted FPG to opposing passers (+6.5) and the most to opposing WRs (+11.5), but the 3rd-fewest to opposing RBs on the ground (-3.1). This one is pretty easy; fade Javonte Williams, but fire up Bo Nix again. And as the only WR on the team seeing a full-time route share, Courtland Sutton is the only viable stacking partner.

• I’m aware I write a version of this blurb every week, but the Ravens are 9.0-point favorites. Since the start of 2022, Derrick Henry has averaged 116.5 rushing YPG (RB1) and 23.1 FPG (RB2) in wins, constituting +73.1% and +70.5% boosts compared to losses, respectively. Over that span, Henry averages 0.71 fantasy points per snap while leading (RB2), a +102% boost compared to when trailing or tied. 4% projected ownership is too low.

• The Broncos have played single-high looks 59.0% of the time (6th-most), and have done so at a 50% or higher rate in all six games this season. Over his career, Zay Flowers has been +110% more efficient by YPRR and +33.5% more efficient by FP/RR against single-high looks. Meanwhile, Rashod Bateman sees a -47.1% YPRR decrease against single-high. However, I think you’d be fine avoiding all Ravens receivers this week given the uncertainty of Diontae Johnson’s role, Lamar Jackson’s two consecutive DNPs on Wednesday and Thursday, and the difficult on-paper matchup (Denver has allowed the 2nd-fewest schedule-adjusted FPG to opposing WRs).

• The Cardinals are an underneath funnel, allowing the 5th-fewest receiving YPG on passes traveling 20+ yards downfield (32.6) but the 11th-most on throws 10 or fewer yards downfield (130.9). This favors Cole Kmet, D.J. Moore, and Keenan Allen over Rome Odunze (15.3 aDOT).

• The Bears are 1.5-point underdogs. D’Andre Swift has averaged just 11.1 FPG and 12.5 XFP/G in the Bears’ three losses this season (including just 9.0 XFP in Week 8). In wins, that’s jumped to 19.1 FPG on 17.0 XFP/G (and they’ve won all of those games by 7 or more points). In other words, Swift’s workload is +36% better in games the Bears win. For perspective, that’s about as game script-sensitive as Derrick Henry’s workload (+36.1%) over the past three seasons. Swift averages just 0.23 fantasy points per snap while trailing this year (~RB49). 23% projected ownership makes him a pretty comfortable fade for me outside of as a potential bring-back for Cardinals stacks.

• The Eagles are 7.5-point favorites. Saquon Barkley has averaged 22.6 FPG in wins this year (would rank ~RB1), compared to just 15.6 FPG in the Eagles’ two losses (~RB16). The Jaguars allow the 2nd-most schedule-adjusted FPG to RBs (+4.8). However, most of that has come through the air, and Barkley is seeing just a 7.4% target share in games with A.J. Brown.

• The Seahawks have allowed the 3rd-most schedule-adjusted FPG to opposing RBs on the ground (+3.2). 57.6% of Kyren Williams’ rush attempts have come on man/gap concepts (8th-most), against which the Seahawks have allowed the 4th-most YPC (5.42) and the 4th-highest success rate (57.3%).

• The Lions’ offensive line has allowed just a -3.44% time to throw adjusted pressure rate over expectation (4th-best) and has a top-5 pass grade in our line matchups tool this week. Amon-Ra St. Brown sees a +244% boost to his FP/RR and a +135% boost to his YPRR when his QB has been kept clean since the start of last season. Similarly, Sam LaPorta’s 0.59 FP/RR on unpressured dropbacks ranks 2nd-best among TEs behind only Mark Andrews since the start of last season, constituting a +149.9% boost. The Packers have allowed the 5th-highest target share to the slot (37.6%), and the 2nd-most schedule-adjusted FPG to opposing TEs (+4.7).