2024 NFL Week 6 Advanced Matchups

Welcome to Advanced Matchups!

Using the Fantasy Points Data Suite, I’ll be digging into coverage shells, blitz rates, individual matchups, and more every week throughout the season.

This column is mostly geared toward giving you an edge in large-field main slate tournaments on DraftKings, but I’ll also recommend player props so you can easily take advantage of my findings. This article’s props are 30-18 on the season!

Matchups To Target

Terry McLaurin vs. the Ravens’ Pass Funnel and Deep-Ball-Vulnerable Secondary

$6,400 (WR13), 22% Projected Ownership

The Ravens have been the 2nd-biggest pass funnel this year, surrendering a +6.9% pass rate over expectation (PROE). They’ve allowed the 2nd-most schedule-adjusted FPG to opposing WRs (+10.7) and the 2nd-most receiving YPG on throws traveling 15+ yards downfield (124.4).

This sets up perfectly for McLaurin, who leads the NFL in air yards share (55.1%) and has averaged 17.5 FPG since Week 3 (would rank ~WR9 this season). Over that span, he’s averaged 12.5 FPG just on throws traveling 15+ air yards (2nd-most behind Ja’Marr Chase), and 9.7 XFP/G on those throws (3rd-most behind Justin Jefferson and Darnell Mooney). Deep targets are inherently volatile, but that makes McLaurin an attractive GPP play even at ownership, as he’s had the big-play ability required to post a “bury you” score.

Recommended Prop: Terry McLaurin over 60.5 receiving yards (FanDuel, -114)

Derrick Henry vs. the Commanders’ Man/Gap-Vulnerable Defensive Line

$8,000 (RB2), 11% Projected Ownership

Beyond the more obvious reasons I want to play Henry this week (below), he has an excellent schematic matchup. Against man/gap concepts, the Commanders allow the league’s highest YPC (6.04) and the 5th-highest success rate (57.7%). On those carries this season, Henry is averaging 6.36 YPC (5th-most among 59 qualifying RBs).

Additionally, the Ravens have the best rush grade in our line matchups tool this week, as the Commanders are allowing the 2nd-most adjusted yards before contact/attempt (2.75), while Henry averages 3.29 YBC/attempt (2nd-most). There should be open holes for Henry all game.

Now to the obvious. Overall, the Commanders allow the 2nd-most schedule-adjusted FPG to opposing RBs on the ground (+3.8) and rank as a top-8 run funnel by PROE allowed (-2.2%). Furthermore, the Ravens are 6.5-point favorites, and boast the NFL’s 5th-highest run rate (60.4%) when leading by 7+ points this year. Every indicator points toward a run-heavy game plan.

This dynamic also historically benefits Henry himself, who averages 112.3 rushing YPG (leads all RBs) and 22.8 FPG (ranks 2nd behind only Christian McCaffrey) in wins since the start of 2022. That’s +66.7% more YPG and +68.5% more FPG than he averages in losses. He also sees a +90.5% boost to his fantasy points per snap while leading — Henry is the most gamescript-sensitive player in the league, and that has been the case for a very long time.

Henry’s failure to hit a ceiling as a chalky play last week may benefit us, as this is arguably an even better spot, yet he projects for just 11% ownership. I’m excited to jam him in yet again.

Recommended Props: Derrick Henry over 82.5 rushing yards (FanDuel, -114), alt over 90.5 rushing yards (DraftKings +130) — feel free to ladder this one even further.

Marvin Harrison Jr. vs. the Packers’ Single-High-Heavy and Perimeter-Funnel Defense

$7,200 (WR6), 5% Projected Ownership

The Packers are a major perimeter WR funnel, allowing the 4th-most schedule-adjusted FPG to opposing outside WRs (+7.4) but the 10th-fewest to the slot (-2.7). They also have a relatively consistent lean toward single-high looks, having played at least a 54% single-high rate in each game.

That’s significant relative to what Harrison and the Cardinals have seen so far this year — they’ve faced single-high coverage at the 6th-lowest rate, with only two teams playing it against them more than 50% of the time. Harrison averages 18.8 DraftKings FPG in those two games (compared to 12.4 in the three two-high-heavy games). He averages 3.14 YPRR against single-high this year (7th-best), a +214% boost compared to his efficiency against two-high.

It’s also worth noting that Jaire Alexander was limited in practice with his groin injury on both Wednesday and Thursday, and has not played since Week 3. I’m not particularly concerned even if he ends up active, as he may not be fully healthy, and A.J. Brown had no trouble hanging 23.8 DraftKings points when lined up across from him in Week 1.

Neither the Packers nor the Cardinals generate much pressure, ranking 5th-slowest and 2nd-slowest respectively by average time to pressure (2.70 and 2.80 seconds), and posting the 4th-lowest and 3rd-lowest time-to-throw adjusted pressure rates over expectation this year (-4.40% and -4.54%). Both offenses have a top-4 pass grade in our line matchups tool this week — if either team is pushed, this game should have no trouble shooting out.

A lack of pressure has meant more volume for Harrison as well. When Kyler Murray is pressured, Trey McBride leads the Cardinals with a 39.1% target share this year, while Harrison averages just a 0.12 TPRR. When Murray is kept clean, it is Harrison who leads the team with a 25.7% target share, while his TPRR grows to 0.29, a +142% boost.

For the bring-back, Jayden Reed sees a +168% boost to his FP/RR since the start of his career whenever Jordan Love is not pressured. The Cardinals have been solid against the deep ball this year (allowing the 2nd-fewest receiving YPG on passes traveling 20+ air yards), so I greatly prefer Reed (9.0 aDOT) to any of the Packers’ other higher-aDOT receivers. He also has the best individual coverage matchup of any WR this week.

Recommended Prop: Marvin Harrison Jr. over 55.5 receiving yards (BetMGM, -115), Jayden Reed over 59.5 receiving yards (BetMGM, -115)

Will Levis and Calvin Ridley vs. the Colts’ Cover 3-Heavy Defense

$4,800 (QB20) / $5,700 (WR18), 3% / 1% Projected Ownership

The Colts under Gus Bradley have played Cover 3 the 5th-most in the NFL this year (42.8%) and the 2nd-most in 2023 (48.5%). This is a fairly consistent lean, having played it on over 41% of dropbacks in four out of five games this year. This secondary has also struggled deep, allowing the most receiving YPG in the NFL on throws traveling 20+ air yards downfield (86.6).

Ridley has been the Titans’ deep weapon this year, leading the team with a 19.9 aDOT (2nd-highest in the NFL) and a 42.5% air yards share (14th-highest), as well as averaging 2.0 deep targets per game (tied-7th-most). He sees a +27.0% boost to his YPRR and a +22.1% boost to his FP/RR against Cover 3 since the start of last season — this is the same matchup we were targeting for Brian Thomas Jr. last week. And Ridley has some coachspeak on his side, with Titans HC Brian Callahan noting the need to find more ways to get the ball in his hands earlier this week.

As for Levis, the Colts have generated the league’s lowest pressure rate (21.4%) and the lowest time-to-throw adjusted pressure rate over expectation (-9.39%). When not under pressure this year, Levis’ FP/DB nearly doubles from 0.22 (would rank worst in the NFL on all dropbacks) to 0.43 (would rank 23rd-best). That lack of pressure is a big reason why the Colts have allowed the 4th-most schedule-adjusted FPG to opposing QBs this year (+5.2).

Honestly, we don’t even need that much from Levis himself — he’s priced at just $4,800 and projects as our 2nd-best point-per-dollar value. The presence of Spencer Rattler on this slate priced at the stone minimum should suppress Levis’ popularity despite how well he projects. He allows you to pay up to the expensive plays we like at RB and WR, and he provides leverage off a chalky Tony Pollard (26% projected ownership).

Saquon Barkley vs. the Browns’ Big-Play-Vulnerable Run Defense

$8,200 (RB1), 16% Projected Ownership

If the Eagles are smart, they will avoid dropping back as much as possible in this game. The Browns have generated the league’s highest time-to-throw adjusted pressure rate over expectation (+14.31%) and the fastest average time-to-pressure (2.32 seconds). The Eagles’ offensive line has allowed the 6th-highest pressure rate and ranks 3rd-worst in pass grade by our line matchups tool.

And Jalen Hurts has long been among the most pressure-sensitive QBs in the NFL — going back to the start of 2022, he’s averaged 0.79 FP/DB when kept clean (the most of any QB), but just 0.35 FP/DB when pressured (18th). He’s been even worse this year, with a 0.27 FP/DB when pressured (22nd).

With the Eagles as 9.5-point favorites, we should instead get a healthy dose of Saquon Barkley. Since the start of 2022, Barkley has averaged 21.8 FPG in wins (RB4) compared to just 13.6 FPG in losses (RB10) and sees a +66% boost to his fantasy points per snap while leading. In his two wins as a member of the Eagles, Barkley is averaging 34.9 FPG.

The Browns have allowed the 8th-most rushing YPG (141.6) and the 3rd-highest explosive run rate — carries that go for 15+ yards — of 8.5%. And they’ve allowed 324 rushing yards on explosive runs this season, the most in the NFL. Barkley has generated the 2nd-most YPG on explosive runs this year (44.5), behind only Derrick Henry.

There are plenty of other places to save on salary this week. I want this upside.

Recommended Prop: Saquon Barkley over 81.5 rushing yards (FanDuel, -114)

Ladd McConkey vs. the Broncos’ Blitz- and Man-Heavy Defense

$4,900 (WR31), 5% Projected Ownership

The Broncos have blitzed at the NFL’s 2nd-highest rate this season (43.9%). McConkey is averaging 2.96 YPRR against the blitz this year (9th-best among 72 qualifying WRs), a +61.5% boost. His 0.80 FP/RR against the blitz ranks 5th-best behind only Justin Jefferson, Ja’Marr Chase, CeeDee Lamb, and Jameson Williams, receiving a +79.9% boost.

Relatedly, the Broncos have played man coverage at greater than a 40% rate in every game this season, and play it at the 2nd-highest rate overall (47.6%). McConkey averages 3.81 YPRR (a +172% boost) against man coverage, ranking 5th-best behind Justin Jefferson, CeeDee Lamb, Malik Nabers, and Josh Reynolds. His 0.84 FP/RR against man ranks 6th-best.

In fairness, this is the nuts schematic matchup, but the stone-worst on-paper matchup, as the Broncos have allowed the fewest schedule-adjusted FPG to opposing slots this year (-8.6). But in this case, I believe it’s partially small-sample-driven; Chris Godwin is the only truly elite slot WR the Broncos have faced, and he happened to score his TD while lined up on the outside. We at least know McConkey will avoid Pat Surtain, and he’s a viable way to save salary without eating the 22% projected ownership of Jalen Tolbert.

But he’s more than that; McConkey also shredded man coverage in college, with only Malik Nabers beating him out in YPRR against man among Day 1-2 rookies. He ranks top-10 by 1D/RR and top-20 by first-read target share, impressive utilization for a first-year player (he ranks ahead of Marvin Harrison Jr. in both stats). A breakout game is coming eventually.

Recommended Prop: Ladd McConkey over 45.5 receiving yards (Caesers, -119)

CeeDee Lamb vs. the Lions’ Pass Funnel and Cover 1-Heavy Defense

$8,600 (WR1), 13% Projected Ownership

The Lions’ defense has been the strongest pass funnel in the league this season (+8.1% PROE allowed). The Cowboys have been above expectation (pass-heavy) by PROE in four of their five games, and they are 3-point home underdogs in the highest-total game of the slate (52.0). I’m frankly surprised Lamb does not project for over 20% ownership in a game environment so primed for a ton of dropbacks.

Schematically, the Lions have played man coverage at the league's 4th-highest rate (37.9%). Lamb averages an obscene and league-high 4.63 YPRR against man coverage (representing a +132% boost compared to against zone).

I refuse to overthink this one just because Lamb has yet to amass more than 9 targets or 98 receiving yards in a game this year — his preseason holdout may have contributed to his reduced involvement early (with Jalen Tolbert benefitting from the additional time working with Dak Prescott). But the matchup (the Lions are allowing the 3rd-most schedule-adjusted FPG to opposing WRs, and the most to slot WRs) and the game environment could not be better.

Recommended Prop: CeeDee Lamb over 83.5 receiving yards (BetMGM, -115)

Quick Hits

• The Buccaneers have played the most zone coverage in the NFL this year (84.3%) and have played it on at least 78% of dropbacks in all five games. Rashid Shaheed sees a +50.7% boost to his YPRR and a +47.7% boost to his FP/RR against zone since the start of last season. (Spencer Rattler removes any interest I’d have had for the main slate, but it will be worth seeing where the prop opens.)

• The Commanders have played two-high looks 59.6% of the time this season (4th-most) and have played it over half the time in four of their five games. Zay Flowers sees a -45.1 % decrease to his YPRR against two-high since the start of last season and averages just 1.27 YPRR against it this year.

• The Titans have allowed the league’s fewest receiving YPG on throws traveling 20+ yards downfield (14.0). Anthony Richardson attempts those passes at the league’s highest rate (18.2%), and Joe Flacco at the league’s 5th-highest rate (15.7%). Josh Downs (if he plays) is the only Colts WR I have interest in this week, as I don’t expect the deep ball to be there for Alec Pierce or Adonai Mitchell.

• The Texans are allowing the league’s 2nd-lowest success rate (38.1%) and the 7th-lowest YPC (3.62) on man/gap concepts. 61.0% of Rhamondre Stevenson’s and 62.9% of Antonio Gibson’s rush attempts have come on man/gap concepts (13th and 11th-most of 59 qualifying RBs).

• Additionally, the Texans have generated the league’s 2nd-highest time-to-throw adjusted pressure rate over expectation (+8.95%) and the 4th-highest overall pressure rate (39.7%). The Patriots have allowed the 2nd-highest pressure rate over expectation (+14.16%) and have the worst pass grade in our line matchups tool. Good luck, Drake Maye.

• The Patriots have leaned into man coverage every week this year aside from in Week 5 (against Tyreek Hill), playing it the 5th-most in the NFL this year overall (36.5%) and the 2nd-most last year (40.0%) under much of the same defensive coaching staff. I’d expect them to go back to it this week, which would favor Tank Dell, whose 2.58 YPRR against man coverage ranks top-15 among WRs since the start of his career. That’s a +30.3% boost compared to his efficiency against zone coverage. Dell’s separation abilities have been diminished so far this year, but he should eventually return to form, so this may not be a bad week to use him in GPPs against a Patriots secondary allowing 50.4 YPG on targets traveling 20+ air yards (9th-most).

• The Browns play the most single-high (76.2%) and the most Cover 1 (44.2%). A.J. Brown ranks 3rd in the league with 3.81 YPRR against single-high since the start of last season, a +108.4% boost. He also sees a +94.5% boost to his FP/RR against single-high. Similarly, against Cover 1, he averages 0.89 FP/RR, 2nd-most behind Tyreek Hill. I’m concerned about Jalen Hurts against the Browns’ pass rush (see the Saquon Barkley blurb above), but Brown is still a decent one-off contrarian play in tournaments.

• The Eagles have allowed the 6th-most receiving YPG on throws traveling 20+ air yards downfield this year (62.3). Amari Cooper has a 51.1% air yardage share (3rd-best) and averages the most XFP/G (6.3) of any WR on throws traveling 20+ air yards. He’s converted on just 2 of those 12 deep targets. Relying on Deshaun Watson is always high-risk, but it’s a better spot than most for Cooper as a GPP play this week.

• The Chargers have played the 2nd-highest rate of zone coverage this year (81.9%), and at least 79% in all four of their games. Courtland Sutton averages -29.5% fewer YPRR and -39.1% fewer FP/RR against zone coverage since the start of last season.

• 70.7% of Najee Harris’s rush attempts have been on zone concepts this season (8th-most). The Raiders are allowing the 5th-highest YPC (4.81) and the 4th-highest success rate (56.1%) on zone concepts. The Steelers are 3-point favorites, and Harris averages 72.0 rushing YPG in wins since the start of 2022, compared to just 44.4 rushing YPG in losses (a +62.1% boost in wins).

• The Steelers have played the 2nd-most Cover 3 this year (47.6%). Tre Tucker has been one of the least-efficient WRs in the league against Cover 3 (0.73 YPRR, a -49% reduction).

• George Pickens had just 61.3% route participation in Week 5, but where those routes came was different than we’ve previously seen — 52.6% were in the slot, up from 25.0% over the first four weeks of the season. If the slot usage sticks (but not the limited overall usage), Pickens would have a positive slot-funnel matchup this week, as the Raiders have allowed the 2nd-most schedule-adjusted FPG to opposing slots (+6.2).

• The Panthers play Cover 3 at the highest rate in the NFL (56.3%) and have done so at least 50% of the time in 4 of 5 games this year. Ray-Ray McCloud leads the Falcons in YPRR against Cover 3 this season (2.25) and sees a +22.7% boost to his FP/RR against Cover 3 since the start of last season. However, the Panthers have allowed the 2nd-most schedule-adjusted FPG to opposing outside WRs (+8.5), which benefits Drake London and Darnell Mooney more. There are somewhat compelling reasons to play any of these 3 WRs.

• 82.1% of Bijan Robinson’s rush attempts have come on zone concepts this year (2nd-most), with the vast majority of them being outside zone (71.6% of all his rushing attempts). The Panthers have allowed the 5th-highest success rate (55.1%) and the 4th-most YPC (4.82) against zone concepts, and even more YPC against outside zone (5.43).

• The Falcons are consistently Cover 3-heavy (43.4% rate this year, 4th-highest) and zone-heavy (76.6%, 4th-highest). Diontae Johnson sees a -49.7% reduction to his FP/RR against zone and a -14.9% reduction to his FP/RR against Cover 3 since the start of last season. This is a more extreme version of the negative matchup in which he disappointed against the Bears last week.