The 2024 NFL season is upon us, and with it, many upcoming NFL Showdown slates on DraftKings with hundreds of thousands of entrants and huge prize pools. The flagship tournaments are very difficult to win due to the number of entries. Still, there is a huge edge for sharp builders due to the number of casual players who enter lineups with virtually no chance of winning due to poor player choices or construction.
There are three primary components we need to think about when building Showdown tournament lineups: projection, correlation, and differentiation.
Projection
The lineup that scores the most points wins the tournament, so a natural starting point is creating a lineup that projects to score well. It is not usually possible to play six of the top projected players overall, so generally, this means starting with a mix of top projected players and top point-per-dollar value plays.
Correlation
Much like classic slates, paying attention to correlations – both positive and negative – is key to Showdown success.
Quarterback correlations are particularly important. There are two ways quarterbacks typically score fantasy points: passing and rushing. Some quarterbacks regularly score many points on the ground, while others score virtually all of their points through the air. And, of course, there is a sliding scale. It’s important to consider the type of quarterback when deciding whether, and to what extent, they need to be correlated with pass catchers.
Consider that on each passing play, the pass-catcher scores more fantasy points than the quarterback, getting a point per reception and more points per yard and per touchdown. Yet quarterbacks are typically more expensive than their pass catchers. As a result of these scoring dynamics, it is a good idea to follow some basic rules when playing a quarterback in your lineup:
If the quarterback has high rushing upside, he can be played unstacked. But when the quarterback is played at captain, it’s still a good idea to have at least one paired pass catcher in the flex most of the time.
If the quarterback has little rushing upside, he should almost always be paired with at least one pass catcher. When a non-rushing quarterback is played at captain, multiple stacked pass catchers in the flex is better, because if the quarterback scores most of his points through passes to just one pass catcher, that pass catcher will usually score more fantasy points and be the better captain.
Across 36 prime-time games in 2022, the winning large-field tournament lineup had a captain quarterback seven times. Six of those seven included multiple stacked pass catchers in the flex. The seventh was an unstacked Justin Fields on a day when he ran for 82 yards and a touchdown, and none of his pass catchers had more than four receptions or 53 yards. A tiny sample that supports our intuition.
Differentiation
Differentiating your lineup from the most common lineups is generally a good idea. Doing so makes it easier to reach the top of the leaderboard, and also helps to avoid lineup duplication, allowing you to win a larger share of the first-place prize when your lineup wins.
Some easy ways to differentiate
Leave salary on the table. Casual players generally try to use the entire $50,000 salary cap or close to it, which leads to highly duplicated lineups. Leaving some salary on the table is the easiest way to decrease the duplication of your lineup. Figuring out how much salary to leave is nuanced because there is a sliding scale effect: assuming salaries are efficient, every bit of salary you don’t use slightly decreases your odds of winning while decreasing the number of likely duplicates. Going back to that small 36-game sample from 2022, there were 15 instances where the winning lineup used at least $49,000 in salary. On average, each person who won with those lineups won a bit less than $71,000. There were 21 instances where the winning lineups used less than $49,000. On average, each person who won with those lineups won slightly less than $383,000.
Low-owned players. Just like in NFL Classic DFS, choosing some players low-owned by the field is an easy way to differentiate on slates where there are some available with a reasonable shot at being optimal.
Embracing a bit of negative correlation or avoiding slight positive correlation. As noted earlier, trying to positively correlate your lineup is always a good idea. But there are certain instances where skipping a correlative piece or embracing a slight negative correlation can be a good idea in otherwise chalky lineups to avoid duplication. Some suggestions: Quarterback against opposing defense; Pass catcher at captain without quarterback at flex; Multiple running backs from the same team
