Best ball fantasy football truly is a beautiful game. It is a game that everybody from the casual “weekend warrior” fantasy football fan to the completely degenerate sickos (in a good way, of course) can play together and have a chance at some serious coin.
That said, it is also a game with boundless variance (you know, all that stuff we can’t control) and a borderline infinite game tree (a visual representation of the potential combinatorial possibilities of a given game). We also know that we can only control what we can control, which is a big reason why we measure success in this game through the lens of expected value (EV). EV removes variance and uncertainty and boils this highly complex game into digestible benchmarks from which we can measure our performance, and a big contributor to EV is the actual players we select on our rosters. At the end of the day, we need players who score points to win these contests we so feverishly enter all summer.
Once the first kickoff happens on Thursday Night Football in Week 1, ADP, speculation, and conjecture mean nothing.
Which brings us to player takes. We’ve taken time to discuss a lot of that theoretical mumbo jumbo to this point in our offseason journeys together, so we’ll now take the time to scrutinize my personal favorite clicks in each round of an 18-round draft. Before we begin, I want to make it abundantly clear that the bulk of this analysis is going to be presented via a compact range of outcomes discussion due to the extremely low-percentage hit rate we humans have at predicting the future, making it much more beneficial to us to think through player outcomes as they pertain to a range of potential outcomes as opposed to median expectation.
Finally, the ADP ranges discussed in this piece will reference current market sentiment as of July 29 and all stats will reference Half PPR scoring as is found on Underdog.
Round 1
The first round of best-ball drafts can’t really win you anything, but it sure as hell can place a roster in an early hole that is difficult to recover from. For that reason, many of my personal habit patterns in the first round are built around avoiding those landmines rather than picking out the top individual performers at a given position.
Furthermore, much of our exposure in the first round will be naturally influenced by the variance and randomness of which pick we are assigned (and at which rates), making it difficult to manage player exposures to any meaningful degree. But this is a “picks” article, so we’ll take a stand by breaking up the first round into three ranges: picks 1-4, picks 5-8, and picks 9-12.
The top click in the first four picks is none other than CeeDee Lamb. Lamb is coming off a season in which he amassed remarkable underlying metrics to the tune of 181 targets (first), a 29.9% TPRR (fourth), 29.9% team target market share (eighth), a 29.2% red zone target market share, 31 red zone targets (first), and led the league in receptions (135), YAC (680), receiving touchdowns (14), fantasy points per game (23.7), and expected fantasy points per game (23.6). Furthermore, the Cowboys were a different team following their Week 7 bye a year ago, leading the league in pass attempts, pass yards, passing touchdowns, and throws of 20+ yards downfield from Week 8 on, ranking third in yards per attempt during that time. It was clear to me that the focus of their offense shifted away from a run-balanced approach and towards a more forward-leaning aerial attack after mixed results early in the season. Considering their offseason moves and the state of their backfield, it is fair to assume those robust pass tendencies carry forward into the new league year, leaving Lamb as a top priority for me early in drafts.
Picks 5-8 bring a mix of two running backs and two wide receivers, with Justin Jefferson, Amon-Ra St. Brown, Bijan Robinson, and Breece Hall entering the picture. Of those four players, Hall stands out to me as the player carrying the top range of outcomes in the bunch. Hall amassed a robust 20.0 FP/G during the second half of the season (Weeks 10-18), ranking behind only Christian McCaffrey in half PPR fantasy points during that time (153.8). Not only that, but he accomplished that feat while playing on an offense that managed just 15.8 points per game (29th) after losing first-ballot Hall of Fame quarterback Aaron Rodgers after just four offensive snaps. If there’s one player with a last name that’s not McCaffrey I think can finish as the overall RB1 in 2024, it’s Hall.
The back end of the first round is where the current landmines reside, in my opinion, and there is but one remaining player on the board who has a legitimate shot at leading the league in fantasy points scored for non-quarterbacks – A.J. Brown. Brown ranked second in the league in FP/G through the first eight weeks of the 2023 season (19.2), before quarterback Jalen Hurts began being affected by numerous injuries. His 0.58 expected fantasy points per route run (XFP/RR) during that time ranked third, behind only Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle. Philadelphia’s 59.2% overall pass rate in the second half of 2023 also checked in well below historic pass rates in newcomer offensive coordinator Kellen Moore-led offenses. Brown has the tools and offensive composition to challenge the top at the position in 2024.
Round 2
The second round currently consists of an interesting mix of players with elevated floors but condensed weekly ranges of outcomes (Marvin Harrison Jr, Drake London, Davante Adams), players with immensely wide weekly ranges of outcomes (Chris Olave, Nico Collins, Deebo Samuel, Jaylen Waddle, Brandon Aiyuk, Mike Evans, De’Von Achane), and players with a mix of weekly floor and ceiling (Jonathan Taylor, Saquon Barkley).
Conventional logic would slightly boost the players with the best mix of floor and ceiling in this range, but the additional emphasis on spike-week scoring in a best ball format negates those antiquated trends, leaving me most interested in single-week ceiling here. Of the players from the “massively wide weekly range of outcomes” grouping above, the two 49ers and two Dolphins pique my interest the most. I’ve largely taken a weighted random approach amongst those four to this point in the offseason, but my highest exposure is currently a tie between Waddle and Samuel (14%). This is the range of the draft where weekly ranges of outcomes begin to jump to the front of my mind.
Round 3
Cooper Kupp – Weekly ranges of outcomes continue to see higher divergence in Round 3. Most of the players in this range of the draft either play for offenses expected to finish the 2024 season outside the top 10 in scoring or will face significant target competition on their respective teams.
The two players that do not reside in either of those two categories are Kupp and Lions tight end Sam LaPorta, the latter of whom can make sense depending on the selections in the first two rounds. As for Kupp, much of the pushback on the soon-to-be 31-year-old involves his declining per-target efficiency metrics over the previous two seasons in conjunction with his age. But we also must realize this is a player who has struggled through numerous injuries in the two seasons since taking home the receiving triple crown in 2021.
Kupp played an every-down role in 10 regular season games alongside Puka Nacua last season. In those games, he went over 100 yards through the air or scored a touchdown six times, while doing both in three contests. He should continue to serve as a primary pass-catching option for a team that currently boasts the fourth-most 48+ game totals (behind the Lions, Dolphins, and Bills). Finally, he is reportedly healthier than he has been at any point over the previous two years. Add it all up, and Kupp presents the best cost-considered weekly range of outcomes of the 12 third-round options.
Round 4
Isiah Pacheco – The Chiefs are projected to bounce back — in a big way — following their lowest per-game scoring output since quarterback Patrick Mahomes’ rookie season. The additions of downfield-oriented receivers in Hollywood Brown and Xavier Worthy give this offense more dynamism, which should provide more trips into the red zone and more touchdown opportunities for the offense. Now consider the state of the backfield, where the team failed to add any significant contribution following the decision to not re-sign Jerick McKinnon. Deneric Prince has reportedly received the bulk of the second-team work behind Pacheco in camp, and Prince has notably been light in his pass-game contributions to this point in his collegiate and professional career.
That leaves Pacheco with a tantalizing weekly range of outcomes with the opportunity to simultaneously score more touchdowns and be on the field for more third down snaps in 2024.
Round 5
Keenan Allen – This is one who wouldn’t have made my must-draft list a month ago, a time when Allen was found in the fourth round of best ball drafts. But here we are.
Allen is now firmly in the fifth round after finishing as the WR3 in FP/G in 2023, albeit while playing with a different franchise. Even so, Allen has yet to demonstrate a decline in per-target efficiency metrics, something that hints at a veteran pass-catcher approaching the vaunted “age cliff.”
Furthermore, Allen has been one of the most efficient wide receivers against zone coverage over the previous three seasons, while teammate DJ Moore has been one of the most efficient wide receivers against man coverage over the previous three seasons. Considering the continued transition to heavier zone coverage rates found in the league, in conjunction with the state of the Chicago Bears, it’s fair to expect Allen to once again earn the most targets while catching passes from a rookie quarterback.
That gives Allen a beautiful cost-considered weekly range of outcomes compared to the others currently drafted in the fifth round.
Round 6
Joe Mixon – Mixon has continuously proven to be capable of handling a large workload in the NFL. He now moves to a team that made significant improvements this offseason on the offensive side of the ball, that also has one of the best up-and-coming offensive play callers in the league in Bobby Slowik.
After finishing the 2023 season ranked 13th in points per game, the Texans have immense room to grow if Slowik can improve upon his poor situational play calling from a season ago. That leaves Mixon with a potential borderline workhorse role for an offense expected to finish in the top 10 in scoring in 2024. I can’t get enough.
Round 7
Diontae Johnson – This is one we have to hurry on, as he’s quickly leaping up draft boards this summer. The Panthers get one of the best offensive coaching improvements of the offseason with the presence of head coach Dave Canales, a coach who should help maximize the talent he has on the field while also designing an offense better suited to the talents of quarterback Bryce Young.
New teammate Adam Thielen started the 2023 season on a torrid stretch before his body began to shut down due to age, ending the season with just three top-five scoring weeks. That’s important considering the player archetype as a smart veteran player who could generate separation against zone coverage, something Johnson excels at.
Johnson should be set up for an easy path to 120 targets or more in 2024 and should return significant value in this range of the draft.
Round 8
Jonathon Brooks – “Hilow, man, what gives? Two Panthers players in the heart of the draft?”
Hear me out.
Brooks profiles as a legitimate workhorse back in the NFL, with ample size, speed, burst, and vision. His ADP is being held down here due to concerns over the ACL tear he sustained last year, which makes sense if viewing his range of outcomes on a yearly scale as opposed to a weekly scale. And yes, we may not get that every-down role until after his team’s Week 11 bye, but that’s OK, especially in best ball!
The takeaway here is that a workhorse role on an offense playing under a “quarterback and running back whisperer” head coach returns tantalizing upside late in the year for Brooks. Instead of asking yourself whether Brooks can return value against his ADP in a season-long setting, we should be asking whether Brooks has top-five weekly finishes within his weekly range of outcomes from Week 12 on. My answer is a resounding “yes.”
Brooks is a much better click in playoff-style formats like Underdog and DraftKings as compared to a cumulative scoring format as is found at Drafters (or the Marathon on Underdog).
Round 9
Courtland Sutton – Sutton quietly had a season almost identical to that of Jordan Addison in 2023. Both receivers should be playing the bulk of the 2024 season with a rookie quarterback, both receivers did not see additional target competition added in the offseason, and both receivers should be amongst the top two weekly options on their respective offenses. And yet, Sutton goes over a full round later than Addison in current drafts (after going almost two full rounds later earlier in the offseason).
Sutton has proven to be a legitimate red-zone threat throughout his career and now serves as the unquestioned top option through the air following the departure of Jerry Jeudy. Finally, Sutton could see a bump to his weekly floor heading into 2024 considering the presence of quarterback Bo Nix, a player who set NCAA records for completion percentage and was clearly a target of head coach Sean Payton’s regime in the draft.
Round 10
Javonte Williams – Williams has quietly lived in this range of ADP for the entirety of the 2024 draft cycle amidst growing concerns over his status with the franchise. Those concerns were exacerbated recently following beat writer reports that teammates Audric Estime and Jaleel McLaughlin were near locks to make the roster while Williams and Samaje Perine were likely “fighting for one roster spot.”
But if we dig deeper beyond that subjective fear, we find a player who is best suited to handle the bulk of the backfield work for a Sean Payton-led offense. Payton’s offenses have notoriously been friendly to backs that are capable between the tackles and bring pass-catching upside, something the 5’10”, 220-pound back brings with his measurables and profile. How quickly we forget that Williams was coming off a torn ACL in the 2023 season, something that could help explain his declining efficiency metrics.
I’m buying at this price all day.
Round 11
Jakobi Meyers – We’re entering the point of the draft where weekly floor is almost nonexistent as part of players’ weekly ranges of outcomes. That trend is bucked with Meyers. Meyers has proven to be a capable second option through the air for the Raiders, finishing the 2023 season as the WR25 in FP/G in half PPR while playing alongside a healthy Davante Adams for the entirety of the season.
That gives Meyers a solid cost-considered weekly range of outcomes, while also carrying significant contingent upside should something happen to Adams at any point this season.
Round 12
Mike Williams – Williams has finished each of the previous three seasons in the top 24 in FP/G, notably struggling to stay on the field during that stretch. Those injury woes continued into 2023 when he tore his ACL in Week 3.
That said, this is a player who continues to perform at a high level when on the field, and the timing of his injury means that he should be ready for the start of the 2024 season. His weekly range of outcomes is wider than most of the wide receivers in this range, but his weekly upside is palpable considering his status as the second pass game option for an Aaron Rodgers-led Jets offense.
Round 13
Jermaine Burton – Weekly floor is all but gone at this point in the draft, shifting the focus to what I call “best-case scenario” evaluation. In other words, what would be the best-case scenario for a player this season, and what would his upside be in that case?
For Burton, his best-case scenario would involve an injury to either Ja’Marr Chase or Tee Higgins (firmly in the realm of variance), but his weekly upside would be ridiculous considering this price. Burton would likely have been a first-round wide receiver if not for off-the-field concerns, meaning his talent and pedigree are higher than public perception any time he is on the field. Getting on the field at a meaningful frequency might be an issue early in the year, but his per-target upside is enticing should he be given the opportunity.
That’s the kind of profile I’m looking for this late in the draft.
Round 14
Jaylen Wright – You could almost copypasta the discussion above for Wright. Top offense. Check. Top talent. Check. Murky path to early season snaps. Check. But the upside is oozing for Wright considering his speed and presence in a Mike McDaniel offense.
If this dude gets an opportunity to serve as a top two back in this offense at any point this season, we could be looking at another De’Von Achane-like eruption in fantasy. I want to have exposure to that situation.
Round 15
Demarcus Robinson – Robinson didn’t start playing a starter’s allotment of snaps until deep into the 2023 season, but he returned immense fantasy value once that happened. He enters the 2024 season firmly entrenched in a starting role for the offense that led the league in 11-personnel utilization a season ago and carries immense contingent value should an injury occur to either Nacua or Kupp.
It’s another weekly range-of-outcomes profile that does not match current ADP.
Round 16
Jonnu Smith – Smith is a name I have been clicking ad nauseam through the first two months of the draft cycle. I get the hesitation surrounding the highly concentrated nature of the Miami offense last season, but this is not the same team as it was last year.
McDaniel and company addressed every hole in the skill position group this offseason, signing Odell Beckham Jr. and drafting Malik Washington to challenge for the WR3 role, drafting Jaylen Wright to give the backfield depth, and signing Smith to be a true weapon at tight end.
What is most interesting to me is the fact that Smith logged the second fastest tight end ball carrier speed since ball carrier speeds began to be tracked on his 60-yard catch-and-run touchdown reception while with the Falcons last year.
To sum that up – Smith is an athletic freak tight end whom the coaching regime and front office sought out this offseason, making it highly likely that he will be a regular contributor to this offense this year. That gives him an enticing case to be made for weekly upside at a ridiculously low price in best ball.
Rounds 17 and 18
This area of the draft is riddled with wide weekly ranges of outcomes – that’s why players are found down in this range. For that reason, it makes most theoretical sense to spread exposure to players drafted in the final two rounds of best ball drafts.
That said, not all players are created equal in this range. We’re looking for single-week upside here, not players who can contribute six to eight points weekly.
The players that stand out the most to me currently that are found at the end of drafts are Braelon Allen, Greg Dortch, Colby Parkinson, Kalif Raymond, Deneric Prince, Will Shipley, Dylan Laube, and Josh Reynolds, but this list is in current flux as more news is brought forward.
As you might notice with this list of must-draft players, weekly range of outcomes are far more important to us in best ball than median yearly production. Identifying the players with unbalanced weekly ranges of outcomes becomes more important after we leave the first seven rounds of fantasy drafts, but upside reigns supreme in best ball.
Targeting players with elite measurables and skill should be the priority over players in perceived good situations – a player’s situation can change with the wind. Finally, player takes should be utilized as a supplement to sound best ball basics like roster construction, Week 17 correlation, and positional allocation. The EV puzzle includes all of these variables as inputs, meaning we must strive to better all aspects of best ball play to maximize our edge in these contests.
