Week 13 is (mostly) in the books! In case you aren’t an insane person like me who likes to spend his Sunday night digging through usage data, I’ve curated five stats that will help you make better decisions in all fantasy football formats for the coming weeks.
Based on my findings, I’ll also do my best to provide buy, sell, and waiver recommendations for managed leagues where applicable. For a broader (if slightly less detailed) overview of usage across the league, I recommend this Twitter thread.
Stat #1: The Bucky Irving Takeover Is Official
I was foolishly hesitant to buy into Bucky Irving as the Buccaneers’ unquestioned lead back for DFS purposes this week. In his first game out of the bye, he’d set season-highs in every usage category, including running more routes than Rachaad White. Why did I even entertain the notion that he’d take a step back?
White still drew the “start” in Week 13, but Irving set new season-highs in backfield carry share (69.4%), rush attempts (25), rushing yards (152), and fantasy points (27.5). White was just as efficient on the ground (entirely thanks to a 38-yard play that set up the game-winning field goal in overtime) but received just 30.6% of the carries and a single target. Irving was even favored inside the 10-yard line, seeing a 4-2 carry split in his favor.
Now that Irving has a clear edge both in overall and high-value touches, I expect top-12 RB production out of him for the rest of the season. That’s helped by his remaining schedule, as he faces the Raiders (who’ve allowed the 6th-most schedule-adjusted FPG to opposing RBs), Chargers (23rd-most), Cowboys (15th-most, but are a top-5 run funnel and at risk of a blowout), and the Panthers again in championship week (2nd-most).
Stat #2: The Backfields That Will Drive Us Insane, Week 13
The Titans fell out of the game almost immediately, so one might argue we should take their backfield usage with a grain of salt. But their split went against my expectations for a blowout game script; Tyjae Spears saw just one touch while Pollard handled 88.9% of backfield carries and saw a 16.2% target share. If we can draw any conclusion from this, it would be that Tyjae Spears — who got multiple full practices in and was quickly cleared of concussion protocol before the weekend — may no longer have a significant role.
If that’s the case, Pollard could be a sneaky fantasy contributor down the stretch — in four games without Spears, Pollard has averaged 100.5 rushing YPG (~RB3) and 19.6 XFP/G (~RB2). The raw usage numbers got nowhere close in Week 13 due to the aforementioned blowout game script, but if we can extrapolate his backfield shares from this week going forward, Pollard could certainly approach that production over the final month of the season. The Titans play the Jaguars (the most fantasy-friendly matchup for opposing RBs) twice over their next four games, including during fantasy championship week.
At the worst possible time for his fantasy managers, the Panthers undeniably scaled back Chuba Hubbard’s workload in Week 13. He was held without a target for the first time since Week 7, while his 66.7% backfield carry share was his lowest since Week 2 (and it hadn’t dipped below 85% since Week 4). It also can’t help his case going forward that Hubbard lost a fumble in overtime, leading to the Panthers’ loss.
I suppose it makes sense that the team would eventually get the RB they traded up for in Round 2 involved, but you’d be forgiven for doubting it would happen this season based on HC Dave Canales’ frequent praise of Hubbard as well as the team signing him to a mid-season contract extension. Brooks averaged just 3.0 YPC on his six carries but received both of his team’s attempts inside the 10-yard line and was the only Panthers RB targeted in the passing game. If that’s how the team deploys these two backs for the rest of the season (Hubbard getting the majority of the carries but ceding all high-value touches to Brooks), neither is particularly startable.
Stat #3: Jonathan Taylor Is An Ideal Buy-Low For Playoff Teams
There are 28 running backs to have seen at least five rush attempts inside the 10-yard line since Week 9. Among them, Jonathan Taylor (nine such carries) and Alvin Kamara (five) are the only ones without a rushing TD over that span. That’s pretty brutal touchdown luck we should expect to positively regress.
Taylor’s workload is great; he’s seen 93% of backfield opportunities in that timeframe but has averaged only 10.2 FPG. He’s not involved as a pass-catcher (and has seen only three targets in the three games since Anthony Richardson returned as the starter), but that’s unlikely to matter much for the rest of the season. According to lookahead lines, the Colts face the Broncos as 2.5-point favorites, the Titans as 4.0-point favorites, and the Giants (who have allowed the most schedule-adjusted FPG on the ground of any team over their last five games) in the fantasy playoffs. All should be ideal game scripts for Taylor.
If your league’s trade deadline hasn’t yet passed but you’re locked into the playoffs, check whether the Taylor owner needs to win this week to get in. Taylor has a Week 14 bye, dramatically lowering his value to such a team. Stealing him away in exchange for an RB2-level player who can help your trading partner immediately could prove very profitable.
Stat #4: Ladd McConkey’s Statement Game
Ladd McConkey must have heard that I was poking holes in his schematic matchup heading into Week 13, because he treated us to a career day. His 50% target share led all players this week and was the second-highest by any player all season (behind only Malik Nabers’ Week 2). McConkey’s 78% receiving yardage market share was the most by any rookie since at least 2021.
And McConkey could easily have been much more productive than he was; 8 of his 9 catches and 105 of his 117 yards came in the first half! (Justin Herbert attempted only 8 passes in the second half, with both offenses largely imploding as McConkey attempted to play through a knee injury, which we’ll have to monitor this week.)
I’ve been on record throughout the season that McConkey seemed bound to turn into a league-winner if the Chargers continued abandoning their previously run-heavy approach, and that seems likely in the short term. J.K. Dobbins hit injured reserve over the weekend, ensuring he’ll be out until at least Week 17 — and the backfield generated just a combined 55 rushing yards in his absence this week. The Chargers’ next two opponents both rank as top-8 pass funnels, and their final two (the Broncos and Patriots) represent ideal schematic matchups for McConkey, who had shredded man coverage to the tune of 3.35 YPRR (2nd-best behind only Justin Jefferson) entering the week. If you stashed McConkey as I suggested as early as Week 3, that move seems likely to pay dividends now.
Stat #5: Kyren Williams Is Unkillable
It’s become something of a weekly tradition for Blake Corum to play most or all of either the Rams’ 2nd or 3rd drive. Without fail, half of fantasy football Twitter takes that chance to send several tweets about how Kyren Williams is going to lose his job. But what happens next is always the same.
After the Rams’ 2nd drive, Williams received 14 of the backfield’s remaining 17 carries, taking them for 101 yards and a rushing TD. That included getting both of the team’s carries inside the 10-yard line, with Williams tacking on a catch on the only target Rams RBs saw all day. By comparison, Corum took just 3 carries for 10 yards after his designated weekly drive.
Williams was even the one to officially seal the game by breaking loose for an 11-yard first down that officially put the Saints away. I’ve been on record as dubious of Williams’ chances of scoring as a top-12 RB for the rest of the year given his decreased involvement in the passing game, but Corum simply taking over the backfield outright by Week 17 is a <5% chance outcome in my view. He’s of course a premier handcuff that should be rostered in every league heading into the fantasy playoffs, but to expect anything more is wishcasting.
