Five Stats to Know: 2024 Week 10

Week 10 is (mostly) in the books! In case you aren’t an insane person like me who likes to spend his Sunday night digging through usage data, I’ve curated five stats that will help you make better decisions in all fantasy football formats for the coming weeks.

Based on my findings, I’ll also do my best to provide buy, sell, and waiver recommendations for managed leagues where applicable. For a broader (if slightly less detailed) overview of usage across the league, I recommend this Twitter thread.

Stat #1: The Hands Are Finally Hot In Denver

Sean Payton has been hinting that rookie Audric Estime could become more involved for weeks. It finally happened in Week 10, though it may not have been particularly pre-meditated.

Jaleel McLaughlin received the first carry of the game. Estime didn’t receive his first touch until the Broncos’ 3rd drive, but his first three carries went for 8, 6, and 10 yards. McLaughlin and Javonte Williams combined for just two touches after Estime ripped off his 10-yarder.

Estime ultimately received an 82.4% backfield carry share, 2 of the backfield’s 3 red zone carries, and a 61.9% weighted opportunity share. This isn’t bell cow usage (as he was not targeted), but there’s reason to believe he’s won the two-down workhorse role; notably, six of Estime’s carries came on the critical final drive. (The one where the Broncos needed to advance down the field while methodically burning the clock to set up what should have been the game-winning field goal — a task the offense executed, but the field goal unit did not).

So what’s Estime’s upside, and how much FAAB should you spend on him? He ranked as a top-5 RB in this rookie class based on Scott Barrett’s model, with his production comparing favorably to former college teammate Kyren Williams…but unless we see him get more involved as a receiver (an outcome his prospect profile suggests against), Estime does not have Kyren Williams-level usage in his range of outcomes.

But then again, nor will any RB available on waivers this time of year. I have no issue with unloading 40% or more of your FAAB if a potential low-end RB2 can help you for the rest of the season.

Stat #2: The Backfields That Will Drive Us Insane, Week 10

Gus Edwards and Trey Benson have arrived to ruin two of my favorite stories in the NFL this season, and I won’t pretend I’m not a little mad about it.

When we last saw Edwards, it was as a non-factor next to J.K. Dobbins, whose role had ascended to that of an every-down bell cow, earning 81.4% of backfield XFP over their last two games together. That changed in Edwards’ first game back from injury in Week 10, when he captured 37% of the backfield’s carries and two of five attempts inside the 10-yard line.

Between that and losing a goal-line TD to Hassan Haskins, Dobbins was left earning just 56.5% of the backfield’s weighted opportunities, his lowest mark since Week 2. Dobbins’ bell cow days may be behind us; I’d consider him more in FLEX territory moving forward.

We’d been raving about James Conner’s usage (adjusted for blowouts, drives missed due to injuries, etc.) over the past few weeks. But it looks like the Cardinals’ coaching staff has decided to lighten Conner’s workload proactively, as Trey Benson received his first real non-blowout, non-injury-related usage in Week 10. He amassed 5 carries and 2 targets before Conner was pulled.

Through the first three quarters, Conner saw just a 66.6% backfield carry share. He made up for it with a season-high 20.8% target share and with a score, but I’d consider this an ideal sell-high point. You can likely still extract high-end RB2 value in exchange for him. There’s a chance he continues producing that way, but it becomes less likely (especially on an offense as unreliable as the Cardinals’) as Benson gets more involved.

I’ll hedge a little bit; Conner has an enticing fantasy playoffs schedule featuring the Patriots (a top-7 schedule-adjusted matchup) and the Panthers (the top schedule-adjusted matchup). And Conner has played incredibly well this year. But there is some serious risk Benson makes this closer to a true 50/50 timeshare by the time those games roll around. Test your market.

Stat #3: Running Backs Who Missed Drives In Week 10

A ton of running backs missed a drive or two in Week 10. This is going to skew most usage stats for any of the following backfields.

Seven of Cam Akers’ 13 carries, and his only target, came while Aaron Jones was unavailable. He returned for the final two drives.

Six of Jaylen Warren’s 14 carries came on the drive Najee Harris missed with an ankle injury. Incidentally, Warren fumbled at the goal line to end that series. He didn’t touch the ball again for the rest of the game once Harris returned.

Tank Bigsby was injured on the 2nd drive. He returned to carry the ball one more time later in the game, but we likely can’t draw many conclusions from today’s usage. I’d still favor Etienne in any week the Jaguars will likely face a negative game script (such as against the Lions and Texans over their next two games).

Finally, five of Tyjae Spears’ seven carries occurred between when Pollard came off the field in apparent pain and the start of the second half, when Pollard took the first carry. Pollard was never officially reported as injured, but there’s a good chance the team wanted to give him a breather over the next couple of drives. The overall split was still in Pollard’s favor (nine carries and four targets to Spears’ seven carries and three targets), so I’d still project Pollard to lead the backfield next week, perhaps by a slightly wider margin.

Stat #4: A Pair Of Rookie TEs Worth Watching Or Stashing

This section is probably not going to lead to anything notable in your redraft leagues. But I wanted to highlight two rookie TEs who have seen recent usage upticks, on the off-chance they’re sitting on any dynasty waiver wires or they pop up as viable DFS punt plays over the next few weeks.

Giants rookie Theo Johnson has commanded 6 targets in back-to-back weeks. His 19% target share over that span matches Wan’Dale Robinson’s. Johnson has seen at least a 70% route participation rate in every game since Week 7, and at least a 60% route share in all but one game this season. The targets are just starting to materialize, but for dynasty purposes, it is noteworthy to me that the raw, hyper-athletic Johnson entered the season as an immediate starter.

Panthers TE Ian Thomas left Sunday’s game with a calf injury. If both he and Tommy Tremble remain out after the Panthers’ Week 11 bye, rookie Ja’Tavion Sanders would be the only TE remaining to have run a route since Week 2. Sanders has commanded 5+ targets in four of his six games since Week 5. He’s one of only three Panthers to command above a 30% target share in any game this year.

Stat #5: Capitulating On Calvin Ridley

In three games since DeAndre Hopkins was traded, Calvin Ridley has averaged a 34% target share, 100 receiving YPG, and 20.4 FPG. Over the full season, those would rank as the overall ~WR1, ~WR2, and ~WR3, respectively.

Neither the return of Will Levis (who posted a season-high 127.4 passer rating, with his shoulder now presumably healthy) nor a difficult schematic matchup against a tough Chargers defense slowed Ridley down in Week 10. Since OC Nick Holz hilariously said they were going to stop forcing the ball to Ridley, a league-high 44.1% of his team’s receiving yards have flowed through him.

Ridley still gets to play the Jaguars twice before the end of the season, giving him among the most favorable remaining fantasy schedules of any WR. I’d imagine it’s too late to buy him for less than the price of a high-end WR2, but I wouldn’t be particularly shocked if he produces as one for the remainder of the season.