This piece was written jointly between Brian Drake and Fantasy Points contributor Matt Donnelly. You can always catch Donnelly active in our Subscriber Discord.
With the best-ball draft being all the rage, SiriusXM Fantasy Football Morning host Brian Drake and I decided to put our money where our mouths were. We got ourselves in one of FFPC's Pros vs. Joes leagues. Let me start by saying the term “Joe” is an understatement. These fantasy managers jumping into this FFPC league are some of the most prominent high-stakes players in the industry.
With that said, Brian and I had devised a strategy for the first few rounds in preparation. We had scoped out some of the early Pros vs. Joes drafts to get an idea of how the board could fall, and luckily, we both have been in enough drafts with the "Pros" to get an idea of how they think.
View Drake and Donnelly’s FFPC Pros vs. Joes Draft Board HERE.
Round 1 Ja'Marr Chase, WR, Cincinnati Bengals (WR3)
Before the draft started, we identified three guys as the pick at 1.06. As expected, the first round of this draft played out the same way as any other draft. Breece Hall, Bijan Robinson, and Chase were our pre-draft targets with this pick. Both backs came off the board right before we went on the clock, which made our decision much easier.
Chase has as good a shot as any to finish as the top overall fantasy receiver. Last season, Joe Burrow started with a calf injury, then got hurt again later. But, in that five-game stretch in which he was healthy, he tossed 12 touchdown passes, and Chase was the WR3 in both overall and expected points.
One key thing to watch is how the Bengals use Chase from the slot. Over the last three years, that slot rate has risen from 14.3% to 28%. That's huge, considering his target share from the slot is 29% while his yards per route run on his career is 2.40 compared to 23% and 2.14 from the perimeter.
The first round is chalk.
Drake's Take
Even though this is best ball, and it’s typically WR drunk, I would’ve been fine with Bijan or Breece. I think both provide unmatched upside from backs later in the draft. I didn’t even think to select Justin Jefferson at 1.06 because I don’t trust his QB situation. While he did show off last year in Weeks 16 and 18 with league-winner-type weeks, I’m not taking a player tied to Sam Darnold or a rookie QB in the top six.
Round 2 Saquon Barkley, RB, Philadelphia Eagles (RB6)
We knew we were looking at either a workhorse back or an elite tight end, considering the 1.5 premium on the position. We also knew that Sam LaPorta dropping was too good to be true, as he fell to 2.05 just a couple of picks ahead of our selection here in the second round.
We had some back and forth, knowing neither option would make it back to us in the third. What is more likely to happen, an elite tight we liked falling to 3.06 or a running back that would shoulder the load for their team? I'm glad we went Barkley, as Kyren Williams and Derrick Henry came off the board shortly after.
Again, before the draft, we discussed getting one of the backs that would be relied on heavily, volume matters, baby! Barkley will be a factor in the run game and this Eagles passing attack. Last season, the Eagles ranked 8th in the NFL, averaging 128.8 rushing yards per game. While Jason Kelce is gone, this Eagles' offensive line remains one of the strongest units in the league. Last season with the Giants, Barkley fell 38 yards shy of 1000 on the season, but with the upgrade in Philadelphia, a return to his 2022 form, which saw him rush for 1,312 yards, should be expected.
A random thought: One thing that might be fun in this format is double-tapping the tight end position if you are picking at the 1/ 2 turn. Imagine a LaPorta/Travis Kelce start in a 1.5 TEP format.
Drake's Take
I wanted either Barkley or Mark Andrews here. Andrews in TE premium is a game changer, but we felt like we could get our target of Evan Engram in Round 3 while locking down a potential top-5 back. I had no interest in Drake London, who went one pick after ours.
Round 3 Evan Engram, TE, Jacksonville Jaguars (TE7)
For us, the board was falling into place nicely.
With a 1.5 TEP, we knew that tight ends would come off the board at an unprecedented rate. We passed on Andrews the pick prior, but we weren't about to eschew the position again, as Engram was the 7th of 11 tight ends selected in the first three rounds, with the Pros accounting for 7 of them.
It may be hard to believe, but Engram may not have peaked yet. With 114 receptions last season, Engram still fell 37 yards shy of 1000 and finished with just four touchdown grabs. That seems like a lot of fantasy production left on the field for a tight end that commanded a 22.6% target share while averaging 1.66 yards per route run on 581 routes over a 17-game span.
With the departure of Calvin Ridley, who led the NFL in end zone targets, it's only a matter of time until Engram gets his, and when he does, that 13.7 fantasy points per game will take a healthy jump.
Drake's Take
I’m a massive Engram fan.
He put up gaudy numbers last year that would’ve secured him TE 1 overall status, except for the small fact that he’s allergic to the end zone. If he can score, say, 6 touchdowns instead of 4, he’s going to dominate.
Again, in TE premium we’d be foolish to pass up a player who was going to compete for the league lead in targets at his position.
Round 4 DJ Moore, WR, Chicago Bears (WR21)
There are not 20 wide receivers that are going to score more fantasy points this season than a healthy Moore. His numbers with Justin Fields and Tyson Bagent tell you all you need to know: Moore finished with 96 receptions, 1,364 receiving yards, and 8 touchdowns while seeing a 25.9% target share on his way to finishing as the WR9 in fantasy with nearly 17 fantasy points per contest in 2023.
Now, there is added competition for targets with the arrival of Keenan Allen and the selection of Rome Odunze. Still, there will also be more targets readily available, considering the offense that Shane Waldron is bringing along with him to the Windy City. If Moore can rank in the top 10 in receiving yards, fantasy points, and fantasy points per game in an offense that finished 28th or worse in completions and passing yards, any improvement in this offense will lend itself to more production.
Moore and Michael Pittman were my top choices, but we also discussed DeVonta Smith, George Pickens, Tee Higgins, and Malik Nabers. With Pickens, I was hopeful that he could have made it back to us, and with Higgins vs. Smith vs. Moore, we decided to get the number one option in the offense over secondary options.
Drake's Take
I’ve always been a fan of Moore’s talent. Finally, he has a quarterback who can accurately get him the football in Caleb Williams. We constantly forget how much of a baller Moore is because he’s dealt with complete trash under center his entire career.
While I do worry about the volume of balls he could catch with Allen and Odunze in town, I’m fine with betting on the most talented player on the team to shine through.
Round 5 Rachaad White, RB, Tampa Bay Buccaneers (RB13)
Last time we checked, this was still a PPR format. Regardless of how you feel about White as a runner, we know he is a trusted option for Baker Mayfield in the passing game.
With these first few picks, we wanted volume. Volume leads to fantasy points. Last season, White had 272 carries, which was second in the league, while adding the 9th most targets (70), hauling in 91% of those pass attempts. Add that up, and you had a back finish with the 4th most yards (1,539) while operating with a 75% opportunity share.
Bucky Irving is there, but you shouldn't worry too much. After all, you have a built-in fantasy buffer when you draft last season's RB4 as the RB13. Remember when we thought former Syracuse Orange player Sean Tucker would be a thing? Sorry, Brian!
Drake's Take
This was the start of a little RB run, as four of the next six picks were backs. White leaves plenty to be desired as a runner, but I’m thrilled to get him as our second back, thanks to his PPR prowess.
Losing OC Dave Canales is worrisome, as Mayfield could revert back to a pumpkin at any moment.
We’re banking on another season of short passes and PPR gold from White.
Round 6 Diontae Johnson, WR, Carolina Panthers (WR32)
Last season, there was more separation between Bryce Young's ears than between his receivers and opposing defensive backs. Adam Thielen tried to separate from Father Time — however, Father Time remained undefeated, as his end to the season proved.
Before the draft, we wrote “Diontae Johnson, no matter what” on a sticky note. Did we reach? Probably. This selection was worth the reach, with target hogs locked in at our top receiver spots in Chase and Moore.
Johnson is one of the best when talking about separation. Johnson's success rate against man and press coverage has been over 75%. His success rate against zone coverage is even better, with 82.8% being his worst over those four years. Last season, Johnson caught 51 passes on 87 targets for 717 yards despite some inconsistent play at the quarterback position.
However, Johnson was targeted on 144, 169, and 147 occasions, respectively, in the previous three seasons, meaning he's getting open.
Drake's Take
The guy’s coach is saying to anyone who will listen that the offense is built around him. So let me see… bad team (check). No other viable target competition (check). A small QB who wants to deliver the ball quickly (check).
This will go down as our best draft pick.
Round 7 Aaron Jones, RB, Minnesota Vikings (RB20)
If not for that hamstring injury that cost him six games, Jones would have led fantasy managers to the promised land. But with Barkley and White already locked in, some risk is mitigated.
Last season, when healthy, Jones would average 4.6 yards per carry, catch 30 balls, account for an 11.8% Packers target share, and was among the top backs in terms of stuff rate (35.9%) and yards before contact per carry per attempt (1.92)
Drake's Take
Our third back is a former fantasy stud who’s found a new home on a team with a rookie QB and secondary WR who has legal troubles.
Jones could and should be very busy for the Vikings as a pass catcher and runner. Once healthy, he looked great to end the season. He finished the year with five straight 100-yard rushing performances, including in two playoff games.
Round 8 Xavier Worthy, WR, Kansas City Chiefs (WR43)
Up to this point, we had been a well-oiled machine. I don't know if my negative feelings regarding Worthy took over, or if I wanted another running back here. For me, Najee Harris would have looked lovely on Team Can-Am Connection. Arthur Smith is not a man to be trusted, I get it, but this feels like a miss.
That said, it could work out. We have three established receivers ahead of Worthy, so a boom/bust play as our WR4 could pay off from week to week. Opportunities matter. Kansas City has led the league in pass rate in the last five seasons, passing at least 64% of the time. With weapons such as Travis Kelce, Rashee Rice, and Marquise Brown, the targets may not be there consistently, but with Mahomes and Worthy's speed, you can expect a few deep shots every game.
Drake's Take
This may be a reach, but we’re betting on a deep threat in Patrick Mahomes' offense.
For best ball, he’s a great dart throw. (Jaxon Smith-Njigba was my next choice here.)
Round 9 Brock Purdy, QB, San Fransisco 49ers (QB12)
We had monitored the quarterback situation throughout the draft. We even considered grabbing one in the previous round, but with the teams picking ahead of us, we thought there was a good chance that Dak Prescott, Jayden Daniels, or Jordan Love would have fallen to us.
However, that was not to be the case as the duo of Curtis Patrick and Ryan McDowell grabbed Prescott as their QB2 behind Mahomes. Adding one of those top-12 projected fantasy quarterbacks would have been nice, but in my mind, Purdy can sling it with the best of them, especially when under pressure.
Before I talk about pressure, let's put some respect on Purdy's name.
Purdy's 7% touchdown rate last season was the highest in the NFL. He was also the top quarterback in yards per pass attempt (9.6), passer rating (113.0), success rate (53%), and rate of pass attempts resulting in touchdowns or first downs (43.2%). There was a reason he was considered an MVP candidate.
Under pressure, no quarterback in 2023 produced more fantasy points than Purdy, who threw the second-best catchable ball rate and had the 5th-best sack-to-pressure rate (14.6%).
As Jacob Gibbs notes, of his 4,280 passing yards (fifth in the NFL), 47.5% came after the catch. The league average was 47.8%. Purdy was below the league average. For reference, 61% of Patrick Mahomes' yardage came after the catch.
Drake's Take
As Donnelly said, we got screwed by teams snagging QBs ahead of us. I desperately wanted Jayden Daniels on this team for his dual-threat upside.
Purdy is an unsexy consolation prize for being at the end of a QB run. He’ll have plenty of QB1 weeks, but can he ever truly win us a week? Doubtful.
Round 10 Joshua Palmer, WR, Los Angeles Chargers (WR52)
This pick was all Drake. I had visions of Trey Benson with this pick, but he was snatched from our grasp one pick before. I was flustered, heartbroken, on the floor in a fetal position, so Brian made the call.
There’s no more Keenan Allen, Austin Ekeler, or Mike Williams in Los Angeles. Los Angeles decided to pass up on Malik Nabers and Rome Odunze in favor of adding additional protection up front for Justin Herbert in tackle Joe Alt. Even with the change of offensive philosophies, plenty of targets will be available, considering that Herbert is still one of the most talented signal callers in the NFL (full disclosure: this pick was made before Herbert’s foot injury).
Last season, Palmer averaged 10.8 fantasy points per game and was the WR45. It's hard to project sustainable success, but if you are looking for a potential breakout candidate, Palmer was on his way before an injury last season.
In eight contests, the pride of Brampton would catch 34 balls on 55 targets for 534 yards. Project that over a 17-game season, which works out to roughly 117 targets with a potential 72 grabs and 1,198 yards.
Despite that success, his current ADP has him coming off the board as the WR57 in most drafts, so getting him as WR52 felt like an excellent value for a player who connected with his franchise quarterback on a couple of big plays last season.
Drake's Take
So we snagged a team’s WR1 in the 10th round? Score!
People think the Chargers are never going to attempt a forward pass again. Folks, this game isn’t hard. Draft starting receivers while everyone else is drafting backups. I love this pick.
Round 11 T.J. Hockenson, TE, Minnesota Vikings (TE17)
There is only one fantasy champion. You can only win a high-stakes, best-ball league by taking some risks along the way. With how tight ends were coming off the board, this selection felt a little early, considering he is a better target in the 13th round, but TE17 also felt right at the same time.
I call this shooting for the moon. Hockenson tore his ACL last December, meaning he isn't likely to step on the field only about six weeks into the season. Six weeks should be enough time for the Vikings to tire of Sam Darnold under center and usher in a new era with J.J. McCarthy taking over the reins. A rookie QB will need a security blanket.
Let's not forget that, before that Christmas Eve injury, Hockenson was averaging 14.6 fantasy points per game, catching passes from guys like Joshua Dobbs, Nick Mullens, and Jaren Hall.
Drake's Take
This is a play-to-win move for best ball — we don’t care about any place but first. If and when Hockenson returns to this TE premium lineup, he’ll help us more than anyone else in round 11 could have.
Round 12 Nick Chubb, RB, Cleveland Browns (RB44)
As Bruce Arians once said, "No risk it, no biscuit.” I'll be the first to admit that Chubb's returning from this particular knee injury feels like an uphill battle. I'll also be the first to admit that I'm not that guy to bet against Chubb; the man is built differently. Chubb has already proven he can overcome this knee injury, given he suffered a similar one in college.
We already know Chubb is starting the season on the PUP. His strength is back, judging from the videos posted online, but the lateral movements will take time. Drafting Chubb is playing the long game, and I hope you get back in the second half of the season, which can carry you to fantasy glory.
Drake's Take
Our second consecutive pick with a massive injury risk but also huge upside. The other backs selected in this round are studs like Rico Dowdle and Jaleel McLaughlin. Chubb was a ballsy move to win a tournament. LFG.
Round 13 Justin Herbert, QB, Los Angeles Chargers (QB19)
THIS PICK WAS MADE PRIOR TO HERBERT’S FOOT INJURY
When will the disrespect stop? Sure, Allen, Williams, and Ekeler are all gone. I get people are scared off by Greg Roman's offense. But here's the thing: Herbert was hurt a majority of the season. Herbert still has one of the best arms in the entire league, he's got a new receiver in Ladd McConkey, who could not be covered down at the Senior Bowl, and he doesn't turn the ball over (1.7% interception percentage, second lowest in NFL history).
I'm willing to give Herbert a pass on last season, due in part because of that rib injury. Over a 13-game stretch when Herbert was close to 100%, he averaged 19.8 fantasy points per contest, and in many of those games, his receivers were banged up. Thepredicted downfall of Herbert may be premature.
Watching him out there on the field without the likes of Allen and Williams, you saw a different quarterback, one who spread the ball around and elevated the talent around him. Los Angeles couldn't run the ball last year, but now they will, meaning play action will play more of a role in Herbert's numbers than last season.
The strength of the schedule may also be a factor. Going from the fifth-hardest to the second-easiest could improve Herbert's fantasy outcome, if you are into that kind of thing.
Drake's Take
Herbert pairs with Joshua Palmer for a Chargers stack.
The groupthink around the Chargers' offense is a tad overblown. As our second quarterback, I’m fine with Herbert. If he can give us some multiple-TD weeks, it will provide a solid floor for our quarterback room.
Round 14 Marvin Mims Jr., WR, Denver Broncos (WR68)
At this point of the draft, you are swinging for upside. We are still determining who Denver's quarterback will be. We also don't know who the second option behind Courtland Sutton in the passing game will be. Why not Mims?
Mims had just 7 receptions and 5 kick returns last season, and with those limited touches, he produced eight of the 10 longest gains for this Broncos team. Expect Mims to be used out of the slot this season and to run more than go routes.
Given his explosive play-making ability, the Broncos want to get the ball into his hands more in year two, especially after they made Jerry Jeudy expendable.
Drake's Take
Another young, talented player on an evolving offense. He could start opposite Sutton, and this kid can take any play to the house. What’s not to love in round 14?
Round 15 Chigoziem Okonkwo, TE, Tennessee Titans (TE25)
With Hockenson looking at a potential six-game absence, we needed another tight end on this roster. And I’m trying to look at the positives… maybe we didn't miss on Okonkwo last season. We may have been just a year early.
Coaching plays a vital role in determining potential breakouts. Enter Brian Callahan, who, as the offensive coordinator in Cincinnati, had the Bengals operating out of shotgun on more than 66% of their offensive snaps. Will Levis is preparing to take that next step, and while there are robust options in the passing game pecking order with DeAndre Hopkins, Calvin Ridley, and Tyler Boyd, Hopkins is dinged up and the other two receivers are older (as is Nuk, of course).
Drake's Take
I don’t love this pick. We needed another TE because Hockenson is on the shelf. We did debate adding Levis as our QB3 which would’ve been a stack partner.
I just don’t see anything special about Chig. He’s in a crowded situation in Tennessee.
Round 16 Bryce Young, QB, Carolina Panthers (QB27)
Let's see how good Dave Canales really is. We saw reclamation projects in Geno Smith and Baker Mayfield churn out top-10 fantasy seasons under his tutelage. If Canales makes it a fantasy three-peat, then Young and Diontae Johnson may be the cheapest league-winning stack in all of fantasy.
Carolina went into the offseason looking for help for Young. The Panthers traded for Johnson, drafted Xavier Legette, and added guards Robert Hunt and Damien Lewis for some much-needed protection. Young was pressured at an over 40% rate last season, with his tackles giving up most of that.
With improved coaching, line play, and weapons, Young could easily follow suit in the fantasy shadows of Smith and Mayfield.
Drake's Take
We’re betting on Canales here. Young was dreadful a year ago. He can’t really be that bad … can he?
Rounds 17 & 18 Jalen McMillan, WR, Tampa Bay Buccaneers (WR79) and Javon Baker, WR, New England Patriots (WR85)
We were still swinging for the fences in the 17th round and getting "my guys." I may have overstepped, but I ran my mouth this offseason about how I felt you are getting everything you like about Rome Odunze in Jalen McMillan but with a two-round discount in rookie drafts. His production was equal to that of Odunze in 2022, and over the final three contests, McMillan outproduced Odunze in college fantasy.
McMillan primarily played in the slot during his time in Washington, but he is versatile enough to line up elsewhere and be the third option behind Mike Evans and Chris Godwin.
Meanwhile, in New England, someone has to be the guy. This competition for targets is wide open for Demario Douglas, Ja'Lynn Polk, Kendrick Bourne, and Javon Baker. Baker makes the hard catches look easy when he doesn't drop them, and his run-after-the-catch ability is a fantasy goldmine.
I don't know about you, but I hope the phrase "Drake and Bake" catches on.
Drake's Take
McMillan could start outside for Tampa Bay and produce weekly, while Baker could easily separate himself on a Patriots team that is void of talent.
Rounds 19 & 20 Keaton Mitchell, RB, Baltimore Ravens (RB68) and Kenneth Gainwell, RB, Philadelphia Eagles (RB72)
It was Mitchell or Devontez Walker (who went with the next pick) in the 19th. We decided we needed a pair of backs to complete our build, and since we were already living dangerously with the PUP, what's one more? When Mitchell returns, he will be a nice change of pace, with Derrick Henry pounding away on defenses.
Last year, Mitchell ranked 1st in breakaway run rate (14.9%), 1st in yards per carry (8.4), second in fantasy points per touch (1.2), and his 3.2 yards after contact per attempt also topped the league.
As for Gainwell, he is probably not the next backup regarding talent in Philadelphia (that may be rookie Will Shipley). But the coaches love him, and we needed another running back, so why not grab our handcuff to Barkley and call it a day?
Drake's Take
{{
Kenny Gainwell has been getting a decent amount of first team RB reps. Not just exclusively Saquon.#Eagles
— Brandon Lee Gowton (@BrandonGowton) July 25, 2024
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Gainwell is getting first-team reps in Eagles camp. Saquon Barkley has never been the picture of health. You find me a better upside pick in round 20.
