Hey everyone, I’m trying out a “burning questions for an ex-scout” article this time around. There were a lot of good questions coming from our subscriber Discord, and a few that require longer-form answers (stay tuned for those).
I know a lot of people say it, but I truly do love grinding through film to understand what makes a certain offense work or how good specific players are, so keep the questions coming. Hopefully my takes aren’t too hot for Fantasy Points.
Subscribers can reach out to Scott DiBenedetto in our subscriber-only Discord — find him @Scott DiBenedetto
Who is the best receiver on the Packers?
So, I’ll keep this question to Christian Watson, Romeo Doubs, Jayden Reed, and Dontayvion Wicks, as they were the four leading receivers in Green Bay a season ago. This is not a hard question, in my opinion.
Watson is the best. I know Scott Barrett and Ryan Heath would both agree with this based on the analytics, but, remember, I’m basing this entirely on film. And on film, he looks much different and a clear step ahead of the rest of the group. He’s a bit of an upright mover but has great size and snap to his routes to get open at all three levels. He can win with physicality and also has the speed to take the top off the defense. He’s also treated as a No. 1 WR by both Green Bay and opponents. He is the guy the Packers want to hit on deep shots, and he is the guy who commands a safety over the top. The one negative is I wish he were more consistent in contested situations (and, of course, I wish he could stay on the field), but this is still an easy answer for me.
After Watson, it’s Reed, Doubs, then Wicks. I really like Reed and how they deploy him. He’s fast and has good separation ability. His size is limiting against early physicality, but he is an explosive player who can be used as a chess piece. Think of a rich man’s Mecole Hardman the first time he was with Kansas City.
Doubs has good flashes but is too inconsistent to be higher for me. He was serviceable as the defacto No. 1 when Watson was out, but I don’t see the same snap, body control, and ability to beat physicality as Watson.
Wicks rounds out the top four and is a good fit for that role. I love his size and straight-line speed, but he has the least versatility of the top three and doesn’t need the same attention as the other guys.
Does Rachaad White actually suck on the ground, or was it just the OL/offense?
Sorry, Bucs/White fans, but the answer here is a bit of both. Starting with the OL/offense, Rachaad certainly wasn’t getting consistently clear holes to run through and had to deal with a lot of backside pressure early in carries, due to poor TE blocking. The playcalling didn’t put him in the best position either, since he had 29 fewer carries in man/gap concepts but gained more yards here than with zone runs, 4.29 YPC vs. 3.12 YPC. So the Bucs' offense/blocking wears part of the blame for White’s inefficient 2023.
But he wears a lot of the blame too.
On film, I saw an athletic runner with quick enough feet and a good burst once he got into space. It just looks really hard for him to actually make it to open space. One thing I always look for when evaluating running backs is whether he can create on his own when the blocking breaks down. I didn’t see a lot of backfield twitch and creativity to escape defenders, and what was more troubling was the lack of power to break through tackles. White’s vision is also an issue, especially with zone scheme runs. He is so much more confident hitting the hole on man/gap concepts with a designed path but hesitates and loves to keep zone runs inside, even when there is space on the edge.
All that said, I’m not a total hater. I do think he’s a serviceable ball carrier and “sucks” is a bit harsh, but he leaves a lot of yards on the field with bad vision and questionable playcalling for his skill set. A new OC could put him in more advantageous spots, but look for rookie Bucky Irving to possibly eat into his workload, given how much more decisive of a runner he is.
Has Travis Kelce lost a step?
Short answer: “Yes, but he’s still Travis Kelce.”
2023 was a weird year for the future Hall of Famer. For the first time since 2015, he failed to eclipse the 1,000-yard mark at 984, but he also played in only 15 regular season games — remember, he got hurt in practice and missed the opener, so he wasn’t healthy from the get-go.
He scored only five touchdowns, but he led the team in targets, endzone targets, 1st read% (25.8%), receptions, and receiving yards while missing two games. On film, everything still looks good or at least above average in terms of his athletic ability, route running, and open-field speed.
His hands, ability to tear up zone coverage, and awareness to get open as plays extend are still excellent, but there was one main issue that stood out to me.
Against man coverage, Kelce had to rely on his physicality, or he flat-out couldn’t create separation. Opposing defenses have wised up to put their best cover LB or a big Nickel on him, and where he’s lost a step is his quickness to separate at the top of the route. Often, I’d see him get locked up or flagged for OPI because he has to push or throw defenders off himself.
The stats were a bit down, yes, but his rankings within Kansas City’s receiving group tell me that he’s not falling off a cliff any time soon. Andy Reid will continue to scheme him open, and Patrick Mahomes will continue to rely on his security blanket. Rashee Rice was second on the team in receiving yards last season and could take over as the #1 option down the road, but as long as Kelce keeps playing, I see him as the cornerstone of the Chiefs’ passing attack.
I’m hearing a lot of buzz on Jalen McMillan out of Bucs camp and Chris Godwin was going to be used in the Cooper Kupp role.
Do you see Godwin as a good fit for that role, or is McMillan better suited? Is Godwin just a bit washed at this point, or is a rebound coming?
I really like this question because I’ve always been a Chris Godwin fan and Jalen McMillan has looked pretty good in his first two preseason games.
I’ll start with the last part of this question. No, Godwin is not washed.
He’s put up 1,000 yards receiving four of the last five seasons and would have in 2020 if not for multiple injuries. In my time with Cleveland, we looked at Godwin as an ideal #2 WR and wanted to replicate his skill set when finding a guy for that role. I’ll admit he lacks some of the snap and shiftiness he had a few years ago, but on film, you can tell he’s evolved his game.
He wins now with what I call “savvy” — understanding how to engage a defender before the breakpoint, using his body weight to create space, and maximizing his athletic ability. He’s a crafty vet who has gone through multiple offensive coordinators, quarterbacks, and injuries and continues to be a tough matchup for any defense.
Now for the Kupp role question. OC Liam Coen returns to the NFL after a year as the OC at Kentucky. He’s spent a bunch of years in the McVay system, so finding someone to fit the Kupp role will be critical for the Bucs offense, and for that, I’d go with Godwin over McMillan here. That said, It’s unfair to compare anyone to Cooper Kupp. His route running has always been superb and he has an excellent understanding of how to set up and break off defenders. Neither of these guys has that same skill set, but Godwin is better suited for that style of play. He’s proven he can go over the middle and be successful working interior defenders. It was borderline negligent coaching how far his slot usage fell last season, given how productive he’s been inside in the past, and Tampa didn’t really give him a chance to be successful on the outside with his average YPRR at 1.78 compared to 2.24 in the slot.
Chris Godwin's fantasy football finishes
McMillan has primarily aligned on the outside through the first two games so I would have expected to see him inside more if they intend to use him in that role. That said, he has more twitch and suddenness than Godwin and is very strong at the catch point, so McMillan could fill in well if Godwin were out.
Is there a chance Kimani Vidal leads the Chargers in touches, or is he more of a change-of-pace guy?
This question would have had a completely different answer if I had written this last week.
Vidal was a highly productive ball carrier at Troy, putting up 1,132 and 1,661 yards on the ground in his final two seasons, respectively. He had an injury that kept him out four days earlier in camp, he didn’t play a snap in the first preseason game, but then led the team in touches, carries, and rushing yards in the second. I would have said it wasn’t looking good for Vidal, but he’s flashed enough to be fully in the mix for a roster spot in a deep Chargers RB room.
It’s pretty clear, to this point, that Gus Edwards and JK Dobbins are co-starters for
Week 1. Vidal is competing with three vets — Jaret Patterson, Isaiah Spiller, and Elijah Dotson — for the final two RB spots. I think it’s a very long reach to think Vidal could lead the team in touches and become the starter if there aren’t major injuries. However, he might be the leading candidate for a Jaleel McLaughlin type of role, when he proves he’s worthy of sticking around and eventually works to a #2/#3 role.
Worst case, the Chargers will keep him around on the practice squad if they choose to go with a vet RB room. Teams typically aren’t quick to completely jettison draft picks without giving them a shot on the P-squad, but he’s in the conversation to make the team.
I'm cooler on the Texans than the market. How sticky do you think last year's passing game success is?
I’ve been somewhat confused with how often this has come up, and the feeling that CJ Stroud and the Houston offense is a lock for a sophomore slump. I’ve heard Baker Mayfield comparisons, in that he had an unexpectedly strong rookie year followed by a step backward in year two. I understand the logic of that argument and see some broad similarities between how the 2019 Browns and 2024 Texans were built, but I see Houston’s passing game being explosive once again. Bear with me as I compare situations.
- Offensive Coaching – In 2018, we had a mess of an offensive staff in Cleveland. The issues were well documented in that year’s Hard Knocks, eventually leading to the head coach and offensive coordinator being fired mid-season, while Baker was setting the rookie record for touchdowns. In 2019 the staff was changed up, but in no way was it any better or more impactful for the QB, so he took a step back. Houston doesn’t have that problem in 2024. OC Bobby Slowik stayed put, and Stroud has another full offseason in the system. As I’ve preached in previous articles, “continuity, continuity, continuity.” Another year in the same offense is good for everyone so I’m expecting Nico Collins and Tank Dell to be productive once again also.
- Diva WR addition – We traded for Odell Beckham in 2019, and that brought in the biggest hype train Cleveland had seen since LeBron. That season, he performed well and got the fans excited, but an injury the next season and a disgruntled 2021 produced a mid-season trade. Houston traded for Stefon Diggs, who overstayed his welcome at his previous two stops but did not extend his contract. This is a much better situation for the QB, in my opinion, since his diva WR is now in a contract year and is perceived as being on the downswing after a rough finish to 2023. Logically, Stroud should get better effort and attitude from Diggs. I think a lot of people expect and maybe want Diggs to be the downfall of the 2024 Texans, I just don’t see it.
So far in this preseason (yes, I get that it’s the preseason), Stroud has looked solid. He’s decisive and accurate with the ball and looks the part of a QB who’s confident in the system. I believe in him and this offense.
