Watching Anthony Richardson play football is a trip, man.
A recent conversation in one of the dynasty channels in our Fantasy Points Discord really got me thinking about the second-year quarterback in Week 2.
This particular user brought up a point made in my last article relating to specific ways dynasty managers can react to weekly results more effectively, in which it’s said that “anecdotal one-offs aren’t going to be sustainable occurrences and, therefore, should not be used as primary or even prominent secondary supporting arguments for the case of a player.”
From there, a discussion surrounding Richardson arose.
To summarize, we talked about all of the typical items like how volatile his scoring floor is at times, how these struggles and inconsistencies may lead to a short stint as an NFL starter long-term, but that it’s easy for everyone to love the exceptionally long touchdown bombs and rushing acumen he brings to the table. All of that, and Richardson’s already dealt with a significant shoulder injury, but I’m not a doctor and have no plans to pretend to be one in this piece.
But the meat and potatoes takeaway from all of this is the central focus of why there’s such a great divide in how the dynasty community values the Indianapolis Colts signal-caller.
Folks are unlikely to feel ambiguously toward Richardson as an asset; you (probably) are either completely bought in on the Herculean athletic skill set or wholly avoidant based on the glaring longevity concerns.
After witnessing Richardson’s Week 2 stinker performance against the Packers that contrasts almost perfectly with his outrageous Week 1 fantasy nuke fest, it feels appropriate to give some context to exactly “what” Richardson is from a dynasty perspective and introduce the concept of a newly budding archetype of NFL quarterback.
Understanding the Three True Outcomes (TTO)
We’re living amid professional football’s analytics revolution.
Understanding the various metrics and measures of efficiency that correlate to player production and how this can all be projected forward is a fascinating aspect of working in this industry in general. While I cannot claim to be as sharply attuned to these lenses of viewing football as a good number of my colleagues here at Fantasy Points, plenty of perspectives regarding analytics make sense to me for one specific reason.
Baseball is the sport I’ve played, watched, and followed most closely in my life. The convenient overlap between baseball and American football is that both sports are static in nature and lend themselves to patterns and sequencing of events inherently.
Professional baseball underwent its own major analytics revolution between the mid-2000s and early 2010s, the origins of which were popularized in the 2011 film Moneyball. This revolution resulted in what we know as Sabermetrics and the on-field product we see today.
Having a background in baseball allows me to spot parallels in the NFL, and the one that stands out the most when it comes to a player like Anthony Richardson is the concept of the “three true outcomes hitter.”
According to Major League Baseball’s official website, the phrase was coined by baseball writer and historian Christina Kahrl to describe a player whose skill set primarily leads to at-bats ending in either a strikeout, a walk, or a home run on average— the “three true outcomes” of a play in baseball.
Considering that idea gives us the lens required to identify these quarterbacks in the league today.
What Makes a TTO Quarterback?
There’s no one-for-one match for what a “strikeout” is in football and so forth, but we can generally distill these outcomes reasonably well when it comes to QB play:
Errant throws and turnovers
Rushing production
Explosive scoring plays (running or passing)
From here, putting together a list of TTO quarterbacks is easy.
We can eliminate pocket passers who present such little rushing upside to the point that their arm is their sole means of production. Those aren’t the players we’re talking about.
You probably already think of this described archetype as the “Konami Code” quarterback, a term popularized by fantasy football analyst Rich Hribar in 2013 when discussing players with the “cheat code” of rushing upside. Our own Scott Barrett explored and revisited this concept in 2021, and the findings are reasonably conclusive in that quarterbacks who can run are difference-makers.
However, the modern application of the Konami concept hits some snags because the trait of rushing upside is becoming more common as the league and the athletes who enter the professional ranks evolve. This leaves room for this archetype to need a further distinction between quarterbacks who can run the ball and those who need to run the ball for their careers to flourish.
TTO Isn’t the Same as the Konami Code
Take, for instance, someone like Cheifs QB Patrick Mahomes with so much transcendent ability as a passer that he seldomly even uses his gift of rushing (19.7% of career games with 35 or more rushing yards, per Pro Football Reference). We don’t think of him as a Konami player, even though he has flashed this trait, considering he ranks second in passing yards per game (292.5) among quarterbacks (min. 200 attempts) since 2020 behind only Tom Brady, per Stathead.
The two-time MVP represents the highest outcome of the Konami Code in the same way that his peer Bills QB Josh Allen, who ranks ninth in passing yards per game (263.4) and fifth in passing touchdown rate (5.9%) since 2020, technically counts as part of the archetype.
Much like in baseball, the rarity of a player with 20-20 ability (recording 20 home runs and 20 stolen bases in the same season) has been significantly lessened over time. Most MLB teams have at least one player capable of this without being a household-name superstar, like Zach Neto of the Los Angeles Angels or Brenton Doyle of the Colorado Rockies.
Relative speed and athleticism combinations are no longer rare, but those with a solid propensity to consistently showcase their traits of running and throwing the ball in tandem are a rarity.
Football players like Mahomes and Allen are at Shohei Ohtani levels of effectiveness, as the Los Angeles Dodgers DH/pitcher is en route to becoming the MLB’s first member of the 50-50 club by the end of their regular season at the end of September.
The goal here is to identify the baseline for those quarterbacks who broadly bring the “walk” element in the form of rushing ability and “home run” ability in the form of explosive scoring plays to the table with their arms as consistent aspects of their three outcomes.
From there, we can determine which players “strike out” more than others and how to value these quarterbacks from a dynasty perspective best.
The Historical Context of TTO Quarterbacks
Given the restraints of this exercise, we're following Hribar's original methodology as closely as possible. We’re looking for players who’ve recorded at least 60 rushing attempts and played at least 5 games since 1993 (a.k.a. the past 20 years).
It’s not a perfect compromise to the original premise, but it is essential to capture as many of these quarterbacks as possible, including those who may not have panned out in the NFL.
From there, we land on a list of 30 quarterbacks within that threshold who additionally averaged at least 20 rushing yards per game in their career(s) better to balance out the per-game discrepancy of the original premise.
Below is the list of TTO quarterbacks over the past two decades:
Here, we can consider other factors such as Passing Success Rate, quarterback rating, touchdown and interception rates, and plenty more in addition to the baseline rushing criteria to organize a grouping of players worth viewing as the general archetypal range of outcomes for these TTO athletes.
Of course, we have complicated exceptions in the form of Michael Vick, Deshaun Watson, and Colin Kaepernick, each of whom experienced off-field controversies that cut into their playing careers, and the case of Robert Griffin III’s gruesome December 2023 knee injury that essentially ended his days as a starter.
These occurrences offer an incomplete view of the success of this archetype.
Still, we have a primarily functional established basis for accurately asking the question, “Are you a Kyler Murray, or are you a Tim Tebow?” and a median answer being roughly Blake Bortles.
With that, where exactly does Richardson come into play?
How Anthony Richardson Fits Into the TTO Discussion
Through six career games, here’s how Richardson’s play to date ranks among his TTO peers in various measures:
Seventh in rushing yards per game (38.2)
10th in fantasy points per game (18.1)
12th in passing touchdown rate (4.4%)
26th in Passing Success Rate (40.1%)
29th in completion rate (55.5%)
For as much as he struggles with his arm at times, Richardson is undoubtedly a difference-maker with his rushing contributions, which shows in the fantasy box score.
He is currently the perfect test case for the TTO quarterback. As my fellow Fantasy Points contributor put it in the original Discord conversation on this topic, Richardson is “giant Justin Fields,” and “it doesn't matter if he is good at QB… [Richardson] is gonna score rushing TDs and throw nukes.”
So long as the Colts’ gunslinger continues to strike on his “nuke” plays, maintain the ability to throw for over 200 passing yards per game, and sniff a 90.0+ passer rating, Richardson will likely see opportunities in the NFL.
Applying TTO Moving Forward
When a player like Fields or Richardson enters the league, there are only three long-term outcomes: they figure it out and stick around, they become a two or three-year asset you can use in lineups or flip when convenient based on your roster’s contention status, or they flame out. According to Spotrac, only eight quarterbacks in the TTO group didn’t receive a second contract from the team that initially acquired them (regardless of fantasy or real-life output)—or, more plainly, 32%.
Among the 25 quarterbacks in this sample, only nine have been able to average at least 18 fantasy points per game in four-point per passing touchdown scoring— or, more plainly, 36%
Those who do not meet the criteria for both measures above (seven quarterbacks) represent 28% of the sample size— they count as busts for all intents and purposes.
Why mention those three items in succession? Because the time-honored tradition of loosey-goosey math tells us those totals add up to 96%, which is pretty damn close to 100% in the grand scheme of things, thus we have the framework for a corresponding three outcomes for this archetype.
Through this lens, we can better contextualize the value of not just Richardson but other TTO quarterbacks like Malik Willis, a player currently experiencing his second opportunity in the league as Jordan Love’s injury replacement in Green Bay, or even Ryan Tannehill (who shockingly doesn’t belong to this subset of players somehow but deserves mention) in hindsight.
Even on a limited sample size, we have a good idea of which guys will likely end up with value insulation. For every Tebow or DeShone Kizer, we get a couple of guys like Fields whose athleticism is so tantalizing that he earns a second opportunity with a team and continues to be a viable dynasty asset.
In the grand scheme, the TTO quarterback is volatile but a little safer as long-term assets than expected on the surface level.
Don’t fear players like Richardson and Fields, now that you know what you’re looking for.
