2023 Week 8 DFS Coverage Shells

Last week we saw some abnormal performances and upsets. Buffalo lost to New England and San Francisco lost to Minnesota, while undrafted rookie QB and Division II phenom Tyson Bagent led the Bears to victory in his first career start against the Raiders.

Week 8 is a slate that currently has the top-eight offenses in projected points favored by six or more. Ideally, we like two strong offensive attacks competing against one another to drive up competitive gameplay and volume for our stacks, but that isn’t necessarily the case this week.

Given the high cost of top players in those offenses and the heightened risk if you try to get cute with secondary weapons in potential blowouts, I won’t stray too far into their games. There are, however, a few interesting matchups to exploit elsewhere, and I’m excited to share those with you.

Reminder: No teams have a bye this week!

Team Offenses

The following chart shows offenses excluding BUF/TB. The X-axis is their market implied point totals, and the Y-axis is their pass rates in “neutral” game scripts this season (early downs, win probability between 20-80%). Towards the right suggests a high-scoring week, and farther up vertically means the team passes often:

Again, just be cautious of the elite offenses and their potential lopsided matchups. If they’re favored by a lot, and things get out of hand, it could mean less volume in the second half for pass catchers/quarterbacks.

Team Defenses

Texans @ Panthers

The first battle between the top two overall picks in the 2023 NFL Draft goes down in Carolina this week between Bryce Young ($5,100) and the visiting Texans led by CJ Stroud ($6,300).

Each squad is coming off a bye week, but I trust Houston’s coaching staff here in terms of game preparation, on top of an already encouraging matchup for their passing attack.

The Panthers deploy the 2nd-highest rate of zone coverage on defense at 83% this season. Stroud is averaging 0.38 points per dropback against zone, top ten among all QBs:

Further, CAR plays the 7th-highest rate of single-high coverage at 59%. Among 24 QBs with 100+ dropbacks, Stroud ranks third with a 0.49 FP/DB against single-high.

All of that makes Nico Collins ($5,500) an ideal receiver to stack with this week. He’s averaging 3.33 YPRR against zone coverage, which ranks 2nd among 133 qualifying receivers.

Collins’ ridiculous 5.23 YPRR vs. single-high leads the entire NFL (A.J. Brown 2nd at 4.41).

If you’ve been reading this article on a weekly basis, you’ll notice my effort to incorporate coverage splits between single-high (middle of field closed) vs two-high (middle of field open) defenses. What I’ve found is that a team’s No. 1 target tends to shred single-high, while the secondary options see greater opportunities facing two-high via soft spots in coverage:

Houston is projected to score the 10th-most points this week, but they’re the only one of those 10 offenses favored by a field goal or less (currently HOU -3). This helps negate their low neutral pass rate, making Stroud/Collins a lucrative stack on the cheaper side of things.

Jaguars @ Steelers

Not only is JAX vs. PIT slated to be a close game (JAX -2.5), but you can make a bullish case for the weapons on either sideline given each defensive matchup.

Let’s start with Jacksonville’s weapons, breaking things down from a higher level. The Steelers give up 46 DK FPG and 206 YPG to wideouts, both of which are the 2nd-most among defenses. More specifically, PIT allows more FPG through the slot than the outside.

WR Christian Kirk ($5,900) leads his team in slot targets (38) and averages 2.13 YPRR from that alignment this year, 4th-best among 26 qualifiers with 100+ slot routes in 2023. On top of all this, PIT is a top five defense in man coverage usage. Our Scott Barrett has emphasized all year to roll with Kirk against man-heavy opponents.

Opposing offenses pass over the middle vs PIT at the highest rate in football (32%). Further, the Steelers have a 9.8 defensive ADOT and sacrifice over 310 air yards per game, both of which are top three among defenses.

Kirk and TE Evan Engram ($4,500) own the middle of the field for the Jags. Calvin Ridley ($5,800) has no middle production (literally zero receiving yards over the middle of the field), frustrating many fantasy owners as a boundary-X receiver this season:

On the other sideline, WR George Pickens ($5,600) has an interesting matchup despite the recent return of teammate Diontae Johnson ($5,000). JAX allows the 2nd-most schedule-adjusted FPG to outside receivers this season (+8.8). Pickens’ 2.58 YPRR from the outside is the fourth-best out of 25 qualifiers with 150+ routes.

The Jaguars play the 6th-most zone coverage this season (79%). Opposing offenses also pass at the highest rate in neutral situations against them this season. Pickens has been a monster against zone coverage, and Diontae has struggled against zone coverage dating back to last season.

A caveat for Johnson over Pickens has always been volume, but the matchup and defensive neutral pass rate Jacksonville allows could very well make up for the volume concerns in a projected close game.

Ravens @ Cardinals

This matchup between the Ravens and Cardinals is quite interesting from a coverage perspective. Arizona deploys two-high looks the 3rd-most among defenses (51%), while Lamar Jackson ($8,100) faces two-high the least out of any starting QB this season:

If the Cardinals remain static as a defense/don’t adjust to their opponent, TE Mark Andrews ($6,400) is certainly a strong play in this matchup. Andrews’ 3.57 YPRR vs. two-high coverage ranks 4th-highest among 151 qualifiers in 2023.

If you’re looking for a cheaper receiver within this top-five projected scoring offense, WR Zay Flowers ($5,600) has a stronger matchup if you’re using less specific peripherals vs this coverage unit. ARI allows the fifth-most fantasy points (43) and third-most yardage (193) per game to WRs this season.

Flowers also leads the team with a 34% first read share in the second half of games when BAL is leading (Andrews 20%), and the Ravens are currently favored by 8.5 points.

Raiders @ Lions

Detroit holds the third-highest team total of the week (27.25) as the Lions host the Raiders in what many call the mecca of offensive firepower that is Ford Field – league-high 58.4 combined points per game over the last two seasons.

The Lions got stomped 39-6 on the road last week in Baltimore and are looking for a bounceback performance from their offense. Jared Goff ($6,400) is the ninth-most expensive QB on DraftKings for the slate, likely because the Raiders give up 199.6 passing YPG this season (third-fewest among defenses).

However, given Detroit’s implied point total and the coverage matchup, Goff captures a ton of variance for production in his range of outcomes to make me look past the limited yards LV allows through the air.

Goff is tied with Patrick Mahomes ($8,400) for the best FP/DB against single-high coverage at 0.55. Goff’s 0.39 FP/DB against zone coverage is top three among all QBs with at least 100 dropbacks this year. LV deploys zone coverage at a 74% rate and single-high at a 52% rate:

WR Amon-Ra St. Brown ($8,200) is priced expensively after coming off a 100+ yard game while trailing last week. Don’t let that distract you from the fact that he still owns >40% of the team’s yards while tied or leading this season:

Quick Hits

Panthers defense plays zone coverage at the 2nd-highest rate in the NFL (83%)

• WR Nico Collins ($5,500) has the 2nd-highest YPRR vs zone coverage among 135 qualifiers this season (3.33)

• CAR is top 10 in defensive single-high looks (59%)

• Collins averages 0.91 FP/RR vs single-high, 2nd in the NFL among 147 qualifiers

Steelers defense allows the highest pass rate to opposing offenses over the middle

• WR Christian Kirk ($5,900) leads the team in slot targets (38)

• His 2.13 slot YPRR is the 4th-highest out of 26 qualifiers with 100+ slot routes this year

Jaguars defense allows the highest neutral pass rate among defenses this year

• WR George Pickens ($5,600) leads the entire NFL with a 44% team share of outside routes ran

• 2.58 wide YPRR is the 4th-highest out of 25 qualifiers with 150+ outside routes this year

Cardinals defense plays the 3rd-most two-high coverage in the NFL (51%)

• TE Mark Andrews ($6,400) has the 4th-highest YPRR vs two-high looks out of 151 qualifiers at 3.57

Steelers defense gives up the highest pass rate over the middle (32%)

• WR Calvin Ridley ($5,800) has zero catches over the middle this year

Packers defense runs single-high the second-most among defenses (68%)

• TE TJ Hockenson ($6,200) and WR KJ Osborn ($4,700) lead the team in targets vs single-high since the injury of Justin Jefferson

• Both have a 2.0+ YPRR against single-high

WR Puka Nacua ($7,900) owns a 3.85 YPRR on plays without QB pressure

• But only 1.30 YPRR when QB Matthew Stafford ($6,600) is pressured

• The Cowboys pressure opposing QBs at the highest rate in the NFL (48%)

QB Jared Goff ($6,400) is tied for the highest FP/DB vs single-high coverage (0.55)

• The Raiders deploy single-high coverage on 52% of their coverage snaps