2023 Week 6 Fantasy Mismatch Report

With Fantasy Points Data — a project we’ve worked on for nearly two years and launched in 2023 — we wanted to answer one big question: what if we tailored all of the data our team has gathered (hand-charted from our team of experts) directly to the fantasy player?

Based on years of playing season-long fantasy, dynasty, and DFS — and using all the charted data out there to build models and try to gain an advantage in a game where the margins are shrinking — we believe we’ve found where we can do things better. That is the Fantasy Points Data Suite.

Using Fantasy Points Data, I’ve identified the biggest mismatches in all of this week’s games in an effort to make your fantasy and wagering decisions easier.

First, a note on some of the tools I’m using here.

Rush Grade

Our “RUSH GRADE” offensive line stat is based simply on a formula measuring an offense’s average yardage before contact on non-QB rush attempts (a catch-all way to eliminate scrambles) versus a defense’s average yards per contact allowed on non-QB rush attempts.

The darker the green, the better the matchup. The darker the red, the worse the matchup.

Pass Grade

Our “PASS GRADE” is a formula developed using “QB Pressure Rate Over Expectation.” It measures how much a quarterback should be expected to face pressure, adjusted for the quarterback’s average time to throw (a quarterback with a 3.0-second aT2T should be expected to be pressured more than one with a 2.0-second aT2T, for instance).

The higher the QBPROE number, the worse it is for an offense, and the better it is for a defense.

The darker the green, the better the matchup. The darker the red, the worse the matchup.

WR/CB Tool

Our WR/CB Matchup Tool is sortable with loads of matchup data.

A note on our process: there are very few situations in the NFL in which one receiver will match up with one corner for the vast majority of his routes. So honestly, WR/CB matchups in the traditional sense are perhaps the most overrated form of fantasy analysis.

We aim to do them better: our process breaks down how many routes a receiver runs from a certain alignment, and assigns a weighted score based on how much that receiver is expected to see a given defender based on those alignments. So it will measure how often we expect a receiver to face all defenders in a matchup, not just one particular defender, and weigh a score by those expected percentages.

If I do believe there will be a “shadow CB” situation, I’ll mention it and break down the matchup.

All data researched here is from the last five weeks, unless otherwise noted. We want to be careful to not overreact to small samples, but also not to create too big a sample as teams change throughout the season.

All times Eastern

Denver at Kansas City (Thu, 8:20 PM)

Chiefs CB Trent McDuffie vs. Broncos WR Jerry Jeudy

It looks like Jeudy could be among the first Broncos to be traded, as their failed Russell Wilson experiment seems to be leading to a fire sale. Well, if Jeudy wants to put good tape out there for potential suitors, this isn’t exactly the matchup I would have hand-picked for him. Jeudy runs 66% of his routes from the slot, and that’s where he’ll find McDuffie on Thursday night. Among 38 defenders with at least 50 coverage snaps and more than 50% of those snaps in the slot, McDuffie has allowed the 7th-fewest yards per route run and the 2nd-fewest PPR fantasy points per coverage snap. No player has put up more than 39 yards on McDuffie this season (Allen Lazard), and only one player has caught more than 1 pass on him — that was Brandon Powell last week for the Vikings, and Powell’s 2 catches in McDuffie’s coverage netted a grand total of 4 yards. Last year, Jeudy ran 29 routes in McDuffie’s primary coverage, and caught just 3 passes for 18 yards in two games, though he did score a 5-yard TD. McDuffie might be the league’s premier slot defender, so don’t expect a huge performance from Jeudy in this one… at least when he’s lined up in the slot.

Baltimore vs. Tennessee (Sun, 9:30 AM, London)

Titans WR DeAndre Hopkins vs. Ravens CB Brandon Stephens

Here’s what our Scott Barrett wrote about Hopkins, who was dealing with a “mild” high ankle sprain since Week 1, in this week’s Everything Report: “Hopkins looked close to fully back last week – according to one of our film charters, ‘I thought it was the best he looked in over a year.’ He earned a season-high 92% route share, as well as 11 targets (his most since the Week 1 game in which he first injured his ankle). He scored 22.0 fantasy points on 19.6 XFP. Despite possibly being on a snap count prior to last week (75% route share through the first four weeks), Hopkins ranks 7th in target share (28.5%) and 7th in first-read target share (36.5%).” So yes, the Titans are treating Nuk like an Alpha #1 WR, and they really have no choice, with Treylon Burks (knee) hurt yet again. Hopkins moves all around the formation, but he plays LWR on the plurality of his snaps — 46%. That means he’ll draw most of his matchups with Stephens, who lacks change-of-direction ability, and Hopkins can set him up well. Stephens has allowed 21 receptions in his primary coverage, tied for 8th-most among CBs this year. With Tennessee an underdog, I expect Hopkins to be peppered with targets in this one.

Washington at Atlanta (Sun, 1 PM)

Commanders pass rush vs. Falcons OL

The Falcons have our 3rd-worst Pass Grade of the week, but I don’t blame any fantasy players who are hesitant to trust the Commanders defense after an embarrassing performance against the Bears a week ago — they sacked Justin Fields just 3 times (which is a low number for Fields to take), despite pressuring him at a rate of 11.31% above expectation (which is where our Pass Grade comes from). The Pass Grade only is supposed to take into account the trenches matchup, so this doesn’t account for the struggles of Washington rookie CB Emmanuel Forbes so far. But if you do want to go back to the well with the Commanders D/ST after last week’s stinker, we have charted Desmond Ridder — himself coming off the best game of his career so far — as having been responsible for 5 sacks on his own this season, 3rd-most in the NFL behind only Zach Wilson and his counterpart in this game, Sam Howell.

Falcons perimeter CBs vs. Commanders outside WRs

Last week against the Bears, the Commanders had a horrendous gameplan. Though they fell behind big early, OC Eric Bieniemy simply cannot have sack-magnet QB Sam Howell drop back 55 straight times without a designed run. And for our game, perhaps most alarmingly, just 10 targets of Howell’s absurd 51 throws were directed at Terry McLaurin and Jahan Dotson — 5 each. And this week, McLaurin and Dotson draw one of the most underrated secondaries in the NFL. Well, at least, Jeff Okudah is underrated. Acquired from the Lions this off-season, Okudah has been one of the stingiest corners in the NFL per our metrics — he’s allowed just 0.06 PPR FP/coverage snap, 3rd-fewest among all CBs with 25 or more coverage snaps. On 65 coverage snaps, we have Okudah as having surrendered just 2 catches for 22 yards… total. Meanwhile, AJ Terrell has had respect on his name for a couple years now, and though he’s given up 172 yards and a score this year, no receiver has caught more than 2 passes for 38 yards in Terrell’s coverage (that being former teammate Calvin Ridley). McLaurin and especially Dotson have been disappointments for fantasy, and this week’s matchup suggests Howell will avoid challenging outside the numbers again.

Minnesota at Chicago (Sun, 1 PM)

Vikings OL vs. Bears pass rush

Look, I just write about the numbers here, and our numbers tell me the Vikings have our #5 Pass Grade of the week. And the Pass Grade, in theory, does measure just trench-on-trench, but football is not a game that can be separated into binaries the way a baseball game can. And you have to imagine at least some of the -1.27% QBPROE the Vikings have allowed up front this year has to do with the fact that Justin Jefferson is an all-timer at the WR position. Cousins has a pretty long average time to throw this year — 2.66 — 11th-longest of 34 qualified QBs. And on his first read, Cousins’ 2.47 aT2T is tied for the 6th-longest. (All the “slower” QBs are known for their mobility: Anthony Richardson, Justin Fields, Deshaun Watson, Russell Wilson, Jalen Hurts.) Before his injury last week, Jefferson was being targeted as a first read on a top-5 rate in the NFL, so this offense is going to have to fundamentally change with Jefferson (hamstring) on IR. While I don’t think the Bears’ pass rush is any good, I wouldn’t be surprised if they’re able to get after Kirkie a little more than our metrics suggest they will.

Bears WR DJ Moore vs. Vikings CB Byron Murphy

I’m not sure how “real” this two-game surge from Justin Fields is, but I do know that DJ Moore is a stud, and there’s no reason to sit him this week, given his looming matchup. Moore is the Bears’ LWR the majority of the time, and while Murphy has played almost exclusively LCB this year, the Vikings’ primary RCB, Akayleb Evans, is dealing with a knee injury and looks to be truly questionable. If he misses, our projection is Mekhi Blackmon will play left corner, and Murphy will slide to the right. On the season, Murphy’s 243 receiving yards allowed are 16th-most of all corners. It’s a matchup Moore should win often.

Seattle at Cincinnati (Sun, 1 PM)

Seahawks DL vs. Bengals OL in the run game

Maybe this is just who Joe Mixon is? The Bengals veteran RB is once again top-10 in half-PPR XFP (16.7), but is just 24th in FPG (10.7). Last year, he was 2nd in XFP and 8th in FPG. His last year meeting expectations was in 2021, when he was 10th in XFP but 4th in FPG. That could make some sense, as we expect RBs to wear down and become less efficient with age. But the absolutely massive caveat for the first four weeks of the 2023 season is how broken the Bengals’ offense was, with QB Joe Burrow dealing with a calf injury and showcasing zero mobility. That changed in Week 5’s highly encouraging win over the Cardinals. While Ja’Marr Chase was the star for Cincinnati, Mixon was an XFP gawd — 31.8, to lead all RBs last week. Of course, in true Mixon fashion, he turned that incredible role into just 11.4 actual FP. Overall, though, I am encouraged by Mixon’s role remaining massive and the Bengals’ offense looking good for the first time this season. I am NOT encouraged with the fact that the Bengals draw our 3rd-worst Rush Grade of the week, against a Seahawk defense giving up a 2nd-fewest 0.42 aYBC/A this year. The Seahawks have held three of their four opponents below 2.7 YPC on non-scramble runs this year, and have allowed no opponents to get to 4.0 YPC.

San Francisco at Cleveland (Sun, 1 PM)

Browns DL vs. 49ers OL in the run game

The premier defense vs. offense matchup in the 1 PM slate of games — and perhaps from the entire weekend — is the Browns’ fantastic front seven against the 49ers’ elite attack. And it goes to show how dominant Cleveland has been that San Francisco, the same San Francisco with Christian McCaffrey in its employ, features our 4th-worst Rush Grade of the week. The Browns have surrendered a minuscule 0.23 aYBC/A this year, nearly half the next-best defense (Seattle, 0.42). San Francisco is 9th-best offensively in that department (1.58), but it’s still a nasty matchup for any run game. The Browns’ defensive prowess includes surrendering just 26 yards on 15 carries on non-scramble runs to the Titans in Week 3, including contacting their runners, on average, nearly a full yard behind the line of scrimmage. So they’ve held a great run game in check. But they showed some dents in the armor against Baltimore in Week 4 (Lamar Jackson designed runs help that), and the 49ers are generally a nasty run game to face given the concepts they run so fluidly. (The Browns have defended Gap concepts better than Zone concepts so far this year, and the Niners are a heavy Zone team.) It’s not like you’re benching CMC, but he did just have his worst game before contact last week against the Cowboys — 0.79 YBC/A.

49ers DL vs. Browns OL in the run game

The Browns feature our 5th-worst Rush Grade of the week in Week 6 — the Niners’ nasty defense has been excellent on the ground this year. None of their five opponents have reached 75 rush yards on non-scramble runs this year, and they just had their best game of the year in Week 5, limiting Cowboys runners to 0.63 YBC/A. The Browns’ backfield might have more of a split than we would have liked between Jerome Ford, Kareem Hunt, and Pierre Strong in Week 5 against the Ravens, but we also have to acknowledge the Browns ran a non-functional offense with rookie Dorian Thompson-Robinson out there. DTR was overmatched, and if Deshaun Watson (shoulder) can’t play again this week, the Browns will reportedly go to vet PJ Walker. That will likely make their offense better… but this matchup isn’t for the faint of heart, and the Browns have a couple of interior OL injuries with C Ethan Pocic and LG Joel Bitonio to watch. I’m still downgrading Ford, especially if Watson doesn’t go.

Browns pass rush vs. 49ers OL

There seems to be a good chance we won’t see both of these teams at full strength, with the Browns dealing with multiple injuries offensively, most notably QB Deshaun Watson (shoulder). But can the 49ers’ offense — which is absolutely humming — come through in a second consecutive difficult matchup? They feature our 5th-worst Pass Grade of the week, as the Browns’ 11.02% QBPROE is 3rd-highest in the league (it looks like Myles Garrett will play through a minor injury). What’s notable is Brock Purdy’s passer rating from a clean pocket this year is 131.7… best in the NFL. His YPA when kept clean is 10.60… best in the NFL. His CPOE is 10.2%…. Second-best in the NFL (to Jared Goff). Purdy’s numbers when under pressure, though better than most of his peers, do dip off, as one might expect. His passer rating falls to 97.2 (4th-best), his YPA falls to 16th-best (6.33), and his CPOE falls to -6.8% (16th-best). His turnover-worthy throw percentage also climbs to a 12th-highest 5.0% when under pressure, compared to a 4th-lowest 1.0% when kept clean. To me, the numbers say — undoubtedly — Purdy is playing well. But under pressure, he looks a tiny bit more like the Day 3 prospect he was to the MVP candidate he currently is.

New Orleans at Houston (Sun, 1 PM)

Saints DL vs. Texans OL in the run game

No offensive line has been worse at creating functional space in the run game than Houston’s, which is why the Texans check in with our worst Rush Grade of the week. Through five weeks of the 2023 NFL season, Houston has generated 0.52 aYBC/A on the ground. It’s entirely possible that RB Dameon Pierce is to blame for much of his inefficiency — he hasn’t had a single game this year in which he averaged 1.0 yards before contact per rush attempt, and he’s probably a poor fit for the Texans’ zone scheme — but it is certainly worth noting that his best game in that department came in Week 5, when he averaged 0.95 YBC/A… coinciding with the returns of LT Laremy Tunsil and LG Tytus Howard to the lineup. Unfortunately for Pierce, he draws a difficult matchup with the Saints, whose 0.88 aYBC/A allowed is a bottom-five number in the NFL. New Orleans has not allowed a single team to go over 100 yards on non-scramble runs this year. It would be a surprise if the Texans were the first.

Texans OL vs. Saints pass rush

So, the Texans feature our worst Rush Grade of the week… but our #2 Pass Grade of the week. I find this fascinating because, perhaps in an effort to not put too much on the plate of rookie QB CJ Stroud, the Texans are running a perfectly neutral offense, adjusted for gamescript — they have a 0.2% pass rate over expectation, so they’re basically throwing the ball exactly when you’d expect them to, and running it when you’d expect them to. That could well be contributing to Dameon Pierce’s struggles, as mentioned above, but given how well Stroud has played, perhaps the Texans should change something up. They’ve gotten LT Laremy Tunsil and LG Tytus Howard back from injuries, and this week, they get a Saints pass rush that has a league-worst -3.91% pressure rate over expectation. Let Stroud cook! Check the status of WR Tank Dell (concussion), but this could be a solid spot for Stroud to go through his progressions and deliver the football.

Indianapolis at Jacksonville (Sun, 1 PM)

Colts OL vs. Jaguars DL in the run game

The Colts got Jonathan Taylor back last week… only to see Zack Moss go absolutely nuts against the Titans’ typically stout run defense. For just the fourth time since the start of 2021 — and the first in 2023 — the Titans surrendered more than 100 yards on non-scramble runs in Week 5, with Moss being the first individual 100-yard rusher against them since Saquon Barkley in Week 1 last season. So it should come as little surprise that Indy’s performance was enough to get the Colts to rank as our #5 Rush Grade of the week here, against the (potentially jet-lagged) Jags. Funnily enough, this Jags team has also been good against the run, allowing just one 100-yard team rushing performance, while surrendering under 0.6 YBC/A in three of five games. One of those such games came against the Colts in Week 1… when Indy had neither Taylor nor Moss, while Deon Jackson had maybe the single worst RB performance of the year. I still anticipate a Moss/Taylor split, with a little bit more Taylor than we saw last week.

Carolina at Miami (Sun, 1 PM)

Dolphins OL vs. Panthers DL in the run game

The Dolphins feature our highest rush grade of the week, as Miami is the only team in the NFL averaging 3.0 or more aYBC/A, while the Panthers are surrendering a 5th-most 1.90 aYBC/A. Of course, Miami is an extreme outlier in this department, because rookie De’Von Achane (knee) is averaging 6.50 yards before contact himself. Removing Achane from the equation here paints a much different picture for this matchup. Now, it’s still great for Raheem Mostert and — potentially — Jeff Wilson. Carolina has surrendered at least 130 non-scramble rush yards in every game this season, which puts Mostert squarely on the RB1 radar this week. But Achane managers can only sigh at his being absent in a potential blow-up spot.

Dolphins OL vs. Panthers pass rush

For the first time this season, we have a team with our top Rush and Pass Grade of the week. It’s Miami, and Mike McDaniel should be able to do whatever he wants against an overmatched Panthers team. That bears out in the inflated point spread — 13.5 points — and I wonder if, with De’Von Achane out, Miami will come out throwing with Tua Tagovailoa. The Panthers’ pass rush just had its best day of the season in Week 5 against the Lions, but Carolina still features the third-lowest QBPROE in the league — -3.45%, ahead of just the Saints and Giants. There is one saving grace for the Panthers — despite their below-average rate of pressure, their average time to pressure is 2.21… which is fastest in the NFL. So when they do get home, they get there quickly. And Tua’s turnover-worthy throw rate of 10.0% when pressured is 2nd-highest in the NFL. Of course, Tua’s average time to throw of 2.21 is the fastest of all QBs. So the Panthers will need to make sure to capitalize on the opportunities they do get.

Dolphins pass rush vs. Panthers OL

The Panthers’ offense looks totally broken, and coach Frank Reich, uh, seems to be low-key confirming that owner David Tepper was the driving force behind selecting Bryce Young over Reich’s purported favorite QB in this class, CJ Stroud? (See below.) Well, the Panthers’ bed is more than made at this point, and Reich’s focus needs to be on getting Young as comfortable as he can be. Miami’s had the 4th-best pass rush in terms of pressure rate over expectation so far this year (10.46%), and they obviously got after Daniel Jones last week despite missing their best rusher, EDGE Jaelan Phillips (oblique). The Panthers could also be down starting G Chandler Zavala, who was carted off last week with a neck injury. Young has been atrocious under pressure — he has a 44.3 passer rating and 2.98 yards per pass attempt when under pressure — only Joe Burrow (1.27) averages a lower YPA when under pressure. Unfortunately, it looks like Young will be under pressure quite a bit in this one.

New England at Last Vegas (Sun, 4:05 PM)

Raiders OL vs. Patriots pass rush

How bad are things for the Patriots when their defense is showing up as a positive matchup for an offense that isn’t even that good? Though, to be fair, the Raiders’ offensive line has done a good job protecting its QBs — their -3.74% QBPROE is 5th-best in the NFL. And the Patriots have become a much easier matchup in recent weeks, with EDGE Matthew Judon and CB Christian Gonzalez suffering serious injuries. The Raiders feature our #4 Pass Grade of the week, so they two guys they actually throw the ball to — Davante Adams and Jakobi Meyers — should produce, with Jimmy Garoppolo likely having time to throw in this REVENGE GAME.

Arizona at LA Rams (Sun, 4:25 PM)

Cardinals OL vs. Rams DL in the run game

The Cardinals have our #2 Rush Grade of the week, so our top two matchups each feature a club with an injured running back… so by our metrics, the whole “RBs Don’t Matter” deal will be put to the test. Arizona’s 2.66 aYBC/A is second to only the Dolphins, but James Conner (knee) has been far better than other Cardinals RBs in that department, averaging 2.31 YBC/A (big designed runs by QB Josh Dobbs and WR Rondale Moore also contribute to the metric). The back we think will take the most work in Conner’s absence is rookie Emari Demercado, a stocky rookie UDFA out of TCU, where he backed up Kendre Miller. The rookie stepped into the lineup and delivered 10/45/1 rushing and a 12-yard catch on 3 targets for 12.7 FP in a loss to the Bengals. Demercado has been the top back behind Conner since Keaontay Ingram (neck) picked up a neck injury — he’s missed the last two games — and he played well enough to be the top option with Conner out. But so far this year, Demercado is averaging just 0.57 yards before contact per run, less than 25% of Conner. By the small-sample metrics, he’ll be easier for the Rams to stuff than Conner would have been.

Rams WRs vs. Cardinals CBs

Because Sean McVay is smart, he did what we actually thought he would last week — he got both Puka Nacua and Cooper Kupp on the field at the same time despite Nacua having played Kupp’s move-Z role through the first four weeks of the season. Kupp played the majority of his routes in the slot in Week 5, while Nacua continued to operate all over. I expect Kupp and Nacua to feast this week against the Cards. First of all, Arizona RCB Marco Wilson has surrendered 390 yards in his primary coverage this year, second only to struggling Commanders rookie Emmanuel Forbes. Moreover, slot CB Antonio Hamilton — filling in for the suspended Jalen Thompson — has allowed 0.39 FP/coverage snap, 4th-most among all players with 25 or more coverage snaps who have played more than half their snaps in the slot. This is a matchup for “Puka Nacooper” (you like that?) to go nuclear. I love them both for DFS, especially Kupp.

Philadelphia at NY Jets (Sun, 4:25 PM)

Eagles OL vs. Jets DL in the run game

No Cam Jurgens? No problem. The Eagles’ offensive line continued to have a great season in Week 5 without their starting right guard, who is on IR with a foot injury. Sua Opeta filled in, and Philly managed to keep Aaron Donald at bay while D’Andre Swift had another strong game on the ground — 17 carries for 70 yards. Of course, the Eagles’ run game, for the first time all year, featured Jalen Hurts as a major factor in both the designed run game and on scrambles — as I mentioned here last week, I thought Hurts was deliberately avoiding contact at the behest of coaches prior to Week 5. All put together, the Eagles feature our #4 Rush Grade of the week against what I would consider a pretty good Jets front. New York has allowed 100+ yards on non-scramble runs in three of five games this year, but has also allowed under 1.00 YPC on such runs in three of five games, as well. It’s just that the Eagles — third in the NFL at 2.37 aYBC/A — can run on anyone.

Detroit at Tampa Bay (Sun, 4:25 PM)

Lions DL vs. Bucs OL in the run game

Rachaad White has been one of the NFL’s true bell cows so far, playing 77.3% of the Bucs’ offensive snaps (7th-most among RBs), running a route on 60.8% of their dropbacks (4th-most among RBs), and is 20th in XFP per game (14.1). He’s also played 90.5% of the Buccaneers’ inside-10 snaps, tied for 5th among RBs. He’s also had a string of brutal matchups on the ground, including the Saints and Eagles, two of the best run defenses in the league. Unfortunately, this matchup doesn’t get much easier for him. The Lions have held each of their five opponents under 100 non-scramble rushing yards this season, and three of their five opponents below 50. The Lions are one of five teams in the NFL giving up less than 1.0 aYBC/A, so if White is going to get it done for fantasy this week, it’s going to have to come via his admittedly excellent volume.

SHADOW ALERT! Lions CB Cameron Sutton vs. Bucs WR Mike Evans

Obviously, the big caveat here is if Evans — who is currently dealing with a hamstring injury — is even going to play in this game. But if he does, we think there’s a good chance Sutton shadows him based on what he did against Drake London in Week 4, matching London on 81% of his routes (and surrendering just 1 catch for 28 yards in his coverage). Unfortunately, the Lions’ secondary took a big hit, when Emmanuel Moseley suffered a torn ACL in Week 5… his first game back from a season-ending injury he suffered last year. So it’ll be Sutton and Jerry Jacobs on the perimeter yet again, and Sutton is the guy Detroit mostly trusts with their tougher matchups. It’s not exactly a brutal matchup for Evans — Sutton has given up the 19th-most receiving yards among CBs with 50 or more coverage snaps, and has allowed a 116.9 passer rating when targeted. His 1.15 YPRR allowed and 0.22 PPR FP/coverage snap surrendered are both better, but also middle of the road. But, of course, Evans is dinged up, and might not even go.

NY Giants at Buffalo (Sun, 8:20 PM)

Bills OL vs. Giants DL in the run game

Buffalo features our #3 Rush Grade of the week, and it will be interesting to see if the Bills can get James Cook going after two straight “down” games carrying the ball. Cook’s carried the ball just 17 times for 25 yards the last two weeks, after opening the season looking like a legitimate league winner — 44/267 rushing over his first three games. The good news is Cook’s snap share went back up to 62% in Week 5’s loss to the Jaguars, after falling to a season-low 40% in Week 4 against Miami. The further good news is that the Giants are giving up a league-high 2.31 aYBC/A on the ground, though that’s heavily skewed by an absurd 6.17 number from Week 5 against Miami. Nonetheless, if using just Weeks 1-4 data, Buffalo would still feature the #4 Rush Grade of the week, so our metrics view this as an exploitable matchup anyway. Will Cook bounce back, or will Latavius Murray and Damien Harris get the closing work with the Bills two-TD favorites? I’m firing up Cook as an RB2, personally.

Bills OL vs. Giants pass rush

This is looking like a game in which the Bills will be able to name their score. The Giants’ pass rush is poor, with a 2nd-worst -3.52% QBPROE, and EDGE Azeez Ojulari is dealing with an ankle injury, which leaves his status in question for this weekend. And that injury isn’t even taken into account with the fact that the Bills have our #3 Pass Grade of the week. Though the Bills, for at least the first three weeks, had a really strong run game with RB James Cook, they’re a pass-first team at heart with Josh Allen. The Bills have the NFL’s third-highest pass rate over expectation (8.2%), and judging by the numbers, Allen will have time to do his taxes in the pocket. Start Stefon Diggs and Gabe Davis with conviction.

Bills pass rush vs. Giants OL

If you didn’t expect to see this here… well … I DON’T KNOW WHAT TO TELL YA, BUD! The Giants have our worst Pass Grade of the week, continue to have injuries on the offensive line — including star LT Andrew Thomas — and QB Daniel Jones (neck) might not play in this one either. It’s lining up to be yet another example of why the Giants should be banned from national TV until further notice. Our next Giants primetime game isn’t until Week 14, at least … and that’s a Monday night game that can be flexed out, per the new league rules.

SHADOW ALERT! Giants CB Adoree’ Jackson vs. Bills WR Stefon Diggs

Jackson has lined up across from three different wide receivers 50% of the time or more this year — Tyreek Hill, Tyler Lockett, and CeeDee Lamb. What all three receivers have in common is they’re either primary slot receivers, or move inside often. Diggs is perhaps the most versatile receiver in football — he plays RWR, LWR, and slot WR about one-third of the time each. And Jackson is one of the few shadow corners in the NFL who will also go into the slot. Jackson’s a good corner, but the matchup doesn’t scare me — Jackson’s given up the 14th-most receiving yards of any CB in football, has surrendered the 17th-most PPR FP/coverage snap, and a 12th-most yards per route run. The Giants will trust Jackson with matching up on Diggs, but I expect Jackson is losing some sleep over the battle. If I have Diggs for fantasy, I’m surely not losing any.

Bills CB Taron Johnson vs. Giants WR Wan’Dale Robinson

I’ve spent way more time picking on the Giants this week than I’d like to, but look, I’m just reporting on the numbers! Robinson was a popular waiver wire pickup last week, and for good reason — he offers some explosiveness in the short area, which is good for the Giants because they can’t protect their QBs long enough to create explosive plays down the field. Unfortunately this week, Robinson — who runs 80% of his routes from the slot — will match up most of the time on Johnson, one of the best slot defenders in the NFL. Johnson has surrendered a minuscule 0.05 FP/coverage snap this year, easily the best of all primary slot defenders. Daniel Jones or Tyrod Taylor, I’m not terribly beaned up to use Robinson (if he clears concussion protocol).

Dallas at LA Chargers (Mon, 8:15 PM)

Cowboys pass rush vs. Chargers OL

The Cowboys’ vaunted pass rush came into Week 5 with a QBPROE of 27.18%, which was more than double the next-highest rate in the NFL (San Francisco, 11.52%). Well, the 49ers embarrassed the Cowboys on Sunday Night Football last week, and Brock Purdy had plenty of time to throw for his 4 TD, with the Cowboys having their first negative QBPROE of the year. While Kyle Shanahan is a scheme master, and we obviously can’t expect the Chargers to do the same things he did, you know Kellen Moore is looking forward to this revenge game. Nonetheless, the metrics list this as our 2nd-worst Pass Grade of the week. Pressuring Justin Herbert is critical for the Cowboys — while Herbert’s passer rating is over 100 both with and without pressure, his completion percentage falls from 77.8% when kept clean to 51.2% when pressured, and his YPA goes from 7.93 to 6.76. This might be the single battle I’m looking forward to watching most all weekend.