Attention all fantasy football trade addicts: this article is for you. Here, I’ll be re-ranking the top 50 most valuable players each week. You can use these rankings and writeups to make informed roster and trade decisions heading into Week 2.
It’s important not to overreact to Week 1, as our limited sample is normally less predictive than last season’s data or our preseason analysis. However, we can still catch on to unexpected usage trends or confirm our previous suspicions. In these cases, we also must not underreact.
In parentheses, you’ll find the player’s (positive) or (negative) movement from the week before. This week, some of these will simply reflect my disagreements with preseason ADP, but especially as we go forward, you’ll be able to track the changes to each player’s stock easily.
1. Justin Jefferson
WR, MIN (0)
Jefferson averaged 3.41 YPRR (would have ranked 1st last year) on his usual top-5 route volume, while Minnesota finished top-3 in pass rate over expectation.
2. Tyreek Hill
WR, MIA (+4 spots gained)
Hill forced a position-leading 6 missed tackles on his way to 44.5 PPR points, which was the best performance by a WR since Stefon Diggs in Week 2 of 2022.
3. Christian McCaffrey
RB, SF (0)
Fears of a committee backfield alongside Elijah Mitchell appear to have been unfounded after McCaffrey logged an 84.8% snap share in an uncompetitive Week 1 game. This bodes extremely well for McCaffrey's workload going forward, as he beat that mark only once with the 49ers last season. He tacked on a 100% snap share in the red zone.
4. Ja'Marr Chase
WR, CIN (-2 spots lost)
A pedestrian result, but Chase saw 18.0 XFP (WR12) in a game the Bengals dropped back only 34 times — 20.2% below their 2022 average.
5. Travis Kelce
TE, KC (0)
No Chiefs player saw above a 17.6% first read share in Kelce's absence — a sign of an offense desperate for its alpha to return.
6. Tony Pollard
RB, DAL (+9)
Pollard received all 6 of the Cowboys' carries inside the 10-yard line (already half of his 2022 total) and was the only RB the Cowboys targeted in the passing game.
7. A.J. Brown
WR, PHI (+12)
A 59.8% air yards share (WR2) paired with the team's 9.3% pass rate over expectation (6th) compared to last year's 0.4%. I'm bullish even if DeVonta Smith out-scored him in Week 1.
8. Austin Ekeler
RB, LAC (-4)
Ekeler saw the best volume of any RB in Week 1 (23.7 XFP), but is now dealing with an ankle injury, causing him to drop four spots in my rankings.
9. Stefon Diggs
WR, BUF (+2)
There’s little to complain about from Diggs, who finished top-5 in fantasy points and XFP on a 90% route share — a mark he crested only four times last season.
10. Amon-Ra St. Brown
WR, DET (+11)
The Sun God averaged an insane 3.43 YPRR when lined up out wide, which accounted for 45.2% of his routes last Thursday, trending up from 40.5% in 2022.
11. Davante Adams
WR, LV (-3)
Though Jakobi Meyers also appears to be a big part of this offense, he's expected to miss time with a concussion — while Adams still posted a 43.8% first read target share (WR3) alongside him, despite picking up a minor injury and facing off against shutdown CB Patrick Surtain for the near-entirety of Week 1.
12. Bijan Robinson
RB, ATL (-5)
Robinson saw zero carries inside the 10-yard line to Tyler Allgeier's 4, but ran a route on 77.3% of team dropbacks and commanded a 33.3% target share.
13. Josh Jacobs
RB, LV (+5)
Jacobs has held on to one of the best roles in the league, seeing five carries inside the 10-yard line (RB2) and commanding 87.1% of his backfield's XFP (RB2).
14. Saquon Barkley
RB, NYG (-5)
In the first half, before the game was entirely out of hand, Barkley played on 86.1% of the snaps (would have ranked first among all RBs) and earned a 23.1% target share (would have ranked 2nd).
15. CeeDee Lamb
WR, DAL (+1)
Lamb ran just 20 routes due to game script, but with the Cowboys' defense so dominant, there's some slight concern that could be a theme this year. Still, he ranked top-3 in YPRR.
16. Calvin Ridley
WR, JAX (+22)
Ridley's 21.8 XFP and a 36.0% first read target share would have ranked 1st and 5th among WRs last year. Christian Kirk ran only one route to Ridley's 10 in 12-personnel.
17. Nick Chubb
RB, CLE (-4)
Despite his four targets, Chubb ran a route on just 25.7% of Cleveland's dropbacks (RB44), splitting them evenly with Jerome Ford.
18. Derrick Henry
RB, TEN (-8)
Henry trailed teammate Tyjae Spears in snaps (36 to 28) and routes (16 to 7) despite the game being within one score for its entire duration. It seems this will be far more of a committee than we’ve become accustomed to with Henry, even if he’s still likely to rack up 20-plus touches every week.
19. Travis Etienne Jr.
RB, JAX (+7)
Etienne ran a route on 68.6% of team dropbacks, the highest mark of his career. He surpassed a 50% route share only three times last year. His 14.8% target share was also a career-high.
20. DeVonta Smith
WR, PHI (+10)
Smith's 30.3% target share was good for WR10 on the week and topped A.J. Brown.
21. Chris Olave
WR, NO (+7)
Along with his usual elite air yardage totals (136 in Week 1, WR8), Olave ran 3 routes out of the backfield and was targeted on two of them. These types of "gimme" looks should raise Olave's weekly floor this year.
22. Tee Higgins
WR, CIN (+5)
Higgins' usage was excellent, seeing 59.3% of the Bengals' air yards (WR3) and 34.8% of their first read targets (WR15), only one fewer than Ja'Marr Chase. He'll see more than three catchable targets next week.
23. Jaylen Waddle
WR, MIA (+2)
Waddle saw five or fewer targets in 9 of his 17 games in 2022, just like he did on Sunday. He finished as the WR12 in FPG last year regardless. Remain calm.
24. Jalen Hurts
QB, PHI (-2)
The Eagles ranked 2nd in first read throw rate in 2022 but 5th-worst in Week 1. 38 dropbacks were a silver lining, so I'll give new OC Brian Johnson a few weeks to work out the play-calling kinks.
25. Patrick Mahomes II
QB, KC (-13)
Mahomes threw deep on 17.9% of his attempts (2nd-most among QBs) and finished as the QB7 in fantasy points on the week despite missing the player who accounted for 25% of his passing yards last year.
26. Josh Allen
QB, BUF (-6)
9.8% of Allen's throws were turnover-worthy, behind only Ryan Tannehill and Josh Dobbs.
27. Keenan Allen
WR, LAC (+12)
Allen's 82.5% route share and 27.3% target share were by far team-highs, even with 3 additional targets being negated due to penalty. He also showed off youthful athleticism by forcing three missed tackles (WR3).
28. Joe Mixon
RB, CIN (-5)
Mixon captured 79.1% of his backfield's XFP (RB6) but ceded more routes to Chris Evans and Trayveon Williams than we'd like.
29. Mark Andrews
TE, BAL (+7)
The Ravens had a +2.7% pass rate over expectation in Week 1 (11th) compared to -3.7% last year (26th). It's early, but an elevated pass rate under new OC Todd Monken would be a victory in itself for Andrews.
30. Rhamondre Stevenson
RB, NE (+7)
Stevenson and Elliott saw the same number of targets (6), with all of Elliott's and only 2 of Stevenson's coming on designed reads. The Patriots were clearly determined to enforce a committee, but perhaps Stevenson sees more work when he's not dealing with a stomach bug.
31. Christian Watson
WR, GB (+15)
Similarly to Kelce and the Chiefs, no Packers player saw 20% of the team's first read targets despite Jordan Love throwing to his first read 77.8% of the time (QB3) and averaging 9.07 YPA (QB3). If the offense worked this well without a target dominator, imagine how explosive they'll be with Watson in the fold.
32. Lamar Jackson
QB, BAL (-1)
I see the pass rate as a positive, as mentioned with Andrews, but if I'm slightly concerned about anything, it's that Jackson handled none of the team's six rush attempts in the red zone, and that his only designed rush attempt was a QB sneak for one yard.
33. Jahmyr Gibbs
RB, DET (0)
Gibbs forced an insane seven missed tackles on his nine touches. The Lions will target their backfield a lot more than the 5.7% rate we saw from them in Week 1 (it was 19.6% in 2022).
34. Kenneth Walker III
RB, SEA (+16)
Walker saw 74.5% of backfield XFP (RB11) thanks to a 51.7% route share (RB9), which would have been his 4th-highest single-game mark last season.
35. Breece Hall
RB, NYJ (+13)
106 of Hall's 127 rushing yards came after contact. If he continues to look as explosive as he did Monday, his 35.7% team rush attempt share should only grow as the season progresses and he gets healthier.
36. DK Metcalf
WR, SEA (-12)
Though Jaxon Smith-Njigba saw as many targets (5), Metcalf clearly led in first read target share (28.6%) and air yards share (57.2%, WR5).
37. T.J. Hockenson
TE, MIN (+6)
Hockenson remained the Vikings' clear 2nd option in the passing game, even leading the team with a 0.26 targets per route run rate. He's one of very few TEs that can be trusted weekly.
38. Brandon Aiyuk
WR, SF (+35)
Last season, Aiyuk ranked 11th in fantasy points per route run against man coverage and led the 49ers' receivers in most stats following Christian McCaffrey's arrival in Week 7. He finished top-12 in air yards (117) in Week 1. Aiyuk’s usage, production, and fantasy stock continue to climb post-McCaffrey, while Samuel’s continues to fall.
39. Alexander Mattison
RB, MIN (+15)
Though this is a pass-first team, Mattison commanded 86.4% of backfield XFP (RB4) and surprisingly ran a route on 48.9% of team dropbacks (RB13).
40. DeAndre Hopkins
WR, TEN (+7)
Hopkins finished top 5 in targets and target share this week, but I would not expect the Titans to maintain a +1.5% pass rate over expectation, considering they ranked 4th-lowest last season.
41. Joe Burrow
QB, CIN (-7)
Burrow faced the second-fastest time-to-pressure (2.00 seconds) and dropped back only 33 times, both of which should be corrected in the weeks to come.
42. Justin Herbert
QB, LAC (0)
Herbert threw deep on 12.1% of his attempts (QB11) after ranking as the QB26 in that stat in 2022.
43. James Cook
RB, BUF (+18)
Cook ran the 6th-most routes of any RB (24) while playing clearly ahead of Damien Harris, as was reported all offseason. Cook’s 80% carry share was higher than even I expected.
44. Darren Waller
TE, NYG (+1)
Waller was the only Giants WR/TE to see more than one target in the first half (before the game completely slipped away), putting up a 38.5% target share. The Giants were under pressure on a whopping 70.5% of their dropbacks, by far the most in the NFL in Week 1. I need to see more before panicking, though Waller’s health will always be in question.
45. James Conner
RB, ARI (+12)
Conner commanded a massive 86.9% of the Cardinals' backfield XFP (RB3). Kyler Murray’s return can’t come soon enough.
46. Aaron Jones
RB, GB (-14)
Jones scored twice despite seeing only one of four team carries inside the 10-yard line. He saw only 17.6% of team goal-line attempts in 2022.
47. Amari Cooper
WR, CLE (-6)
While Elijah Moore saw an identical target share (24.1%) and ran more routes than Cooper (30 to 24), Cooper has the downfield role locked up with his 16.4 aDOT.
48. Trevor Lawrence
QB, JAC (+12)
The Jaguars offense hummed along well, with Lawrence's 2.18-second time-to-throw ranking 2nd-fastest and his 78.1% first-read throw rate topping his league-leading 75.0% mark from last season. Adding a true alpha in Calvin Ridley can only mean good things going forward.
49. Anthony Richardson
QB, IND (+76)
6 designed rush attempts ranked 2nd among all QBs, and Richardson nearly had a 2nd rushing TD. A positive pass rate over expectation (5.0%) suggests major upside for volume through the air as well.
50. Jerry Jeudy
WR, DEN (+25)
Trending toward playing in Week 2 or 3, with the Broncos already shorthanded at WR and now at TE with the injury to Greg Dulcich.
Just outside the top-50
Cooper Kupp, Javonte Williams, Miles Sanders, Rachaad White, Garrett Wilson, Justin Fields
Biggest Risers and Recommendations
Anthony Richardson, QB, IND (+76 spots gained) – Buy/Hold, because most managers in your league are unlikely to value a rookie QB as highly as I am so quickly. But seriously, a mobile QB willing to drop back often in a Shane Steichen offense is fantasy gold.
Brandon Aiyuk, WR, SF (+35) – Hold, as he may prove tough to acquire after a 32.9 PPR performance, but his usage and his role in this offense are for real. I’d still trade any player I have ranked below him in order to acquire him, but I’d imagine that will be difficult to pull off in practice.
Calvin Ridley, WR, JAX (+22) – Hold, because similarly to Aiyuk, his box score total will make it tough to buy at any sort of discount. You should probably still try, though.
James Cook, RB, BUF (+18) – Buy/Hold, since Cook saw a large majority of the work on one of the league’s best offenses but had a pedestrian final tally. Even if goal line work isn’t in the cards, he assuaged any fears about his size and lack of history seeing much volume.
Kenneth Walker III, RB, SEA (+16) – Buy/Hold, as Walker proved me wrong this week with his route share and was the clear lead despite missing time to injury in the preseason. Zach Charbonnet could become more involved eventually, but Walker’s talent shining through and continuing to dominate the volume now seems much more squarely in the range of outcomes.
Furthest Fallers and Recommendations
Aaron Jones, RB, GB (-14 spots lost) – Sell, because Jones’ role was not much different from last year, but he ran hot by scoring multiple TDs on Sunday. Due to this, he had the largest differential between his opportunity and his actual production of any RB. But because of Jones’ history (before 2022) of being a fringe RB1, you can likely swap him for a top-40 player right now.
Patrick Mahomes II, QB, KC (-13) – Hold, because this slide is less of an indictment on Mahomes and more of a reminder that elite QBs were probably drafted too high. Only a few early-round skill position players disappointed us in Week 1, so the opportunity cost of drafting a QB inside the first two rounds was very large.
DK Metcalf, WR, SEA (-12) – Sell/Hold, because fears of Jaxon Smith-Njigba becoming involved immediately proved correct. Metcalf is still a talented player and will have big weeks when the Seahawks do not rank dead last in offensive plays, so you may be better off selling higher after one of those occurs. But that also risks Smith-Njigba breaking out first.
Derrick Henry, RB, TEN (-8) – Sell, because some of your league-mates may not be too alarmed at Henry’s RB14 finish, because he’s King Henry. But his usage in a committee with Tyjae Spears was genuinely concerning, so I’d happily cash him out for a different top-8 RB right now.
Garrett Wilson, WR, NYJ (-34) – Sell, because Wilson averaged just 8.6 FPG with Zach Wilson as his QB last season, compared to 17.3 FPG with other QBs. The Jets ranked dead-last in pass rate over expectation (-13.9%) in Week 1, because they know better than to allow Zach to drop back. Holding him only makes sense if you believe the Jets will sign a free agent, an idea they’ve vehemently shot down so far.
