2023 Week 1 DFS Study Hall

DFS research can be tough. We may not always know what to look for, or where to look for it.

But this article helps solve that problem – by providing some early-week research to give readers solid footing for the upcoming Week 1 DFS slate.

Arizona Cardinals (+7) @ Washington Commanders (O/U: 39.0)

Trends:

• From Week 10 on, James Conner averaged 19.8 FPG last year (behind only Christian McCaffrey).

• Over the last two seasons, Conner averages 15.9 carries, 5.1 targets, and 21.4 FPG (would have ranked 2nd-best last year) when playing on at least 60% of the team’s snaps. Over the last two seasons (regardless of snap share), Conner averages 21.6 FPG (would have ranked 2nd-best last year) in games Kyler Murray either sat out or attempted fewer than 2 passes. Conner is the RB14 (by salary) in Week 1.

• Conner has minimal competition for backfield touches, and HC Jonathan Gannon said he’s “100 percent comfortable” with Conner being Arizona’s bell cow this season.

• Marquise Brown averages just 6.7 FPG in his two career games with Colt McCoy, compared to 12.6 FPG in all other contests. McCoy being cut is good news for the veteran WR.

• By XFP/G per dollar of salary, Marquise Brown is the 2nd-best flex value on the slate (3.19X). The only player ahead of him? Zach Ertz (3.5X), who appears extremely questionable.

• Don’t sleep on Sam Howell’s rushing ability. He posted 1,072 rushing yards and 11 TDs in his final season at North Carolina. In his lone NFL start last year, he earned 9.5 rushing fantasy points – granted, that came on only two rushes.

• Expect better rushing efficiency from Brian Robinson this season…

• Terry McLaurin is dealing with turf toe. He will play, but I’d be surprised if he were 100%. That should mean solid volume for Jahan Dotson (WR35 by salary), who averaged 13.8 DraftKings FPG in his five games with 6 or more targets last season – a mark that ranks 23rd best among slate-eligible WRs, presenting modest value.

Matchups:

• Last season, Arizona was the 2nd-softest schedule-adjusted matchup for opposing RBs (+4.5 FPG), and the single softest schedule-adjusted matchup for opposing TEs (+4.1 FPG).

• Conversely, Washington was the 5th-toughest schedule-adjusted matchup for opposing RBs (-3.4 FPG) and the 3rd-toughest for opposing TEs (-2.6 FPG).

Cincinnati Bengals (-2.5) @ Cleveland Browns (O/U: 47.5)

Trends:

• Two of Joe Burrow’s three worst fantasy outings last season came against Cleveland (15.1 FPG). 17% of Burrow’s interceptions and 15% of Burrow’s sacks in 2022 came in those games.

• To be fair to Burrow, Ja’Marr Chase did miss one of those contests.

• Joe Mixon ranked 2nd among all RBs in XFP/G (18.8), which nearly matches Austin Ekeler’s league-high 19.9 if we exclude the one game he left early due to injury (19.6).

• Mixon ranks 1st among RBs in 2022 XFP/G per dollar of DraftKings salary (2.76). He shouldn’t pull much ownership this week – despite elite projected usage.

• Mixon averages 20.4 FPG in wins, but just 13.3 FPG in losses since 2019. The Bengals’ implied win probability this week is 57%.

• Ja’Marr Chase led the league in targets per game last season (11.2), despite playing through a hairline hip fracture. And he still managed to exceed his usage-implied expectation (XFP) by +0.9 FPG.

• In his rookie season (fully healthy), Chase exceeded his expectation by +3.7 FPG. If we pair that efficiency with his Sophomore year volume, we could loosely project Chase for 24.5 FPG – which would be the 3rd-best receiving season since 2000.

• Prior to last season, Deshaun Watson had finished top-6 in FPG in all four career seasons. If he can ever return to form, he’s worth a shot in GPPs at $6,000 on DK.

• This is a home game for Amari Cooper, who has averaged 16.9 FPG at home (~WR11) and 10.9 FPG on the road (~WR43) since 2017.
• Elijah Moore’s 1.95 YPRR from out wide ranked 23rd overall and 3rd among 2021 rookies, behind only Ja’Marr Chase and Jaylen Waddle (min. 200 routes) in 2021. HC Kevin Stefanski compared Moore to Percy Harvin in August. And he’s a screaming value based on ADP…

• If we exclude Week 1, David Njoku dominated prior to a pair of soft-tissue injuries. He averaged 13.1 FPG (4th-best among TEs), 11.2 XFP/G (8th-best), and 68.5 receiving YPG (2nd-best). He’s the TE11 by salary.

Matchups:

• Cleveland was the 6th-toughest schedule-adjusted matchup for opposing QBs last season (-2.4 FPG), and the 2nd-toughest schedule-adjusted matchup for opposing slot WRs (-4.3 FPG). I’m fully off Tyler Boyd.

• The Bengals were the 7th-toughest schedule-adjusted matchup for opposing RBs last season (-2.0 FPG). I wouldn’t fade the hyper-efficient Nick Chubb based on that, but it is a tougher matchup for him.

Houston Texans (+10) @ Baltimore Ravens (O/U: 43.5)

Trends:

• Nico Collins averaged 15.4 XFP/G in the final nine weeks of 2022 (WR15 over the full season). That number jumped to 16.9 XFP/G (WR8) when Houston allowed more than 24 points. The Ravens are implied for 26.75 points this week.

• Round 3 rookie WR Tank Dell led all NCAA WRs in receptions (199) and yards (2,727), while also ranking 2nd in touchdowns (29) over the last two seasons.

• The last time we saw Todd Monken call plays at the NFL level, his offense averaged 320.3 passing YPG. That ranks 5th-most in NFL history. And he accomplished this feat with a platoon consisting of career journeymen Ryan Fitzpatrick and Jameis Winston.

• Monken’s teams threw on 61.6% of their plays (7th-most) in three career seasons as an NFL play-caller, while the Ravens ranked dead-last throughout Roman’s tenure (49.3%).

• Lamar Jackson only has nine career games with more than 35 pass attempts; he averages 23.6 FPG in those contests (QB4 last season).

• Jackson has just four career games with over 300 passing yards. He’s averaged a truly absurd 34.4 FPG in those games.

• And Jackson’s rushing efficiency should be even better in a spread offense…

• JK Dobbins (5.9) and Gus Edwards (5.2) rank 2nd and 17th in career yards per carry. If an increase in passing means lighter boxes for both players, they could be among the most efficient runners in NFL history this season.

• Last year, the backfield duo combined for just 18 carries (2.1 per game) against boxes with 6 or fewer men. James Cook and Devin Singletary combined for 75 carries against such boxes (4.7 per game). That’s the power of a spread offense.

• Mark Andrews would’ve scored +2.5 more FPG if he ran as many routes as Travis Kelce last season.

Matchups:

• Houston was easily the softest schedule-adjusted matchup for opposing RBs last year (+5.7 FPG). They graded out as PFF’s 2nd-worst run defense and allowed 5.1 YPC (4th-worst).

• That said, the Texans also ranked as the single toughest schedule-adjusted matchup for opposing QBs (-3.6 FPG), and a bottom-5 matchup for opposing WRs (-5.7 FPG).

• Baltimore ranked as the 5th-softest schedule-adjusted matchup for opposing slot WRs (+2.3 FPG). A potential boost for Tank Dell.

Carolina Panthers (+3.5) @ Atlanta Falcons (O/U: 39.5)

Trends:

• Miles Sanders stated he will be playing this week.

• The last time Sanders had Duce Staley as his RB coach was 2019 – a season in which Sanders caught a career-high 50 passes (7.4 receiving FPG).

• If we combine his rookie year receiving production and his 4th-year rushing workload, he would average 18.8 FPG – good for RB5 last season.

• HC Frank Reich has repeatedly called Sanders “a three-down back.” He’s $5,600 this week (RB21).

• Jonathan Mingo is just $3,200. The history of early-season rookie WR production isn’t great, but Mingo is an elite athlete (97.3 SPORQ) who is locked into the No. 2 WR role.

• Desmond Ridder ranked 44th by accurate throw rate (42.6%), even worse than Marcus Mariota (43.7%).

• Every RB drafted in the top 10 since 2012 (6 players) has averaged at least 14.3 FPG in their 1st season. That group collectively averaged 18.5 FPG. Bijan Robinson was the 8th pick.

• This won’t happen, but Atlanta’s star pass catchers will smash if the team’s pass rate picks up and they get solid QB play. Sadly, the Falcons offered an egregious -11.7% pass rate over expectation last season…

Matchups:

• Carolina was the 3rd-softest schedule-adjusted matchup for opposing WRs last year (+6.2 FPG).

• Atlanta was the 5th-softest schedule-adjusted matchup for opposing QBs (+2.1 FPG), and the 6th-softest schedule-adjusted matchup for opposing TEs (+2.4 FPG).

Tennessee Titans (+3.0) @ New Orleans Saints (O/U: 41.0)

Trends:

• Since 2019, Derrick Henry has averaged +9.9 more FPG in wins (24.7) than in losses (14.8). If you think the Titans roll, he’s a must-play.

• In 2022, PFF handed DeAndre Hopkins his worst receiving grade (73.5) since his rookie season (2013). I’m more interested in the other Tennessee pass-catching options as Hopkins enters his age-31 season.

• Like Chig Okonkwo, who is just $3,800 this week.

• Remember, 2nd-year TEs tend to take a dramatic leap forward, equivalent to a 2.0X increase in fantasy production.

• Kendre Miller is dealing with a hamstring injury, and Alvin Kamara is suspended, leaving Jamaal Williams, Kirk Merritt, and Tony Jones as the presumptive Week 1 RBs for New Orleans.

• Williams has averaged 16.3 DraftKings FPG in his 33 career games with over 15 touches (7th-best among slate-eligible RBs last year). That number jumps to 19.9 DraftKings FPG in his 14 games with over 20 touches (5th-best). He will be chalky unless something changes.

• That said, Williams probably isn’t very good. Among 51 qualifying RBs last year, he ranked 39th in yards after contact per attempt (2.7), 47th in missed tackles forced per touch (0.12), and 37th in YPC (4.1).

• Last season, Chris Olave led New Orleans in routes (419), targets (112, 39 more than his next-closest teammate), receiving yards per game (69.5), end zone targets (5), 1st read share (32%), and XFP per route run (0.5).

• Among rookie WRs all time, Olave earned the 20th-most receiving yards (1,042), 26th-most targets, and the 3rd-most receiving YPG. Olave wasn’t just great for New Orleans; he was historically great for a rookie WR.

• Olave scored double-digit fantasy points in 11 of his 15 games last season, while earning the 5th-most air yards per game (110.8) and the 5th-highest aDOT (14.9). He finished 2022 as one of the most consistent fantasy producers in the league.

• Interestingly, every other player who ranked top-10 in air yards per game had at least one contest where they scored over 30.0 fantasy points – meaning Olave was the only high-volume, downfield threat who didn’t post a massive spike week.

• And now, almost unbelievably, we get the historically great Olave at a WR15 price tag (if pricing were based on DraftKings' best ball draft ADP, he would be the WR8).

• Rashid Shaheed scored the 3rd-most TDs of 40 or more yards (3) on just 32 total touches last year. He was a consistent threat once he learned the offense…

Matchups:

• The Titans were the 6th-softest schedule–adjusted matchup for opposing QBs (+2.0 FPG) and the single-softest schedule-adjusted matchup for opposing WRs (+6.6 FPG) last season.

• Tennessee gave up the most receiving yards (4,935), 3rd-most YAC (2,235), and the most deep receiving yards (1,314) of any pass defense last season. Olave – who earned the 8th-most targets of 20 or more yards last season – should have a field day running behind this Tennessee secondary.

• Tennessee was quietly the 3rd-toughest schedule-adjusted matchup for opposing RBs last year (-3.6 FPG)

• The Titans were also the 2nd-softest schedule-adjusted matchup for opposing TEs.

• New Orleans was the single-toughest schedule-adjusted matchup for opposing TEs (-4.3 FPG).

Jacksonville Jaguars (-5.0) @ Indianapolis Colts (O/U: 45.0)

Trends:

• Jacksonville averaged 21.6 PPG, 233.4 passing YPG, and 6.7 YPA, while Trevor Lawrence managed a pedestrian 63.9 PFF passing grade in the first 10 weeks of the season. But Jacksonville took a notable step forward in their final seven games, averaging 26.9 PPG, 259.1 passing YPG, and 7.3 YPA, while Lawrence earned an 81.2 PFF passing grade (9th-best).

• Lawrence averaged 18.4 FPG in losses last season but 23.8 FPG in wins. The Jaguars’ implied win probability this week is 69.7%.

• Last season, Travis Etienne earned 17.8 FPG as a favorite (RB5), but just 10.2 FPG (RB34) as an underdog. He’s priced as the RB9 ($6,900) this week, and I’m willing to take shots on him after very encouraging preseason usage.

• It’s easy to look at the recent history of fantasy rookie QBs and write off Anthony Richardson – after all, only four rookie QBs in the history of the NFL have averaged more than 20.0 FPG.

• But three of those seasons were from Robert Griffin, Cam Newton, and Deshaun Watson – a trio of players who collectively averaged 47.2 rushing YPG across their rookie seasons. And if any QB could break fantasy on rushing alone, it would be Anthony Richardson (especially without Jonathan Taylor stealing touches)…

• When we look at the best single-game rookie QB fantasy performances of all time, we see that eight of the top 10 were performed by Konami QBs. Cam Newton dropped 34.7 fantasy points in his first-ever NFL game (the 26th-best fantasy outing by a rookie QB), and Richardson is one of just two QBs to post a better speed score than Newton since 2000. Don’t let Richardson’s inexperience scare you off.

• Brett Whitefield was left raving about Richardson’s arm talent and deep accuracy.

• Among the 35 QBs with at least 20 deep attempts, Matt Ryan ranked 34th in deep passes that were deemed ‘accurate’ (13%).

• Alec Pierce is just $3,800 this week. He earned 45% of the Colts’ deep targets last season (15). Barring injury, Pierce will be out there for every snap this season.

Matchups:

• Jacksonville was the 6th-softest schedule-adjusted matchup for opposing QBs last season (+2.0 FPG).

• The Jaguars also ranked 6th-softest by schedule-adjusted FPG allowed to opposing slot WRs (+2.2 FPG), setting Josh Downs up with a solid matchup in his pro debut.

• The Colts had PFF’s 30th-highest graded pass rush last season. Trevor Lawrence averaged 21.9 DraftKings FPG in the five games last year he didn’t take a sack (3rd-best among slate-eligible QBs over the full season).

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+6.0) @ Minnesota Vikings (O/U: 45.5)

Trends:

• The last time Baker Mayfield scored over 20.0 DraftKings points was Week 5 of 2021.

• And since 2021, Mayfield has averaged a putrid 11.6 DraftKings FPG as an underdog.

• Last year, Leonard Fournette suffered a hip pointer in Week 10 that caused him to miss the end of that game and Week 12.

• In those two contests, Rachaad White earned 16.4 XFP/G, 15.2 FPG, a 78% snap share, and a 58% route share – marks that would have ranked 7th-best (ahead of Jonathan Taylor), 11th-best, 2nd-best, and 2nd-best over the full year. In other words, White was an RB1 without Fournette.

• Tom Brady was the king of the quick passing game. Last season, Chris Godwin led the league in designed targets (like screens) with 35. Baker Mayfield’s WRs and TEs combined for just 27 designed targets.

• Kirk Cousins has averaged 22.0 DraftKings FPG as a favorite since 2020 (30 instances), which would have ranked 3rd-best among slate-eligible QBs last season.

• Alexander Mattison has played in 6 career games without Dalvin Cook. He averages 20.4 FPG, 4.5 targets per game, and 115.5 YFS per game – marks that would have ranked 3rd-best, 6th-best, and best among slate-eligible RBs last season. Mattison is the RB13 by DraftKings salary ($6,500).

• Three of Justin Jefferson’s four best fantasy outings have come as a favorite in games with a total over 44.0. But really, he’s a great play every week – especially because he’s $400 cheaper than he was in Week 17 last season.

• If Round 1 WR and former Biletnikoff Award winner Jordan Addison runs as many routes as Adam Thielen did last year (2nd-most among all players) and is just perfectly average in YPRR, we should expect 1,146 receiving yards. For perspective, this would have ranked 12th-best among all WRs last year.

• TJ Hockenson earned the 2nd-most targets per game (8.6), the 2nd-most XFP/G (14.8), and the 2nd-most FPG (13.0) among TEs since he joined Minnesota in Week 9.

• Remember, the 14.8 XFP/G Hockenson averaged a Viking was 97% of Travis Kelce’s workload over that same stretch (15.3 XFP/G).

Matchups:

• Tampa Bay was the 6th-toughest schedule-adjusted matchup for opposing RBs (-2.9) but the 2nd-softest schedule-adjusted matchup for opposing slot WRs (+2.9 FPG).

• Minnesota was the 2nd-softest schedule-adjusted matchup for opposing WRs (+6.3 FPG).

San Francisco 49ers (-2.5) @ Pittsburgh Steelers (O/U: 41.0)

Trends:

• In his seven wins, Brock Purdy was rather incredible for fantasy, racking up 19.6 FPG – which would’ve been good for fantasy QB7 over the full season, while his 0.59 fantasy points per dropback ranked behind only Jalen Hurts, Justin Fields, Lamar Jackson, Patrick Mahomes, and Josh Allen.

• Christian McCaffrey averages more FPG as an underdog (26.2) than as a favorite (22.3) since 2019. He averages +1.1 more receptions a game as an underdog.

• But his usage in San Francisco hasn’t been as strong as it was in Carolina when Elijah Mitchell was active…

• George Kittle is banged up. Deebo Samuel averages +2.4 more targets per game in the 10 contests Kittle has missed (8.6 targets per game) than in the 41 games they’ve played together (6.2 targets per game).

• Brandon Aiyuk is $1,400 cheaper ($4,900) than his Week 17 salary at the end of 2022.

• Both Aiyuk and Samuel are elite values relative to their current best ball ADP – ranking among the top 5 most mispriced WRs of the slate.

• Najee Harris earned 15 or more touches a dozen times last season, but he only scored over 15.0 fantasy points on three occasions.

• Only Cooper Kupp (14) has more games with 10 or more targets than Diontae Johnson (12) over the last three years.

• But Johnson has also been plagued by inefficiency, averaging 14.0 FPG compared to an expectation of 17.8 XFP/G. He’s a WR1 by volume but a WR2 by production.

• Over the previous two seasons – in healthy games (>50% snap share) – Johnson averaged 10.8 targets per game (most of any WR) and averaged 17.6 FPG (would have ranked 9th-best last year).

• Johnson earns targets at an elite rate because he’s elite at getting open. He led the league in ESPN’s Open Rate last year, and has ranked top-4 in every season since he entered the league.

• This is a very long-winded way of saying: Johnson pops as a great usage-based value (2nd among WRs in XFP/G per dollar of salary) at a way-too-low WR29 ($5,300) price tag.

Matchups:

• The Steelers were the 10th-toughest schedule-adjusted matchup for opposing QBs last season (-1.5 FPG).

• San Francisco was the 8th-toughest schedule-adjusted matchup for opposing QBs (-2.2 FPG), and the single-toughest schedule-adjusted matchup for opposing RBs (-4.3 FPG). They gave up a league-low 3.4 YPC last season. Expect Pittsburgh RBs to struggle with efficiency on the ground.

Green Bay Packers (+1.0) @ Chicago Bears (O/U: 43.0)

Trends:

• Aaron Jones’ TD upside is far worse now than it was in years past.

• Jones scored just 7 TDs in 2022, his worst scoring season since his rookie year. His base snap percentage of 58% fell to 47% in the red zone and to 29% inside the five.

• The -29% dip between Jones’ base snap rate and his i5 snap rate was easily the worst in the NFL last season.

• I have a suspicion that Christian Watson may not be cheaper than his Week 1 price tag ($6,000, WR21) again this season…

• After Week 10, Watson ranked 9th in FPG (17.2), 1st in YPRR (2.83), 5th in end zone targets (7), and 1st in fantasy points per route run (0.74, 23% better than the next-closest player) among WRs.

• There really is no shortage of stats that suggest Watson was truly special as a rookie, but this chart perfectly encapsulates (almost) all of them…

• Based on per-route usage, Watson out-paced players like Justin Jefferson, AJ Brown, Ja’Marr Chase, Chris Olave, and CeeDee Lamb. Combine that with league-leading production (on a per-route basis), and it’s pretty obvious Watson is too cheap to start the year.

• But keep an eye on Watson’s status, as he’s dealing with a hamstring issue.

• From Week 5 onward, Justin Fields was borderline unstoppable as a runner, averaging 90.5 rushing YPG (the most ever by a QB over a full season by 10.1 YPG), 12.9 rushing FPG (most ever over a full season), and 24.2 FPG (16th-best QB fantasy season ever).

• Khalil Herbert is just $5,300 (RB27). Herbert is the favorite to lead this (likely) committee backfield in Week 1, and he could post a tournament-winning score thanks to legendary efficiency…

• In his seven career games with more than a dozen carries, Herbert averages a quite impressive 96.7 rushing YPG. Measured by rush yards over expectation (RYOE), Herbert was the league’s most efficient runner on a per-carry basis last season, posting 1.44 RYOE/carry.

• DJ Moore has never played with a QB who has earned a same-season PFF passing grade over 67.0 – despite catching passes from six different QBs over his career.

• But the handicap of bottom-tier QB play makes Moore’s underlying efficiency metrics that much more impressive. His career 1.94 YPRR rivals WRs like Chris Godwin (1.95), DK Metcalf (1.95), and Amari Cooper (1.87) – all players who have seen notably better QB play.

• If Justin Fields can take a step forward as a passer, Moore will surely smash.

Matchups:

• The Bears were the 5th-softest schedule-adjusted matchup for opposing RBs (+3.0 FPG), but the 6th-toughest schedule-adjusted matchup for opposing WRs (-3.7 FPG). Green Bay could rely on the ground game here, especially with multiple WRs dealing with hamstring issues.

• Green Bay was the 5th-toughest schedule-adjusted matchup for opposing WRs (-4.0 FPG).

Miami Dolphins (+2.0) @ Los Angeles Chargers (O/U: 51.0)

Trends:

• In his nine games with at least 30 pass attempts last season, Tua Tagovailoa averaged 23.1 DraftKings FPG (ranks 2nd-best among slate-eligible QBs over the full season), including a 43.9-point outing (the 32nd-best fantasy performance ever by a QB). You don’t need me to tell you his ceiling is among the best of the slate.

• In Tagovailoa’s healthy games, Jaylen Waddle averaged 17.0 FPG (would have ranked 8th-best among WRs), and Tyreek Hill averaged 23.0 FPG (would have led all flex-eligible players).

• Tyreek Hill has played in 22 career games as an underdog. He averages an absurd 26.0 DraftKings FPG in those contests, scoring over 40.0 DraftKings points four times (18% hit rate).

• Hill led the league in YPRR (3.20) last season. If he ran as many routes as Justin Jefferson (2.62 YPRR) last year, he would have had 2,208 receiving yards (the most all-time by 244 yards).

• Justin Herbert averages 23.7 DraftKings FPG in games with a total over 47.0 – which ranks 2nd-best among slate-eligible QBs. Herbert is priced as the QB5 ($6,900).

• Austin Ekeler has a higher rate of top-10 weekly finishes (58%) than any other RB over the last two seasons.

• Ekeler was one of the top-10 most consistent players in fantasy for the 2nd consecutive year.

• Ekeler averages 23.5 DraftKings FPG in his 10 career games as a favorite with a total over 48.0. That’s 8% better than Christian McCaffrey was last year, yet Ekeler is 4% cheaper on DraftKings this week ($8,400).

• Last year, if excluding the two games he left early due to injury, Keenan Allen averaged 10.4 targets per game (WR6) and 19.0 FPG (WR7). He’s priced as the WR7 on this slate ($7,300).

• Gerald Everett had the 23rd-highest route share (59%), and the 16th-best usage (8.7 XFP/G) among TEs last season. Dalton Schultz ranked 8th in route share (73%), and 10th in usage (10.2 XFP/G). Expect a solid usage bump for Everett with Kellen Moore as his OC.

• Everett is priced as the TE10 ($4,200), while Schultz is the TE7 ($4,600).

Matchups:

• The Chargers were the 2nd-softest schedule-adjusted matchup for opposing RBs on the ground (+3.5 rushing FPG). They also gave up a league-leading 5.4 YPC.

• On passes of 20 or more yards last season, the Chargers allowed the 4th-most receptions (30), the 3rd-most yards (1,012), and the 2nd-most TDs. This is one of the league’s weakest pass defenses against the deep ball. The offense that led the league in passing YPG on throws of 20 or more yards? The Miami Dolphins.

• Miami was the 3rd-softest schedule-adjusted matchup for opposing QBs (+3.0 FPG), and the 5th-softest schedule-adjusted matchup for opposing TEs (+2.9 FPG). Fire up the Herbert/Everett stacks.

Los Angeles Rams (+5.5) @ Seattle Seahawks (O/U: 46.0)

Trends:

• In their eight games without Cooper Kupp last year, the Rams offense ranked 23rd in YPA (6.6), and 30th in passing YPG (169.6), while scoring 17 or fewer points in 63% of their contests.

• Cam Akers was one of the top volume-earners among RBs in the final four weeks of 2022, ranking 2nd in snap share (83%), 9th in route share (49%), 4th in team XFP% (28%), 5th in FPG (19.5), and 14th in XFP/G (14.5). He’s priced as the RB16 ($6,200) this week.

• Akers was also surprisingly efficient last year. He ranked top-10 in PFF rushing grade (85.8), missed tackles forced (19), YPC (5.2), and yards after contact (248) in his final five games of 2022.

• Tyler Higbee posted the 5th-best TPRR (25%) among TEs in his eight games without Cooper Kupp last year.

• Kenneth Walker played in six wins of 4 or more points. He averaged 17.8 FPG in those contests, which would have matched Saquon Barkley (RB5) over the full season.

• DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett averaged 11.3 FPG and 13.6 FPG in those same six games, respectively. They are likely mediocre plays unless you think the Rams can push Seattle.

• Jaxon Smith-Njigba will play this week. His $4,900 salary looks appealing, but Seattle had 3 or more WRs on the field on just 64.5% of their dropbacks (6th-fewest) last season. If things don't change this year, we should expect, at best, a 65% route share for JSN, implying 25.0 routes per game, which would have ranked 75th among all WRs last year.

Matchups:

• Seattle was the 2nd-toughest schedule-adjusted matchup for opposing outside WRs (-5.1 FPG) last season.

• But, the Seahawks were a disaster against opposing rushers. Seattle allowed the 3rd-most rushing yards (2,554), the 7th-highest YPC (4.9), the 4th-highest explosive rush rate (35%), and the 4th-most yards after contact (1,458). A great matchup for Cam Akers.

• Los Angeles was the 7th-toughest schedule-adjusted matchup for opposing QBs last season (-2.4 FPG), but the 4th-softest schedule-adjusted matchup for opposing outside WRs (+4.2 FPG).

Philadelphia Eagles (-4.0) @ New England Patriots (O/U: 45.0)

Trends:

• Jalen Hurts averages 27.0 FPG as a favorite over the last two seasons. That easily leads all slate-eligible players – and would rank as the 2nd-best QB fantasy season ever.

• Even crazier: Only 16% of Jalen Hurts fantasy points were scored in the 4th quarter last year.

• Hurts averaged 7.2 fantasy points per quarter in the 1st, 2nd, and 3rd quarters of games last year.

• That translates to an insane 28.8 FPG. But teams will need to push the Eagles for that actually to manifest.

• I’m contractually obligated to post something favorable about Rashaad Penny, who costs just $5,000 this week…

• DeVonta Smith had the 2nd-most receiving yards in the final 6 weeks of the 2022 season (587). The only player with more? AJ Brown (665).

• Brown was the league’s most productive player against man coverage last year, totaling 645 yards (1st), 56 targets (2nd), and 7.2 FPG (1st) against man coverage.

• New England gave up the 6th-most targets (172) while in man coverage last year.

• Mac Jones averages an encouraging 17.4 FPG as an underdog (QB13 last season).

• But, Jones only averages 13.5 FPG (QB29) when he’s been pressured 8 or more times in a game. And I’d expect Jones to face plenty of pressure this week.

• Last season, Rhamondre Stevenson averaged +2.1 more FPG as an underdog (16.0 FPG), than he did as a favorite. Ezekiel Elliott isn’t much of a receiving threat, so Rhamondre should benefit from negative gamescript.

• New England WRs aren’t the epitome of health right now.

• But, Hunter Henry (who drew rave reviews all August) has averaged 16.8 DraftKings FPG in his 14 career games with 8 or more targets. That number easily led all slate-eligible TEs last year.

• Henry is priced as the TE18 ($3,500).

Matchups:

• The Eagles were the 5th-toughest schedule-adjusted matchup for opposing outside WRs (-3.4 FPG) last season, but the 7th-softest (+1.8 FPG) for opposing slot WRs.

• New England was the 7th-toughest schedule-adjusted matchup for opposing RBs on the ground last year (-1.8 rushing FPG).

Las Vegas Raiders (+4.0) @ Denver Broncos (O/U: 44.0)

Trends:

• Josh Jacobs has averaged +8.0 more FPG in Raiders’ wins (22.0 FPG) than Raiders’ losses the last two seasons. The Raiders implied win probability this week is 39%.

• Adams averaged 22.4 FPG as an underdog last season and 18.2 FPG as a favorite.

• Jimmy Garoppolo ranked 9th in catchable throw rate and 18th in accurate throw rate last year, while Derek Carr ranked 32nd and 29th in those metrics, respectively.

• Sean Payton QBs by fantasy points per start: Taysom Hill (20.5), Drew Brees in his age 39-41 seasons (19.8), Trevor Siemian (18.0), Jameis Winston (17.2), and Teddy Bridgewater (17.1). Expect improvement from Russell Wilson.

• I’m interested in Jerry Jeudy ($6,600) if he can play…

• But if he can’t, Marvin Mims ($3,000) is a smash play. Everything you need to know about the talented rookie is right here.

• Cortland Sutton also gets a significant boost from Jeudy’s absence. In the two games Jeudy missed last season, Sutton earned 43% of the Broncos 1st read targets (1st among all players by 4% over the full season). He’s likely the focal point of this passing attack without Jeduy.

Matchups:

• Las Vegas was the 4th-softest schedule-adjusted matchup for opposing QBs (+2.9 FPG), and the 4th-softest matchup for opposing RBs (+3.3 FPG) last season.

• Denver was the 9th-toughest schedule-adjusted matchup for opposing QBs (-2.1 FPG), and the 4th-toughest matchup for opposing WRs (-4.4 FPG). Denver is a tough pass defense.