After weeks of speculation, the Tennessee Titans ended the DeAndre Hopkins sweepstakes just nine days away from Training Camp.
Hopkins ultimately chose the guaranteed payday instead of waiting for an injury or cap space to free up from other teams in late July or August. According to NFL Network’s Ian Rapoport, the Titans signed Hopkins for a $12M base salary in 2023 with incentives totaling up to $32M over the two-year deal.
The most pressing fantasy football question around Hopkins is just how much the 31-year-old has left in the tank after a dominant, long run.
Will Hopkins Age Gracefully?
On the one hand, Hopkins is staring down the back end of the WR age curve.
Thanks to Ryan Heath’s incredible research, we now have a better picture of how skill players regress over time. For example, wide receivers entering Year 10 of their career typically score 22.8% fewer fantasy points than their Year 1-9 baseline production.
Hopkins is entering Year 10.
(Just for reference, if we regress Hopkins’ career baseline by 22.8% – we’d expect him to average 10.5 FPG in half-PPR this season. That would make him a high-end fantasy WR3.)
On the other hand, Hopkins is a Hall-of-Fame candidate who still produced like a fantasy WR1 last season. We should not expect him to age like most 31-year-olds, so the typical 23% dip in production may be lessened.
Hopkins dominated targets last year – just like he has always done – despite the Cardinals' QB issues. Across his nine games played after suspension, Hopkins saw 43 targets from Colt McCoy, 38 from Kyler Murray, and 15 from Trace McSorley.
According to Fantasy Points Data, Hopkins averaged 0.283 targets per route run – which ranked seventh-most among WRs, just behind CeeDee Lamb (0.286 TPRR).
Hopkins converted his 10.7 targets per game into the WR10 finish by fantasy points per game (13.3) and averaged the 10th-most receiving yards per game (79.7) among WRs.
While these numbers look great on the surface, a deeper look under the hood reveals some cause for concern.
Most worrying of all was that Hopkins struggled mightily vs. man coverage last year. Now, this could be due in part because of the QB play he saw from McCoy and McSorley.
But, according to Fantasy Points Data, Hopkins ranked 72nd out of 105 WRs in receiving yards per route run (1.25) and 96th in yards per target under expectation (-4.3) vs. man coverage schemes last season.
Hopkins saw a catchable throw on 73% of his targets vs. man coverage, which aligns with league average (73%). So, it’s not like his QB play was horrible. It was just average.
He was also funneled the ball against man coverage, so it’s not like a lack of opportunity was the culprit either. Hopkins averaged 0.34 TPRR vs. man coverage, which ranked third-highest among wideouts. Only Amon Ra St. Brown (0.37 TPRR) and Tyreek Hill (0.36 TPRR) earned more targets vs. man coverage on a per-route basis.
Also of concern, Hopkins did not create much yardage after the catch – ranking 92nd-of-105 WRs in YAC per reception (2.8). That is a steep decline after averaging 3.5 YAC/R in 2021 and 4.2 YAC/R and 2020 in his two previous seasons.
Note that Hopkins suffered a brutal Grade 3 MCL year in December of 2021 that likely had an effect on his explosiveness last season. Hopkins’ knee “flared up” to end Arizona’s 2022 campaign, and that’s why he missed Week 17-18.
Now, the good news is Nuk still shredded zone coverage – which has always been his calling card. His 2.39 YPRR vs. zone coverage shells ranked eighth-best last season – tying Cooper Kupp.
Hopkins' craftiness vs. zone coverage and ability to make contested catches in the end-zone still give us enough to work with in fantasy.
However, I question whether or not Hopkins has much of a ceiling left on the Titans' run-first offense.
Hopkins’ Fantasy Football Projection
Ultimately, Hopkins’ target earning potential is the main driving force behind his fantasy football projection. Ryan Tannehill is not some incredible WR talent maximizer at quarterback, but he absolutely can hit Nuk with tons of accurate passes.
According to Fantasy Points Data, 78.5% of Tannehill’s throws were catchable (on-target) – which tied Tua Tagovailoa for the fifth-highest rate last season.
Tannehill’s +2.9% completion rate over expectation wasn’t too big of a dip at all compared to his 2021 season when the Titans had better receivers (+3.7% CPOE).
If Hopkins can earn 9-10 targets per game again, then any age- or skill-related regression from the previous section won’t matter too much.
However, the Titans are the same team that refused to target their previous alpha WR1 A.J. Brown 9-10 times per game. It’s a stretch to assume Hopkins gets back to an extremely high-volume role.
Last year, Hopkins shared the field with Marquise Brown in just four games, and he averaged 9.3 targets per contest with Brown vs. 11.6 T/G when Brown was out due to injury.
Crucially, there is no way the 2023 Titans pass volume will be anywhere close to the 2022 Cardinals. Last year, Arizona finished 4th in pass plays per game (41.8) while Tennessee ranked 29th (29.7 pass plays per game).
So, even if Hopkins remains the same receiver he’s always been and gets 28% of the team’s targets, we’d expect his targets per game to fall to 7-8 per game this season based on the Titans' pass rate.
While it remains to be seen if Treylon Burks and Chigoziem Okonkwo can thrive in full-time roles, those two dominated Titans' targets last season.
Okonkwo ranked second among all tight ends in targets per route run (0.29) and led all TEs in yards per route run (2.81). A full-time role is in Okonkwo’s future with Austin Hooper and Geoff Swaim both gone.
Burks’ rookie season was mired by injuries, but he still earned the third-best TPRR (0.22) on the Titans despite playing on 70% of the snaps in just three games.
Derrick Henry actually ranked second on the team in targets per route run (0.26) last year, a number that will regress with Hopkins now in town.
OC Tim Kelly will throw the ball a little bit more this coming season, but this is still King Derrick Henry’s offense.
The Titans will still be among the league’s ten most run-heavy teams in 2023, ultimately limiting Hopkins’ target-earning upside.
Tennessee ranked top-10 in run rate by every key situation last season:
Game within a score: 6th (52.9% run-heavy)
When trailing: 9th (43.6%)
When leading: 5th (50%)
Run rate over expected: 4th (+6.2%)
We could see the Titans shift a little more pass-heavy with Hopkins’ signing, but it likely won’t be by more than 1.5-2%. HC Mike Vrabel has always preferred a slow-paced, run-heavy offense.
It’s a small dip, but Henry has shown a little sign of skill regression as he enters his age-29 season.
Henry’s yards after contact average has fallen from 4.2 YAC/carry in 2019-20 to 3.2 YAC/carry over the last two seasons.
While his peak is over, Henry still ranks a rock-solid 11th-best out of 57 qualifying RBs in yards after contact (3.12 – tied with Aaron Jones) over the last two years.
And to that point, Henry has remained elusive. His 0.19 missed tackles forced per carry ranks similarly to Josh Jacobs (0.20) and Saquon Barkley (0.19) in this span.
Henry has been an outlier his entire football career, and I expect him to continue to age better than most – if not all – age-29 running backs.
The Bottom Line
Hopkins was WR27 (50 overall) in my best ball rankings before signing with the Titans, which was six spots behind ADP (44 overall).
I’ve bumped Hopkins down even further to 57 overall (WR29) after signing in Tennessee.
Hopkins will wind up as a 5th-round pick in drafts – a fair risk vs. reward for his age — and skill-related red flags. However, I will not be among the buyers.
I want to target young/ascending players in the 4th-5th round of drafts – not aging veterans on run-heavy offenses.
The biggest loser of the Hopkins signing?
Treylon Burks’ projection just nose-dived. Our guys Scott Barrett and Brett Whitefield have long been skeptics of Burks from an analytics and film-based perspective. And now Burks’ target-earning potential just dropped off a cliff.
Ultimately, Hopkins’ addition helps Ryan Tannehill and Derrick Henry the most.
Hopkins’ chain-moving skills will help keep drives alive and boost the Titans' outlook as a whole. Defenses will have to respect Hopkins and Burks on the outside and won’t be able to stack the box as often against Henry.
Henry is RB9 in my best ball ranks – one spot behind RB8 Josh Jacobs and one spot ahead of RB10 Rhamondre Stevenson.
Quick Hit: New England Patriots Fallout…
The Patriots were very much in the Hopkins sweepstakes but were not prepared to pay the price the Titans ultimately did…
Patriots stayed in consistent contact with DeAndre Hopkins’ camp through free agency process, but their base financial package wasn’t in the same ballpark as what Titans offered. The good vibes between N.E. and Hopkins from his team visit never translated to a workable deal
— Jeremy Fowler (@JFowlerESPN) July 16, 2023
With Hopkins off of the market, I have the Patriots' pass catchers ranked:
WR61 JuJu Smith-Schuster (135 overall)
WR66 Tyquan Thornton (149)
WR71 DeVante Parker (163)
TE25 Mike Gesicki (189)
TE29 Hunter Henry (198)
Yeah, so clearly, none of these receivers will make my late-round target list in seasonal start/sit leagues. But, odds are at least one of these Patriots will outproduce ADP.
My bet is on the tight ends.
This is somewhat of a fade against JuJu Smith-Schuster but more of a volume-based play.
JuJu might not have much left in his knee, and he is apparently still in pain this summer, according to Mike Girardi. The Patriots' interest in DeAndre Hopkins had to be at least a little tied to concerns over Smith-Schuster’s health.
Keep in mind, Smith-Schuster was not a full-time player with the Chiefs last season. He managed to play on only 75% of the Chiefs' snaps in 8-of-19 games, while he ran a route on just 73% of the team’s pass plays when healthy. That was “good” enough to rank 63rd in route involvement among wide receivers.
JuJu does project as the WR1 in terms of targets per route run, but his aforementioned injury history is a big risk. At this stage of his career, JuJu can’t be a full-time player.
Regardless of JuJu’s health, though – the New England tight ends are being under-projected by the markets. New OC Bill O’Brien utilized 12-personnel (2-TE) sets a ton in Houston, and I suspect it’ll be a big part of what the Patriots do in 2023.
In his final three years as the Texans HC, O’Brien used 12-personnel at the league’s 7th, 3rd, and 2nd highest rates on passing downs. And he now has the best tight-end duo he’s ever coached in the NFL.
Both Henry and Gesicki are excellent TE3 targets in the last two rounds of best ball drafts.
DeVante Parker should be an ADP riser in best ball, too. He’s now the Patriots' locked-in X-receiver after getting an extension this off-season that included a little bit of new money over the next two years.
Parker was the WR41 in FPG (9.1) in his nine games where he played more than 70% of the snaps last season. Again, Parker is not someone we want in seasonal start/sit leagues – but I like him the most out of the Patriots WR group to beat his ADP (WR84).
Parker has finished as a top-36 scoring receiver in 35% of his starts over the last two years, just marginally behind Smith-Schuster (38%).
JuJu is going in the 9th-10th round of drafts. Parker is free.
