You know the College Football season is upon us when season-long prop lines start popping up, and a slew of them have just been released this week on PrizePicks.
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Back to the reason why you clicked on this article: player props. There’s plenty of value on the board, so let’s hop right into our top plays!
PrizePicks
PrizePicks is a fantasy site and app that allows you to construct a card of anywhere between 2-5 props. With so many selections available, there is a ton of value on the board if you know where to look. Here’s where some of that value is:
Sam Hartman UNDER 3,250.5 passing yards
QB, Notre Dame Fighting Irish
Sam Hartman’s line here is a reflection of his time at Wake Forest, a school for which he no longer plays. The senior quarterback took his talents to South Bend in the offseason, where Notre Dame won’t throw the ball nearly as much this season as the Demon Deacons have the last few years. Part of that reason is the surrounding pieces for Hartman, as there isn’t a receiver on the roster who’s caught more than 25 passes in a single season.
Notre Dame’s starting wideouts will comprise of two young sophomores with a combined 26 receptions between them, and a converted running back in Chris Tyree. Not to mention Michael Mayer – maybe you’ve heard of him – has since departed to the NFL. Elsewhere, Hartman opened up at 2,950.5 yards at another sportsbook, and my projection calls for 2,928 passing yards this season.
Trey Benson OVER 950.5 rushing yards
RB, Florida State Seminoles
We’re getting plenty of value here, as FanDuel listed Trey Benson at 1,025.5 rushing yards, and my projection calls for close to 1,200 yards for the Florida State RB1. The junior running back went on a tear during the second half of 2022, accumulating 618 of his 990 rushing yards over the last six games, and hitting the 100-yard mark four times in that stretch. The Florida State backfield is also less crowded entering this season, with Treshaun Ward transferring to Kansas State, and backup Lawrance Toafili considered to be more of a third-down, pass-catching option.
FSU does lose two starters along the offensive line, but this group was 31st in line yards last season, and we don’t see much of a drop-off forthcoming. Florida State’s offense will be one of the best in the country, and Benson will be a key cog in that machine.
It's time to take #FSU RB Trey Benson seriously as a #devy asset
— Cory P. (@FF_Guitarist) November 23, 2022
Per PFF:
#1 yard after contact
#6 rush grade
#6 missed tackles forced
#1 PFF elusive rating
6'1, 215 lbs
7.5 YPC
All while receiving just under 40% of the carries.
'23 eligible but I expect him to return pic.twitter.com/KsUyS9Opxr
Mario Williams UNDER 700.5 receiving yards
WR, USC Trojans
If you wanted to mix in some Dorian Singer under 999.5 receiving yards as well, we will not argue with you, but Mario Williams should be the USC wide receiver under prop of most interest. “Why unders on USC receivers, Mike? Do you realize they have the defending Heisman winner — and current Heisman favorite — Caleb Williams throwing them the ball?” My response: go look at wide receiver production the last three seasons under Lincoln Riley.
No wideout has hit more than 16% target share in a season the last three years under Riley, and that’s including former Biletnikoff Award winner Jordan Addison. Williams is no Addison, and might be the 4th (or even 5th) option at the position as the Trojans boast a ton of depth with the aforementioned Singer, Brenden Rice, Tahj Washington, and 5-star recruit Zachariah Branch.
Carson Steele UNDER 900.5 rushing yards
RB, UCLA Bruins
We’ll hammer an under every single time on a player that might not even start this upcoming season. And if the UCLA beat writers are accurate in their reporting, that might be the case for Ball State transfer Carson Steele. A monster in the MAC, rushing for 1,556 yards as a sophomore last season, Steele and his beautiful blonde locks transferred to the West Coast hoping to secure a starting job at a Power Five destination.
Most assumed that would be the case given his prior production, but UCLA beat writers are currently pegging sophomore T.J. Harden as the projected favorite to open as the RB1 as the Bruins enter fall camp. Despite just 44 career carries, Harden did still leave a lasting impression on the coaching staff , rushing for 111 yards and a score in the bowl game vs. Pittsburgh, and was consistently running with the starters during spring camp.
The battle is far from over between Harden and Steele, but worth the risk here, considering the former Ball State transfer could wind up as a backup in 2023.
Malachi Corley OVER 999.5 receiving yards
WR, Western Kentucky Hilltoppers
We’re not big on wide receiver overs generally, but this number is too low for a player who could legitimately lead the nation in several receiving categories by the end of 2023. One of four wideouts to catch at least 100 passes last season, Malachi Corley plays in a Western Kentucky system that will chuck the ball 500 times as the Hilltoppers return starting quarterback Austin Reed, who threw for 4,700 yards and 40 touchdowns.
In addition, WKU loses over 200 targets and 130 receptions of vacated production with their WR2 and WR3 graduating, leaving more opportunity for Corley to dominate in the slot as the clear-cut top option in this Air Raid offense. Outside of a Week 3 trip to Ohio State, WKU will face seven defenses that rank 100th or worse in defensive SP+.
