Week 9 DFS Study Hall

DFS research can be tough. We may not always know what to look for, or where to look for it.

But this article helps solve that problem – by providing some early-week research to give readers solid footing for the upcoming Week 9 DFS slate.

Los Angeles Chargers (-3) @ Atlanta Falcons (O/U: 49.5)

Trends:

• Justin Herbert averages an incredibly impressive 27.7 FPG in his 19 career victories, which would match 2019 Lamar Jackson for the greatest QB fantasy season of all time.

• In both Weeks 6 and 7, Austin Ekeler had the best workload of any player at any position, averaging 29.5 XFP/G. Last season, only six player had multiple games of 28.0 or more XFP, and no player accomplished that feat more than three times. Ekeler has done so in back-to-back games with 10 more games remaining this season.

• Josh Palmer was in concussion protocol and didn’t play in Week 7, but he’s played four healthy games this season where LAC was without Keenan Allen, averaging 15.3 FPG and 16.8 XFP/G – numbers that rank 13th- and 10th-best among slate-eligible WRs. With Mike Williams and Keenan Allen now sidelined, it makes sense to anticipate similar high-end production and usage from Palmer, who is priced as the WR29 on DraftKings ($5,100).

• DeAndre Carter has averaged 11.1 FPG in the two games Allen has missed this season. 11.1 FPG ranks 25th-best among slate-eligible WRs, yet Carter is priced as the WR44 on DraftKings this week ($4,300).

• Keep an eye on Donald Parham’s status, as he enters Week 9 questionable with a concussion. Gerald Everett has averaged 12.1 XFP/G (TE4) in the games Parham has sat, but just 8.0 XFP/G (TE19) in the games Parham has played.

• Kyle Pitts has led the Falcons in XFP in his last two games, averaging 14.5 XFP/G over that stretch. Still, it’s difficult to believe this is a trend worth chasing, as Atlanta is throwing the ball at a -12% lower rate than expected (2nd-lowest).

• Drake London has fallen under double-digit XFP in his last three games, averaging just 5.3 XFP/G over that stretch. That’s WR95 usage for a first-round draft pick who is running a route on 90% of Marcus Mariota dropbacks. Not great.

• Corrdarrelle Patterson is back. Outside of Week 1 (20.4 XFP), Patterson has averaged just 8.0 XFP/G in his other three games. While he’s a player who typically exceeds his usage-based expectation, it’s difficult to think he’ll be anything close to a bell cow upon returning to the lineup.

Matchups:

• Atlanta is an outstanding matchup for opposing QBs. They allow the 2nd-most schedule-adjusted FPG (+6.6) while also ranking as the No. 2 pass funnel, allowing a +6.4% pass rate over expectation. They rank dead last in PFF pass rush grades (57.3) and 6th-worst in PFF coverage grades (57.1).

• Similarly, Atlanta is a great matchup for opposing WRs, allowing +13.0 schedule-adjusted FPG (most) – 75% more than the 2nd-worst team.

• The Falcons are also a strong matchup for opposing TEs, allowing +3.1 schedule-adjusted FPG (6th-most).

• The Chargers are a great matchup for opposing RBs, allowing the 2nd-most schedule-adjusted FPG (+4.5). Assuming Cordarrelle Patterson returns from IR this week, he has an outstanding matchup.

• LAC has also been vulnerable to opposing outside WRs, allowing +5.8 schedule-adjusted FPG (3rd-most).

Green Bay Packers (-3.5) @ Detroit Lions (O/U: 50.0)

Trends:

• Aaron Rodgers hasn’t exceeded 17.5 DraftKings fantasy points in a game this season. Last year, he exceeded that mark in 69% of his games. Rodgers’ upside has been neutered without Davante Adams on the team.

• Aaron Jones’ best two games (by XFP) have come over the last two weeks (19.4 XFP/G), earning 78% of backfield XFP over that span. He averages a solid 20.0 FPG in victories with a total of 48.0 or higher since 2019 (16 instances). GB’s implied win probability this week is 66%.

• Jones has been the Packers leading receiver over the last two weeks, leading the team with 15 targets and 67 receiving yards.

• If Christian Watson doesn’t play in Week 9, Samori Toure is a mildly interesting punt option at $3,000 on DraftKings. He played on 72% of GB’s snaps on their final two drives of Week 8, and could push for a bigger role in Week 9 given Greeb Bay’s health issues at WR.

• In his first game since Week 3, D’Andre Swift earned 12.1 XFP and 14.9 fantasy points. But, Lions coaches believed that was too heavy a workload for Swift. And it looks like he still isn’t healthy, given he didn’t practice Wednesday.

• TJ Hockenson was traded to the Vikings. It looks like James Mitchell ($2,500 on DraftKings) has solid potential as the punt TE of the week.

• Only two Lions players had more than 20 targets within 10 yards of the line of scrimmage, Amon-Ra St. Brown (42) and TJ Hockenson (32). This trade makes it easy to forecast a target bump for St. Brown, who was already earning elite volume.

• St. Brown is averaging 11.2 targets per game and 24.9 FPG over his last nine fully healthy games. For perspective, that’s just 0.3 fewer targets per game and just 0.5 fewer FPG than Cooper Kupp averaged since the start of 2021.

Matchups:

• DET has been a great matchup for opposing QBs this year, allowing +5.6 schedule-adjusted FPG (3rd-most).

• The Lions have also been a favorable matchup for opposing RBs, allowing the 9th-most schedule-adjusted FPG (+1.4) alongside the 5th-highest YPC (5.1) and the 5th-highest percentage of explosive plays (7.6%).

• The Lions are a great matchup for TEs, allowing the 3rd-most schedule-adjusted FPG (+4.6).

• GB has been a tough matchup for opposing QBs, allowing just -4.5 schedule-adjusted FPG (5th-toughest).

• GB is the 5th-toughest matchup for opposing slot WRs by schedule-adjusted FPG (-3.5). Not great for Amon-Ra St. Brown.

Miami Dolphins (-5) @ Chicago Bears (O/U: 44.0)

Trends:

• In his four fully healthy starts, Tua Tagovailoa is averaging 24.7 FPG (3rd) and 345.5 passing YPG (1st). He’s a high-end QB1 in his full games.

• Miami has posted a +9.1% pass rate over expectation in Tagovailoa’s four healthy games – the 3rd-highest mark of all teams. In the four games Tagovailoa was either injured or out, MIA’s PROE dropped to just +0.7%.

• Jaylen Waddle averages 25.3 FPG (~WR1) in Tagovailoa’s four full games. Tyreek Hill averages 26.4 FPG (~WR1) in Tagovailoa’s four full games.

• Tyreek Hill has an absurd six games with 12 or more targets this season (including all four of Tagovailoa’s healthy games). That’s 50% more than the next-closest player. And keep in mind that Cooper Kupp only had nine such games in all of 2021.

• Hill averages an absurd 28.5 FPG in his 19 career games with 12 or more targets. If sustained over a full season, that would be the best WR fantasy season of all-time – nearly 10% better (on a per-game basis) than 2021 Cooper Kupp.

• Justin Fields has been a QB1 over the last month.

• By backfield XFP, the Bears' backfield has been a very gross split between David Montgomery (53%) and Khalil Herbert (37%) over the last three weeks. It’s incredibly difficult to consider either RB playable in DFS, as they cannibalize each other’s upside.

Matchups:

• MIA has been particularly vulnerable to RBs through the air, allowing +5.0 schedule-adjusted receiving FPG to opposing RBs (most). Granted, I’m not that’s very applicable against a Bears offense averaging 2.6 RB receptions per game.

• MIA is the 8th-toughest matchup for outside WRs, allowing -3.6 schedule-adjusted FPG. Potentially bad news for new arrival Chase Claypool, and certainly not helpful to Darnell Mooney.

• CHI has been the 3rd-toughest matchup for opposing WRs this season, allowing -6.7 schedule-adjusted FPG.

Las Vegas Raiders (-1.5) @ Jacksonville Jaguars (O/U: 47.5)

Trends:

• Josh Jacobs recorded just a 55% snap share in Week 8, which seems bad until you realize the starters were benched due to the blowout script. Jacobs still played 73% of snaps with the starters, and is almost certainly still a bell cow.

• Derek Carr’s upside remains nonexistent. He has zero games of 20.0 or more fantasy points this season. And since 2019, he has just one game of 25.0 or more fantasy points.

• Trevor Lawrence’s play has been very streaky. He was PFF’s 11th-highest graded passer (71.1 passing grade) through the first three weeks, but PFF’s 4th-worst graded passer (44.7 passing grade) over the last five weeks, only beating out Brett Rypien, Taylor Heinicke, and Mac Jones over that stretch.

• Travis Etienne’s usage is just incredible. He earned 29.1 XFP in Week 8, the most of any player at any position. His snap share has jumped to 80% over the last two weeks – a mark that would rank 2nd-best among all RBs this season. And he’s logged 93% of backfield red zone opportunities (12 total) over the last two weeks. He’s a bell cow moving forward, even if he cedes some receiving work to JyMycal Hasty.

• Evan Engram’s usage remains quite underrated. He’s averaged 14.0 XFP/G (TE3) and 7.3 targets per game (TE3) over his last four games – marks that rank 2nd and 1st among slate-eligible TEs. Despite this, he’s priced as the TE12 on DraftKings this week ($3,300).

Matchups:

• The Raiders are the best matchup for opposing QBs, allowing +7.2 schedule-adjusted FPG. A great spot for Trevor Lawrence to correct course after a string of bad games.

• And Las Vegas is a great matchup for opposing slot WRs, allowing the most schedule-adjusted FPG (+7.0) – 43% more than the next-closest team. A great matchup for Christian Kirk, who has run 73% of his routes from the slot this season.

Indianapolis Colts (+5.5) @ New England Patriots (O/U: 39.5)

Trends:

• The Nyheim Hines trade may be good news for Jonathan Taylor’s pass volume. Hines was earning 4.0 targets per game and Taylor is IND’s 2nd-leading receiver out of the backfield. But, it could also result in a significant uptick in receiving volume for Deon Jackson – who had 14 targets for 108 receiving yards in his two games without Taylor.

• If Taylor were to absorb Hines’ target volume, that would help negate his gamescript dependency, as he averages a very pedestrian 14.6 FPG in losses, compared to 21.6 FPG in wins. The Colts implied win probability this week is just 33%.

• Still, the low ankle sprain injury Taylor is dealing with is cause for concern – further suggesting Hines vacated backfield targets will benefit Jackson more than Taylor.

• Michael Pittman earned his 3rd-best workload of the season in Week 8 (16.3 XFP), even with Sam Ehlinger starting and the offense looking rather inept overall. It’s reasonable to expect Pittman to see low-end WR1 volume agnostic of QB, granted he may not possess the upside many hoped he would this season.

• The Colts did their best to hide Ehlinger, ending Week 8 with their lowest pass rate over expectation of the season (-6%).

• Rhamondre Stevenson lost 11 of 28 backfield carries to Damien Harris last week, but Stevenson still dominated backfield XFP – earning 73% of the workload on 24 opportunities (7 targets). A 70/30 XFP split with Harris earning about 40-45% of backfield carries and minimal target volume appears the most likely scenario going forward.

• From The Week 9 XFP Report: On the full season, Jakobi Meyers ranks 8th in yardage market share (30.6%), 10th in YPRR (2.36), 11th in first-read target share (31.8%), 13th in FPG (15.9), 15th in TPRR (0.26), and 20th in air yardage market share (34.1%).

Matchups:

• IND has been a tough matchup for opposing slot WRs, allowing just -5.4 schedule-adjusted FPG to opposing slots (fewest).

• NE has been the single toughest matchup for opposing RBs this season, allowing just -3.5 schedule-adjusted FPG.

Buffalo Bills (-13) @ New York Jets (O/U: 47.5)

Trends:

• Josh Allen has played in 10 career games as a favorite of 10.0-points or more over the last three seasons, and the results have been rather pedestrian. He averages 24.9 DraftKings FPG in those contests (~QB4), and has only exceeded 30.0 DraftKings points in two of those games.

• The arrival of Nyheim Hines is an immediate downgrade for Devin Singletary. Singletary ranked 5th among all RBs in routes (187) and 13th in target share (12%), and we have to assume that pass game work will largely belong to Hines moving forward, given how desperate Buffalo has been to sign a pass-catching RB.

• After desperately trying to hide Zach Wilson when he initially returned from injury, New York seems to have shifted a bit more pass-happy in recent weeks, posting a +5.9% PROE – a mark that would rank 6th-highest over the full season.

• Elijah Moore played just 10 snaps in Week 8, running 7 routes and earning 0 targets. He’s likely complete dust until he’s traded, which isn’t happening this season.

• But, Moore's complete displacement from the offense has led to a rather concentrated target share around Garrett Wilson and Tyler Conklin.

• Conklin's 24% target share over the last three weeks ranks 3rd-best among TEs, behind only Travis Kelce and Kyle Pitts. And over the full season, Conklin ranks 3rd among slate-eligible TEs in FPG (10.1), 8th in XFP/G (9.5), 7th in targets per game (5.6), and 6th in air yards per game (45.0). Despite this, he ranks as the TE13 on DraftKings this week ($3,200), presenting obvious value.

• Garrett Wilson ranks 9th among WRs in first-read target share over the last three weeks (32.6%). No other Jets’ pass catcher is over 19% in that metric.

• Michael Carter earned 69% of backfield XFP in Week 8 (16.0). I think 60-70% of backfield XFP is a reasonable expectation for Carter moving forward, as James Robinson won’t be challenging Carter in the passing game.

Matchups:

• NYJ has been a tough matchup for opposing QBs, allowing the 9th-fewest schedule-adjusted FPG (-3.1).

• And the Jets have been a notable slot funnel this season, ranking as the 4th-toughest defense for opposing outside WRs by schedule-adjusted FPG (-5.2), but as the 10th-weakest to opposing slot WRs (+1.4). A solid matchup for Isaiah McKenzie.

• Buffalo is a brutal matchup for opposing TEs, allowing -5.5 schedule-adjusted FPG (3rd-toughest).

• BUF is also the 5th-toughest matchup for opposing RBs by schedule-adjusted FPG (-2.1) while allowing the 3rd-fewest yards after contact (420) and the 5th-lowest YPC (4.1).

Carolina Panthers (+7.5) @ Cincinnati Bengals (O/U: 42.5)

Trends:

• Chuba Hubbard returned to practice on Wednesday and could play in Week 9. Should he play, it’s a major hit to the fantasy value of D’Onta Foreman, who scored 31.8 fantasy points on an impressive 20.1 XFP workload. Hubbard appeared to work as the 1a in the backfield in Week 7 prior to his injury.

• PJ Walker is playing incredibly well, leading the NFL in “wow” throw rate (11.3%), while protecting the football as well as any QB since taking over as the Panthers’ starter. He has a better PFF passing grade (75.9) this season than Joe Burrow and Tom Brady.

• Walker’s incredible play has brought DJ Moore back from the dead. Over the last two weeks, Moore has earned 20.0 XFP/G and 23.6 FPG – marks that would both rank 4th-best among WRs over the full season.

• Terrace Marshall is a full-time player now. Over the last two weeks, he’s earned an 82% route share while ranking 2nd on the team with 12 total targets. The 16.3 XFP and 12.7 fantasy points he earned in Week 8 were both career highs. He’s the only player outside of DJ Moore with any fantasy value in this passing game.

• The Bengals didn’t opt to go run-heavy in Week 8, even with the absence of Ja’Marr Chase. CIN ranked 2nd among all Week 8 teams in pass rate over expectation (+13.9%). That’s awesome news for Joe Burrow, who averages 30.1 FPG in his nine career games with a PROE over +3.5%, but just 18.2 FPG in his other 15 games.

• Joe Mixon continues to be the most inefficient RB in the NFL, falling -5.1 FPG below his expectation. Maybe this is just who he is now? Mixon ranks dead last among 27 qualifying rushers in yards after contact per attempt (2.1), and the Bengals' offensive line is struggling, ranking 8th-worst in PFF team rushing grades (51.0). That said, I expect the Bengals to continue feeding Mixon a top-5 workload.

• Mixon should get helped out by likely positive gamescript this week, as he averages 18.3 FPG in his seven career games where the Bengals have been favored by 5.0-points or more, which is +3.7 FPG better than his season-long average.

• Mike Thomas only posted a 45% route share and 1 target in his first game without Chase, while Trenton Irwin earned a 40% route share and 3 targets. Neither player is viable in fantasy moving forward unless one of these tertiary WR options pushes for a full-time role.

Matchups:

• The Bengals have been a tough matchup for opposing QBs, allowing the 6th-fewest schedule-adjusted FPG (-3.7).

• The Panthers are a favorable matchup for opposing slot WRs, allowing the 6th-most schedule-adjusted FPG (+2.4). A plus matchup for Tyler Boyd.

Minnesota Vikings (-3.5) @ Washington Commanders (O/U: 43.5)

Trends:

• Dalvin Cook earned his best workload of the season in Week 8 (24.7 XFP). And he’s averaged a very strong 81% snap share over the last two weeks. We can safely assume he’s back to full health and should return to a top-6 workload at the position.

• TJ Hockenson to the Vikings was surely a surprise, but I’m not sure it’ll do much for his fantasy value overall. Irv Smith averaged a very pedestrian 7.8 XFP/G prior to his high ankle sprain – a workload that’s 28% worse than Hockenson’s usage was in Detriot (10.7 XFP/G). If Hockenson is the Irv Smith replacement, he likely suffers a slight demotion for fantasy purposes.

• Being a favorite boosts Kirk Cousins, who averages 23.3 FPG (QB4) as a favorite but just 18.9 FPG (QB7) as an underdog since 2020.

• Taylor Heinicke has started just two games this season, but the 18.2 FPG he’s averaged is good enough for QB8 on the season. His single-game upside remains rather underrated.

• Antonio Gibson earned 55% of backfield XFP in Week 8, his highest mark since Brian Robinson reentered the lineup. I still wouldn’t consider anybody in this backfield particularly valuable for fantasy, as it’s still a gross committee. But it’ll be worth monitoring to see if Gibson’s usage can trend upward given Robinson has averaged just 3.2 YPC.

Matchups:

• The Vikings are the 2nd-best matchup for opposing outside WRs per schedule-adjusted FPG (+8.7), and rank dead last in schedule-adjusted FPG allowed to outside WRs (+7.0). A great matchup for Terry McLaurin, who has lined up at left outside WR on 53% of his snaps this season.

• Washington has struggled against outside WRs, allowing the 3rd-most schedule-adjusted FPG (+7.3). Justin Jefferson and KJ Osborn both get a matchup boost here.

Seattle Seahawks (-4.5) @ Arizona Cardinals (O/U: 50.5)

Trends:

• Geno Smith continues to play as well as any QB in the NFL. On the season, he’s PFF’s 3rd-highest graded passer (84.8), has the 3rd-highest passer rating (107.2), and the 5th-highest EPA per play (0.08).

• Kenneth Walker earned 84% of backfield XFP (15.0), 34% of backfield routes, and 66% of backfield targets, despite the return of pass-catching RB Travis Homer – who logged a meager 20% route share in his first game back. Walker’s bell cow potential seems more locked in with each passing week.

• DK Metcalf averages 19.4 FPG as a favorite in games with a total over 48.0 (15 instances), which ranks 7th-best among slate-eligible WRs. Metcalf is the WR16 by DraftKings salary this week ($6,400).

• DeAndre Hopkins has been the Cardinals’ entire offense over the last two weeks. Among players with more than 10 targets, he leads the NFL in targets per route run (0.36), while ranking 2nd in target share (38%) and 2nd in first read share (48%), behind only Tyreek Hill.

• Rondale Moore saw his most encouraging usage of the season in Week 8, running a route on 98% of Kyler Murray’s dropbacks (52% slot share), while ranking 2nd on the team in both targets (8) and receiving yards (92). He also set a season-high in XFP (17.8). Assuming this is his role until Marquise Brown returns from IR, he’s a clear value priced as a high-end WR3 on both DFS sites.

• Darrel Williams played his first game since Week 5, and earned 36% of backfield XFP in his return, while Eno Benjamin earned the remaining work. I imagine this is a 60/40 split until James Conner returns from injury, severely limiting the upside of both rushers.

Matchups:

• Arizona is the 4th-toughest matchup for opposing RBs on the ground, allowing just -4.2 schedule-adjusted rushing FPG this season.

• Seattle is an outstanding matchup for opposing QBs, allowing the 3rd-most schedule-adjusted FPG (+6.2), and the 2nd-most schedule-adjusted rushing FPG to opposing QBs (+4.2). The ideal matchup for Kyler Murray.

• Seattle is also a strong matchup for opposing TEs, allowing +6.1 schedule-adjusted FPG (worst).

Los Angeles Rams (+3) @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers (O/U: 42.5)

Trends:

• Matthew Stafford is seriously struggling this season from a fantasy perspective, averaging just 11.9 FPG (QB30) and failing to exceed 19.0 fantasy points in any individual game.

• The reason for Stafford’s struggles? It seems to be entirely pressure related. The Rams are PFF’s 3rd-worst graded pass-blocking offensive line this season (52.3 team pass-blocking grade) after grading as the best pass-blocking offensive line last year (81.4). Unbelievably, Stafford has as many pressured dropbacks this season (169) as he did over the entirety of the 2021 regular season.

• And Stafford surely isn’t helped out by the Rams’ disastrous rushing attack. Rams RBs are averaging 13.8 FPG (last), 68.4 rushing YPG (2nd-worst), and 3.3 YPC (2nd-worst).

• Week 8 featured an incredibly gross committee for LAR, with Ronnie Rivers earning 41% of backfield XFP, Malcolm Brown earning 34%, and Darrell Henderson earning 24%.

• Among TEs, Higbee ranks 3rd in targets per game (7.3) and 4th in XFP/G (12.1), but he hasn’t produced as of late, failing to exceed 4.0 fantasy points in either of his last two games. This has led to a massive DraftKings price drop for Higbee, who has fallen to his lowest DK salary ($3,700) of the season – the cheapest he’s been overall since Week 17 of the 2020 season (670 days ago). He’s one of the most obvious volume-based values of Week 9.

• No main slate QB has scored at least 4X their Week 9 salary as often as Tom Brady (44%). He’s tied for his cheapest DraftKings price ever ($6,000) since joining the Bucs.

• Mike Evans and Cooper Kupp are the only WRs with three games of 25.0 or more XFP. Evans has exceeded this mark in back-to-back games, granted it hasn’t translated to any big fantasy performances, as he’s averaged just 18.5 FPG over the last two weeks.

Matchups:

• The Rams have been a brutal matchup for opposing QBs, allowing the 3rd-fewest schedule-adjusted FPG (-5.6).

• LAR has been the single-toughest matchup for opposing slot WRs, allowing -8.5 schedule-adjusted FPG. But they are a much more favorable matchup for opposing outside WRs, allowing -2.5 schedule-adjusted FPG (10th-toughest). This should result in targets being directed more toward Mike Evans and Julio Jones than to Chris Godwin.

• LAR is also the 3rd-toughest matchup for opposing TEs, allowing -6.3 schedule-adjusted FPG. Bad news for Cade Otton.

• TB is a plus matchup for opposing QBs, allowing the 5th-most schedule-adjusted passing FPG (+4.3). A good matchup for Stafford.