Week 8 DFS Study Hall

DFS research can be tough. We may not always know what to look for, or where to look for it.

But this article helps solve that problem – by providing some early-week research to give readers solid footing for the upcoming Week 8 DFS slate.

Arizona Cardinals (+3.5) @ Minnesota Vikings (O/U: 49.0)

Trends:

• Kyler Murray needs Arizona to win this game to get there for fantasy. He averages 31.3 FPG in wins across his career, compared to 23.2 FPG in losses.

• Murray’s rushing has picked up a bit recently. In Weeks 1 through 3, he averaged just 4.0 carries per game and 1.8 designed carries per game. From Weeks 4 through 7, that jumped to 8.3 carries per game and 6.3 designed carries per game.

• In his first game back from suspension, DeAndre Hopkins earned 21.9 XFP (6th-best among all players) and an insane 50% target share.

• AJ Green is healthy, but he didn’t play in Week 7. This led to Greg Dortch leading the team with 15 total slot routes and Rondale Moore running 79% of his routes on the outside. Assuming this continues, Dortch should be the more valuable player for fantasy, as Arizona's lead slot WR has averaged 14.0 FPG. In comparison, Moore has averaged a pitiful 3.9 FPG in his two games playing primarily outside.

• The Arizona backfield shifted more towards a committee in Week 7, with Keaontay Ingram earning 30% of snaps and 45% of backfield XFP, compared to 13% of snaps and 11% of backfield XFP in Week 6.

• Minnesota has the 3rd-highest implied team total of the Week 8 main slate (26.0).

• In home games with a total of 48 or higher, Kirk Cousins has averaged 24.1 FPG (~QB3) since joining the Vikings. He’s been incredibly impressive in wins within that split, averaging 27.8 FPG (~QB1). The Vikings implied win probability this week is 66%.

• Like most RBs, Dalvin Cook is extremely sensitive to winning games. He averages 23.3 FPG in wins but just 16.4 FPG in losses.

• With that said, Cook’s workload hasn’t been as good as last year. He’s averaging 5.1 fewer XFP/G this season (13.1 XFP/G total), and he hasn’t earned more than 20.0 XFP in an individual game after doing so in 33% of his games last season.

• Adam Thielen’s workload remains underrated. Over his last five games, Thielen has averaged 16.4 XFP/G – a mark that would tie Michael Pittman for the 11th-best workload among WRs this season.

Matchups:

• DeAndre Hopkins seldom leaves the left side of the field. 83% of his snaps came from the left outside WR alignment last year, and that trend looks true again in 2022. I bring that up because Minnesota is the 6th-best matchup for opposing left outside WRs this season, allowing +3.2 schedule-adjusted FPG.

• This also shapes up as a quality matchup for Zach Ertz, as MIN is giving up the 6th-most schedule-adjusted FPG to TEs (+3.9).

• Per PFF coverage grades, this is a strong matchup for both passing attacks. ARI ranks 3rd-worst, while MIN ranks 2nd-worst.

Miami Dolphins (-3) @ Detroit Lions (O/U: 50.5)

Trends:

• Tua Tagovailoa has only played in three full games this season, averaging 23.2 FPG (QB5, better than Lamar Jackson) and 333.3 passing YPG (1st).

• Tagovailoa also ranks 3rd-best in fantasy points per dropback (0.54), behind only Patrick Mahomes and Josh Allen.

• Raheem Mostert has logged at least a 61% snap share and 14 touches in his last four games. Mostert, Derrick Henry, Josh Jacobs, and Saquon Barkley are the only RBs to accomplish this feat in each of their last four games. Despite this, Mostert is priced as the RB19 on both sites.

• Mike Gesicki has seen an increase in offensive involvement in the last two weeks. He averaged just 3.6 XFP/G and 2.4 targets per game in Weeks 1 through 5, but 13.5 XFP/G (~TE3) and 7.0 targets per game (TE5) over his last two games.

• It may have been due to injury, but Jaylen Waddle’s target share has fallen off the last three weeks, while Tyreek Hill’s has remained at a league-leading level. Over the last three games, Hill is averaging 11.7 targets per game (31% target share) while Waddle has earned just 6.3 targets per game (22% share).

• Hill has scored over 40.0 DraftKings points in 9% of his games with a total of 49.0 or higher over the last five seasons. Truly insane slate-breaking upside.

• And, Hill averages an absurd 32.8 FPG in games he’s earned at least 12 targets over the last five seasons (17 instances). He’s earned at least 12 targets in five games this season, while the next closest player (Cooper Kupp) has earned at least 12 targets in just three games.

• Amon-Ra St. Brown is averaging 11.4 targets and 26.3 FPG over his last 8 healthy games. (Hitting a low of 10 targets only once and exceeding 20.0 fantasy points in 7 of those 8 games.) For perspective, that’s the same targets per game and 0.7 FPG more than Cooper Kupp since the start of 2021.

• St. Brown ($6,900 on DraftKings) is at his cheapest since Week 2 of this season.

Matchups:

• Miami is a fantastic matchup for RBs, especially if they catch the ball. The rank last in schedule-adjusted FPG allowed to RBs (+5.5) and last in schedule-adjusted receiving FPG allowed to opposing RBs (+5.4). Hopefully D’Andre Swift plays in this contest.

• By schedule-adjusted FPG, Detroit is the 3rd-best matchup for opposing QBs (+4.4), the 6th-best matchup for opposing RBs (+2.1), and the 2nd-best matchup for opposing TEs (+6.2). A fantastic matchup for the Miami offense as a whole.

• Detriot is allowing the 2nd-most FPG to opposing RBs this season (29.5), the 3rd-highest YPC (5.3), and the 2nd-most rushing YPG (162.8). So, this is the ideal spot for Raheem Mostert – who has the same career YPC as Bo Jackson (5.4).

Chicago Bears (+9.5) @ Dallas Cowboys (O/U: 42.5):

Trends:

• Justin Fields has averaged 20.2 FPG over his last three games – a mark that would rank as QB6 over the full season.

• Last season, only two QBs (Lamar Jackson and Josh Allen) had multiple games of 80 or more rushing yards. Justin Fields has exceeded 80 rushing yards in each of the last two games.

• Fields’ raw passing volume has climbed over these last four weeks to 22.8 pass attempts per game, compared to just 15.0 pass attempts per game in his first three games. Another positive sign for the young QB.

• And, Fields' fantasy points per dropback has skyrocketed recently, increasing from a pathetic 0.35 in the first four weeks of the season (2nd-worst), to 0.50 over the last three weeks (7th-best).

• The Bears backfield is shaping up as a near-even split between Khalil Herbert and David Montgomery. Still, I think Montgomery has the edge overall (for fantasy purposes), given he’s logged 14 red zone snaps over the last two weeks, compared to just 5 for Herbert.

• No Bears pass catcher logged double-digit XFP in an individual game for the first four weeks. But Darnell Mooney has exceeded 10.0 XFP in each of his last three games, averaging 13.7 XFP/G over that stretch (~WR26). Still far from elite volume, but strong enough to stack him with Fields in DFS, given Mooney’s $4,800 DraftKings price tag (WR33).

• Dak Prescott re-entering the lineup might not be great news for CeeDee Lamb, who averages just 14.2 FPG (~WR21) with Prescott under center. He’s the WR9 by DraftKings salary this week ($7,000).

• Ezekiel Elliott looks likely to be out in Week 8. Tony Pollard has just one career game without Zeke, and he earned 9 targets, 132 YFS, and 31.2 fantasy points.

• Dalton Schultz is losing some work to Peyton Hendershot and Jake Ferguson, which is concerning. Last week, Schultz earned 63% of positional XFP, compared to 100% of positional XFP in his first two games. This is likely due to injury, which makes me think it’ll continue.

Matchups:

• Dallas has been a very tough matchup for opposing QBs this season, allowing -6.3 schedule-adjusted FPG (2nd-toughest).

• But, the Cowboys are the 4th-best matchup for opposing slot WRs, allowing +4.8 schedule-adjusted FPG. Darnell Mooney has run 61% of his routes from the slot this season, and I think he’s very much in play this week.

• The Bears are a brutal matchup for opposing outside WRs, allowing -9.2 schedule-adjusted FPG (3rd-toughest).

Las Vegas Raiders (-2) @ New Orleans Saints (O/U: 48.5)

Trends:

• Only six players have multiple games of 30.0 or more fantasy points. Josh Jacobs has exceeded 30.0 fantasy points in each of his last three games.

• Jacobs is PFF’s highest-graded rusher (92.0). And among players with at least 4 games played, he’s been the 2nd-most efficient RB in the NFL, exceeding his usage-based expectation by +5.2 FPG.

• The most games in a season with 140 or more rushing yards is seven. Jacobs has exceeded that mark in his last three games, and I suppose he could push to tie, or even break, that record if he keeps playing like he is.

• Jacobs averages an impressive 22.0 FPG in games Las Vegas has been favored since 2019, compared to just 16.0 FPG in all other games.

• Derek Carr has just one game of 25.0 or more fantasy points since 2019. The lowest rate of any QB to start each of the last three seasons.

• Andy Dalton ranks 4th among slate-eligible QBs in fantasy points per dropback (0.46).

• Alvin Kamara’s usage has been nothing short of elite in his last three games. He’s averaging 22.0 XFP/G, a 23.5% target share, and 4.7 red zone opportunities per game – marks that rank 2nd-best, best, and 3rd-best among RBs.

• But despite that great usage, Kamara is just $7,100 on DraftKings (RB7). That’s $1,141 cheaper than his average salary throughout all of 2021.

• Chris Olave has three games with 13 or more targets this season, the 2nd-most of any player (tied with Cooper Kupp). If you compare Olave to the five healthy main slate WRs who have as many or more double-digit target games as he does (Cooper Kupp, Justin Jefferson, Davante Adams, Tyreek Hill, and CeeDee Lamb) you’ll notice that Olave is, on average, $2,560 cheaper than that cohort on DraftKings.

Matchups:

• The Raiders are an awesome matchup for opposing QBs, ranking dead last in schedule-adjusted FPG allowed (+10.7), and dead last in schedule-adjusted passing FPG allowed (+7.2). A great matchup for Dalton.

• LV is also the stone nuts matchup for opposing slot WRs, allowing +9.7 schedule-adjusted FPG (worst) – a mark that’s 59% worse than the 2nd-worst team. That’s good news for Tre’Quan Smith, who has led the team in slot routes in Jarvis Landry’s absence.

• Some people might be scared off Josh Jacobs due to New Orleans' reputation for a fearsome run defense, but they have given up +0.2 schedule-adjusted FPG to opposing RBs this season, so they are likely a neutral matchup at worst.

• The Saints also shape up as a strong matchup for Davante Adams and Mack Hollins, as they’ve given up the 2nd-most schedule-adjusted FPG to opposing WRs (+6.5).

Carolina Panthers (+4.5) @ Atlanta Falcons (O/U: 42.0)

Trends:

• PJ Walker was the highest-graded QB of Week 7, per PFF (94.0 passing grade).

• It was a truly incredible turnaround for Walker, scheme-wise. In Week 6, 63% of Walker’s pass attempts were screens and he posted a truly pathetic 0.1 aDOT. But Week 7 was a total shift – only 18% of Walker’s passes were screens and he posted a much more normalized 8.5 aDOT. As it turns out, the coaches really do trust him.

• And this borderline shocking scheme shift is great news for DJ Moore – who earned an absurd 46% target share and had a season-high 19.6 fantasy points in Week 7.

• Should we continue to expect strong usage for Moore? I lean yes, as no QB (Min. 100 attempts) has targeted outside WRs at a higher rate than Walker since 2017 (52% of throws).

• The Panthers did appear to favor Chuba Hubbard over D’Onta Foreman in Week 7, granted both players ended the game with identical usage (9.8 XFP) at least in part due to Hubbard’s ankle injury.

• Kyle Pitts saw his 2nd-best best usage of the season in Week 7 (14.1 XFP), while Drake London saw his worst usage of the season (1.5 XFP). I’m not sure this means anything, but it does illustrate the volatility of their usage given Atlanta’s absolutely brutal -19.2% pass rate over expectation since Week 4 (last).

Matchups:

• Atlanta is the ultimate pass funnel, allowing the highest pass rate over expectation (+9.2%). And they rank as the 3rd-best matchup for opposing WRs by schedule-adjusted FPG allowed (+8.2). A fantastic spot for DJ Moore.

• Atlanta also looks like a solid matchup for PJ Walker, as they’ve allowed the 4th-most schedule-adjusted FPG to opposing QBs this season (+4.1).

New England Patriots (-1.5) @ New York Jets (O/U: 41.5)

Trends:

• Bailey Zappe ranks 4th among slate-eligible QBs in fantasy points per dropback (0.46). He’s also PFF’s 7th-highest graded QB over the last three weeks (77.9 passing grade). He can ball. But, that’s not particularly relevant given Mac Jones has been named the Week 8 starter.

• Despite Damien Harris logging a full week of practice, Rhamondre Stevenson earned 78% of carries, 80% of backfield targets, 77% of snaps, and 81% of backfield XFP. If he’s not a bell cow already, he’s headed in that direction.

• Tyquan Thornton is a full-time player, even with the return of Nelson Agholor. Thornton has earned a 77% route share over the last three weeks, while tying for the team lead in deep targets (3) and earning 9.4 XFP/G (WR64).

• Since Zach Wilson took over at QB in Week 4, there has been only one instance of a Jets’ pass catcher going over 10.0 XFP (Corey Davis in Week 4).

Matchups:

• New England has been a strong matchup for outside WRs this season, allowing +5.1 schedule-adjusted FPG (4th-worst). A boost for Corey Davis.

• The Jets have been a brutal matchup for opposing QBs, allowing the 4th-fewest schedule-adjusted FPG (-5.7), the 5th-fewest YPA (6.4), and the 4th-fewest percentage of throws to go 15 or more yards (6.1%).

• And NYJ is a terrible matchup for opposing outside WRs, allowing the fewest schedule-adjusted FPG (-9.6). They rank much closer to neutral against slot WRs, so if there is a NE player to target after Rhamondre Stevenson, it would be Jakobi Meyers.

Pittsburgh Steelers (+10.5) @ Philadelphia Eagles (O/U: 43.5)

Trends:

• Najee Harris looks to be complete dust, despite the 11th-most touches in the NFL to date (118). He’s averaging 3.3 YPC (2nd-worst) and 2.67 yards after contact per attempt (8th-worst) – leading to just 10.9 FPG, 2.3 FPG lower than his usage-based expectation.

• Diontae Johnson has earned 19.1 XFP/G in the three games Kenny Pickett has started – a mark that ranks 7th-best among slate-eligible WRs, yet Johnson is priced as the WR22 on DraftKings ($5,600), his cheapest price since Week 10 of 2020.

• In losses of 7-points or more, Johnson averages 12.6 targets per game and 16.0 FPG.

• The Eagles blowing out all their opponents limits Jalen Hurts fantasy upside. 81% of Hurts' fantasy scoring this season has come in the first half of his games (19.6 FPG), and he’s averaging just 4.7 FPG in the 2nd-half of games. So, we could argue Hurts only offers slate-breaking upside if the Steelers can keep the game close, which seems rather unlikely, given the 10.5-point spread on this game.

• Miles Sanders has thrived in these game environments historically, averaging 19.3 FPG when the Eagles win by 7-points or more since 2021. Among slate-eligible RBs, 19.3 FPG would rank 3rd-best, but Sanders is priced as the RB9 on DraftKings ($6,600).

Matchups:

• Pittsburgh has been a strong matchup for opposing QBs and WRs this season, allowing +3.9 schedule-adjusted FPG to QBs (6th-worst) and +8.2 schedule-adjusted FPG to opposing WRs (3rd-worst).

• The Eagles have been a tough matchup for opposing QBs, allowing -5.9 schedule-adjusted FPG (3rd-best).

• Interestingly, PHI has been extremely tough against right WRs, allowing -5.6 schedule-adjusted FPG (4th-best), while allowing +3.9 schedule-adjusted FPG to left WRs (3rd-worst). Given that Diontae Johnson has played 52% of his snaps from the LWR alignment, compared to 37% from the RWR alignment, we could argue this is a favorable matchup for the underpriced WR.

Tennessee Titans (-2.5) @ Houston Texans (O/U: 40.5)

Trends:

• Since Week 2, no Titans pass catcher has exceeded 11.0 XFP in an individual game. A truly abysmal passing attack for fantasy purposes.

• Since 2019, Derrick Henry averages 27.5 FPG in wins, but just 14.4 FPG in losses. The Titans implied win probability this week is 57%.

• From The Week 8 XFP Report: Last week, Dameon Pierce handled 87% of the backfield’s carries but only 24% of the targets out of the backfield. However, digging deeper, if we exclude the final two drives of the game (when the Texans were down multiple scores with zero chance of winning the game), those numbers jump to 100% and 50%.

Matchups:

• The Titans have been a strong matchup for opposing QBs this season, allowing +3.8 schedule-adjusted FPG (6th-most). Interestingly, Davis Mills has just one matchup so far this season against a bottom-10 QB defense (by schedule-adjusted FPG) and he threw for 302 yards and scored 19.1 fantasy points – marks that are 44% and 71% better than his season-long averages in his other five games.

• The Titans are a brutal matchup for opposing RBs, allowing -6.3 schedule-adjusted FPG (toughest). Rough matchup for Dameon Pierce.

• TEN is a very strong matchup for opposing slot WRs, allowing +6.1 schedule-adjusted FPG (2nd-most). Last week, we saw HOU slot WR Chris Moore lead the Texans’ pass catchers in XFP last week (8.2) in the best possible matchup for opposing slot WRs (Las Vegas). He’s only $3,400 on DraftKings, and I think he’s a very strong play on the afternoon-only slate, granted only moderately viable in massive GPPs on the main slate.

• HOU is a strong matchup for opposing rushers, allowing the 4th-most schedule-adjusted rushing FPG to opposing RBs (+3.0), alongside the 4th-highest percentage of explosive plays (6.9%), and the 4th-highest YPC (5.2). Opposing offenses have recognized this, leading to HOU allowing the 5th-lowest pass rate over expectation (-1.5%). A great matchup for Derrick Henry.

New York Giants (+3) @ Seattle Seahawks (O/U: 45.0)

Trends:

• Daniel Jones leads all QBs in rushing FPG (10.0) over their last four games. He hasn’t thrown for more than 220 yards in a contest this season, so this rushing production is keeping his fantasy viability alive.

• Saquon Barkley’s upside is largely based around winning and losing. He averages a very impressive 27.8 FPG in his 28 career wins, and just 17.3 FPG in losses.

• Wan’Dale Robinson is by far NYG’s most-targeted player on a per-route basis, earning a TPRR of 0.29 this season – a mark that rivals WRs like Stefon Diggs (0.28) and Justin Jefferson (0.27).

• So, if we prescribe Robinson a 90% route share and assume his TPRR remains the same, he would be looking at around 8.8 targets per game – a mark that would rank 9th-best among slate-eligible WRs. Yet, Robinson is priced as the WR36 on DraftKings this week ($4,700).

• From The Week 8 XFP Report: Seattle’s RB1 averages 18.5 FPG (~RB4) over the team’s last 12 games, averaging 24.2 FPG (~RB1) in wins over this span.

• From The Week 8 XFP Report: Over the last two weeks, Kenneth Walker is averaging 22.5 carries, 1.5 targets, 132.5 rushing YPG (6.0 YPC), and 23.9 FPG. He’s played on 72% of the team’s snaps over this span, earning a season-high 50% route share last week.

• DK Metcalf is likely out this week. That should lead to Marquise Goodwin stepping into a full-time role, as he ran the 2nd-most routes last week (22) and earned the 2nd-most targets (5). Goodwin averages an impressive 15.4 FPG (~WR14) in his 11 career games with 6 or more targets. He’s the WR46 by DraftKings salary this week ($4,400).

Matchups:

• SEA is the 3rd-best matchup for opposing QBs, allowing +6.9 schedule-adjusted FPG. And they’ve been extremely vulnerable to QB rushing, allowing +4.6 schedule-adjusted FPG to QBs on the ground (most). An awesome matchup for Daniel Jones.

• SEA is the 3rd-best matchup for opposing RBs by schedule-adjusted FPG, allowing +3.4 FPG. A boost for Saquon Barkley.

San Francisco 49ers (-1.5) @ Los Angeles Rams (O/U: 43.0)

Trends:

• Week 7 was Deebo Samuel’s worst usage of the season (12.2 XFP), and the first time in 22 games he failed to exceed double-digit fantasy points. Samuel also had just one carry, his lowest total since Week 9 of 2021. It isn’t hard to imagine that his backfield usage takes a hit with Christian McCaffrey now on the team, meaning he’s almost certainly overpriced this week at $7,500 (WR6 by salary) on DraftKings.

• Brandon Aiyuk may have usurped Samuel as the 49ers’ WR1. Aiyuk has averaged 20.3 XFP/G, 11.0 targets per game, and 21.8 FPG over his last two games – marks that rank 2nd-, 5th-, and 3rd-best among slate-eligible WRs.

• From The Week 8 XFP Report: George Kittle has seen a route share of at least 75% and a target share of at least 19.5% in each of his last three games. The last time he went three straight games hitting each benchmark he averaged 29.5 FPG. And over the last two seasons, he averages 19.4 FPG when hitting both thresholds.

• Kittle is easily the closest thing we have to an oligarch TE on the Week 8 main slate, and crucially, he’s $2,000 cheaper than Mark Andrews and Travis Kelce were (on average) in Week 7.

• Cooper Kupp averages a rather incredible 16.0 targets per game and 28.8 FPG in his 8 games against divisional opponents since the start of 2021.

• The Rams' offensive line appears truly disastrous, ranking 3rd-worst in PFF pass-blocking grades (50.3) – a massive step back from 2021 when they ranked 1st in PFF pass-blocking grades (81.3).

Matchups:

• SF has been a strong matchup for opposing slot WRs this season, allowing +5.2 schedule-adjusted FPG (3rd-most). Great news for Cooper Kupp.

• LAR is the 6th-toughest schedule-adjusted matchup for opposing QBs (-5.1) and the toughest schedule-adjusted matchup for opposing TEs (-7.2).

Washington Commanders (+3) @ Indianapolis Colts (O/U: 40.0)

Trends:

• Sam Ehlinger is the DFS elephant in the room this week, as he costs only $4,000 on DraftKings, by far the lowest price I can ever remember for a starting QB.

• Ehlinger wasn’t known for his passing prowess in college, but he could certainly run. Over his career, Ehlinger averaged 9.7 rushing FPG – a mark that’s nearly identical to the 9.6 rushing FPG that Justin Fields averaged in his 22 career games at Ohio State.

• Ehlinger was also quite aggressive throwing the ball downfield in the 2022 preseason, posting the 11th-highest aDOT (9.5) of the 60 preseason QBs to drop back at least 30 times.

• A similar trend emerged for Ehlinger in his final two college seasons, as he ranked in the top third of college QBs in aDOT in each of his final two seasons.

• This all shapes up as good news for Alec Pierce, who has the highest-aDOT of IND’s full-time WRs (12.0) – nearly double that of Michael Pittman (6.8).

• Brian Robinson has 37 rush attempts over his last two games, but his efficiency has been dreadful, averaging just 3.6 YPC.

• Curtis Samuel is still seeing the best usage of any WR on Washington, having led the WR corps in XFP in five of seven weeks, including Week 7 (15.1 XFP). Samuel ranks 10th among slate-eligible WRs in targets per game (8.6) and 12th in XFP/G (14.8), but is the WR25 by DraftKings salary ($5,300).

Matchups:

• Washington has been a strong matchup for opposing QBs this season, allowing the 4th-most schedule-adjusted FPG (+4.2).

• And the Commanders have been an even stronger matchup for opposing outside WRs, allowing the most schedule-adjusted FPG (+11.1) – 71% worse than the 2nd-worst team in that metric (Tennessee). A good sign for Alec Pierce.

• The Colts are by far the worst matchup for opposing slot WRs, allowing -10.0 schedule-adjusted FPG,70% better than the No. 2 team in that metric (Detriot).