FANTASY POINTS DATA: WEEK 9 CHART PORN

Charting NFL football and trying to quantify a game that is in many ways unquantifiable is one of the edges that fantasy football players are still trying to grasp.

It’s also not a unique endeavor. Other companies do it. NFL teams do it.

But with Fantasy Points Data — a project that we’ve had in the works for the better part of a year — we wanted to answer one big question: What if we tailored all of the data our team has gathered (hand-charted from our team of experts) directly to the fantasy player?

Based on years of playing season-long fantasy, dynasty, and DFS — and using all the charted data out there to build models and try to gain an advantage in a game where the margins are shrinking — we believe we’ve found where we can do things better. And we have tools in development that we think fantasy players will go absolutely crazy for. We believe, in all humility, we’re going to do this better than anyone else, and it will unequivocally blow your mind.

We’re excited to show you those tools when they’re tested, re-tested, and tested again, but what we can tell you is that the tools will be efficient, clean, and simplistic. You won’t need to be a data scientist to decipher them. And getting those tools to a place where an Average Joe (Dolan) can look at them and say “this makes sense” has been our main goal. Best of all, these tools will be available free of charge for the remainder of the 2022 season.

This is not the finished product, but we wanted to give you a sneak peek of what we’ve been working on behind the scenes for months. These charts, stats, and tools will all eventually be native to Fantasy Points with a user-friendly interface. We’re sure you’ll love them.

Schedule-Adjusted FPG Allowed (Team Weaknesses)

Quick Analysis

How to use this chart: Look for key team weaknesses and funnel spots. Defenses mostly in the red but with 1-2 greens.

• Trevor Lawrence has the top matchup for opposing QBs (+7.2), while slot WR Christian Kirk has by far the best matchup among slot WRs (+7.0). It’s a much tougher matchup for the outside WRs (-4.2, 7th-toughest), but Evan Engram’s matchup ranks top-10 (+2.4).

• Zach Ertz has the 2nd-best matchup for TEs, worth in real terms +5.8 FPG over his expectation.

• Justin Herbert has the 2nd-best schedule-adjusted matchup for opposing QBs (+6.6) and his WRs have by far the best matchup, worth in real terms +13.0 FPG over their expectation.

• Washington has funneled production to outside WRs this season, allowing the 3rd-most schedule-adjusted FPG to opposing outside WRs (+7.9), but rank 10th-best against slot WRs (-1.4). Great news for Justin Jefferson, who already leads the league with an absurd 42.5% yardage share.

• The Vikings are the top overall matchup for opposing LWRs, per schedule-adjusted FPG allowed (+6.4), while also ranking as the 4th-best matchup for opposing outside WRs (+5.3). Ergo this is a great spot for Terry McLaurin, who has lined up at left outside WR on 53% of his snaps this season (6th-most among all starting WRs). And he’s exceeded 18.0 DK fantasy points in each of his two games with Taylor Heinicke under center this year.

• Seattle ranks as the 2nd-best schedule-adjusted matchup for opposing rushing QBs (+3.4), and as the 4th-best schedule-adjusted matchup for QBs overall (+4.6). Certainly worthy of a boost to Kyler Murray’s expectation this week.

Schedule-Adjusted FPG Allowed (Basic)

WR Schedule-Adjusted FPG Allowed

Quick Analysis

• With Mike Williams and Keenan Allen both likely out, Josh Palmer and Michael Bandy have the 2nd-best matchup for outside WRs this week, worth +7.1 FPG over their expectation in real terms… Palmer averages 16.8 XFP/G (~WR10) and 15.3 FPG (~WR13) in his four fully healthy games without Allen… DeAndre Carter has the 4th-best matchup for opposing slot WRs, worth +3.9 over his expectation in real terms.
• Christian Kirk runs 75% of his routes from the slot, and Las Vegas ranks worst in schedule-adjusted FPG allowed to opposing slot WRs (+7.0), although 8th-best against outside WRs (-4.2).
• Drake London has the 3rd-best matchup for outside WRs, worth +5.3 FPG over his expectation in real terms. Kyle Pitts, though, has the 9th-toughest matchup for opposing TEs, worth -2.4 FPG below his expectation in real terms.
• Mike Evans has led all WRs in XFP in back-to-back weeks, and has a very favorable matchup this week (assuming Jalen Ramsey doesn’t shadow); the Rams are giving up the 5th-most schedule-adjusted FPG to opposing outside WRs (+5.3).
• Over the past two seasons, Tyler Boyd averaged 6.5 targets and 13.3 FPG (~WR26) in his four games without Tee Higgins or Ja’Marr Chase. He gets a Carolina Panthers defense that ranks 6th-worst in schedule-adjusted FPG allowed to opposing slot WRs (+2.4).
• Derrick Henry has the 3rd-best matchup for RBs, worth +4.2 FPG over his expectation. But, digging deeper, almost all of that has come through the air (+4.4) rather than on the ground (-0.2), so maybe this matchup isn’t quite as soft as it seems.
• Miles Sanders (+7.5) has arguably the best matchup of the week, up against a Texans defense that’s surrendered +7.5 schedule-adjusted rushing FPG to opposing RBs.
• Joe Mixon gets a favorable matchup against the Panthers, who rank 6th-worst overall (+2.1), 8th-worst on the ground (+1.0), and 8th-worst through the air (+1.1).
• After leading all RBs in XFP last week, Travis Etienne gets a Las Vegas defense that’s given up the 5th-most schedule-adjusted FPG to opposing RBs (+3.2).

FPG Allowed to WR1s / WR2s

Quick Analysis

• No team is giving up more DK FPG to opposing WR1s than Kansas City, suggesting a strong matchup for Robert Woods.
• The Falcons have been the 3rd-worst team against opposing WR1s this season, allowing 21.5 DraftKings FPG. Another positive note for Josh Palmer.
• The Rams are giving up the 4th-most FPG to opposing WR1s (+20.8). Another positive note for Mike Evans.
• Arizona has been remarkably tough against opposing WR1s this season, allowing just 12.3 DraftKings FPG. D.K. Metcalf scored just 5.4 DraftKings FPG the last time he played Arizona, in Week 6.
• Green Bay has shut down opposing WR2s, allowing just 5.9 DraftKings FPG. But GB has funneled production to WR1s, ranking as the 9th-best matchup by DraftKings FPG allowed (17.7). Bad news for Josh Reynolds, but a plus for Amon-Ra St. Brown.

Deep Passing YPG Allowed

Quick Analysis

• The Titans have been the most vulnerable team to deep passing this season, allowing 82.1 YPG on deep passes – 24% more YPG than the 2nd-worst team. A good sign for Marquez Valdes-Scantling, who has the highest aDOT among KC WRs with at least 10 targets (12.7). Or perhaps Mecole Hardman who leads the team in deep targets per game (1.6).
• Washington has given up the 4th-most deep passing YPG (63.8). So that’s another reason to like Justin Jefferson and Kirk Cousins this week.
• Baltimore has been vulnerable to the deep ball this season, allowing the 4th-most FPG (8.5) and the 5th-most YPG (63.3). A great matchup for Chris Olave, who ranks 1st in air yards per game (150.7).
• Arizona ranks as the 4th-toughest matchup on deep throws by YPG allowed (20.9) and FPG allowed (2.8). Bad news for DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett, each of whom has an aDOT over 12.0.

QB FPG Allowed

Quick Analysis

• The Lions are the 3rd-best matchup for opposing QBs by FPG allowed (22.0), the 2nd-best matchup by passer rating allowed (136.9), and the 6th-best matchup by passing FPG allowed (17.6). A great matchup for Aaron Rodgers.
• Green Bay has been a very tough matchup for opposing QBs, allowing the 4th-fewest FPG (13.1) and the 3rd-fewest passing FPG (11.0). So don’t expect much from Jared Goff.
• Washington hasn’t given up a ton of production to opposing QBs (17.7), but they rank dead-last in opposing passer rating (143.9) and passing fantasy points allowed per pass attempt (0.86). So, expect an efficient game from Kirk Cousins this week.

RB FPG Allowed

Quick Analysis

• By YPC allowed, there isn’t a more inefficient run defense than LAC (6.1 YPC). That’s worth a boost to Cordarrelle Patterson, who has a very impressive 5.2 career YPC.
• Kansas City has been extremely vulnerable to opposing receiving RBs, allowing a league-leading 16.8 FPG, while ranking as the 4th-toughest matchup for opposing RBs on the ground, allowing just 10.4 FPG. For the SNF showdown slate, that’s worth a boost to Dontrell Hilliard while hurting Derrick Henry’s expectation on the ground (rushing FPG has been 81% of Henry’s fantasy scoring this season).
• Las Vegas has been the 2nd-worst defense against opposing receiving RBs, allowing 16.1 FPG this season. Worth a boost to Travis Etienne.

TE Funnel Defenses (% of Total Receiving Fantasy Points Allowed to TEs)

Quick Analysis

• There isn’t a better matchup for opposing TEs than the Arizona Cardinals. They’ve allowed the most FPG (19.4) and the highest % of total receiving FPG to opposing TEs (33.9%). A great spot for Will Dissly and Noah Fant.
• Similarly, Seattle is also a great matchup for opposing TEs, giving up the 3rd-most FPG (15.2), and the 2nd-highest % of total receiving FPG to opposing TEs (29.8%).
• Washington is a brutal matchup for opposing TEs, allowing the lowest percentage of total receiving FPG (12.7%) and the 3rd-lowest FPG (6.5). I wouldn’t have high hopes for T.J. Hockenson in his first game with his new team.

Fantasy Points Over Expectation (XFP)

Quick Analysis

• By FPG allowed over expectation, Miami has been the least efficient team for opposing RBs on the ground. But, interestingly, they’ve been the most efficient team for opposing RBs through the air. That could mean the Bears attempt to throw more to David Montgomery (their leading backfield receiver), but I’m not particularly optimistic as he only has 13 catches on the year.
• The Rams have allowed 118% more FPG than expected to opposing outside WRs, suggesting Mike Evans could finally have a big game, as he’s seen position-leading usage over the last two weeks (26.0 XFP/G).
• The Lions have been a very favorable matchup for opposing TEs, allowing 132% more FPG than expected. Great news for Robert Tonyan, who will likely function as the No. 2 pass catcher in GB if Allen Lazard is sidelined.
• Allen Lazard averages 15.8 FPG (~WR14) across his four healthy games this season. Detroit is giving up the most fantasy points over expectation to opposing slot WRs (+150%), where Lazard ran 63% of his routes in Week 7 (with Sammy Watkins back).

OL vs. DL (Rushing / Passing)

Quick Analysis

• Las Vegas is projected for the worst overall rushing matchup, based on the average of their yards before contact per attempt and the opposing defenses yards before contact per attempt allowed. This is a red flag for Josh Jacobs, granted he’s been so efficient this season that it’s far from a death blow to his fantasy value.
• The Jacksonville offensive line has been remarkably efficient this season, leading the NFL in yards before contact per attempt (2.53). That should help continue Travis Etienne’s insane efficiency, as he’s averaged 6.2 YPC this season.
• No QB has a better pass rush matchup this week than Tom Brady, based on the -9% average pressure rate over expectation between the TB offensive line and the Rams defensive line.

Pass Rate Over Expectation

Quick Analysis

• No team has been more pass-happy since Week 4 than Tampa Bay, posting a league-leading 13.9% pass rate over expectation. The pass volume will be there for Tom Brady.
• The absence of Ja’Marr Chase didn’t result in Cincinnati abandoning their recent pass-heavy tendencies, as they led the league in PROE in Week 8 (13.9%). It’s easy to see that continuing, regardless of Chase’s status, as Joe Mixon is averaging a pitiful 3.3 YPC.
• Arizona and Atlanta are the premier pass funnels this season, allowing +9.1% and +6.4% pass rates over expectation, respectively. Expect a volume boost for both Geno Smith and Justin Herbert.
• Miami has posted a +9.1% pass rate over expectation in Tua Tagovailoa’s four full games this season – a mark that would rank 3rd-best over the full year. It will be interesting to see if they remain pass-happy while playing the Bears, the league’s premier run funnel by PROE allowed (-6%).

Graham Barfield’s Pace of Play Model

Quick Analysis

• It’s a bit surprising to see Las Vegas vs. Jacksonville rank so highly here, but it further increases my enthusiasm in Trevor Lawrence, who has a great matchup alongside a top-3 game by pace of play.
• Pace concerns certainly bring merit to fading Tua Tagovailoa, especially with Chicago being the premier run funnel as we noted above.
• And I think the same can be said for Aaron Rodgers, who is initially projecting as one of the highest-owned QBs of the Week 9 main slate thanks to Green Bay’s 26.5 implied team total. If this ends up being a slow-paced game with a below-average PROE, I think it makes more sense to attack the Green Bay RBs, at least in DFS.

Dank Stats

• Atlanta may not need to put the ball in the air this week. Atlanta runs zone rush concepts on a league-high 63.9% of rush attempts (averaging 5.0 YPC); the Chargers give up a league-worst 6.6 YPC on zone rush attempts.

• As we alluded to earlier, Cordarrelle Patterson has a pristine matchup this week, and he leads the league in percentage of carries to game 5 or more yards (51.7%).

• Chase Claypool has seen 51% of his targets on two routes – Hitch (26.5%) and Out (24.5%). I think (hope?) we will see Justin Fields target Claypool more often downfield compared to his usage with the Steelers this season. Fields has targeted a receiver running a Go route on 14.6% of his pass attempts, which is the second-highest rate in the league, behind only Russell Wilson (18.8%).