DFS Early Look: Week 10

Week 9 of the NFL regular season just wrapped up, and that means Week 9 is just around the corner. As my readers likely know, DFS is the best version of fantasy football, and since DraftKings and FanDuel have released their Week 10 prices, it’s time to track down the obvious values and best plays.

Here are the plays that jump out to me for Week 10 DFS:

Justin Fields, QB, Chicago Bears (VS. DET)

DraftKings: $6,500 (QB6) | Fanduel: $8,300 (QB3)

Justin Fields is playing as well as any QB in fantasy football. No QB has averaged more FPG over their last four games than Fields’ 27.6, and that impressive score has been largely thanks to his rushing. Fields is averaging 12.2 carries per game, 102 YPG, 8.5 YPC, and 0.8 rushing TDs per game since Week 6.

So, with Fields currently running the ball at a level only rivaled by the greatest QB fantasy season ever, it’s obvious he’s going to be popular in a Week 10 matchup with the Detroit Lions. This season, the Lions are the 3rd-best schedule-adjusted matchup for opposing QBs, allowing +5.6 FPG. Combine that with a game total (48.5) that’s the 2nd-highest of the Week 10 main slate, and it’s easy to get behind Fields as one of the top QB values of the week.

Saquon Barkley, RB, New York Giants (VS. HOU)

DraftKings: $8,600 (RB1) | Fanduel: $9,500 (RB1)

There isn’t a better matchup for opposing RBs than the Houston Texans, as they allow +5.7 schedule-adjusted FPG – 26% more than the No.2 team. Houston is also giving up the 2nd-highest YPC (5.6), the 2nd-highest explosive play% (7.7%), and the most yards after contact (759). But on top of the elite matchup, the Giants are 6.5-point favorites. Barkley has only been a favorite 11 times in his career, but he’s averaged a very impressive 26.5 DraftKings FPG and 23.2 Fanduel FPG in those 11 games – exceeding 32.0 DraftKings points in 36% of those games. Expect Barkley to be chalk given the Giants' status as heavy favorites combined with the premier matchup for RBs.

Derrick Henry, RB, Tennessee Titans (VS. DEN)

DraftKings: $8,300 (RB2) | Fanduel: $9,400 (RB2)

Derrick Henry is the entire Titans offense right now, earning an insane 58% of the team's total offensive yards over their last three games. And it isn’t difficult to see a continuation of that in Week 10 with the Titans listed as 3.0-point favorites against Denver. Since 2019, Henry averages 25.2 FPG in wins but just 13.2 FPG in losses. So the Titans 59% implied win probability this week likely provides the needed game environment for Henry to smash.

Plus, the Denver defense profiles as the 2nd-worst matchup for opposing QBs, and the overall worst matchup for opposing WRs by schedule-adjusted FPG allowed, while being only a slightly below-average matchup for opposing RBs.

That should funnel even more touches Henry’s way, as we know the Titans want to avoid a pass-centric approach at all costs. Henry won’t approach the massive ownership of a player like Saquon Barkley in a superior matchup, but he still offers slate-breaking upside and has arguably the best touch floor of any player on the slate.

Travis Etienne, RB, Jacksonville Jaguars (@ KC)

DraftKings: $7,100 (RB9) | Fanduel: $8,000 (RB6)

Etienne is a clear bell cow after earning at least 27 opportunities in his last two games. And it was encouraging to see him dominate the backfield pass game role in Week 9, earning just 2 targets but posting a 67% route share – suggesting he will still be able to post strong fantasy performances in the face of negative gamescript.

And I would expect a high likelihood of negative gamescript for Jacksonville this week, as they are 10.0-point underdogs against Kansas City, the largest spread of the Week 10 main slate. If Kansas City has a glaring defensive weakness, it’s RB receiving. The Chiefs have allowed the most receptions to opposing RBs (60), the 3rd-most receiving yards (428), and the 2nd-most schedule-adjusted receiving FPG (+4.4).

So, Etienne is locked into a workload that should guarantee him at least 20 touches, and in the likely event his team falls behind, he will have an outstanding matchup against a defensive unit that has been lit up by RBs through the air this season. He’s still about $800 too cheap on DraftKings given his current workload, and that should make him one of the most popular RB options of Week 10.

Tyreek Hill, WR, Miami Dolphins (VS. CLE)

DraftKings: $9,100 (WR1) | Fanduel: $9,000 (WR3)

Hill is currently on pace to break the NFL’s single-season receiving yardage record, exceeding 140 receiving yards in over half his games this season. No player has as many 12 target games this season as Hill does (6), and that elite volume has been crucial to his dominance this season.

In Hill’s 19 career games with 12 or more targets, he averages an absurd 28.5 FPG – a mark that’s 10% better than the greatest fantasy receiving season of all-time (2021 Cooper Kupp). And Hill has earned 12 or more targets in four of his five games with a fully healthy Tua Tagovailoa (80%), compared to just 13 of 60 regular season games with Patrick Mahomes (22%).

And we can’t forget Hill’s slate-breaking upside. He’s responsible for the best, 5th-best, and 16th-best DraftKings performances by a WR since 2019. So not only is his floor secure with league-leading volume, but he’s also the most likely WR to post a score you need to take down a tournament.

Hill’s Week 10 matchup with Cleveland profiles as a plus spot, as the Browns have largely funneled production to outside WRs, ranking as the 3rd-toughest schedule-adjusted defense against opposing slots, but as the 5th-best matchup for opposing outside WRs. Since Hill runs 57% of his routes outside compared to just 36% in the slot, it’s reasonable to assume this is a favorable matchup.

Hill is still cheaper than 2021 Cooper Kupp was in his final 10 games of 2021 ($9,280 average DraftKings salary), and that’s a discount I will continue taking advantage of in a plus matchup.

Allen Lazard, WR, Green Bay Packers (VS. DAL)

DraftKings: $6,100 (WR14) | Fanduel: $6,700 (WR14)

Lazard has earned at least 7 targets in his last five games, averaging 16.4 DraftKings FPG – a mark that ranks 10th-best among slate-eligible WRs. Lazard’s consistency in the passing game will be needed more than ever in Week 10, as Green Bay will likely be without Romeo Doubs and Christian Watson, who have combined for a 21% target share this season.

Assuming Doubs and Watson miss Week 10, that leaves Green Bay with Lazard, Sammy Watkins, Samori Toure, and Amari Rodgers as their top 4 wideouts (the latter two in that group have caught just 12 total passes across their careers). With depth that thin as 5.5-point underdogs, who will step up and catch passes? The answer is Allen Lazard, and despite the tough matchup, I would expect him to be one of the more popular WR options on both sites given how shallow this receiving corps is.

Rondale Moore, WR, Arizona Cardinals (@ LAR)

DraftKings: $5,200 (WR25) | Fanduel: $5,800 (WR25)

Moore has logged four games this season where he has run most of his routes from the slot, averaging 9.0 targets per game, 69.5 receiving YPG, and 15.6 DraftKings FPG. 15.6 DraftKings FPG would rank 9th-best among slate-eligible WRs, presenting obvious value at Moore’s WR25 salary on both sites.

LAR does rank as a particularly tough matchup for opposing slot WRs, giving up the 3rd-fewest schedule-adjusted FPG (-3.8). That said, Greg Dortch manned the slot the last time these teams met and put up 9 catches on 10 targets for 80 yards, scoring 17.0 fantasy points – suggesting Arizona will still send ample volume Moore’s way despite the tough matchup. In terms of expected target volume per dollar of salary, Moore is probably the top WR play of the slate.

Tyler Higbee, TE, Los Angeles Rams (VS. ARI)

DraftKings: $3,600 (TE8) | Fanduel: $6,000 (TE5)

Higbee is running incredibly cold, failing to exceed 4.0 fantasy points in his last three games. Still, we can’t forget that before Week 9, Higbee ranked 3rd in targets per game (7.3) and 4th in XFP/G (12.1). And there may not be a better matchup for Higbee to correct course than against Arizona.

Arizona is allowing an absurd 19.8 FPG to opposing TEs this season (most), while giving up the most receptions (66), the 2nd-most receiving yards (694), and a league-leading 7 TDs. Even adjusting for their schedule, they still rank as the top matchup, allowing the most FPG above an opponent's average per game (+6.1). It’s tough not to love Higbee in the best possible matchup for TEs at his cheapest price point since Week 17 of 2020.