We have some fun plays this week that we need to attack with a quarterback that could potentially lose his job to a freshman, a running back in a three-way backfield split and an intriguing touchdown prop that will land us a higher payout on both UnderDog and PrizePicks. It should be an exciting weekend, so let’s dive into the selections!
This is just the start of the content we’ll have for the CFB season, as every week, we’ll have:
DFS (Articles & Livestream)
Player Props Articles
Matchup Reports
Projections
Rankings
and MORE!
Take advantage of the CFB benefits included in the expanded College Football Package in 2024!
Now, back to why you clicked on this article: player props. There’s plenty of value on the board, so let’s hop right into our top plays!
PrizePicks
PrizePicks is a fantasy site and app that allows you to construct a card of between 2-6 plays. With so many selections available, the board has a ton of value if you know where to look.
Here’s where some of that value is:
Payton Thorne Less than 218.5 passing yards - PrizePicks (QB, Auburn)
Very little analysis will come with this selection, and the hope is that this article will be published before the site removes this line. There’s a better chance that this Payton Thorne line becomes void than him going over 218.5 passing yards. On Wednesday, coach Hugh Freeze commented on Thorne’s status: "He thinks he’s going to be fine. But he was not ready to play yesterday at practice, for sure.” Even if Thorne is healthy, there were indications we could see multiple underclassmen quarterbacks on the roster get playing time on Saturday with the Auburn season in the dumps.
Denzel Boston Higher than 56.5 receiving yards - Underdog (WR, Washington)
Denzel Boston has been very good to us this season, so let’s revisit the well where we’ve found success. Last week was his lowest output of the season, targeted just three times for minimal yardage against Penn State. There’s no fault in that. It was on the road at Happy Valley in a blowout situation. Washington is back home in a crucial matchup this week to secure a sixth win and bowl eligibility. Why is that important? Boston has flown over this number in all but one home game this season, with the one occurrence back in September when Washington blew out Eastern Michigan. It’s unlikely this matchup with UCLA is a blowout risk, with the line being just -4.5. We also like over 0.5 rush + rec TD with the juice, as Boston accounts for 60% of the team’s receiving touchdowns for the year.
Tre Wisner LOWER than 65.5 rushing yards - PrizePicks (RB, Texas)
Can you name who the Texas starting running back is these days? Because I can’t. Tre Wisner rushed for a grand total of zero yards on four attempts last week vs. Florida. Not because he lost his job — it had more to do with Texas being up 35-0 at halftime, but Jaydon Blue and freshman Jerrick Gibson saw more run on Saturday. Is it a blip on the radar or a sign of things to come with Wisner? We’ll always lean under on a running back in a potential three-way split, and the Arkansas run defense is stout up front, ranking 13th in EPA per run play and 7th nationally in rush D success rate.
J.J. Jones MORE than 53.5 receiving yards - PrizePicks (WR, North Carolina)
Folks will ignore J.J. Jones’ line this week after seeing the goose egg he put up against Florida State in Week 10. That was a matter of circumstance and game script as it was the Omarion Hampton day, accounting for five touchdowns. The box score doesn’t show that Jones still played his full allotment of snaps, as he was on the field over 85% of the time. Jones hit this over in four of his last six games and is facing possibly the worst pass defense in the country, as Wake Forest is 134th in pass D success rate and 127th in EPA per pass play. This North Carolina - Wake Forest matchup has all sorts of shootout potential.
Tyler Shough MORE than 2.5 passing touchdowns - Prizepicks (QB, Louisville)
This play is as strong as you can get with the juice you’re getting on both PrizePicks and Underdog to get us a higher payout. The Stanford pass defense is abysmal, ranking 114th in pass D success rate and 119th in EPA per pass play defensively. Tyler Shough and his collection of receivers should have their way with this Cardinal secondary, and if you prefer the safer option with Tyler Shough’s passing yards, we’re more than okay with that choice, too. But here’s why we’re attacking this prop specifically. Five of the last six quarterbacks to face Stanford this season have thrown at least three touchdown passes. It feels like a risk worth taking. FWIW - the Fantasy Points projection has his passing yards prop at 293 this week, so that line also looks good.
Additional plays we like but do not love
QB Isaac Wilson, Utah - Less than 187.5 passing yards
QB Rocco Becht, Iowa State - Higher than 248.5 passing yards
WR Will Pauling, Wisconsin - Higher than 3.5 receptions
RB Abu Sama, Iowa State - Lower than 49.5 rushing yards
WR Jared Brown, South Carolina - Less than 28.5 receiving yards
WR Trent Walker, Oregon State - More than 5.5 receptions
TE Luke Hasz, Arkansas - Higher than 23.5 receiving yards
RB Jaydon Blue, Texas - More than 2.5 receptions
