Scott Barrett's Week 15 DFS Breakdown

What is this column? Each week I’ll be listing the best and most-interesting plays of the week, grouped by position, and ranked and tiered in some sort of descending order. Keep in mind, we’re looking only at the players available on the main slate for both DraftKings and FanDuel.

This article is long. It’s going to be long every week. Ideally, it’s all you should need to know to be able to profit playing DFS in any given week.

Be sure to also watch our DFS Preview livestream every Friday at 3PM EST. Be sure to get in our Discord — if you’re not in there already, you’re missing out on a lot of important news updates as well as personal guidance and advice from our experts. And, most importantly, be sure to check back on Sunday mornings for the “Sunday Morning Update” – basically a TLDR version of this piece along with any injury-related updates we might need.

Anyway, let’s dive in…

TLDR: Too Long, Didn’t Read

Update: I’m currently projecting Myles Gaskin to play, but this tweet suggests he still might not suit up. If he’s out, QB Tua Tagovailoa and his pass-catchers will get a significant bump up my projections. If he’s active and RB Malcolm Brown is out, I’ll like Gaskin a little more. I’ll have something more definitive for you tomorrow in the Sunday Update.

Notes: This week is an extremely tricky slate. A lot of late-breaking news made this article extremely difficult to write. Still, I think there’s a massive edge this week. More so than most weeks. I think this will be an especially great week for GPP players, and especially for MME specialists. I feel really good about my grasp on this slate as a whole, or at least my grasp relative to the rest of the industry… There’s still a lot of variables left unknown that can swing a player 15-20% in either direction. Hopefully we’ll get that news soon, and I can discuss it tomorrow in the Sunday Update… Due to all of the Friday news, I didn’t spend too much time going into specifics on how to approach this slate from an ownership-perspective (how to gain leverage on the rest of the field). I’ll try to incorporate more of that in my article tomorrow…

Mea Culpa: Some of the numbers (rankings of salaries and various stats among slate-eligible players) may still be off, due to the fact that the NFL inexplicably moved multiple games on the middle of a Friday. Yes, I’m still mad.

Running Backs

James Robinson, RB, Jacksonville Jaguars

[DK: RB18, FD: RB15]

Carlos Hyde is officially out due to the concussion protocol. Dare Ogunbowale is the only other RB to receive a snap, and he’s played on just 6 snaps over the team’s last 5 games. So, yeah, Robinson should be a full-on bell cow this week. And he’s looking like one of the best plays of the slate…. Oh, and for tournaments (warning: he’s going to be super highly-owned) he’s best utilized stacked with Jacksonville’s DST.

From Jake Tribbey’s DFS Values:

Is James Robinson finally free? With Urban Meyer gone, it’s certainly more likely.

Robinson saw a pitiful 6 touches last week, but he did play on 64% of the team’s snaps – his highest mark since Week 6. It’s certainly hard to trust JRob given his recent performances, but without Urban Meyer, he may very well return to the JRob of Weeks 3 through 6, when he averaged 19.8 touches per game, 17.3 XFP per game, and 21.7 FPG. Among slate-eligible RBs, those numbers would rank 4th, 4th, and 1st. And yet, he’s $525 cheaper than he was from Weeks 3 through 6, priced as the RB22 on DraftKings. And on Fanduel, he’s $700 cheaper than his average price over that same stretch, clocking in as the RB19 (by salary) on the slate.

And this is probably the best game environment and matchup JRob has had all season. Jacksonville may actually win this game. In fact, they’re projected to win (-5.0), favored for the first time since Week 1. And it’s a near-perfect matchup on paper. The Texans rank 2nd-worst in YPC allowed (4.91) and worst in rushing YPG allowed (128.9). Over the past two weeks, they’ve given up 355 rushing yards and 5 rushing touchdowns to opposing RBs.

Michael Carter, RB, New York Jets

[DK: RB31, FD: RB18]

Michael Carter is slated to return from a “low-grade high ankle sprain” and seems pretty badly mispriced as just the RB38 on DraftKings ($4,700).

Pros: He’s no doubt mispriced… Over his last 5 games, Carter averaged 14.7 carries, 7.3 targets, 20.5 XFP, and 18.7 fantasy points per four quarters. For perspective, either of the latter two numbers would lead all slate-eligible RBs. And yet he’s just the RB38 by pricing… He was never quite a bell cow, but was the clear leadback, playing on 62% of the snaps, while handling 72% of the carries and 53% of the targets out of the backfield… And maybe he’ll receive a larger share of the passing-down work this week, after Ty Johnson dropped 3 targets last week…

Cons: To be fair, Tevin Coleman missed a bunch of these games with a hamstring injury, and he’s in line to be cleared for action in Week 15. And Carter’s best games came with Mike White who targeted RBs at an obscenely high rate… Maybe he’s eased back into playing time with a reduced workload coming off of injury… No Jets RB reached even 11.0 fantasy points in the 3 weeks he sat out… The Dolphins are a tough matchup for opposing RBs, ranking 5th-best in schedule-adjusted FPG allowed (-2.6)… And, most importantly, the Jets are an inept and dysfunctional mess, projected to score only 16.5 points this week (worst).

Carter no doubt carries plenty of risk, likely too much to be considered viable in cash games. But if he resumes his old role (update: which he will, see below), he’s clearly one of the most mispriced players of the slate. And that makes him an incredible tournament play.

Devonta Freeman, RB, Baltimore Ravens

[DK: RB17, FD: RB18]

Freeman isn’t at all exciting, especially with Baltimore’s implied point total dropping to 18.5 (from 25.5), but he is a decent value on a gross and thin slate for RBs.

From Start/Sit:

Don’t look now, but Devonta Freeman may still be a thing. He’s hit at least 12.0 fantasy points in 5 of his last 7 games. And since Week 9, he’s clearly been the team’s lead back. Over this span, he averages 14.5 carries, 4.7 targets, 75.0 YFS, 15.5 XFP/G, and 14.2 FPG, ranking top-20 in each stat. But over the last 2 weeks, he’s been upgraded to bell cow-status, handling 66% of the snaps, 88% of the carries (13.5 per game), and 88% of the targets out of the backfield (6.5 per game). In a perfectly neutral to slightly below average on-paper matchup, we like him as a mid-range RB2 this week.

Ezekiel Elliott, RB, Dallas Cowboys

[DK: RB2, FD: RB12]

Wes Huber made an argument for Elliott as his single favorite RB-play of the slate (on FanDuel). I don’t know if I can get on board with that. He’s clearly not healthy, and RB Corey Clement was definitely working in as early as the first quarter last week. (Oh, and now LT Tyron Smith is out as well.) But, he is, I suppose, a solid leverage play at a reduced price-tag, with decent touchdown-upside. And, Huber has been nailing uber- low-owned contrarian plays at an absurd hit-rate this season, so I always have a hard time arguing against him.

From Wes Huber’s Advanced Matchups:

Entering a Week 8 road showdown with Minnesota averaging 20.1 FPG, Ezekiel Elliott broke a four-game streak of over 100 total yards and at least a TD. While the suggestion is that he first injured his knee the following week against Denver, I have a lingering belief that it was the Vikings game where the ailment first occurred. Since then, his scoring average has declined by 35% (13.0 FPG). It’s completely understandable that headlines popped up calling for Tony Pollard – the NFL leader with 5.63 YPC – to supplant Zeke. Interested in three reasons why that is just not an option? Here you go:

1. Elliott is one of the top-five RBs in NFL history at identifying, picking up the blitz
2. Whereas most players considered among the top-10 at their position would rather miss games when injured, Ezekiel passed along that he would need to be physically removed from the field before missing any games – a commitment to his team that we just do not see enough of these days
3. The outstanding efficiency from Pollard has benefited by being the lightning to Zeke’s thunder

In addition, the narrative calling for Elliott’s job to the benefit of Pollard may see a complete reversal now that Pollard is doing everything he can to get back on the field from tearing the plantar fascia in his left foot. Travis Etienne suffered a Lisfranc fracture that may threaten to keep him out through the 2022 season. The last thing the Cowboys want is to see Pollard rushing through his recovery to get back on the field and doing further damage to the injury. The plantar fascia supports the foot to prevent the bones in the front of the foot from extending too far from the heel. If this occurs, the dreaded Lisfranc or Jones fracture can result. You have to appreciate Pollard’s dedication, but he simply needs more time for that tear to mend.

Do not read into Corey Clement taking one more carry than Zeke last week. Dallas jumped out to an 18-0 lead by the end of the first quarter. At that point, Elliott outsnapped Clement 18-to-2, and took five carries vs. one for Clement. And it was the fact that the ‘Boys lightened his workload the rest of the game that aided Zeke in making the following declaration:

For Week 15, Elliott will face a Giants defense allowing the eight-most rushing YPG (125.0), 11th-most YPC (4.4), 12th-highest rushing first down rate (25.3%), seventh-most red zone (RZ) touches/game to RBs (4.77), and seventh-most FPG (26.2). It should also be noted that Zeke posted his best game of the season against New York in Week 5 (28.2 FPs). I’m going to take the risk that Ezekiel is speaking the truth. And how can we not love RB25 pricing on FD this week? It’s a pricing discount that’s going to result in a high ownership rate that should be focused toward Cash-Single-Entry (SE) games. But I’m also going to have GPP exposure on DK at his RB8 pricing, with tremendous upside.

Chase Edmonds, RB, Arizona Cardinals

[DK: RB11, FD: RB14]

Update: HC Kliff Kingsbury said he expects Conner to play. I still like Edmonds a little bit as a high-risk / high-reward contrarian play for tournaments. But there’s not much of an argument beyond that now.

It’s starting to look unlikely James Conner (ankle) will be able to suit up this week. And even if he’s active, there’s a good chance he’s seriously limited and playing only sparingly. Obviously, this makes Chase Edmonds a far more appealing play.

Wes Huber argued (here) that he expects Edmonds to cede a portion of the early-down and short-yardage work to Eno Benjamin and (if healthy) Jonathan Ward. But I think I disagree with that.

Although it’s just his first game back from injury, reports indicate he was already pretty close to full health last week. Further, like HC Sean McVay, HC Kliff Kingsbury has a history of employing a bell cow whenever he’s lost one of his top-2 RBs to injury.

- Over Arizona’s last 5 games, without Edmonds, Conner averaged 17.4 carries, 5.4 targets, 20.9 XFP/G, and 25.6 FPG on an 85% snap share. Those numbers ranked 10th-, 8th-, 5th-, 2nd-, and 1st-best over this stretch.

- In the one game Kenyan Drake missed last season (Week 7), Edmonds played on 96% of the team’s snaps, earning 25 of 26 carries and 3 of 4 targets out of the backfield.

- In Week 7 2019, David Johnson suffered an injury on his first touch of the game. (This was before Kenyan Drake joined the team.) And Edmonds totaled 35.0 fantasy points on the back of 27 carries, 4 targets, and a 94% snap share. The next week Edmonds himself suffered an in-game injury, but had played on over 90% of the snaps up until that point (late in the 3rd quarter).

Arizona has the highest implied point total of the slate (30.0), and they’re favored by 12.5 points. And they’re up against the freaking Lions, who are giving up the 4th-most schedule-adjusted FPG to opposing RBs (+6.0).

If Conner misses, I’m going all-in on Edmonds. If Conner suits up, I’m probably off of him.

Other / Notes

Since Week 2 (and excluding Week 10 due to injury), Cordarrelle Patterson averages 19.8 FPG and 16.1 XFP/G. If over the full season, those numbers would rank 5th- and 11th-best among RBs… Or, among all slate-eligible RBs, 2nd- and 6th-best. But he’s priced as just the RB5 (DK) and RB9 (FD) of the slate… He’s coming off of a season-high 20.7 XFP, on the back of 16 carries (season-high) and 6 targets. That’s encouraging, but, at the same time, Mike Davis inexplicably tied him in targets, and while running more routes… (I have no idea what to make of this.)… On-paper, Patterson leaves behind a bottom-5 matchup against Carolina (-4.4), in favor of a top-10 matchup against San Francisco (+1.5)…

It’s a committee backfield in Tennessee, but D’Onta Foreman seems to have the early-down role locked in. Through the first three quarters of last week’s 20-0 blowout victory, Foreman handled 13 of 20 carries and 0 of 3 targets out of the backfield (44% snap share). (Dontrell Hilliard and Jeremy McNichols evenly split the remainder of the work.)… He’s just the 25th highest priced RB on both slates. That might make him seem like a slight value in a neutral matchup, but this is no neutral matchup… The Steelers gave up a 27-205-2 line to Dalvin Cook last week (7.6 YPC), gifting him some of the biggest holes I've ever seen a RB run through. And two weeks before that Joe Mixon managed a 28-165-2 line. And the week before that Austin Ekeler scored 41.5 fantasy points. They rank worst in YPC allowed over the full season (4.93), and 3rd-worst in rushing YPG allowed (115.2). Over the last 5 weeks they rank worst in YPC allowed (5.47), worst in rushing YPG allowed (152.2), and worst in FPG allowed to opposing RBs (37.0).

Elijah Mitchell (concussion/knee) has been ruled out for Week 15, and that opens the door to Jeff Wilson leading the San Francisco backfield. So, in a backfield averaging 21.2 FPG, Wilson is an obvious value as the RB23 (by salary) on DraftKings and the RB20 on Fanduel, right?… Well, I’m not so sure, given that: he’s averaging just 3.2 YPC (on a team collectively averaging 4.3 YPC), he ranks 83rd of 90 qualifiers in PFF rushing grade (56.5), and he hasn’t scored more than 6.8 fantasy points in any individual game this season, despite 2 starts where he earned over 55% of the team’s snaps. Wilson is not playing well, and I’m pretty sure he’s still hurt, and to make matters worse, he’s completely uninvolved in the passing game (unlike last year), with just 3 total targets this season… Further, we should expect WR Deebo Samuel to continue to eat into his workload, as he’s averaging 6.8 carries and, more importantly, 1.0 carries inside the 10-yard-line over his last 4 games. For perspective, that’s 44% of the team’s total carries inside the 10-yard-line over this stretch… Sure, Wilson flashed a ceiling last year, averaging 27.8 DK FPG over his 4 best game. And that’s despite only starting in 3 games and exceeding a 50% snap share only 3 times. But, given his woeful inefficiency and the capped touchdown-upside (thanks to Samuel), he’s not the low-floor / high-ceiling play he was last year. His floor is subterranean and his ceiling doesn’t appear to me to be too much better than that. You can still play him in tournaments (the matchup, the spread, etc.) but I want no part of him in cash.

Myles Gaskin [RB16, RB13] is looking like a top value, and especially if RB Malcolm Brown is unavailable to play… Over his last 7 games (all without a healthy Malcolm Brown), he averages 17.8 carries and 3.7 targets per game, serving as the team's bell cow (76% backfield XFP share). Though granted, his production hasn’t been quite as good as his volume implies (13.3 FPG over this span)… Miami is favored by 9.5-points, behind a 25.25-point implied total (5th-most, 31% more than their per-game average) and the on-paper matchup is flawless. Against RBs, the Jets rank: worst in total FPG allowed (34.1, +3.8 more than next-closest), worst in rushing FPG allowed (20.2), 2nd-worst in receiving FPG allowed (13.9), 5th-worst in YPC allowed (4.58), and worst in schedule-adjusted FPG allowed (+11.3). That final stat is 43% more than the next-closest defense, 300% more than the defense ranking 5th-worst, and is the highest stat I’ve ever seen this far into a season.. In this same matchup 4 weeks ago, Gaskin scored 18.6 fantasy points on 23 carries and 4 targets…. He’s looking like a terrific value-play, though he’d be a much riskier play if Malcolm Brown suits up. We’ll see…

I’m not really on Najee Harris. Simply, the matchup is pretty brutal, and I’d rather be paying up for Davante Adams and / or George Kittle. But, admittedly maybe not. It’s a really gross slate, so why not pay for the one guy with a fairly high and guaranteed ceiling? Maybe that’s the right approach, but, personally, I’d rather be chasing value with the cheaper RB plays.

And my take on Joe Mixon is similar to Harris, only I like him significantly less. The matchup is brutal, and like I talked about last week, he seems massively gamescript-dependent, and Cincinnati is expected to lose this game (+3.0).

Javonte Williams averages 24.7 DK FPG over his last 3 games. And he’s hit 20 fantasy points in each of his last 2 games with Melvin Gordon. Gordon averages 16.8 FPG over his last 5 games, all with Williams. Although Williams is no doubt the superior back, I do prefer Gordon (if healthy), who has eclipsed Williams in XFP in each of their last 4 games together, averaging 17.2 (RB10) to Williams’ 13.2 (RB25)… Denver is favored, albeit just slightly (-2.5), and the matchup is strong. Cincinnati ranks 7th-worst in schedule-adjusted FPG allowed to opposing RBs (+1.9). Though they’ve been better of late and far more susceptible through the air than on the ground, so this matchup ranks closer to neutral in my eyes… And in that case it’s hard to get too excited about a 50/50 to 55/45 committee backfield. If both are active, I’d take a healthy Gordon over a healthy Williams, but I don’t really want to play either one. However, if one of the two misses, the other would become a near must-play, locked into the sort of workload Williams saw in Week 13 — 23 of 27 carries and 9 of 10 targets in a 22-9 loss.

David Johnson would be an intriguing value if Rex Burkhead sits out. But it’s still a little early to squander more of my precious word count on that yet. I’ll have an update for you tomorrow if that’s the case.

A.J. Dillon might be my favorite leverage play of the slate (off of Davante Adams chalk) and I think there’s a good chance we get him at low-ownership, even though he’s also a pretty solid play on paper (just barely missed the TLDR on DraftKings)… Aaron Jones is dealing with a knee injury and an illness, practicing only in a limited capacity and sitting out on Thursday. Over the last 2 weeks, Dillon has averaged 18.0 carries, 2.5 targets, and 3.5 opportunities inside the 10-yard-line per game. Contrast that to Jones’ 8.0, 2.0, and 1.0 (respectively)… The Ravens are a pretty brutal matchup for RBs, and especially RBs on the ground, but the game environment is excellent. The Packers are favored by 6.5-points, either up against backup Tyler Huntley (1 TD, 1 INT, 6.2 YPA, 9 sacks, 3 fumbles in about 7.5 quarters of play) or an immobile Lamar Jackson (who ranks as PFF’s worst-graded passer since Week 9)… I especially like him for tournaments stacked with Green Bay’s DST.

Wide Receivers

Davante Adams, WR, Green Bay Packers

[DK: WR1, FD: WR1]

With Cooper Kupp now off of the main slate, Adams is probably the highest-owned WR of the slate, and rightfully so.

From the Week 15 XFP Report:

Adams has seen at least 9 targets in 10 of his last 11 games. He’s hit the 100-yard bonus in three consecutive games, averaging 30.7 DK FPG over this span. He now ranks behind only Cooper Kupp in FPG (21.0) and behind only Kupp and Diontae Johnson in XFP/G (19.7).

And he gets an absolute dream matchup this week. Baltimore ranks 6th-worst in FPG allowed to opposing outside WRs (23.1), and they’re giving up a league-high +8.5 schedule-adjusted FPG to opposing WR1s over their last 5 games. Over their last 7 games, opposing WR1s are averaging 21.0 FPG against them. Though those WRs collectively average just 14.6 FPG in all other games.

And Baltimore’s secondary is undeniably worse now, after losing Marlon Humphrey in Week 14. After already losing Marcus Peters in training camp, they’re starting backups Anthony Averett and Chris Westry on the perimeter. But CB Tavon Young has been excellent in the slot; Baltimore is giving up the 5th-fewest FPG to opposing slot WRs (10.5), That implies a much tougher matchup for Allen Lazard (20.9 fantasy points last week), and a laughably lopsided matchup for Adams on the outside.

Bonus: The Ravens are also giving up the most FPG to opposing WRs on deep passes (13.6). That’s good news for Adams, who ranks 6th in receiving yards gained on deep targets, though we also shouldn’t forget about Marquez Valdes-Scantling who ranks 4th among all WRs in deep targets per game (2.4) and runs 71% of his routes from the outside. Over the last 4 weeks, and among all slate-eligible WRs, MVS ranks 17th in targets per game (8.0), 3rd in air yards per game (120.0), 15th in XFP/G (15.1), and 21st in FPG (12.1). He’s the 36th most expensive WR of the slate on DraftKings ($4,600). And stacking him with Adams has been positively correlated over the past two seasons (+0.09).

Diontae Johnson, WR, Pittsburgh Steelers

[DK: WR4, FD: WR7]

(If we exclude a few games from 2020, when Johnson suffered an injury in the first half, and that one game he was inexplicably benched for drops, then…)

Johnson has now seen double-digit targets in an astounding 20 of his last 22 games with Ben Roethlisberger under center. Over this span, he averages 11.9 targets and 19.5 FPG. Over the past two seasons, those numbers would rank best and 3rd-best among all WRs.

This year, Johnson ranks 1st in targets per game (12.5), 5th in air yards per game (115.4), 2nd in end zone targets per game (1.1), 6th in deep targets per game (2.2), 1st in XFP/G (22.0), and 6th in FPG (18.4). He has not only seen a notable improvement in target volume, but his role has dramatically changed, leading to a massive improvement in target quality. In comparison to last season, he’s seen a significant increase in air yards per game (up +50%), end zone targets per game (+81%), and deep targets per game (+71%).

And Johnson not only leads all players at all positions in XFP/G (22.0), but his 22.0 XFP/G ranks 2nd-most by any WR since at least 2008, just 0.2 XFP/G behind Calvin Johnson’s 204-target 2012 season.

Johnson is seeing the best volume of any player in fantasy, but he’s also unrivaled in terms of consistency (both production and volume). He has hit at least 20.5 XFP in 10 of 12 games. (Kupp is the only other WR averaging over 20.5 XFP per game, another historically great mark, and he’s hit 20.5 XFP in just 7 of 13 games). Johnson has seen double-digit targets in 11 of 13 games. And he’s scored at least 15.0 fantasy points in 10 of 12 games.

And look for this trend to continue for at least one more week. In Week 15, he gets a Tennessee defense that ranks 2nd-worst in schedule-adjusted FPG allowed to opposing WRs (+7.41, 6th-worst in schedule-adjusted FPG allowed to WR1s (+2.0), and 8th-worst in FPG allowed to opposing outside WRs (22.7). And they rank worst in FPG allowed on deep passes (10.6) and 2nd-worst in YPG allowed on deep throws (64.8) – an important note given Johnson averages 2.3 deep targets per game (3rd-most among all WRs) and 23% of his total fantasy production has come on deep throws.

DeVante Parker, WR, Miami Dolphins

[DK: WR42, FD: WR24]

My only addition to the analysis further below is that Wes Huber also loves the coverage shell matchup for Parker (against the Jets’ Cover-3-heavy scheme):

From Jake Tribbey’s DFS Values:

Among all slate-eligible WRs, Parker ranks 12th in targets (8.7), 18th in XFP/G (14.4), and 21st in FPG (12.5). And yet, he ranks just 49th in salary on DraftKings this week ($4,300).

Every game Parker has played this season has come with Jaylen Waddle (8.8 targets per game, 15.3 FPG) in the lineup. Waddle is currently on the reserve/COVID-19 list and his status for Week 15 is uncertain. Should he miss, that leaves 44% of Miami’s WR targets and 46% of their WR fantasy production unaccounted for.

If Miami is missing the vast majority, or even all, of their RB production from the first 14 weeks of the season, then a pass-heavy approach is all but guaranteed. And a pass-heavy approach without Jaylen Waddle would almost certainly mean a massive target share for both Parker and TE Mike Gesicki.

The potential for double-digit targets at a $4,300 DraftKings salary is enough to make any player a value. But the Jets are PFF’s 3rd-worst graded pass coverage unit (41.0 team coverage grade), and they’ve been vulnerable to opposing WR1s as of late, allowing the 5th-most schedule-adjusted FPG (+2.2) over their last 5 games.

Parker is an obvious value even if Waddle plays (which he absolutely could), given the 12.5 FPG he’s averaged in his 6 games with Waddle would translate to a 2.90X DraftKings value this week. But if Waddle sits, it would be hard to consider Parker anything other than the best WR value on the slate in a compelling matchup.

Gabriel Davis, WR, Buffalo Bills

[DK: WR50, FD: WR62]

The only thing I’ll add to the analysis below is that in addition to a phenomenal scoring environment (Buffalo’s implied team is 27.5), Davis also appears to have an extremely favorable matchup, with Stephon Gilmore likely to shadow Stefon Diggs (and hence why he’s not being written up this week). From Wes Huber:

“With Donte Jackson landing on IR prior to Week 14, Carolina re-signed Rashaan Melvin – released earlier in the season – and paired him with C.J. Henderson to man the right sideline. We still need more coverage data collected on Melvin. For Henderson, he’s allowing 1.94 YPCS and 0.48 FP/CS, averages that would pace all outside CBs for the most, if qualified… The Panthers are using the sixth-highest rate of Cover 1 and have been a weekly threat to use a Cover 1 rate approaching half of their plays. While Davis doesn’t have the type of counting stats of Diggsy due to previously being the fourth wideout option, he has posted the 10th-highest TPR (129.6) and eighth-most YPT (11.3) during his 29-game career against Cover 1.”

From the Week 15 XFP Report:

Emmanuel Sanders suffered a knee injury last week, which is likely to cause him to miss this week’s game against the Panthers. That injury capped Sanders at just 32% of the team’s snaps, but catapulted Davis into a season-high 80% route share. And Davis proceeded to hit season-highs by a number of other metrics.

He scored 15.3 fantasy points (season-high) on 9 targets (season-high). 2 of those targets came in the end zone and 3 came inside the 5-yard-line, netting 18.6 XFP. That wasn’t just a season-high, but it also ranked 18th-most among all WRs on the week.

So, now, the question is — what’s the expectation for Davis this week without Sanders?

Despite the handicap of his part-time role, Davis has touchdowns in back-to-back games, and a 100-yard in Week 10 (39% route share). He’s run a route on only 40% of the team’s dropbacks this season, and he’s averaging 3.4 targets, 6.9 XFP, and 7.2 FPG. So, without Sanders, do we just double those numbers to get 14.4 FPG (~WR15 on the slate)? Or do we assume he gets 100% of the work? For posterity, that would come out to 8.5 targets, 18.0 XFP, and 17.3 FPG (~WR6).

Or do we just look at his numbers from last year? Davis has played on at least 66% of the snaps only 9 times (and only once in 2021). In those games, Davis averaged 5.6 targets and 10.4 FPG (~WR34).

Or do we treat him as exactly we would Sanders, who ranked 38th among all WRs in XFP/G?

Or is it exactly the sort of numbers he put up last week — 18th in XFP (18.6), 27th in fantasy points scored (15.3).

I’m not sure. But any way you want to look at it, it’s clear he’s a massive and glaring value on DraftKings this week, priced as just the WR60 ($3,700).

A.J. Green, WR, Arizona Cardinals

[DK: WR29, FD: WR28]

The only thing I’ll add to the analysis below is that Wes Huber likes Green a lot more than Tribbey seems to. Per Huber, Detroit runs out Cover-2 and Cover-4 at top-10 rates, and Green has been dominant against both coverages this year. And the CB matchup is strong, running nearly 90% of his routes against Amani Oruwariye who ranks bottom-15 of 50-qualifying CBs in PFF Grade.

Oh, and Zach Ertz was added to the injury report on Friday with a hamstring injury and is now listed as questionable.

From Jake Tribbey’s DFS Values:

DeAndre Hopkins is out, likely for the remainder of the season, with a torn MCL. Hopkins also missed Weeks 10 and 11 this season, and in those games A.J. Green recorded a rather pedestrian 6.0 targets per game and 6.6 FPG. But, those games came without Kyler Murray, and the offense as a whole struggled massively, averaging just 16.5 PPG (11.7 PPG lower than their season-long average) and 291.0 YPG (83.8 YPG lower).

With Kyler healthy, we can absolutely expect a stronger offensive output this week (slate-leading 30.25 implied team total) relative to Week’s 10 and 11. More importantly, Hopkins was this offense’s No. 1 option in the end zone and on deep balls, with 11 total end zone targets and 1.3 deep targets per game. But Green is right behind him in both categories, currently 2nd on the team with 8 total end zone targets and 1.3 deep targets per game. So he would be the most likely beneficiary of Hopkins' vacated end zone and deep targets given he’s already being used in that capacity.

And while the Lions have been stingy against outside WRs (18.6 FPG allowed, 6th-fewest) they are incredibly vulnerable to the deep ball, allowing a league-leading 66.8 YPG and the 5th-most FPG (9.3) on deep passes this season.

Plus we can’t forget Green earned 11 targets, 152 air yards, and scored 20.2 DraftKings points on the back of 21.0 XFP (11th-most) just last week. And, across the full season, has seen the best volume among the WRs on the team, averaging 10.6 XFP/G to Kirk’s 9.6.

I’m not convinced Green is a strong-enough value to warrant being played in cash, given the massive amount of WR value that’s opened up this week. But he does carry elite TD and big play equity, which makes him a compelling tournament play, especially given the Cardinals 30.25 implied team total.

Laquon Treadwell, WR, Jacksonville Jaguars

[DK: WR63, FD: WR49]

I don’t really have any interest in playing Treadwell, but here’s the argument for him…

From Jake Tribbey’s DFS Values:

I [Jake Tribbey] wrote up Treadwell as a value last week, and despite his role staying the same and having his best fantasy performance of the season (10.8 fantasy points), his price actually decreased on DraftKings.

Over the last three weeks, Treadwell is tied for the team lead in targets per game (6.3), ranks 1st in yards per game (61.0), and ranks 2nd in routes per game (34.0). Among all WRs, those numbers would rank 35th, 45th, and 28th over the full season. The offense may be terrible, and Treadwell himself may not be very good (career 0.96 YPRR), but he’s locked into a full-time role with a consistent target floor (5 targets in each of his last 3 games) which isn’t something you could say about nearly any other sub-$3,800 DraftKings WR, outside of Gabriel Davis.

This matchup is on the favorable side, albeit just slightly. Houston is giving up the 12th-most schedule-adjusted FPG to opposing WRs (+1.4), and the 10th-most FPG to outside WRs (23.0). But, the Jaguars are 5.0-point favorites, just the 2nd time they’ve been favored all year, so there is certainly a risk they take a more run-heavy approach in this contest. And there’s also the risk Treadwell was one of Urban Meyer’s ‘guys’ and could see a reduction in playing time with Meyer out of the building.

But if Treadwell’s role is anything like what we’ve seen over the last 3 weeks, he’s an obvious value. He carries more downside risk than Gabriel Davis, but ownership should reflect that. If you are looking to pivot off the Davis chalk, Treadwell is undoubtedly your best bet.

Russell Gage, WR, Atlanta Falcons

[DK: WR16, FD: WR19]

My only addition to the analysis below is that Wes Huber also backs this take, writing him up here, expanding on how this also a very favorable coverage shell matchup for Gage. Still, he’s a GPP-only play and not one super high on my radar.

From the Week 15 XFP Report:

Gage was a popular add off the waiver wire a week ago, and it wasn’t hard to see why. Following an impressive performance in Week 12 (7 targets, 18.2 fantasy points), Gage exploded in Week 13 (12 targets, 24.0 fantasy points). But he wasn’t quite as productive last week, catching 4 of 6 targets for 64 yards. Though, in his defense, Carolina is a brutal matchup for slot WRs (where he runs 51% of his routes). And actually, the majority of the opponents he’s faced have been exceedingly stout against the slot. In fact, Gage might have had the toughest strength of schedule of any player in fantasy.

Only 3 of his 10 games have come against opponents who did not rank top-12 in FPG against slot WRs. In those games, he averages 7.0 targets and 16.1 FPG. Or, 8.3 targets and 18.1 FPG if you want to count Week 13 as a top-20 matchup. (Wes Huber would. Tampa Bay’s slot CB Sean Murphy-Bunting sat out of their Week 2 matchup, but was eviscerated by Gage in Week 13.)

And this week, Gage gets arguably his most favorable matchup yet. The 49ers rank 5th-worst in FPG allowed to opposing slot WRs (14.9), but they’re tough just about everywhere else. They rank 11th-best in FPG allowed to outside WRs (19.5) and 3rd-best in FPG allowed to opposing TEs (8.3). So, I’d expect another underwhelming performance from Kyle Pitts, and for more volume to be funneled in Gage’s direction.

He’s not a tremendous value, priced as the WR21 on DraftKings ($5,800), but he’s a decent upside-play for tournaments. And I expect him to go under-owned.

Cowboys WRs

Last week, without Keenan Allen, Los Angeles’ WRs went off on the Giants; Jalen Guyton scored 17.7 fantasy points on 3 targets. Josh Palmer scored 17.6 on 7 targets. And Mike Williams dropped 12.1 on 6 targets. You don’t need me to tell you Dallas’ WR trio is significantly better than this group.

I like Amari Cooper [WR11, WR9] the least of the bunch, and he’ll likely draw the same matchup Williams had last week (shadow coverage against James Bradberry), which is to say it’s easily the toughest matchup of the group.

CeeDee Lamb [WR5, WR6] has led Dallas’ WRs in XFP in 9 of his 11 healthy games this year, averaging 17.5 XFP/G. That ranks 8th-most among WRs, sandwiched in between Keenan Allen (19.0) and Stefon Diggs (17.1). For perspective, Amari Cooper ranks 37th (12.9).

So, this doesn’t seem like a WR1A / WR1B situation. To me, Lamb is the team’s clear WR1. He should lead the team in XFP and production this week, and by a wide margin. With CB Adoree Jackson likely out, CB Aaron Robinson (3rd Round rookie who barely saw the field until Week 12) kicks outside to work against Michael Gallup [WR19, WR22]. That leaves an even lesser talent in 2020 UDFA Jarren Williams (47 career snaps) to cover Lamb.

Lamb has run 82% of his routes from the slot over the last two weeks, up from 28% across his first 10 games. The Giants rank middle-of-the-pack against outside WRs (21.1 FPG, 19th-best), but 6th-worst against slot WRs (16.0). And they’ve given up 20.1 FPG to opposing slot WRs over the last two weeks.

I don’t really want to play Gallup, but I can make a pretty persuasive argument for him. His matchup is extremely soft, though not quite as soft as Lamb’s. And he definitely looks like a top volume-related value, quietly ranking 8th among all slate-eligible WRs in XFP/G (16.3), but just 25th (DK) and 28th (FD) in salary.

Granted, he’s also been far less productive than that, ranking only 32nd in FPG (10.9)… But in his defense, he’s also dealt with some brutal luck. Despite only playing in 6 games, he ranks 12th among all players in fantasy points lost on plays negated due to penalty (11.2). If we add those numbers back to his total, he’d be averaging 12.8 FPG (17th-best on the slate). And (due to injury) he played on only 57% of his team’s snaps in his first two games. So, adjusting for injury and penalty luck, he’s actually averaging 14.6 fantasy points per four quarters. That would rank 13th-best on the slate, just ahead of Cooper (14.0).

I think Lamb is a great play, though Gallup’s existence probably does cap his upside a tiny bit. And Gallup is a little better than a “fine” play, and is also unlikely to catch any ownership.

Bengals WRs

Ah, yes, the weekly Tee Higgins [WR10, WR11] vs. Ja’Marr Chase [WR6, WR5] debate…

I suppose neither one is really a must-play, given the low total (20.5) and the fact that their QB is playing with a dislocated pinkie to his throwing hand (though he played great last week). But, at the same time, either one could prove to be one of the best plays of the slate.

Chase will be running most of his routes against Ronald Darby (5th-worst of 70 qualifying CBs by fantasy points allowed per snap in coverage) while Higgins gets Patrick Surtain (36th-best) on the plurality of his routes. So, just play Chase? He clearly has the softer matchup on paper. But I don’t think it’s that simple. I think the better question is, does Denver bring in safety help to stop Chase on every single one of his routes? They should. And that would then leave Higgins in the more advantageous matchup. But, unfortunately, we don’t know and won’t know the answer to that question.

Higgins has hit 100 yards in 3 straight games, averaging 9.7 targets and 25.9 DK FPG (low of 19.4) over this span. He’s just the WR13 and WR14 of the slate by pricing.

Chase scored 25.3 fantasy points last week, but averaged just 10.6 FPG over his prior 5 games.

I am still viewing Chase as the team’s WR1, who has bested Higgins in XFP in 4 of their last 6 games. Though, granted it certainly seems a lot closer now. And he’s also $600 (DK) and $700 (FD) more expensive than Higgins.

Ultimately, Higgins is the better value and probably the better play, but this still feels like a toss-up to me. Higgins is probably the better “value”, but his value seems less important and less scarce on this slate than Chase’s sky-high slate-breaking upside. Chase has been a cat-hair away from absolutely smashing the slate several weeks (every week?) now, lamentably dropping a number of high-leverage targets. But it’s good he’s getting those targets, right? And that’s something that’s going to eventually and inevitably regress to the mean, right?…Right?!?

Other / Notes

If Jaylen Waddle manages to suit up, he’s a top-6 WR-play. I wrote him up here.

We talked about Marquez Valdes-Scantling in the Davante Adams section. I still really like him for Aaron Rodgers dub-stacks. But he’s officially listed as questionable, dealing with a back injury, so make sure you keep an eye on that.

Deebo Samuel isn’t an amazing play on paper, but he does offer nearly unrivaled (especially on this slate) face-melting upside. And thus needs to be seriously considered and demands some degree of exposure, regardless of whatever you think about him… TE George Kittle averages 13.5 targets and 39.9 DK FPG over his last 2 games, and now Samuel is seemingly chopped liver. Kittle will be maybe the single highest-owned player of the slate, or at least he should be. And Samuel could go severely lower-owned as a result… San Francisco’s top-scoring receiver each week averages 25.8 FPG (2nd-most among all teams). That’s probably Kittle again this week. But what if it’s not?… Yes, Samuel’s pass-catching role has declined in recent weeks (in terms of targets only but not routes) in favor of an increased role as a runner, which is less valuable for fantasy. But what if this was just because he’s been banged up of late? Or just variance? What if he manages to combine both roles this week? You know, like he did in Week 10 (with Elijah Mitchell active), when he scored 20.7 receiving fantasy points and 9.6 rushing fantasy points… Samuel averaged 9.6 targets and 20.2 receiving FPG across his first 9 games. He averages 6.8 carries and 13.0 rushing FPG (low of 9.6) over his last 4 games. And that’s about the only argument I need. But, on top of that, the matchup is near-perfect; Atlanta ranks 2nd-worst in FPG allowed to opposing outside WRs (24.3).

Brandon Aiyuk might also make sense as a leverage play in that same pillow-soft matchup, but it’s a little harder to justify at his salary. And especially relative to his ceiling, or lack thereof.

D’Andre Swift is out. T.J. Hockenson is out. And Amon-Ra St. Brown has seen 12 targets in back-to-back games. Over this span, he’s averaging 12.0 targets (29% target share), 0.5 carries, 80.5 YFS, and 20.1 FPG. He’s run a route on 93% of the team’s dropbacks over this span, with 62% of those routes coming from the slot… He gets a neutral matchup this week (Arizona), but is only sort of in play following a price-bump putting him at WR26 / WR28… He’s a Gallup-tier value. Though, probably, his greatest advantage is being the glaringly most-optimal bring-back on Arizona stacks.

I can’t ever seem to get Brandin Cooks right. He flopped in 4 straight matchups, and then had a bottom-3 on-paper matchup last week. Except, for the first time of the year, they moved him to the slot full-time (62%, up from 30%), flipping it into a top-3 matchup. They’d be smart to do that again this week, away from Shaquill Griffin's shadow coverage. Because otherwise it’s probably a bottom-10 matchup. But, yeah, I probably won’t be playing him… If we knew they wouldn’t move him to the slot, WR Nico Collins would become a far more attractive play.

Nico Collins (DK: $3,500) is fresh off of a 10-target game, in which he recorded 5 receptions for 69 yards. He has a great matchup this week, and especially if Houston doesn't move Brandin Cooks to the slot (though that’s what they did last week for the first time all year) — Jacksonville is giving up the 5th-most schedule-adjusted FPG to opposing WR2s (+2.2),

We mentioned A.J. Green’s soft CB matchup, but Antoine Wesley’s CB matchup would be significantly softer, running nearly all of his routes against CB Saivon Smith, who only joined the Lions this week and hasn’t played a single snap this year (and has only played on more than 12 snaps once in his career). Without DeAndre Hopkins (and Kyler Murray) in Weeks 9-11, Wesley ran a route on 76% of the team's dropbacks, averaging 2.7 targets, 2.3 catches, and 35.3 YPG. He’s minimum priced on DraftKings ($3,000)… But then again, maybe HC Kliff Kingsbury decides to play slot WR Rondale Moore full-time instead of Wesley this time around. That, of course, wasn’t the case when Hopkins previously missed time (54% route share for Moore), but who knows what he’ll do now with Hopkins confirmed out for the full year. In that case, Christian Kirk [WR23 / WR20] would get to take advantage of this dream matchup. And even if not, Kirk was already a highly enticing upside-play. Even if Wesley plays over Moore this week, Kirk will still run nearly 60% of his routes from the outside, and so he’ll catch some of that soft matchup too. And I could also see HC Kliff Kingsbury featuring him as the WR1, and getting creative, moving him around the line of scrimmage to take advantage of matchups. Using him in a way he can’t with Green, who just stays stationed to his side of the field… So, yeah, Wesley has a decent ceiling for his price-tag, but maybe the threat of Moore makes him unplayable. But both Green and Kirk are terrific plays. I was much higher on Green earlier in the week, and though that’s still probably my lean, it’s admittedly much closer now. (Update: Zach Ertz was added to the injury report on Friday with a hamstring injury and is now listed as questionable.)

Braxton Berrios, Keelan Cole, or Jamison Crowder? Yeah, I don’t want any part of the Jets. If forced to pick one (I presume for a bring-back), I’d lean towards Berrios who saw 10 targets last week on just a 47% route share. He earned more targets from the slot than Crowder on 21 fewer routes. Crowder has the more dependable role (94% route share), but, I think, if I want a Jet WR, I just want the cheapest one. Both get favorable matchups this week. The Dolphins are a top slot funnel, surrendering a league-high 127 targets to slot WRs (15 more than next-closest) and the 5th-most FPG to slot WRs (16.8). But, again, it’s the Jets. I don’t even think you need a bring-back on Miami stacks.

Albert Wilson is another somewhat viable punt if Jaylen Waddle sits out, sliding into his natural position in the slot. He earned 8 targets in his last game (on just a 61% route share), and the Jets are a top-10 slot funnel on paper. (I talked about this here.) Early-career Wilson was a dynamic play-maker capable of housing 5-yard dump-offs seemingly at will. But I’m not so sure about this current iteration.So, that’s my primary concern — does he have the upside and specifically the touchdown-upside to warrant consideration on a slate with DeVante Parker and Gabriel Davis available to us at a similarly minimal price-tag?

Rashod Bateman isn’t really in play at all, but I’d like him more than Marquise Brown if Tyler Huntley starts.

I’m not going to have any exposure to WR Ray-Ray McCloud, but I did make a(n) (somewhat conspiratorial) argument for him here.

Tight Ends

George Kittle, TE, San Francisco 49ers

[DK: TE1, FD: TE1]

WR Deebo Samuel has seemingly been demoted to pseudo-RB duties, averaging 6.8 carries and just 3.0 targets per game over his last 4 games. And he’s likely to reprise that role again this week, with RB Elijah Mitchell out.

In the interim, Kittle has stepped in and apparently re-assumed his role as the team’s true alpha WR1. And on a level (literally) never before seen from an NFL TE. Over the last 2 weeks Kittle averages 13.5 targets (35%), 11.0 catches, 166.0 yards, 1.5 touchdowns, and 39.9 DK FPG (low of 37.1). And he’s now hit at least 13.0 fantasy points in 6 of his last 7 full and healthy games, or 16.0 in 5 of 7, averaging 21.8 DK FPG over this stretch.

Even just 19.0 DK FPG from a TE at a $7,500 / $7,800 salary makes him arguably the most valuable player on the slate. Heck, maybe any slate, not just this particularly gross one. (Even ignoring Kittle’s intra-positional advantage, Stefon Diggs is $200 more expensive than Kittle on DraftKings despite averaging fewer FPG.)

But this recent hot-streak means Kittle has, what we in the industry like to call, massive “bury you”-upside. After back-to-back 35-plus fantasy point games, there’s just absolutely no way you can fade him in cash. If forced to choose I’d rather play Kittle than Davante Adams, though ideally you’re playing both. He’s arguably the single-best play of the entire slate, and especially now with WR Cooper Kupp no longer playable.

I suspect Kittle is going to be uber-chalk this week, and I still expect to be massively over-exposed relative to the rest of the field. And then, on my non-Kittle lineups I’ll get creative with how I’m leveraging off of him (probably by playing Deebo Samuel).

Zach Ertz, TE, Arizona Cardinals

[DK: TE4, FD: TE9]

Ertz, like Mike Gesicki, has a TE-designation for fantasy but is basically an oversized full-time slot WR for the Cardinals, running a route on 82% of the team’s dropbacks with 69% of his catches coming from the slot over the past 6 weeks. He’s no doubt a strong value on FanDuel, but he was also added to the injury report on Friday with a hamstring injury and is now listed as questionable. That’s far from ideal. But here’s what jake Tribbey had to say:

Since joining the Cardinals in Week 7, Zach Ertz has averaged 1.3 red zone targets per game (leads team), 10.3 XFP per game, and 11.2 FPG. Among slate-eligible TEs this season, all of those numbers rank 5th-best. So, right off the bat, Ertz is an obvious Fanduel value as the TE9 by salary.

He draws a plus matchup in the best scoring environment of the week (30.0 implied team total), with Detroit giving up the 6th-most schedule-adjusted FPG (+4.2) to opposing TEs over their last 5 games. And we can’t forget, DeAndre Hopkins (MCL) is leaving behind 6.4 targets per game and 1.3 red zone targets per game. So, Ertz could be in line for a massive volume boost on top of the already strong matchup and slate-best implied team total. He’s certainly not a cash game play, but at least on Fanduel, he’s a clearly underpriced pivot off of Mark Andrews and George Kittle, who are sure to be higher-owned. With that said, he carries added downside risk after being added to the injury report on Friday with a hamstring injury.

Pat Freiermuth, TE, Pittsburgh Steelers

[DK: TE9, FD: TE9]

From the Week 15 XFP Report:

Since Week 6, Pat Freiermuth ranks 2nd in end zone targets per game (0.88), 11th in targets per game (6.0), 9th in XFP/G (10.9), and 5th in FPG (12.3). Among all slate-eligible TEs, those numbers rank 2nd-, 7th-, 6th-, and 3rd-best.

He has 6 touchdowns over his last 7 games, and has also hit double-digit fantasy points in 6 of his last 8 games. Keep in mind, TE Eric Ebron played in 3 of these 8 games. In the 5 games Ebron has missed, Freiermuth has averaged 13.7 FPG (3rd-most among slate-eligible TEs), and his route share jumped from 57% to 73%.

He gets a bottom-10 on paper matchup (but matchups are fairly overrated for TEs, unless at the extreme polar ends) and ranks as just the 10th most expensive TE of the slate on DraftKings ($4,500). He’s one of the better values at the position this week.

Other / Notes

With Jaylen Waddle likely out, and leaving behind 11.5 targets per game in his wake (over the last 7 weeks), Mike Gesicki [TE7 / TE4] is arguably now a top-3 TE-play of the slate on both sites. The Jets rank 6th-worst in schedule-adjusted FPG both over the full season (+2.6) and 6th-worst over their last 5 games (+3.1). Gesicki is the 8th-most expensive TE on DraftKings this week ($5,000), but he ranks 5th in targets per game (7.0), 5th in XFP/G (11.8), and 9th in FPG (10.4). He’s fresh off of a 11-target game, and the Jets are one-week removed from a game in which Dallas Goedert tagged them for 31.5 DK fantasy points on just 6 targets, but Gesicki aslo hasn’t been very productive in recent weeks. He averages just 7.6 FPG over his last 6 games, with a high of only 11.6 fantasy points.

Mark Andrews [TE2, TE2] is seriously in play regardless of Lamar Jackson’s status. In the 2 games Tyler Huntley played, Andrews averaged 12.0 targets and 21.9 FPG. Huntley has targeted him on 22% of his throws, which would rank behind only George Kittle’s 24%. Among all slate-eligible TEs, Andrews ranks 1st in XFP/G (17% more than Kittle) and 2nd in FPG (16.2), which ranks behind Kittle’s 16.9 but is 29% more than the next-closest TE… He’s cheaper but nowhere near as strong of a play as Kittle. Still, “the chalkiest TE of the slate” has flopped almost every week thus far, he is a strong leverage play off of Kittle, and we know he (like Kittle) can offer a sky-high ceiling (44.7 fantasy points in Week 5)… His on-paper matchup is perfectly neutral.

Quarterbacks

In cash I’m either playing Kyler Murray or Tua Tagovailoa on DraftKings. And Murray or Jimmy Garoppolo on FanDuel.

For tournament QBs, I’ll have something more in-depth for you tomorrow in the Sunday Morning Update. But in the meantime, Wes Huber threw out a bunch of names in his Advanced Matchups column. And Johnny, Graham, and I threw out a few more on our livestream.

Tua Tagovailoa, QB, Miami Dolphins

[DK: QB9, FD: QB6]

Tagovailoa is a very strong value and a very strong play. And it doesn’t hurt that Wes Huber also loves the coverage shell matchup for him. That said, he’s not nearly as strong of a play as he was earlier in the week, after losing WR Jaylen Waddle and getting back RB Myles Gaskin from COVID. And I don’t think enough people are going to adjust to that. (QB Ben Roethlsiberger is a strong pivot for tournaments.)

From Jake Tribbey’s DFS Values:

The Miami Dolphins have a 25.5-point implied total this week against the Jets. For perspective, that’s 31% more than their per-game average this season. Does that mean we should be bumping our fantasy expectations for various Dolphins players by 31%? And if so, who?

In full games started and finished, QB Tua Tagovailoa is averaging 19.1 FPG. Or, 19.6 fantasy points per four quarters. Among all slate-eligible QBs, those numbers would rank 8th- or 7th-best. And yet, he’s just the QB12 by pricing this week ($5,700) on DraftKings. So, already a value in a neutral matchup, but this matchup almost couldn’t be any better. The Jets rank 3rd-worst in schedule-adjusted FPG allowed to opposing QBs (+2.4) and dead-last in opposing passer rating (107.9). The Jets have allowed an opposing QB to reach 18.5 fantasy points against them in 9 of their last 10 games (21.0 FPG), though only one of these QBs ranks top-10 in fantasy points scored.

Tagovailoa is clearly the best value, and the optimal cash game QB play on DraftKings. But he profiles as more of a tournament play on Fanduel where QB pricing is more condensed and he’s the QB8 by salary.

Kyler Murray, QB, Arizona Cardinals

[DK: QB2, FD: QB1]

From Start/Sit:

Kyler Murray is back? Kyler is definitely, 100%, fully back.

Since returning from injury in Week 13, Murray averages 25.1 FPG, including 8.5 rushing attempts and 12.0 rushing FPG over this span. Across his prior 5 injury-marred games, he averaged just 6.4 rushing attempts and 1.5 rushing FPG.

Vegas expects Arizona to score 30.25 points this week (most by +1.75) and win by 13. Detroit is giving up more production to RBs than QBs, but that’s mostly due to gamescript. They’re actually far more inefficient against the pass, ranking 2nd-worst in passing fantasy points allowed per pass attempt (0.53) and 4th-worst in opposing passer rating (101.3). Though, against RBs, they rank 17th-best by YPC allowed (4.28).

Typically the massive spread would be a significant concern, but Murray has historically smashed in similar environments. In his 7 career games the Cardinals have been favored by 7.0 or more points, he averages 26.7 FPG. In the 15 career games the Cardinals have had an implied point total over 27.0, he averages 25.2 FPG.

Even without WR DeAndre Hopkins, Murray is an easy top-3 option this week.

Aaron Rodgers, QB, Green Bay Packers

[DK: QB3, FD: QB4]

Rodgers is Wes Huber’s favorite QB-play of the slate. And, while, I don’t like him quite that much (worrying Baltimore isn’t able to keep things close), I do really like him. And especially for tournaments if stacked with both Devante Adams and Marquez Valdes-Scantling, who we talked about earlier. (That’s a positively correlated stack, and also, probably the only way for Rodgers to post a tournament winning score.)

From Wes Huber’s Advanced Matchups:

No Marlon Humphrey, no Marcus Peters, no Jimmy Smith, and no Chuck Clark. When the evaluation of this matchup for Aaron Rodgers was initiated, attacking absences in the secondary weren't even factored as compelling reasons to spend QB5/QB10 dollars on Mr. Rodgers. When Rodgers put 341 passing yards, four TDs vs. 0 INTs, and 32.6 FPs on the Bears last week, Chicago utilized the seventh-highest rate of Cover 6. A Week 15 date with the Baltimore Ravens will present Rodgers with a matchup that goes far beyond measly secondary personnel. The Ravens are using the ninth-highest rate of Cover 1 and 10th-highest of Cover 6 this season. Yes, Baltimore is granting the fourth-most FPG through the air to QBs (16.4), second-most passing YPG (266.1), third-most YPA (7.44), the highest completion rate on 20-plus throws (19.9%), and the highest completion rate on 40-plus throws (4.63%).

Those allowances are great, but the true appeal is found in Rodgers’ scheme history.

When he’s gone against Cover 1 during the last three seasons, he’s thrown 27 TDs vs. 3 INTs, manufactured the fourth-most FP/Db (0.53), and the fourth-highest passer rating (107.7). It doesn’t stop there. When working against Cover 6 during the same stretch of time, he’s constructed 0.42 FP/Db (second-most) FP/Db and pairs that with a 107.1 passer rating (third-highest).

Jimmy Garoppolo, QB, San Francisco 49ers

[DK: QB8, FD: QB13]

Garroppolo ranks as the top-QB and No. 2-overall value on FanDuel, per the DFS SuperModel. Here’s what Jake Tribbey had to say earlier in the week:

Since Week 8, Garoppolo averages 18.4 FPG, which would rank 7th-best among slate-eligible QBs. Despite this, Jimmy G is the QB13 (by salary) on Fanduel, $100 less than Mike Glennon and tied with Davis Mills.

But what makes Garoppolo really stand out this week is his matchup with Atlanta. The Falcons have given up the most schedule-adjusted FPG to opposing QBs this season (+3.3). And they are giving up the 2nd-most passing FPG (17.7), 5th-most passing fantasy points per pass attempt (0.49), and the 6th-highest passer rating to opposing QBs (100.6). Atlanta’s coverage unit has certainly struggled this season, as they rank 4th-worst in Football Outsiders pass defense DVOA (22.7%). Plus, San Francisco is without their workhorse RB (Elijah Mithcell), and boasts an impressive implied team total of 28.0, the 3rd-highest mark of the slate.

So, really anyway we choose to look at this matchup, it’s an outstanding one for Garoppolo and the 49ers passing attack. And if we simply add Atlanta’s schedule-adjusted FPG (+3.3) to Garoppolo’s FPG since Week 8 (18.4), we get approximately 21.2 fantasy points – a mark which would easily make Garoppolo the best QB value on Fanduel this week (3.24X) in our projections. That may be an overly friendly estimate, but I think it’s absolutely fair to call Jimmy G a top value in Fanduel cash games this week.

Josh Allen, QB, Buffalo Bills

[DK: QB1, FD: QB2]

I don’t like Allen quite as much as Murray or Rodgers. Chiefly, I think the foot injury massively dings his fantasy expectation. Still, he’s in play for tournaments, stacked with at least Gabriel Davis and maybe one other receiver.

From Wes Huber’s Advanced Matchups:

If you were able to catch Buffalo at Tampa Bay last week, you had the pleasure of watching the game of the week… With TB building a 24-3 lead at halftime, Josh Allen tossed for 130 yards, zero TDs, one INT, a 58.3 passer rating, and only 8.5 FPs. We can give all of the credit to halftime adjustments by OC Brian Daboll and DC Leslie Frazier, or we can attribute the comeback to the actual source.

Up to that point, the Bucs remained true to their rotation of the fourth-highest rate of Cover 2, ninth-highest of Cover 3, and 12th-highest of Cover 4. While coming out for the second half, it was announced that an illness would prevent Jamel Dean from playing the rest of the game. Unless Tom Brady was removed from the offense, how could the absence of a single player, to be clear, other than the GOAT, single-handedly lead to Buffalo very nearly overcoming a 21-point deficit? It’s high time the populus begins to understand that Dean is no mere mortal. When Dean is on the field, the entire right sideline is eliminated as an option for the opposing offense. He’s cutting off the oxygen to his coverage with 0.72 YPCS (seventh-fewest), 0.16 FP/CS (third-fewest), 0.11 AY/CS (12th-fewest), and a 59.7 TPR (fifth-lowest). It’s extremely important to remember that some of the other outside corners among the very elite, i.e., A.J. Terrell, Casey Hayward Jr., etc., play on teams with lackluster offenses. Nobody should attempt to condescend their coverage metrics, but life is quite different for those of the elite corners that play for elite offenses, i.e., Dean, Jalen Ramsey, Tre'Davious White, etc. They have their coverage put to the test nearly every week of the season as opponents attempt to keep pace with the scoring.

When Dean left the field, the entire strategy of the Tampa Bay defense had to be rewritten. Rather than following the Cover 2, 3, and 4 rotation that had confounded Allen up to that point, DC Todd Bowles was forced to go Cover 1-heavy in order to account for each of the Bills’ dangerous receiving weapons. During the next two quarters, Allen passed for 175 yards, two TDs, zero INTs, a 105.6 passer rating, and 27.6 FPs – 76% of his total. How can we use this information to our advantage? The Panthers are using the sixth-highest rate of Cover 1 and have been a weekly threat to use a Cover 1 rate approaching half of their plays. And Carolina has delivered 15.0 pure passing FPG to QBs over the last four weeks. With 24 TDs vs. 10 INTs against Cover 1 the last three seasons, Allen is generating 0.41 FP/DB (15th-most), and the highest passing yardage rate among qualified QBs (34%).